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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 16, 2025

[ Wednesday, October 15, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, October 17, 2025 ]

DAY 16 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/17/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.06°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.56°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.31°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.329
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 255

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.39 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.75 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 78
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 345.04 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 96

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-17 04:00:03OBSERVATION2026169644.0634.5599639.309980003.683.68FF12.06255.0678345.03906033777 00.328744190916516 24215220DRYL
2025-10-17 00:00:01FORECAST2026169644.31233.38638.8490003.683.68FF12.312255.31278345.0390603377700.337206781973771624215220DRYL
2025-10-16 12:00:01FORECAST2026169645.10432.46838.7860003.683.68FF13.104256.10478345.0390603377700.364326609908151624215220DRYL
2025-10-16 08:00:01FORECAST2026169646.38232.59439.4880003.683.68FF14.382257.38278345.0390603377700.409499752772081624215220DRYL
2025-10-16 04:00:02FORECAST2026169646.41832.46839.4430003.683.68FF14.418257.41878345.0390603377700.410792967259521624215220DRYL
2025-10-16 00:00:01FORECAST2026169647.04832.50439.7760003.683.68FF15.048254.04878345.0390603377700.433569069007661624215220DRYL
2025-10-15 20:00:01FORECAST2026169646.50833.67440.0910003.683.68FF14.508254.50878345.0390603377700.414030218476521624215220DRYL
2025-10-15 16:00:01FORECAST2026169647.2135.07841.1440003.683.68FF15.21255.2178345.0390603377700.43946481419981624215220DRYL
2025-10-15 12:00:01FORECAST2026169645.69835.36640.53200.0003937010.0003937013.683.680393701FF13.698253.69878345.0390603377700.385130857039241624215220DRYL
2025-10-15 08:00:02FORECAST2026169644.72635.16839.9470003.683.68FF12.726253.72678345.0390603377700.351288291374961624215220DRYL
2025-10-15 04:00:06FORECAST2026169645.39234.98840.1900.0031496080.0031496083.683.683149608FF13.392254.39278345.0390603377700.374367945768511624215220DRYL
2025-10-15 00:00:02FORECAST2026169645.15834.86240.0100.0047244120.0047244123.683.684724412FF13.158254.15878345.0390603377700.366202523031021624215220DRYL
2025-10-14 20:00:02FORECAST2026169644.65434.73639.69500.0070866180.0070866183.683.687086618FF12.654252.65478345.0390603377700.348823962755731624215220DRYL
2025-10-14 16:00:01FORECAST2026169645.12235.45640.28900.003937010.003937013.683.68393701FF13.122253.12278345.0390603377700.364951555986511624215220DRYL
2025-10-14 12:00:02FORECAST2026169645.12234.26839.6950003.683.68FF13.122253.12278345.0390603377700.364951555986511624215220DRYL
2025-10-14 08:00:01FORECAST2026169645.66234.46640.0640003.683.68FF13.662255.66278345.0390603377700.383859849771961624215220DRYL
2025-10-14 04:00:04FORECAST2026169645.93234.98840.460003.683.68FF13.932257.93278345.0390603377700.393421926677031624215220DRYL
2025-10-14 00:00:02FORECAST2026169647.04836.2341.6390003.783.78TF15.048263.04878345.0390603377700.433569069007661624215220DRYL
2025-10-13 20:00:03FORECAST2026169647.62436.2341.9270003.793.79TF15.624264.62478345.0390603377700.45458980012021624215220DRYL
2025-10-13 16:00:03FORECAST2026169648.05636.53642.2960003.793.79TF16.056265.05678345.0390603377700.470442562788071624215220DRYL
2025-10-13 12:00:01FORECAST2026169647.15636.71641.93600.003937010.003937013.793.79393701TF15.156264.15678345.0390603377700.437498006869711624215220DRYL
2025-10-13 08:00:02FORECAST2026169646.95836.7741.86400.003937010.003937013.83.80393701TF14.958263.95878345.0390603377700.430299943691141624215220DRYL
2025-10-13 04:00:03FORECAST2026169646.43636.26641.35100.0055118140.0055118143.793.795511814TF14.436263.43678345.0390603377700.41143993918741624215220DRYL
2025-10-13 00:00:02FORECAST2026169645.03235.94240.48700.0232283590.0232283594.024.043228359TF13.032262.03278345.0390603377700.361830443980231624215220WETMH
2025-10-12 20:00:02FORECAST2026169643.7935.43839.61400.0232283590.0232283593.923.943228359TF11.79254.7978345.0390603377700.319773607894621624215220DRYL
2025-10-12 16:00:01FORECAST2026169643.0734.50238.78600.0232283590.0232283593.943.963228359TF11.07254.0778345.0390603377700.296372487193851624215220DRYL
2025-10-12 12:00:02FORECAST2026169643.19633.69238.44400.0059055150.0059055153.883.885905515TF11.196252.19678345.0390603377700.300410767606781624215220DRYL
2025-10-12 08:00:01FORECAST2026169643.08834.19638.64200.0059055150.0059055154.024.025905515TF11.088252.08878345.0390603377700.29694786010961624215220WETM
2025-10-12 04:00:03FORECAST2026169643.35833.7138.53400.0062992160.0062992163.663.666299216FF11.358254.35878345.0390603377700.305639009206971624215220DRYL
2025-10-12 00:00:02FORECAST2026169640.87432.10836.49100.0137795350.0237795353.483.503779535FF8.874248.87478345.0390603377700.230318300378561614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-11 20:00:02FORECAST2026169639.27229.6634.46600.0137795350.0237795353.563.583779535FF7.272247.27278345.0390603377700.187842685848541614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-11 16:00:02FORECAST2026169639.41629.87634.64600.0137795350.0237795353.633.653779535FF7.416245.41678345.0390603377700.191450808123691614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-11 12:00:02FORECAST2026169640.7330.1135.4200.1145669910.1145669913.593.704566991TF8.73250.7378345.0390603377700.226293901282051614225235DRYL
2025-10-11 08:00:03FORECAST2026169640.87430.57835.72600.1114173830.1114173833.623.731417383TF8.874251.87478345.0390603377700.230318300378561614225235DRYL
2025-10-11 04:00:04FORECAST2026169641.12630.00235.56400.1118110840.1118110843.63.711811084TF9.126250.12678345.0390603377700.237456186789131614225235DRYL
2025-10-11 00:00:02FORECAST2026169640.65833.33236.99500.1562992970.1562992973.563.716299297TF8.658240.65878345.0390603377700.224296667043821614225235DRYL
2025-10-10 20:00:02FORECAST2026169641.52233.54837.53500.1527559880.1527559883.854.002755988TF9.522245.52278345.0390603377700.248913689425731614225235WETM
2025-10-10 16:00:02FORECAST2026169641.59433.49437.54400.153543390.153543393.733.88354339TF9.594244.59478345.0390603377700.251027989275841624225240DRYM
2025-10-10 12:00:03FORECAST2026169643.6132.21637.9130003.873.87TF11.61249.6178345.0390603377700.313850797537681624215220DRYL
2025-10-10 08:00:02FORECAST2026169643.14232.21637.6790003.813.81TF11.142251.14278345.0390603377700.29867703429521624215220DRYL
2025-10-10 04:00:04FORECAST2026169642.9831.78437.3820003.933.93TF10.98248.9878345.0390603377700.293503312189711624215220DRYL
2025-10-10 00:00:02FORECAST2026169643.0731.47837.2740003.623.62FF11.07236.0778345.0390603377700.296372487193851624215220DRYL
2025-10-09 20:00:02FORECAST2026169646.00432.55839.2810003.73.7FF14.004240.00478345.0390603377700.395982970229641624215220DRYL
2025-10-09 16:00:02FORECAST2026169646.45434.1640.3070003.533.53FF14.454246.45478345.0390603377700.412087151974321624215220DRYL
2025-10-09 12:00:02FORECAST2026169644.45633.65639.05600.0003937010.0003937013.33.300393701FF12.456241.45678345.0390603377700.342080116263541624215220DRYL
2025-10-09 08:00:02FORECAST2026169643.1632.0937.62500.0003937010.0003937013.413.410393701FF11.16238.1678345.0390603377700.299254440361691624215220DRYL
2025-10-09 04:00:04FORECAST2026169641.73831.31636.52700.0003937010.0003937013.493.490393701FF9.738232.73878345.0390603377700.255284888742871624215220DRYL
2025-10-09 00:00:02FORECAST2026169640.31631.49635.90600.1818898620.2018898623.63.801889862TF8.316231.31678345.0390603377700.214947364596281614225235DRYL
2025-10-08 20:00:02FORECAST2026169640.31631.35235.83400.1818898620.2018898623.793.991889862TF8.316230.31678345.0390603377700.214947364596281614225235DRYL
2025-10-08 16:00:03FORECAST2026169639.81231.38835.600.2842521220.2942521223.683.974252122TF7.812229.81278345.0390603377700.201589517107361614225235DRYL
2025-10-08 12:00:04FORECAST2026169641.7231.7336.72500.3283466340.5583466343.914.468346634TF9.72228.7278345.0390603377700.254750723231141624235260WETM
2025-10-08 08:00:03FORECAST2026169641.7231.7336.72500.3283466340.5583466343.784.338346634TF9.72221.7278345.0390603377700.254750723231141624235260WETM
2025-10-08 04:00:06FORECAST2026169642.63831.9137.27400.0767716950.3067716953.744.046771695TF10.638220.63878345.0390603377700.282719429679971624225240WETM
2025-10-08 00:00:04FORECAST2026169644.40231.96438.183000.243.874.11TF12.402216.40278345.0390603377700.340249479662721624225240WETM
2025-10-07 20:00:04FORECAST2026169644.40231.96438.183000.243.844.08TF12.402217.40278345.0390603377700.340249479662721624225240WETM
2025-10-07 16:00:03FORECAST2026169645.46432.88239.173000.363.593.95TF13.464215.46478345.0390603377700.376891954690771624225240DRYM
2025-10-07 12:00:05FORECAST2026169655.45436.2345.842000.023.943.96TF23.454222.45478345.0390603377700.728876634257181644215225DRYL
2025-10-07 08:00:03FORECAST2026169655.45436.2345.842000.023.923.94TF23.454223.45478345.0390603377700.728876634257181644215225DRYL
2025-10-07 04:00:04FORECAST2026169649.49636.08642.791000.144.1TF17.496214.49678345.0390603377700.523482474376161634225245WETMH
2025-10-07 00:00:02FORECAST2026169636.64428.54432.59400.0188976480.0688976483.944.008897648TF4.644205.64478345.0390603377700.129472764707661614215217.5WETM
2025-10-06 20:00:03FORECAST2026169636.64428.54432.59400.0188976480.0688976483.893.958897648TF4.644200.64478345.0390603377700.129472764707661614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-06 16:00:03FORECAST2026169635.63631.29833.467000.033.793.82TF3.636200.63678345.0390603377700.110826289541711614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-06 12:00:02FORECAST2026169637.7630.41634.08800.1555118951.0455118952.583.625511895TF5.76214.7678345.0390603377700.152523525442041614245270DRYH
2025-10-06 08:00:03FORECAST2026169640.08234.1637.12100.1555118951.0455118952.583.625511895TF8.082221.08278345.0390603377700.208682760319291614245270DRYH
2025-10-06 04:00:04FORECAST2026169644.94244.43844.6900.0074803190.3174803192.642.957480319FF12.942230.94278345.0390603377700.358718491154561624225240DRYM