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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, October 13, 2025

[ Sunday, October 12, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, October 14, 2025 ]

DAY 13 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/14/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.83°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.38°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.60°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.103
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 305

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.19 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.75 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.75 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 81
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 347.91 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 93

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 4
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 70.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-14 04:00:03OBSERVATION2026139335.8300427.3799431.6049900.00999999999999091.172.513.68TF3.83004304.8300481347.90530640596 00.1025819989878216 14245270DRYH
2025-10-14 00:00:02FORECAST2026139337.18423.03630.1100.1106299811.2706299812.513.780629981TF5.184306.18481347.9053064059600.1278757459241614245270DRYH
2025-10-13 12:00:01FORECAST2026139337.9423.23430.58700.1161417951.2761417952.513.786141795TF5.94306.9481347.9053064059600.143741827541271614245270DRYH
2025-10-13 08:00:02FORECAST2026139337.99423.2730.63200.1283465261.2883465262.513.798346526TF5.994306.99481347.9053064059600.144923722024741614245270DRYH
2025-10-13 04:00:02FORECAST2026139338.04822.98230.51500.11811031.27811032.513.7881103TF6.048307.04881347.9053064059600.146112123300111614245270DRYH
2025-10-13 00:00:01FORECAST2026139337.99424.06231.02800.2397639091.5097639092.514.019763909TF5.994306.99481347.9053064059600.144923722024741614255287.5WETL
2025-10-12 20:00:01FORECAST2026139336.93222.62229.77700.1129921871.4129921872.513.922992187TF4.932304.93281347.9053064059600.122867434145391614245270DRYH
2025-10-12 16:00:01FORECAST2026139335.65424.1729.91200.1322835361.4322835362.513.942283536TF3.654303.65481347.9053064059600.0995804073364111614245270DRYH
2025-10-12 12:00:01FORECAST2026139335.36625.12430.24500.0677165721.3677165722.513.877716572TF3.366303.36681347.9053064059600.0948086194769581614245270DRYH
2025-10-12 08:00:01FORECAST2026139335.29425.9730.63200.0881890241.5081890242.514.018189024TF3.294303.29481347.9053064059600.0936423526397191614255287.5WETL
2025-10-12 04:00:02FORECAST2026139335.13225.86230.49700.0582677481.1482677482.513.658267748TF3.132305.13281347.9053064059600.0910569182548751614245270DRYH
2025-10-12 00:00:02FORECAST2026139334.7925.8830.33500.0767716950.9667716952.513.476771695TF2.79305.7981347.9053064059600.0857727348458251614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-11 20:00:02FORECAST2026139334.68224.38629.53400.066929171.046929172.513.55692917TF2.682305.68281347.9053064059600.0841525172195561614245270DRYH
2025-10-11 16:00:02FORECAST2026139334.8823.97229.42600.094488241.124488242.513.63448824TF2.88304.8881347.9053064059600.0871406005918711614245270DRYH
2025-10-11 12:00:02FORECAST2026139335.20424.40429.80400.0594488511.0794488512.513.589448851TF3.204305.20481347.9053064059600.0921994098678651614245270DRYH
2025-10-11 08:00:02FORECAST2026139335.61824.38630.00200.0751968911.1051968912.513.615196891TF3.618305.61881347.9053064059600.0989745447329531614245270DRYH
2025-10-11 04:00:03FORECAST2026139335.20425.17830.19100.0255905651.0855905652.513.595590565TF3.204304.20481347.9053064059600.0921994098678651614245270DRYH
2025-10-11 00:00:02FORECAST2026139335.5125.98830.74900.0622047581.0422047582.523.562204758TF3.51291.5181347.9053064059600.0971730909702141614245270DRYH
2025-10-10 20:00:02FORECAST2026139336.69826.631.64900.0614173561.1614173562.693.851417356TF4.698293.69881347.9053064059600.118341135117431614245270DRYH
2025-10-10 16:00:02FORECAST2026139336.526.70831.60400.0523622331.0423622332.693.732362233TF4.5293.581347.9053064059600.114604024940571614245270DRYH
2025-10-10 12:00:02FORECAST2026139336.8627.42832.14400.0925197351.1825197352.693.872519735TF4.86294.8681347.9053064059600.121462019801441614245270DRYH
2025-10-10 08:00:02FORECAST2026139336.84226.27631.55900.0712598811.1412598812.673.811259881TF4.842296.84281347.9053064059600.121112433607261614245270DRYH
2025-10-10 04:00:04FORECAST2026139336.62626.29431.4600.0712598811.3312598812.63.931259881TF4.626294.62681347.9053064059600.116972372155141614245270DRYH
2025-10-10 00:00:01FORECAST2026139335.52826.5131.01900.0649606651.1949606652.433.624960665TF3.528286.52881347.9053064059600.0974716561002811614245270DRYH
2025-10-09 20:00:02FORECAST2026139335.18626.94231.06400.0653543661.3253543662.373.695354366TF3.186287.18681347.9053064059600.0919128003564021614245270DRYH
2025-10-09 16:00:01FORECAST2026139336.91428.16632.5400.0665354691.2165354692.313.526535469TF4.914291.91481347.9053064059600.122515019383721614245270DRYH
2025-10-09 12:00:02FORECAST2026139336.0527.42831.73900.1885827790.9785827792.323.298582779TF4.05293.0581347.9053064059600.106423886818721614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-09 08:00:02FORECAST2026139335.13227.4131.27100.1885827790.9985827792.413.408582779TF3.132292.13281347.9053064059600.0910569182548751614245270DRYH
2025-10-09 04:00:03FORECAST2026139334.08826.99630.54200.2185040551.0485040552.443.488504055TF2.088290.08881347.9053064059600.0756483243995431614245270DRYH
2025-10-09 00:00:02FORECAST2026139335.94228.72432.33300.3216537171.1616537172.443.601653717TF3.942286.94281347.9053064059600.104524778936281614245270DRYH
2025-10-08 20:00:02FORECAST2026139335.94227.78831.86500.3216537171.2016537172.593.791653717TF3.942283.94281347.9053064059600.104524778936281614245270DRYH
2025-10-08 16:00:03FORECAST2026139335.88828.14832.01800.2625985671.1325985672.553.682598567TF3.888283.88881347.9053064059600.103584455103251614245270DRYH
2025-10-08 12:00:03FORECAST2026139334.17825.30429.74100.114173291.344173292.573.91417329TF2.178282.17881347.9053064059600.0768931526064961614245270DRYH
2025-10-08 08:00:02FORECAST2026139335.1525.59230.37100.114173291.214173292.573.78417329TF3.15283.1581347.9053064059600.0913415552021711614245270DRYH
2025-10-08 04:00:05FORECAST2026139335.2426.8731.05500.2700788861.3700788862.373.740078886TF3.24282.2481347.9053064059600.0927746060025661614245270DRYH
2025-10-08 00:00:03FORECAST2026139334.32226.92430.62300.1228347121.4428347122.433.872834712TF2.322275.32281347.9053064059600.0789170687140161614245270DRYH
2025-10-07 20:00:03FORECAST2026139334.46627.1430.80300.1228347121.4428347122.43.842834712TF2.466276.46681347.9053064059600.0809809448253841614245270DRYH
2025-10-07 16:00:02FORECAST2026139334.68227.66231.17200.1200788051.3800788052.213.590078805TF2.682271.68281347.9053064059600.0841525172195561614245270DRYH
2025-10-07 12:00:04FORECAST2026139334.53826.40230.4700.5688979451.5888979452.353.938897945TF2.538269.53881347.9053064059600.0820279875425341614255287.5DRYVH
2025-10-07 08:00:02FORECAST2026139334.46625.9730.21800.5688979451.5888979452.333.918897945TF2.466271.46681347.9053064059600.0809809448253841614255287.5DRYVH
2025-10-07 04:00:04FORECAST2026139334.50226.56430.53300.6114176531.6814176532.324.001417653TF2.502268.50281347.9053064059600.0815032025345921614255287.5WETL
2025-10-07 00:00:02FORECAST2026139335.52828.65232.0900.2830710191.7730710192.173.943071019TF3.528272.52881347.9053064059600.0974716561002811614255287.5DRYVH
2025-10-06 20:00:02FORECAST2026139334.93427.62631.2800.3114174911.7914174912.13.891417491TF2.934267.93481347.9053064059600.0879690758845561614255287.5DRYVH
2025-10-06 16:00:02FORECAST2026139334.0725.64629.85800.3122048931.79220489323.792204893TF2.07271.0781347.9053064059600.075401205153171614255287.5DRYVH
2025-10-06 12:00:02FORECAST2026139338.82228.72433.77300.0074803190.6474803191.932.577480319FF6.822279.82281347.9053064059600.163862371753811614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-06 08:00:02FORECAST2026139340.22628.81434.5200.0074803190.6474803191.932.577480319FF8.226282.22681347.9053064059600.199470280710941614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-06 04:00:03FORECAST2026139339.75826.85233.30500.0125984320.7125984321.932.642598432FF7.758275.75881347.9053064059600.18711584897721614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-06 00:00:02FORECAST2026139337.77825.95231.86500.055118140.675118142.483.15511814FF5.778273.77881347.9053064059600.140235144140641614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-05 20:00:03FORECAST2026139337.77827.30232.5400.055118140.675118142.473.14511814FF5.778278.77881347.9053064059600.140235144140641614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-05 16:00:02FORECAST2026139336.87826.54631.71200.0188976480.7588976482.473.228897648FF4.878277.87881347.9053064059600.121812312580311614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-05 12:00:02FORECAST2026139337.1326.92432.02700.0090551231.3090551231.973.279055123TF5.13282.1381347.9053064059600.126790805841761614245270DRYH
2025-10-05 08:00:03FORECAST2026139337.23826.5131.87400.0090551231.3090551231.973.279055123TF5.238295.23881347.9053064059600.128967100956621614245270DRYH
2025-10-05 04:00:04FORECAST2026139337.05826.81631.93700.1082677751.3682677751.963.328267775TF5.058301.05881347.9053064059600.125354183033871614245270DRYH
2025-10-05 00:00:02FORECAST2026139337.99431.17234.58300.0736220870.5736220871.462.033622087FF5.994292.99481347.9053064059600.144923722024741614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-04 20:00:02FORECAST2026139337.99431.17234.58300.0736220870.5736220871.462.033622087FF5.994293.99481347.9053064059600.144923722024741614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-04 16:00:02FORECAST2026139337.1330.77633.95300.0594488510.8594488511.462.319448851FF5.13289.1381347.9053064059600.126790805841761614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-04 12:00:03FORECAST2026139345.24833.0839.16400.027559070.527559071.652.17755907FF13.248317.24881347.9053064059600.359373286574591624235260DRYH
2025-10-04 08:00:03FORECAST2026139345.24833.0839.16400.027559070.527559071.652.17755907FF13.248314.24881347.9053064059600.359373286574591624235260DRYH
2025-10-04 04:00:04FORECAST2026139347.64233.38640.51400.0389763990.4489763991.672.118976399FF15.642320.64281347.9053064059600.4483865440691624225240DRYM
2025-10-04 00:00:02FORECAST2026139343.37631.0137.19300.0523622330.4423622331.461.902362233FF11.376323.37681347.9053064059600.294495110509311624225240DRYM
2025-10-03 20:00:03FORECAST2026139343.37631.0137.19300.0523622330.4423622331.461.902362233FF11.376325.37681347.9053064059600.294495110509311624225240DRYM
2025-10-03 16:00:03FORECAST2026139340.85629.82235.339000.351.541.89FF8.856319.85681347.9053064059600.216853794119851614225235DRYL
2025-10-03 12:00:02FORECAST2026139354.73449.3752.052000.51.772.27FF22.734339.73481347.9053064059600.709797361622441644235275DRYVH
2025-10-03 08:00:02FORECAST2026139354.73449.3752.052000.51.772.27FF22.734330.73481347.9053064059600.709797361622441644235275DRYVH
2025-10-03 04:00:04FORECAST2026139356.10255.0455.571000.531.742.27FF24.102328.10281347.9053064059600.753158926730021644235275DRYVH