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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, October 10, 2025

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DAY 10 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/11/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 55.93°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 35.53°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 45.73°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.736 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 24 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 398 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.07 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.65 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 2.56 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 2.56 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 84 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 350.74 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 90 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 4 D₁: 4 D₂: 2 D₃: 3 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 75.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-11 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2026	10	90	55.92992	35.52998	45.72995	0.069999999999936	0.64999999999994	1.86	2.5099999999999	F	F	23.92992	397.92992	84	350.7390628119	0.73578047685282	16	4	4	2	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2025-10-11 00:00:01	FORECAST	2026	10	90	42.692	30.488	36.59	0.081102406	0.661102406	1.86	2.521102406	F	F	10.692	384.692	84	350.7390628119	0.28603341453812	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-10 12:00:01	FORECAST	2026	10	90	42.728	32.756	37.742	0.245669424	0.825669424	1.86	2.685669424	F	F	10.728	384.728	84	350.7390628119	0.28714006864258	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-10 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	43.214	33.98	38.597	0.231102487	0.811102487	1.86	2.671102487	F	F	11.214	385.214	84	350.7390628119	0.30227434304163	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-10 04:00:03	FORECAST	2026	10	90	42.818	34.502	38.66	0.155511895	0.735511895	1.86	2.595511895	F	F	10.818	384.818	84	350.7390628119	0.28991552712092	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-10 00:00:01	FORECAST	2026	10	90	44.168	34.862	39.515	0.215354447	0.565354447	1.86	2.425354447	F	F	12.168	379.168	84	350.7390628119	0.33297209872826	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-09 20:00:01	FORECAST	2026	10	90	44.474	34.466	39.47	0.191338686	0.511338686	1.86	2.371338686	F	F	12.474	380.474	84	350.7390628119	0.34307374743096	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-09 16:00:01	FORECAST	2026	10	90	45.644	35.294	40.469	0.12598432	0.44598432	1.86	2.30598432	F	F	13.644	381.644	84	350.7390628119	0.38268476189828	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-09 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	45.86	35.402	40.631	0.135826845	0.455826845	1.86	2.315826845	F	F	13.86	381.86	84	350.7390628119	0.39014833898435	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-09 08:00:01	FORECAST	2026	10	90	46.418	35.204	40.811	0.171259935	0.551259935	1.86	2.411259935	F	F	14.418	383.418	84	350.7390628119	0.40961116129019	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-09 04:00:03	FORECAST	2026	10	90	45.77	35.114	40.442	0.194881995	0.584881995	1.86	2.444881995	F	F	13.77	382.77	84	350.7390628119	0.38703341837299	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-09 00:00:01	FORECAST	2026	10	90	46.346	35.69	41.018	0.220078859	0.580078859	1.86	2.440078859	F	F	14.346	378.346	84	350.7390628119	0.40708617334273	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-08 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	44.96	36.23	40.595	0.246063125	0.726063125	1.86	2.586063125	F	F	12.96	374.96	84	350.7390628119	0.35934786948205	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-08 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	44.582	35.546	40.064	0.248819032	0.688819032	1.86	2.548819032	F	F	12.582	374.582	84	350.7390628119	0.34666643293765	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-08 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	10	90	43.592	35.312	39.452	0.302362368	0.712362368	1.86	2.572362368	F	F	11.592	373.592	84	350.7390628119	0.31428683371261	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-08 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	43.16	35.33	39.245	0.320866315	0.710866315	1.86	2.570866315	F	F	11.16	375.16	84	350.7390628119	0.30057520225835	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-08 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	10	90	43.052	35.42	39.236	0.259448959	0.509448959	1.86	2.369448959	F	F	11.052	375.052	84	350.7390628119	0.29718991505722	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	10	90	42.854	35.15	39.002	0.257086753	0.567086753	1.86	2.427086753	F	F	10.854	369.854	84	350.7390628119	0.29102921863809	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-07 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	42.926	35.258	39.092	0.261811165	0.541811165	1.86	2.401811165	F	F	10.926	367.926	84	350.7390628119	0.29326257075501	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-07 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	42.404	34.7	38.552	0.203543417	0.353543417	1.86	2.213543417	F	F	10.404	366.404	84	350.7390628119	0.27725387185595	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-07 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	10	90	41.594	34.214	37.904	0.419291565	0.489291565	1.86	2.349291565	F	F	9.594	363.594	84	350.7390628119	0.25329037598597	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-07 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	43.07	35.096	39.083	0.442519924	0.472519924	1.86	2.332519924	F	F	11.07	366.07	84	350.7390628119	0.29775291923258	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-07 04:00:03	FORECAST	2026	10	90	42.242	34.718	38.48	0.44488213	0.46488213	1.86	2.32488213	F	F	10.242	363.242	84	350.7390628119	0.27237391772888	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-07 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	45.05	36.446	40.748	0.138189051	0.308189051	1.86	2.168189051	F	F	13.05	363.05	84	350.7390628119	0.36239085357122	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-06 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	43.178	35.654	39.416	0.115354393	0.235354393	1.86	2.095354393	F	F	11.178	361.178	84	350.7390628119	0.30114110377047	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-06 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	45.104	36.446	40.775	0.048031522	0.138031522	1.86	1.998031522	F	F	13.104	364.104	84	350.7390628119	0.36422083870882	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	46.454	37.49	41.972	0.040157502	0.070157502	1.86	1.930157502	F	F	14.454	366.454	84	350.7390628119	0.41087506930763	16	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2025-10-06 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	46.256	36.644	41.45	0.040157502	0.070157502	1.86	1.930157502	F	F	14.256	368.256	84	350.7390628119	0.40393537106865	16	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2025-10-06 04:00:03	FORECAST	2026	10	90	44.186	35.24	39.713	0.04330711	0.07330711	1.86	1.93330711	F	F	12.186	364.186	84	350.7390628119	0.33356306062201	16	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2025-10-06 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	43.988	33.8	38.894	0.277559205	0.617559205	1.86	2.477559205	F	F	11.988	363.988	84	350.7390628119	0.32708547276747	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-05 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	48.272	35.618	41.945	0.277559205	0.607559205	1.86	2.467559205	F	F	16.272	367.272	84	350.7390628119	0.47562757755513	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-05 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	49.55	36.158	42.854	0.279134009	0.609134009	1.86	2.469134009	F	F	17.55	367.55	84	350.7390628119	0.52164061545285	16	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2025-10-05 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	50.378	39.47	44.924	0.107480373	0.107480373	1.86	1.967480373	F	F	18.378	368.378	84	350.7390628119	0.55133671604765	16	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2025-10-05 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	52.052	40.262	46.157	0.107480373	0.107480373	1.86	1.967480373	F	F	20.052	381.052	84	350.7390628119	0.61033808695681	16	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2025-10-05 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	10	90	51.8	40.55	46.175	0.104724466	0.104724466	1.86	1.964724466	F	F	19.8	385.8	84	350.7390628119	0.60158229819612	16	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2025-10-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	50.522	38.822	44.672	0	0.02	1.44	1.46	F	F	18.522	373.522	84	350.7390628119	0.55647672519433	16	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-04 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	51.8	38.156	44.978	0	0.02	1.44	1.46	F	F	19.8	369.8	84	350.7390628119	0.60158229819612	16	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-04 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	51.566	37.436	44.501	0	0.02	1.44	1.46	F	F	19.566	367.566	84	350.7390628119	0.59340578191445	16	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	10	90	56.714	41.036	48.875	0	0.21	1.44	1.65	F	F	24.714	378.714	84	350.7390628119	0.75841227718609	16	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2025-10-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	58.172	42.278	50.225	0	0.21	1.44	1.65	F	F	26.172	377.172	84	350.7390628119	0.79754914395045	16	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2025-10-04 04:00:03	FORECAST	2026	10	90	58.208	42.332	50.27	0	0.22	1.45	1.67	F	F	26.208	381.208	84	350.7390628119	0.79846502394593	16	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2025-10-04 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	57.002	44.762	50.882	0.025196864	0.025196864	1.43	1.455196864	F	F	25.002	393.002	84	350.7390628119	0.76645327782303	16	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2025-10-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	54.842	43.16	49.001	0.025196864	0.025196864	1.43	1.455196864	F	F	22.842	396.842	84	350.7390628119	0.70268629126727	16	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2025-10-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	54.428	43.592	49.01	0.053543336	0.053543336	1.49	1.543543336	F	F	22.428	395.428	84	350.7390628119	0.68961386966523	16	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-03 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	48.056	37.85	42.953	0.078346499	0.298346499	1.47	1.768346499	F	F	16.056	378.056	84	350.7390628119	0.4678660103696	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-03 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	46.058	37.85	41.954	0.078346499	0.298346499	1.47	1.768346499	F	F	14.058	369.058	84	350.7390628119	0.39702577205257	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-03 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	10	90	48.38	38.426	43.403	0.07086618	0.28086618	1.46	1.74086618	F	F	16.38	367.38	84	350.7390628119	0.47951201747389	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-03 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	42.044	31.964	37.004	0.254330846	0.734330846	1.47	2.204330846	F	F	10.044	357.044	84	350.7390628119	0.2664679835295	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-02 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	42.044	33.71	37.877	0.254330846	0.734330846	1.47	2.204330846	F	F	10.044	356.044	84	350.7390628119	0.2664679835295	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-02 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	43.772	33.566	38.669	0.002755907	0.502755907	1.43	1.932755907	F	F	11.772	356.772	84	350.7390628119	0.32007796291956	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-02 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	44.636	35.78	40.208	0.093700838	0.593700838	1.42	2.013700838	F	F	12.636	356.636	84	350.7390628119	0.34846798199437	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	10	90	44.276	33.062	38.669	0.093700838	0.593700838	1.43	2.023700838	F	F	12.276	356.276	84	350.7390628119	0.33652403969168	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-02 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	10	90	43.79	32.738	38.264	0.140944958	0.650944958	1.46	2.110944958	F	F	11.79	355.79	84	350.7390628119	0.3206595231586	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-02 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	10	90	42.782	29.93	36.356	0.003543309	0.653543309	1.59	2.243543309	F	F	10.782	356.782	84	350.7390628119	0.28880383619854	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-01 20:00:05	FORECAST	2026	10	90	42.782	29.93	36.356	0.003543309	0.653543309	1.76	2.413543309	F	F	10.782	350.782	84	350.7390628119	0.28880383619854	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-01 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	10	90	41.558	27.896	34.727	0.003543309	0.663543309	1.76	2.423543309	F	F	9.558	349.558	84	350.7390628119	0.25225114644063	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-01 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	54.05	32.486	43.268	0.017716545	0.137716545	1.75	1.887716545	F	F	22.05	373.05	84	350.7390628119	0.67746489457073	16	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2025-10-01 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	54.05	32.216	43.133	0.016929143	0.136929143	1.93	2.066929143	F	F	22.05	372.05	84	350.7390628119	0.67746489457073	16	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2025-10-01 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	10	90	52.034	30.668	41.351	0.017322844	0.137322844	1.83	1.967322844	F	F	20.034	365.034	84	350.7390628119	0.60971446909224	16	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2025-10-01 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	44.654	38.12	41.387	0	0	1.55	1.55	F	F	12.654	365.654	84	350.7390628119	0.34906926073677	16	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2025-09-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	44.654	38.12	41.387	0	0	1.71	1.71	F	F	12.654	367.654	84	350.7390628119	0.34906926073677	16	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2025-09-30 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	10	90	41.846	37.49	39.668	0	0	1.73	1.73	F	F	9.846	361.846	84	350.7390628119	0.26062744691233	16	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2025-09-30 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	10	90	38.354	37.238	37.796	0	0	1.65	1.65	F	F	6.354	370.354	84	350.7390628119	0.16932177042937	16	1	4	2	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-09-30 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	10	90	38.354	37.238	37.796	0	0	1.49	1.49	F	F	6.354	366.354	84	350.7390628119	0.16932177042937	16	1	4	2	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2025-09-30 04:00:05	FORECAST	2026	10	90	30.056	29.552	29.804	0	0	1.38	1.38	F	F	-1.944	360.056	84	350.7390628119	0.043847649350986	16	1	4	2	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L