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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, October 12, 2025

[ Saturday, October 11, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, October 13, 2025 ]

DAY 12 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/13/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.60°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.47°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.54°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.043
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 324

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.54 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.25 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.74 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.74 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 82
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 348.85 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 92

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 4
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 70.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-13 04:00:02OBSERVATION2026129230.5999626.4700428.53500.540000000000081.23000000000012.443.6700000000001TF-1.40004323.5999682348.85348356404 00.04311799783223416 14245270DRYH
2025-10-13 00:00:01FORECAST2026129230.59623.70227.14900.6519688561.3419688562.443.781968856TF-1.404323.59682348.8534835640400.0430824267180671614245270DRYH
2025-10-12 12:00:01FORECAST2026129229.76824.85427.31100.6807090291.3707090292.443.810709029TF-2.232322.76882348.8534835640400.036148251568361614245270DRYH
2025-10-12 08:00:01FORECAST2026129230.00223.926.95100.8000004321.4900004322.443.930000432TF-1.998323.00282348.8534835640400.0380086275042331614245270DRYH
2025-10-12 04:00:02FORECAST2026129232.32426.74429.53400.4720474991.1620474992.443.602047499TF0.324325.32482348.8534835640400.0609907361742521614245270DRYH
2025-10-12 00:00:02FORECAST2026129232.16226.0629.11100.5228349280.9628349282.443.402834928TF0.162326.16282348.8534835640400.0590978797396761614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-11 20:00:01FORECAST2026129231.22625.32228.27400.496063261.046063262.443.48606326TF-0.774326.22682348.8534835640400.0490455715740241614245270DRYH
2025-10-11 16:00:01FORECAST2026129230.05625.05227.55400.5547247091.1047247092.443.544724709TF-1.944325.05682348.8534835640400.0384488216474211614245270DRYH
2025-10-11 12:00:02FORECAST2026129230.09225.59227.84200.5397640711.0897640712.443.529764071TF-1.908325.09282348.8534835640400.0387445793333721614245270DRYH
2025-10-11 08:00:02FORECAST2026129229.98425.41227.69800.5692916461.0992916462.443.539291646TF-2.016324.98482348.8534835640400.0378628102291041614245270DRYH
2025-10-11 04:00:03FORECAST2026129230.1125.727.90500.5244097321.1344097322.443.574409732TF-1.89324.1182348.8534835640400.0388931495519351614245270DRYH
2025-10-11 00:00:02FORECAST2026129230.18226.34828.26500.5783467691.0583467692.443.498346769TF-1.818311.18282348.8534835640400.0394920621473171614245270DRYH
2025-10-10 20:00:02FORECAST2026129230.70427.24828.97600.625984591.345984592.443.78598459TF-1.296311.70482348.8534835640400.044061050081511614245270DRYH
2025-10-10 16:00:02FORECAST2026129230.70427.08628.89500.5661420381.2361420382.443.676142038TF-1.296311.70482348.8534835640400.044061050081511614245270DRYH
2025-10-10 12:00:02FORECAST2026129231.85627.91429.88500.6586617731.3386617732.443.778661773TF-0.144312.85682348.8534835640400.0556480926487821614245270DRYH
2025-10-10 08:00:02FORECAST2026129232.82828.14830.48800.6161420651.2961420652.443.736142065TF0.828314.82882348.8534835640400.0671825165661591614245270DRYH
2025-10-10 04:00:03FORECAST2026129232.3627.529.9300.6098428491.4198428492.443.859842849TF0.36313.3682348.8534835640400.0614177170653071614245270DRYH
2025-10-10 00:00:01FORECAST2026129231.24427.30229.27300.4858270341.3458270342.213.555827034TF-0.756306.24482348.8534835640400.0492251471791581614245270DRYH
2025-10-09 20:00:02FORECAST2026129231.2828.11229.69600.5704727491.4504727492.183.630472749TF-0.72307.2882348.8534835640400.0495858681740021614245270DRYH
2025-10-09 16:00:01FORECAST2026129232.25228.47230.36200.6015751281.2815751282.183.461575128TF0.252310.25282348.8534835640400.0601437156630641614245270DRYH
2025-10-09 12:00:02FORECAST2026129232.61227.2329.92100.3988191130.9288191132.183.108819113FF0.612311.61282348.8534835640400.0644720435301571614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-09 08:00:02FORECAST2026129232.37826.7829.57900.4279529870.9779529872.243.217952987FF0.378312.37882348.8534835640400.0616320783470691614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-09 04:00:03FORECAST2026129231.47826.6929.08400.4003939171.0203939172.253.270393917TF-0.522311.47882348.8534835640400.0516075650929761614245270DRYH
2025-10-09 00:00:02FORECAST2026129230.88427.98629.43500.4496065421.0596065422.223.279606542TF-1.116305.88482348.8534835640400.0457317204918881614245270DRYH
2025-10-08 20:00:02FORECAST2026129230.77627.51829.14700.4397640171.1297640172.343.469764017TF-1.224302.77682348.8534835640400.0447233349269211614245270DRYH
2025-10-08 16:00:03FORECAST2026129231.17228.23829.70500.389763991.119763992.33.41976399TF-0.828303.17282348.8534835640400.0485099728570171614245270DRYH
2025-10-08 12:00:03FORECAST2026129233.1728.18430.67700.5803152741.5303152742.273.800315274TF1.17303.1782348.8534835640400.0716525642074681614255287.5DRYVH
2025-10-08 08:00:02FORECAST2026129231.31627.64429.4800.5803152741.4203152742.253.670315274TF-0.684303.31682348.8534835640400.0499486885812321614245270DRYH
2025-10-08 04:00:05FORECAST2026129231.33427.66229.49800.4677167881.3577167882.113.467716788TF-0.666302.33482348.8534835640400.0501308884499891614245270DRYH
2025-10-08 00:00:03FORECAST2026129231.42427.42829.42600.665354691.575354692.173.74535469TF-0.576296.42482348.8534835640400.0510498225613791614255287.5DRYVH
2025-10-07 20:00:03FORECAST2026129234.05227.3230.68600.665354691.575354692.143.71535469TF2.052297.05282348.8534835640400.0842275824129581614255287.5DRYVH
2025-10-07 16:00:02FORECAST2026129232.16227.89630.02900.6972444711.4572444712.013.467244471TF0.162292.16282348.8534835640400.0590978797396761614245270DRYH
2025-10-07 12:00:04FORECAST2026129232.01827.15829.58800.4043309271.4443309271.933.374330927TF0.018000000000001290.01882348.8534835640400.057454177429161614245270DRYH
2025-10-07 08:00:02FORECAST2026129231.20826.58228.89500.4043309271.4643309271.893.354330927TF-0.792292.20882348.8534835640400.0488665179561971614245270DRYH
2025-10-07 04:00:04FORECAST2026129231.0126.4228.71500.3881891861.5081891861.883.388189186TF-0.99289.0182348.8534835640400.0469311055229181614255287.5DRYVH
2025-10-07 00:00:02FORECAST2026129232.59427.03229.81300.9413390911.6313390912.033.661339091TF0.594291.59482348.8534835640400.0642500491238061614255287.5DRYVH
2025-10-06 20:00:02FORECAST2026129232.21626.97829.59700.9066934031.5966934031.983.576693403TF0.216288.21682348.8534835640400.0597236614779721614255287.5DRYVH
2025-10-06 16:00:02FORECAST2026129231.58626.7829.18300.9114178151.5314178151.953.481417815TF-0.414291.58682348.8534835640400.0527375294055151614255287.5DRYVH
2025-10-06 12:00:02FORECAST2026129233.42227.6830.55100.1980316030.6780316031.892.568031603FF1.422296.42282348.8534835640400.0750892376818331614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-06 08:00:02FORECAST2026129233.49427.64430.56900.1980316030.6780316031.892.568031603FF1.494297.49482348.8534835640400.0760937946428211614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-06 04:00:03FORECAST2026129231.80226.74429.27300.2342520950.7442520951.892.634252095FF-0.198290.80282348.8534835640400.0550560895272341614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-06 00:00:02FORECAST2026129234.01625.4329.72300.1870079750.8970079752.23.097007975FF2.016291.01682348.8534835640400.0836839441296081614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-05 20:00:02FORECAST2026129234.08825.71829.90300.1870079750.8970079752.193.087007975FF2.088296.08882348.8534835640400.0847738581336131614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-05 16:00:02FORECAST2026129232.79225.73629.26400.311023791.021023792.193.21102379FF0.792295.79282348.8534835640400.0667247720425721614245270DRYH
2025-10-05 12:00:02FORECAST2026129232.79226.56429.67800.2976379561.4076379561.863.267637956TF0.792299.79282348.8534835640400.0667247720425721614245270DRYH
2025-10-05 08:00:03FORECAST2026129232.32427.28429.80400.2976379561.4076379561.863.267637956TF0.324313.32482348.8534835640400.0609907361742521614245270DRYH
2025-10-05 04:00:04FORECAST2026129232.64829.31830.98300.4657482831.3557482831.863.215748283TF0.648318.64882348.8534835640400.0649178135045421614245270DRYH
2025-10-05 00:00:02FORECAST2026129236.3230.86633.59300.228346580.498346581.461.95834658FF4.32310.3282348.8534835640400.124015888875681614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-04 20:00:02FORECAST2026129236.3230.86633.59300.228346580.498346581.461.95834658FF4.32311.3282348.8534835640400.124015888875681614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-04 16:00:02FORECAST2026129235.0629.87632.46800.5283467420.7983467421.462.258346742FF3.06307.0682348.8534835640400.100541106549131614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-04 12:00:03FORECAST2026129238.94831.11835.03300.208661530.498661531.652.14866153FF6.948326.94882348.8534835640400.18457438703431614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-04 08:00:03FORECAST2026129238.94831.11835.03300.208661530.498661531.652.14866153FF6.948323.94882348.8534835640400.18457438703431614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-04 04:00:04FORECAST2026129239.30831.04635.17700.1177165990.4077165991.672.077716599FF7.308328.30882348.8534835640400.194105566835631614225235DRYL
2025-10-04 00:00:02FORECAST2026129235.81631.78433.800.204724520.424724521.431.85472452FF3.816334.81682348.8534835640400.114204238875581614225235DRYL
2025-10-03 20:00:03FORECAST2026129235.81631.78433.800.204724520.424724521.431.85472452FF3.816336.81682348.8534835640400.114204238875581614225235DRYL
2025-10-03 16:00:03FORECAST2026129236.0531.31633.68300.1098425790.3998425791.491.889842579FF4.05334.0582348.8534835640400.118688881177631614225235DRYL
2025-10-03 12:00:02FORECAST2026129258.69434.55646.62500.4165356580.5765356581.692.266535658FF26.694339.69482348.8534835640400.849004986409071654235282.5DRYVH
2025-10-03 08:00:02FORECAST2026129258.69434.55646.62500.4165356580.5765356581.692.266535658FF26.694330.69482348.8534835640400.849004986409071654235282.5DRYVH
2025-10-03 04:00:04FORECAST2026129257.1134.9746.0400.4039372260.6039372261.672.273937226FF25.11327.1182348.8534835640400.809826352082881644235275DRYVH
2025-10-03 00:00:03FORECAST2026129244.11434.23239.17300.0043307110.4243307111.952.374330711FF12.114302.11482348.8534835640400.347140530427861624225240DRYM
2025-10-02 20:00:03FORECAST2026129244.11434.23239.17300.0043307110.4243307111.952.374330711FF12.114301.11482348.8534835640400.347140530427861624225240DRYM
2025-10-02 16:00:02FORECAST2026129246.54435.8741.20700.0043307110.1743307111.932.104330711FF14.544304.54482348.8534835640400.438196276749871624225240DRYM
2025-10-02 12:00:03FORECAST2026129255.92248.97452.448000.321.922.24FF23.922332.92282348.8534835640400.776701126760661644225250DRYMH
2025-10-02 08:00:04FORECAST2026129241.9940.04641.018000.321.932.25FF9.99311.9982348.8534835640400.274032371995641624225240DRYM
2025-10-02 04:00:05FORECAST2026129242.96242.63842.8000.371.972.34FF10.962314.96282348.8534835640400.306550494618631624225240DRYM