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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, October 11, 2025

[ Friday, October 10, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, October 12, 2025 ]

DAY 11 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/12/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.89°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.15°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.52°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.127
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 361

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.64 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.28 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.20 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.20 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 83
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 349.80 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 91

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 4
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 70.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-12 04:00:02OBSERVATION2026119134.8900830.1499632.5200200.621.261.873.13TF2.89008360.8900883349.7980644861 00.1265349707366316 14245270DRYH
2025-10-12 00:00:02FORECAST2026119136.48231.6434.06100.3688978371.0088978371.872.878897837FF4.482362.48283349.798064486100.160394424245381614245270DRYH
2025-10-11 12:00:02FORECAST2026119137.32830.66833.99800.4795278181.1195278181.872.989527818FF5.328363.32883349.798064486100.180594437094651614245270DRYH
2025-10-11 08:00:01FORECAST2026119136.9530.6533.800.4633860771.1033860771.872.973386077FF4.95362.9583349.798064486100.171379749238191614245270DRYH
2025-10-11 04:00:03FORECAST2026119136.15830.4733.31400.5377955661.1777955661.873.047795566FF4.158362.15883349.798064486100.153064216784361614245270DRYH
2025-10-11 00:00:02FORECAST2026119135.52827.46431.49600.4039372261.0539372261.872.923937226FF3.528348.52883349.798064486100.139454572072231614245270DRYH
2025-10-10 20:00:01FORECAST2026119136.08627.42831.75700.4692915921.2892915921.873.159291592TF4.086349.08683349.798064486100.151465843248751614245270DRYH
2025-10-10 16:00:02FORECAST2026119135.79829.5732.68400.4208663691.2408663691.873.110866369FF3.798348.79883349.798064486100.145183365765311614245270DRYH
2025-10-10 12:00:02FORECAST2026119136.35631.83834.09700.4267718841.2467718841.873.116771884FF4.356349.35683349.798064486100.157517041515271614245270DRYH
2025-10-10 08:00:02FORECAST2026119136.57231.85634.21400.4460632331.2460632331.873.116063233FF4.572349.57283349.798064486100.162470539170541614245270DRYH
2025-10-10 04:00:03FORECAST2026119136.15831.26233.7100.6488192481.3788192481.873.248819248TF4.158349.15883349.798064486100.153064216784361614245270DRYH
2025-10-10 00:00:01FORECAST2026119135.92431.44233.68300.6421263311.2021263311.873.072126331FF3.924342.92483349.798064486100.147910105133481614245270DRYH
2025-10-09 20:00:01FORECAST2026119136.03231.2833.65600.6874019461.1874019461.873.057401946FF4.032344.03283349.798064486100.150274352263351614245270DRYH
2025-10-09 16:00:01FORECAST2026119136.33832.41434.37600.5500002970.9900002971.872.860000297FF4.338346.33883349.798064486100.157108765874811614245270DRYH
2025-10-09 12:00:02FORECAST2026119136.8631.98234.42100.389763990.839763991.872.70976399FF4.86346.8683349.798064486100.169230759299261614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-09 08:00:02FORECAST2026119137.23831.94634.59200.3783466610.9183466611.872.788346661FF5.238348.23883349.798064486100.178372826214681614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-09 04:00:03FORECAST2026119136.6832.03634.35800.4318899971.0018899971.872.871889997FF4.68347.6883349.798064486100.164984797166261614245270DRYH
2025-10-09 00:00:02FORECAST2026119136.64431.133.87200.3933072990.9733072991.862.833307299FF4.644342.64483349.798064486100.164143933508831614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-08 20:00:02FORECAST2026119136.98630.41633.70100.440945121.170945121.863.03094512FF4.986339.98683349.798064486100.172244195968531614245270DRYH
2025-10-08 16:00:02FORECAST2026119137.05830.8333.94400.4846459311.1746459311.863.034645931FF5.058340.05883349.798064486100.173981399354321614245270DRYH
2025-10-08 12:00:03FORECAST2026119136.12230.12833.12500.6464570421.3564570421.863.216457042TF4.122338.12283349.798064486100.152263641390371614245270DRYH
2025-10-08 08:00:02FORECAST2026119137.00429.53433.26900.5188979181.2288979181.863.088897918FF5.004340.00483349.798064486100.17267745827961614245270DRYH
2025-10-08 04:00:05FORECAST2026119135.65429.42632.5400.6307090021.1407090021.863.000709002FF3.654338.65483349.798064486100.142108646388651614245270DRYH
2025-10-08 00:00:03FORECAST2026119134.62828.92231.77500.6480318461.2180318461.863.078031846FF2.628332.62883349.798064486100.121475934612681614245270DRYH
2025-10-07 20:00:03FORECAST2026119134.57429.28231.92800.6507877531.1907877531.863.050787753FF2.574330.57483349.798064486100.120451413581131614245270DRYH
2025-10-07 16:00:02FORECAST2026119134.21429.1231.66700.5625987290.9125987291.862.772598729FF2.214328.21483349.798064486100.113776211793411614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-07 12:00:04FORECAST2026119134.17829.60631.89200.6169294671.1069294671.862.966929467FF2.178326.17883349.798064486100.11312344005661614245270DRYH
2025-10-07 08:00:02FORECAST2026119134.64629.60632.12600.6169294671.0869294671.862.946929467FF2.646328.64683349.798064486100.121818794856521614245270DRYH
2025-10-07 04:00:03FORECAST2026119134.57429.44432.00900.6751972151.1351972151.862.995197215FF2.574325.57483349.798064486100.120451413581131614245270DRYH
2025-10-07 00:00:02FORECAST2026119135.63629.42632.53100.5527562040.8627562041.862.722756204FF3.636326.63683349.798064486100.141727419748621614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-06 20:00:02FORECAST2026119134.68229.04831.86500.5661420380.8061420381.862.666142038FF2.682323.68283349.798064486100.122506547300821614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-06 16:00:02FORECAST2026119135.8728.432.13500.5720475530.7120475531.862.572047553FF3.87327.8783349.798064486100.146737344136111614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-06 12:00:02FORECAST2026119137.1329.46233.29600.4358270070.5058270071.862.365827007FF5.13331.1383349.798064486100.175729674951951614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-06 08:00:02FORECAST2026119136.26628.5832.42300.4358270070.5058270071.862.365827007FF4.266332.26683349.798064486100.155482610601491614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-06 04:00:03FORECAST2026119134.93426.74430.83900.47244120.54244121.862.4024412FF2.934326.93483349.798064486100.127396886807941614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-06 00:00:02FORECAST2026119133.24226.99630.11900.4314962961.0514962961.862.911496296FF1.242325.24283349.798064486100.0970770899320591614245270DRYH
2025-10-05 20:00:02FORECAST2026119134.91628.07631.49600.4314962961.0414962961.862.901496296FF2.916329.91683349.798064486100.127043151456581614245270DRYH
2025-10-05 16:00:02FORECAST2026119135.47428.05831.76600.4342522031.0442522031.862.904252203FF3.474331.47483349.798064486100.138327469678981614245270DRYH
2025-10-05 12:00:02FORECAST2026119138.73229.76834.2501.003937551.113937551.862.97393755FF6.732334.73283349.798064486100.217459257038881614245270DRYH
2025-10-05 08:00:02FORECAST2026119139.63230.95635.29401.003937551.113937551.862.97393755FF7.632348.63283349.798064486100.243211381468531614245270DRYH
2025-10-05 04:00:04FORECAST2026119139.9231.65835.78900.7925201130.8925201131.862.752520113FF7.92353.9283349.798064486100.251786755563761624235260DRYH
2025-10-05 00:00:02FORECAST2026119140.33433.06236.69800.2696851850.2796851851.451.729685185FF8.334342.33483349.798064486100.264387644934741624225240DRYM
2025-10-04 20:00:02FORECAST2026119145.17633.0839.12800.2696851850.2796851851.451.729685185FF13.176343.17683349.798064486100.431016427413191624225240DRYM
2025-10-04 16:00:02FORECAST2026119144.38432.61238.49800.2708662880.2808662881.451.730866288FF12.384340.38483349.798064486100.40191777802731624225240DRYM
2025-10-04 12:00:03FORECAST2026119149.13634.64641.89100.2933072450.3433072451.61.943307245FF17.136356.13683349.798064486100.578950228826131634225245DRYM
2025-10-04 08:00:03FORECAST2026119148.41634.64641.53100.2933072450.3433072451.61.943307245FF16.416353.41683349.798064486100.552267079906541634225245DRYM
2025-10-04 04:00:03FORECAST2026119147.62434.44841.03600.2937009460.3437009461.621.963700946FF15.624356.62483349.798064486100.522644593810741634225245DRYM
2025-10-04 00:00:02FORECAST2026119146.00433.81839.91100.1874016760.2174016761.431.647401676FF14.004367.00483349.798064486100.461840900194831624225240DRYM
2025-10-03 20:00:03FORECAST2026119144.27633.81839.04700.1874016760.2174016761.431.647401676FF12.276369.27683349.798064486100.397987793047091624225240DRYM
2025-10-03 16:00:03FORECAST2026119143.01632.8137.91300.23622060.28622061.491.7762206FF11.016366.01683349.798064486100.352997429005951624225240DRYM
2025-10-03 12:00:02FORECAST2026119143.35835.94239.6500.0814961070.2414961071.611.851496107FF11.358349.35883349.798064486100.365037122613821624225240DRYM
2025-10-03 08:00:02FORECAST2026119143.35835.94239.6500.0814961070.2414961071.611.851496107FF11.358340.35883349.798064486100.365037122613821624225240DRYM
2025-10-03 04:00:04FORECAST2026119143.03436.71639.87500.1318898350.2718898351.61.871889835FF11.034338.03483349.798064486100.353627566803651624225240DRYM
2025-10-03 00:00:03FORECAST2026119140.6433.81837.22900.1704725330.6004725331.772.370472533FF8.64325.6483349.798064486100.273903131682731624235260DRYH
2025-10-02 20:00:03FORECAST2026119140.6433.81837.22900.1704725330.6004725331.772.370472533FF8.64324.6483349.798064486100.273903131682731624235260DRYH
2025-10-02 16:00:02FORECAST2026119140.71235.02437.86800.1712599350.3712599351.732.101259935FF8.712325.71283349.798064486100.27616639531151624225240DRYM
2025-10-02 12:00:03FORECAST2026119159.8136.21248.01100.2326772910.5726772911.672.242677291FF27.81344.8183349.798064486100.885894484126621654235282.5DRYVH
2025-10-02 08:00:04FORECAST2026119154.10434.2544.17700.2326772910.5726772911.682.252677291FF22.104338.10483349.798064486100.747668874007821644235275DRYVH
2025-10-02 04:00:04FORECAST2026119155.52635.6945.60800.2259843740.6259843741.712.335984374FF23.526339.52683349.798064486100.788476038295621644235275DRYVH
2025-10-02 00:00:03FORECAST2026119134.64632.48633.56600.0161417410.5361417411.722.256141741FF2.646319.64683349.798064486100.121818794856521614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-01 20:00:05FORECAST2026119134.64632.48633.56600.0161417410.5361417411.892.426141741FF2.646313.64683349.798064486100.121818794856521614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-01 16:00:03FORECAST2026119134.37631.69433.03500.0161417410.5461417411.892.436141741FF2.376312.37683349.798064486100.116746795632061614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-01 12:00:02FORECAST2026119145.46442.72844.096000.141.751.89FF13.464346.46483349.798064486100.441700179880491624225240DRYM
2025-10-01 08:00:02FORECAST2026119145.46442.72844.096000.141.932.07FF13.464345.46483349.798064486100.441700179880491624225240DRYM
2025-10-01 04:00:04FORECAST2026119143.4342.38642.908000.141.831.97FF11.43336.4383349.798064486100.367589303723721624225240DRYM