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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, October 15, 2025

[ Tuesday, October 14, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, October 16, 2025 ]

DAY 15 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/16/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.12°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.447
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 15
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 275

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.25 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.75 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 79
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 346.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 95

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-16 04:00:02OBSERVATION2026159546.9999435.1199441.05994000.013.673.68FF14.99994274.9999479345.99810856281 00.4466182154557316 24215220DRYL
2025-10-16 00:00:01FORECAST2026159543.4327.2335.33000.013.673.68FF11.43271.4379345.9981085628100.322338683489421624215220DRYL
2025-10-15 12:00:01FORECAST2026159544.29427.4135.852000.013.673.68FF12.294272.29479345.9981085628100.351217068673831624215220DRYL
2025-10-15 08:00:02FORECAST2026159544.9627.28436.122000.013.673.68FF12.96272.9679345.9981085628100.374090103760581624215220DRYL
2025-10-15 04:00:06FORECAST2026159545.06828.45436.761000.013.673.68FF13.068273.06879345.9981085628100.377843868179721624215220DRYL
2025-10-15 00:00:02FORECAST2026159546.00429.89437.949000.013.673.68FF14.004273.00479345.9981085628100.4108247396771624215220DRYL
2025-10-14 20:00:01FORECAST2026159545.64429.24637.445000.013.673.68FF13.644271.64479345.9981085628100.398051088118611624215220DRYL
2025-10-14 16:00:01FORECAST2026159546.09431.60438.849000.013.673.68FF14.094272.09479345.9981085628100.414033555069931624215220DRYL
2025-10-14 12:00:02FORECAST2026159546.3131.85639.083000.013.673.68FF14.31272.3179345.9981085628100.421757768468191624215220DRYL
2025-10-14 08:00:01FORECAST2026159546.09433.63839.866000.013.673.68FF14.094274.09479345.9981085628100.414033555069931624215220DRYL
2025-10-14 04:00:04FORECAST2026159547.15633.69240.424000.013.673.68FF15.156276.15679345.9981085628100.452274344947621624215220DRYL
2025-10-14 00:00:02FORECAST2026159548.05634.75441.405000.113.673.78TF16.056280.05679345.9981085628100.485047061633661624225240DRYM
2025-10-13 20:00:02FORECAST2026159547.76835.34841.558000.123.673.79TF15.768280.76879345.9981085628100.474538110296191624225240DRYM
2025-10-13 16:00:02FORECAST2026159548.23636.10442.17000.123.673.79TF16.236281.23679345.9981085628100.491620899523761624225240DRYM
2025-10-13 12:00:01FORECAST2026159547.71436.06841.891000.123.673.79TF15.714280.71479345.9981085628100.472569431688571624225240DRYM
2025-10-13 08:00:02FORECAST2026159547.55235.92441.738000.133.673.8TF15.552280.55279345.9981085628100.466667606490651624225240DRYM
2025-10-13 04:00:03FORECAST2026159547.60636.28441.945000.123.673.79TF15.606280.60679345.9981085628100.468634131924231624225240DRYM
2025-10-13 00:00:02FORECAST2026159547.55236.51842.03500.0007874020.2407874023.784.020787402TF15.552280.55279345.9981085628100.466667606490651624225240WETMH
2025-10-12 20:00:02FORECAST2026159546.41836.2341.32400.0003937010.1103937013.813.920393701TF14.418275.41879345.9981085628100.425631388605721624225240DRYM
2025-10-12 16:00:01FORECAST2026159546.16634.89840.53200.0003937010.1303937013.813.940393701TF14.166275.16679345.9981085628100.416604756209761624225240DRYM
2025-10-12 12:00:01FORECAST2026159545.17634.73639.95600.0011811030.0711811033.813.881181103TF13.176273.17679345.9981085628100.381609198980631624215220DRYL
2025-10-12 08:00:01FORECAST2026159545.2335.07840.15400.0003937010.0903937013.934.020393701TF13.23273.2379345.9981085628100.383496097681441624225240WETMH
2025-10-12 04:00:03FORECAST2026159544.81633.81839.31700.0003937010.0603937013.63.660393701FF12.816274.81679345.9981085628100.369103646913361624215220DRYL
2025-10-12 00:00:02FORECAST2026159542.2632.68437.472000.093.43.49FF10.26272.2679345.9981085628100.284905101127081624215220DRYL
2025-10-11 20:00:02FORECAST2026159542.18831.20836.698000.083.493.57FF10.188272.18879345.9981085628100.282670728805821624215220DRYL
2025-10-11 16:00:02FORECAST2026159542.15230.7436.446000.13.543.64FF10.152270.15279345.9981085628100.281556705889911624225240DRYM
2025-10-11 12:00:02FORECAST2026159544.76232.75638.759000.063.533.59FF12.762273.76279345.9981085628100.367239336272561624215220DRYL
2025-10-11 08:00:03FORECAST2026159544.58232.46838.525000.083.543.62FF12.582274.58279345.9981085628100.361047749997081624215220DRYL
2025-10-11 04:00:03FORECAST2026159545.26632.50438.885000.033.573.6FF13.266273.26679345.9981085628100.384755569570491624215220DRYL
2025-10-11 00:00:02FORECAST2026159545.84235.58240.712000.063.53.56FF13.842263.84279345.9981085628100.405064018586221624215220DRYL
2025-10-10 20:00:02FORECAST2026159547.22836.30241.765000.063.793.85TF15.228268.22879345.9981085628100.454887202221861624215220DRYL
2025-10-10 16:00:02FORECAST2026159547.17436.21241.693000.053.683.73TF15.174267.17479345.9981085628100.452927370027181624215220DRYL
2025-10-10 12:00:03FORECAST2026159547.71434.77241.243000.093.783.87TF15.714269.71479345.9981085628100.472569431688571624215220DRYL
2025-10-10 08:00:02FORECAST2026159546.88634.59240.739000.073.743.81TF14.886271.88679345.9981085628100.442495434817761624215220DRYL
2025-10-10 04:00:04FORECAST2026159546.83235.11440.973000.073.863.93TF14.832269.83279345.9981085628100.440543655151951624215220DRYL
2025-10-10 00:00:02FORECAST2026159545.10434.12439.61400.0047244120.0647244123.563.624724412FF13.104257.10479345.9981085628100.379097709695291624215220DRYL
2025-10-09 20:00:02FORECAST2026159545.24833.49439.37100.0047244120.0747244123.633.704724412TF13.248258.24879345.9981085628100.384125680723061624215220DRYL
2025-10-09 16:00:01FORECAST2026159546.1334.05240.09100.0047244120.0747244123.463.534724412FF14.13264.1379345.9981085628100.415318702419561624215220DRYL
2025-10-09 12:00:02FORECAST2026159543.39431.13637.265000.193.113.3FF11.394261.39479345.9981085628100.321156881391071624225240DRYM
2025-10-09 08:00:02FORECAST2026159542.8932.93637.913000.193.223.41FF10.89258.8979345.9981085628100.304805879875881624225240DRYM
2025-10-09 04:00:04FORECAST2026159542.18832.21637.202000.223.273.49FF10.188255.18879345.9981085628100.282670728805821624225240DRYM
2025-10-09 00:00:02FORECAST2026159544.07834.32239.2000.343.283.62TF12.078255.07879345.9981085628100.343908388671681624225240DRYM
2025-10-08 20:00:02FORECAST2026159546.41832.95439.686000.343.473.81TF14.418254.41879345.9981085628100.425631388605721624225240DRYM
2025-10-08 16:00:03FORECAST2026159546.23831.98239.11000.273.423.69TF14.238254.23879345.9981085628100.419179529707531624225240DRYM
2025-10-08 12:00:03FORECAST2026159545.69833.58439.64100.1318898350.3418898353.84.141889835TF13.698250.69879345.9981085628100.399960545492551624225240WETM
2025-10-08 08:00:02FORECAST2026159541.05431.47836.26600.1318898350.3418898353.674.011889835TF9.054244.05479345.9981085628100.24863290560411614225235WETM
2025-10-08 04:00:06FORECAST2026159540.47833.02636.75200.1405512570.5005512573.473.970551257TF8.478242.47879345.9981085628100.232217815249361614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-08 00:00:04FORECAST2026159540.24431.17235.70800.0295275750.3595275753.754.109527575TF8.244236.24479345.9981085628100.225725250491421614225235WETM
2025-10-07 20:00:04FORECAST2026159540.24431.17235.70800.0295275750.3595275753.724.079527575TF8.244237.24479345.9981085628100.225725250491421614225235WETM
2025-10-07 16:00:02FORECAST2026159541.4531.33436.39200.019685050.479685053.473.94968505TF9.45234.4579345.9981085628100.260266440628391624225240DRYM
2025-10-07 12:00:05FORECAST2026159542.42230.00236.212000.593.373.96TF10.422231.42279345.9981085628100.289962980412561624235260DRYH
2025-10-07 08:00:02FORECAST2026159542.42230.00236.212000.593.353.94TF10.422232.42279345.9981085628100.289962980412561624235260DRYH
2025-10-07 04:00:04FORECAST2026159541.14430.03835.591000.713.394.1TF9.144229.14479345.9981085628100.251252377753591624235260WETM
2025-10-07 00:00:02FORECAST2026159541.43230.79436.113000.333.663.99TF9.432233.43279345.9981085628100.259731632842891624225240DRYM
2025-10-06 20:00:03FORECAST2026159541.43230.79436.113000.363.583.94TF9.432228.43279345.9981085628100.259731632842891624225240DRYM
2025-10-06 16:00:02FORECAST2026159540.5528.07634.313000.343.483.82TF8.55228.5579345.9981085628100.234236201790971614225235DRYL
2025-10-06 12:00:02FORECAST2026159540.85631.42436.1400.5842522840.9042522842.573.474252284TF8.856240.85679345.9981085628100.242921577701561614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-06 08:00:03FORECAST2026159543.0731.67637.37300.5842522840.9042522842.573.474252284TF11.07245.0779345.9981085628100.310603172439091624235260DRYH
2025-10-06 04:00:03FORECAST2026159552.53831.9142.224000.322.632.95FF20.538249.53879345.9981085628100.645424912741951634225245DRYM
2025-10-06 00:00:02FORECAST2026159537.429.17433.28700.0421260071.0621260073.14.162126007TF5.4229.479345.9981085628100.15538724375251614245270WETM
2025-10-05 20:00:03FORECAST2026159537.429.17433.28700.0421260071.0621260073.094.152126007TF5.4234.479345.9981085628100.15538724375251614245270WETM
2025-10-05 16:00:02FORECAST2026159536.19429.55232.87300.0716535821.0716535823.214.281653582TF4.194230.19479345.9981085628100.130473586646921614245270WETM
2025-10-05 12:00:02FORECAST2026159543.37640.15441.76500.0082677210.3882677213.273.658267721TF11.376250.37679345.9981085628100.320566657374391624225240DRYM
2025-10-05 08:00:03FORECAST2026159543.37640.15441.76500.0082677210.3882677213.273.658267721TF11.376263.37679345.9981085628100.320566657374391624225240DRYM
2025-10-05 04:00:04FORECAST2026159543.89843.8843.889000.573.223.79TF11.898269.89879345.9981085628100.337861898588421624235260DRYH