Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, October 14, 2025

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DAY 14 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/15/2025 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.79°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.37°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.08°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.262 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 10 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 293 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.55 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.36 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.75 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 80 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 346.95 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 94 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 4 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 60.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-15 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2026	14	94	41.79002	28.36994	35.07998	0	0	0.55	3.13	3.68	T	F	9.79002	292.79002	80	346.95351932015	0	0.26200670513701	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-15 00:00:01	FORECAST	2026	14	94	40.676	24.332	32.504	0	0	0.55	3.13	3.68	T	F	8.676	291.676	80	346.95351932015	0	0.22772984481325	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2025-10-14 12:00:01	FORECAST	2026	14	94	40.316	24.062	32.189	0	0	0.55	3.13	3.68	T	F	8.316	291.316	80	346.95351932015	0	0.21721702594777	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2025-10-14 08:00:01	FORECAST	2026	14	94	41.522	22.748	32.135	0	0	0.55	3.13	3.68	T	F	9.522	292.522	80	346.95351932015	0	0.25352578991104	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-14 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	14	94	42.818	23.972	33.395	0	0	0.55	3.13	3.68	T	F	10.818	293.818	80	346.95351932015	0	0.29582747594897	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-14 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	44.546	24.566	34.556	0	0	0.65	3.13	3.78	T	F	12.546	296.546	80	346.95351932015	0	0.35676335317863	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-13 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	44.69	25.898	35.294	0	0	0.66	3.13	3.79	T	F	12.69	297.69	80	346.95351932015	0	0.36203879287083	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-13 16:00:01	FORECAST	2026	14	94	45.068	28.004	36.536	0	0	0.66	3.13	3.79	T	F	13.068	298.068	80	346.95351932015	0	0.37600969217115	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-13 12:00:01	FORECAST	2026	14	94	45.068	28.796	36.932	0	0	0.66	3.13	3.79	T	F	13.068	298.068	80	346.95351932015	0	0.37600969217115	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-13 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	44.762	30.488	37.625	0	0	0.67	3.13	3.8	T	F	12.762	297.762	80	346.95351932015	0	0.36468644364096	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-13 04:00:03	FORECAST	2026	14	94	44.672	30.308	37.49	0	0	0.66	3.13	3.79	T	F	12.672	297.672	80	346.95351932015	0	0.36137790419028	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-13 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	45.032	30.668	37.85	0	0	0.89	3.13	4.02	T	F	13.032	298.032	80	346.95351932015	0	0.37467177590227	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	M
2025-10-12 20:00:01	FORECAST	2026	14	94	43.484	29.75	36.617	0	0	0.79	3.13	3.92	T	F	11.484	294.484	80	346.95351932015	0	0.31875570437358	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-12 16:00:01	FORECAST	2026	14	94	43.52	29.174	36.347	0	0	0.81	3.13	3.94	T	F	11.52	293.52	80	346.95351932015	0	0.32001613277261	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-12 12:00:01	FORECAST	2026	14	94	43.808	29.57	36.689	0	0.000787402	0.750787402	3.13	3.880787402	T	F	11.808	292.808	80	346.95351932015	0	0.3301733751924	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-12 08:00:01	FORECAST	2026	14	94	44.222	29.534	36.878	0	0.002362206	0.892362206	3.13	4.022362206	T	F	12.222	293.222	80	346.95351932015	0	0.34499458069609	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	M
2025-10-12 04:00:03	FORECAST	2026	14	94	43.79	30.02	36.905	0	0.002362206	0.532362206	3.13	3.662362206	T	F	11.79	294.79	80	346.95351932015	0	0.32953476937988	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-12 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	42.8	29.444	36.122	0	0.005118113	0.605118113	2.88	3.485118113	T	F	10.8	294.8	80	346.95351932015	0	0.29521842015118	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-11 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	42.602	27.806	35.204	0	0.00787402	0.57787402	2.99	3.56787402	T	F	10.602	294.602	80	346.95351932015	0	0.2885572004194	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-11 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	42.206	27.5	34.853	0	0.008267721	0.648267721	2.99	3.638267721	T	F	10.206	293.206	80	346.95351932015	0	0.27545122972489	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-11 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	42.62	28.148	35.384	0	0	0.6	2.99	3.59	T	F	10.62	293.62	80	346.95351932015	0	0.28915983306271	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-11 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	43.142	28.562	35.852	0	0	0.65	2.97	3.62	T	F	11.142	295.142	80	346.95351932015	0	0.30688764309518	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-11 04:00:03	FORECAST	2026	14	94	43.304	28.454	35.879	0	0	0.55	3.05	3.6	T	F	11.304	293.304	80	346.95351932015	0	0.31248517649609	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-11 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	44.834	30.056	37.445	0	0	0.64	2.92	3.56	T	F	12.834	282.834	80	346.95351932015	0	0.36734056131477	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-10 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	46.094	31.118	38.606	0	0	0.69	3.16	3.85	T	F	14.094	286.094	80	346.95351932015	0	0.41470815796536	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-10 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	45.356	30.47	37.913	0	0	0.62	3.11	3.73	T	F	13.356	285.356	80	346.95351932015	0	0.38676544745497	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-10 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	14	94	46.418	28.202	37.31	0	0	0.75	3.12	3.87	T	F	14.418	287.418	80	346.95351932015	0	0.42712252290225	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-10 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	47.3	29.984	38.642	0	0	0.69	3.12	3.81	T	F	15.3	290.3	80	346.95351932015	0	0.46124932637343	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-10 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	14	94	46.508	28.904	37.706	0	0	0.68	3.25	3.93	T	F	14.508	287.508	80	346.95351932015	0	0.43058435920667	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-10 00:00:01	FORECAST	2026	14	94	44.276	28.724	36.5	0	0	0.55	3.07	3.62	T	F	12.276	277.276	80	346.95351932015	0	0.34694603369037	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-09 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	44.834	28.022	36.428	0	0	0.64	3.06	3.7	T	F	12.834	277.834	80	346.95351932015	0	0.36734056131477	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-09 16:00:01	FORECAST	2026	14	94	45.374	30.344	37.859	0	0	0.67	2.86	3.53	T	F	13.374	283.374	80	346.95351932015	0	0.38744067454283	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-09 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	43.7	30.398	37.049	0	0	0.59	2.71	3.3	F	F	11.7	282.7	80	346.95351932015	0	0.32634921787981	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-09 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	43.142	30.524	36.833	0	0	0.62	2.79	3.41	F	F	11.142	281.142	80	346.95351932015	0	0.30688764309518	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-09 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	14	94	42.314	30.002	36.158	0	0	0.62	2.87	3.49	T	F	10.314	278.314	80	346.95351932015	0	0.27899641973915	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-09 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	42.89	31.622	37.256	0	0.017322844	0.787322844	2.83	3.617322844	T	F	10.89	275.89	80	346.95351932015	0	0.29826944519417	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-08 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	43.232	30.092	36.662	0	0.017322844	0.777322844	3.03	3.807322844	T	F	11.232	273.232	80	346.95351932015	0	0.30999194191911	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-08 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	14	94	43.358	30.326	36.842	0	0.009448824	0.659448824	3.03	3.689448824	T	F	11.358	273.358	80	346.95351932015	0	0.31436075502946	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-08 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	14	94	42.314	29.138	35.726	0	0.097637848	0.787637848	3.22	4.007637848	T	F	10.314	270.314	80	346.95351932015	0	0.27899641973915	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	M
2025-10-08 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	38.714	29.426	34.07	0	0.097637848	0.787637848	3.09	3.877637848	T	F	6.714	267.714	80	346.95351932015	0	0.17395275921256	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2025-10-08 04:00:05	FORECAST	2026	14	94	38.876	28.85	33.863	0	0.092126034	0.832126034	3	3.832126034	T	F	6.876	266.876	80	346.95351932015	0	0.17806153274764	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2025-10-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	14	94	40.19	30.956	35.573	0	0.205511922	0.995511922	3.08	4.075511922	T	F	8.19	261.19	80	346.95351932015	0	0.21360471509155	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	M
2025-10-07 20:00:04	FORECAST	2026	14	94	39.65	30.596	35.123	0	0.205511922	0.995511922	3.05	4.045511922	T	F	7.65	261.65	80	346.95351932015	0	0.19852417315223	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	M
2025-10-07 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	40.028	32.108	36.068	0	0.341338767	1.161338767	2.77	3.931338767	T	F	8.028	258.028	80	346.95351932015	0	0.20901203424173	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2025-10-07 12:00:05	FORECAST	2026	14	94	37.796	28.868	33.332	0	0.020472452	0.990472452	2.97	3.960472452	T	F	5.796	253.796	80	346.95351932015	0	0.15181765557933	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2025-10-07 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	37.688	27.068	32.378	0	0.020472452	0.990472452	2.95	3.940472452	T	F	5.688	254.688	80	346.95351932015	0	0.14934201528391	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2025-10-07 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	14	94	37.598	28.4	32.999	0	0.09842525	1.09842525	3	4.09842525	T	F	5.598	252.598	80	346.95351932015	0	0.14729962682115	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	M
2025-10-07 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	38.048	26.366	32.207	0	0.051968532	1.271968532	2.72	3.991968532	T	F	6.048	257.048	80	346.95351932015	0	0.15769933933084	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2025-10-06 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	38.048	26.906	32.477	0	0.051968532	1.271968532	2.67	3.941968532	T	F	6.048	252.048	80	346.95351932015	0	0.15769933933084	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2025-10-06 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	36.41	24.638	30.524	0	0.029921276	1.249921276	2.57	3.819921276	T	F	4.41	253.41	80	346.95351932015	0	0.12208859952216	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2025-10-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	38.66	32.918	35.789	0	0.307480481	0.517480481	2.37	2.887480481	F	F	6.66	264.66	80	346.95351932015	0	0.17259664026828	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2025-10-06 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	39.488	33.422	36.455	0	0.307480481	0.517480481	2.37	2.887480481	F	F	7.488	267.488	80	346.95351932015	0	0.19412811280465	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2025-10-06 04:00:03	FORECAST	2026	14	94	40.406	32.918	36.662	0	0.308267883	0.548267883	2.4	2.948267883	F	F	8.406	262.406	80	346.95351932015	0	0.21981867106453	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2025-10-06 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	36.518	30.038	33.278	0	0.962598945	1.212598945	2.91	4.122598945	T	F	4.518	256.518	80	346.95351932015	0	0.12424715207514	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	M
2025-10-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	14	94	36.518	30.038	33.278	0	0.962598945	1.212598945	2.9	4.112598945	T	F	4.518	261.518	80	346.95351932015	0	0.12424715207514	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	M
2025-10-05 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	35.15	29.714	32.432	0	0.983465098	1.313465098	2.9	4.213465098	T	F	3.15	259.15	80	346.95351932015	0	0.098829780020698	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	M
2025-10-05 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	43.808	31.748	37.778	0	0.372047445	0.682047445	2.97	3.652047445	T	F	11.808	271.808	80	346.95351932015	0	0.3301733751924	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-05 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	14	94	43.808	30.902	37.355	0	0.372047445	0.682047445	2.97	3.652047445	T	F	11.808	284.808	80	346.95351932015	0	0.3301733751924	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-05 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	14	94	43.718	31.748	37.733	0	0.462992376	1.042992376	2.75	3.792992376	T	F	11.718	290.718	80	346.95351932015	0	0.32698532588052	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2025-10-05 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	14	94	39.344	32.396	35.87	0	0.122441011	0.422441011	1.73	2.152441011	F	F	7.344	278.344	80	346.95351932015	0	0.19027060445835	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2025-10-04 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	39.344	32.396	35.87	0	0.122441011	0.422441011	1.73	2.152441011	F	F	7.344	279.344	80	346.95351932015	0	0.19027060445835	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2025-10-04 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	14	94	43.052	31.82	37.436	0	0	0.59	1.73	2.32	F	F	11.052	278.052	80	346.95351932015	0	0.30379711753773	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	14	94	43.502	37.904	40.703	0	0	0.24	1.94	2.18	F	F	11.502	306.502	80	346.95351932015	0	0.31938565789519	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-04 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	14	94	43.502	37.904	40.703	0	0	0.24	1.94	2.18	F	F	11.502	303.502	80	346.95351932015	0	0.31938565789519	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-04 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	14	94	45.896	45.158	45.527	0	0	0.16	1.96	2.12	F	F	13.896	312.896	80	346.95351932015	0	0.4071624915635	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M