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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, October 8, 2025

[ Tuesday, October 7, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, October 9, 2025 ]

DAY 8 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/09/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.57°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.40°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.99°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.455
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 398

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.92 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.41 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 86
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 352.61 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 88

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-09 04:00:03OBSERVATION202688848.5700841.3999644.9850200.00999999999999090.00999999999999092.352.36FF16.57008397.5700886352.61036597531 00.4554222272954816 24215220DRYL
2025-10-09 00:00:01FORECAST202688844.18635.09639.6410002.352.35FF12.186393.18686352.6103659753100.316763871486981624215220DRYL
2025-10-08 12:00:02FORECAST202688843.08835.16839.1280002.352.35FF11.088392.08886352.6103659753100.284971396222671624215220DRYL
2025-10-08 08:00:02FORECAST202688845.15835.61840.3880002.352.35FF13.158394.15886352.6103659753100.346094285072671624215220DRYL
2025-10-08 04:00:04FORECAST202688844.72635.07839.9020002.352.35FF12.726393.72686352.6103659753100.332931221283881624215220DRYL
2025-10-08 00:00:02FORECAST202688846.00436.64441.3240002.352.35FF14.004389.00486352.6103659753100.372404416236731624215220DRYL
2025-10-07 20:00:01FORECAST202688845.57236.4284100.0007874020.0007874022.352.350787402FF13.572387.57286352.6103659753100.358885989076941624215220DRYL
2025-10-07 16:00:02FORECAST202688844.85236.7740.81100.0007874020.0007874022.352.350787402FF12.852386.85286352.6103659753100.336750132213211624215220DRYL
2025-10-07 12:00:02FORECAST202688843.6136.28439.9470002.352.35FF11.61385.6186352.6103659753100.299896632651861624215220DRYL
2025-10-07 08:00:02FORECAST202688843.59235.00639.2990002.352.35FF11.592387.59286352.6103659753100.299376129928341624215220DRYL
2025-10-07 04:00:03FORECAST202688843.32235.70839.5150002.352.35FF11.322387.32286352.6103659753100.291618217086591624215220DRYL
2025-10-07 00:00:01FORECAST202688842.58435.00638.7950002.352.35FF10.584383.58486352.6103659753100.270905421477641624215220DRYL
2025-10-06 20:00:02FORECAST202688841.70234.46638.08400.0015748040.0015748042.352.351574804FF9.702381.70286352.6103659753100.247152613200031614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-06 16:00:01FORECAST202688842.00833.94437.97600.003937010.003937012.352.35393701FF10.008382.00886352.6103659753100.25526540945481624215220DRYL
2025-10-06 12:00:01FORECAST202688841.8133.7137.7600.0019685050.0019685052.352.351968505FF9.81382.8186352.6103659753100.250000136882941624215220DRYL
2025-10-06 08:00:02FORECAST202688841.55833.87237.71500.003937010.003937012.352.35393701FF9.558385.55886352.6103659753100.24338302240911614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-06 04:00:02FORECAST202688842.06232.937.48100.0031496080.0031496082.352.353149608FF10.062384.06286352.6103659753100.256711374671811624215220DRYL
2025-10-06 00:00:02FORECAST202688844.40234.37639.3890002.352.35FF12.402385.40286352.6103659753100.323191135543251624215220DRYL
2025-10-05 20:00:02FORECAST202688842.96234.05238.5070002.352.35FF10.962383.96286352.6103659753100.281422487271631624215220DRYL
2025-10-05 16:00:01FORECAST202688843.37634.35838.8670002.352.35FF11.376384.37686352.6103659753100.293162291063421624215220DRYL
2025-10-05 12:00:02FORECAST202688841.39633.90837.6520002.352.35FF9.396381.39686352.6103659753100.239179586487991614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-05 08:00:02FORECAST202688845.64434.71840.1810002.352.35FF13.644386.64486352.6103659753100.361127356922461624215220DRYL
2025-10-05 04:00:03FORECAST202688846.2235.31240.7660002.352.35FF14.22389.2286352.6103659753100.379224246300981624215220DRYL
2025-10-05 00:00:01FORECAST202688841.93633.63837.78700.0070866180.0070866181.931.937086618FF9.936386.93686352.6103659753100.253344090689741624215220DRYL
2025-10-04 20:00:01FORECAST202688839.8332.34236.08600.0070866180.0070866181.931.937086618FF7.83385.8386352.6103659753100.200654208063031614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-04 16:00:01FORECAST202688838.64230.66834.65500.0102362260.0102362261.931.940236226FF6.642384.64286352.6103659753100.174074251988951614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-04 12:00:02FORECAST202688842.0831.4636.7700.1641733170.1641733171.932.094173317FF10.08387.0886352.6103659753100.257194307648651624225240DRYM
2025-10-04 08:00:02FORECAST202688839.43431.6435.53700.1641733170.1641733171.932.094173317FF7.434383.43486352.6103659753100.1915356672521614225235DRYL
2025-10-04 04:00:03FORECAST202688841.84631.80236.82400.1661418220.1661418221.942.106141822FF9.846385.84686352.6103659753100.250953159707431624225240DRYM
2025-10-04 00:00:02FORECAST202688846.38234.73640.5590001.921.92FF14.382394.38286352.6103659753100.38436402388691624215220DRYL
2025-10-03 20:00:02FORECAST202688848.81237.59843.2050001.921.92FF16.812397.81286352.6103659753100.463411058178821624215220DRYL
2025-10-03 16:00:02FORECAST202688848.68638.15643.4210001.981.98FF16.686396.68686352.6103659753100.459248161122471624215220DRYL
2025-10-03 12:00:01FORECAST202688843.32237.9440.63100.1405512570.1405512571.962.100551257FF11.322391.32286352.6103659753100.291618217086591624225240DRYM
2025-10-03 08:00:02FORECAST202688841.61234.62838.1200.1405512570.1405512571.962.100551257FF9.612389.61286352.6103659753100.244792973121581614225235DRYL
2025-10-03 04:00:03FORECAST202688840.2834.8837.5800.1350394430.1350394431.952.085039443FF8.28386.2886352.6103659753100.211325824154791614225235DRYL
2025-10-03 00:00:02FORECAST202688838.28231.7335.00600.3027560690.3027560691.962.262756069FF6.282384.28286352.6103659753100.166482122602111614225235DRYL
2025-10-02 20:00:02FORECAST202688839.0231.85635.43800.3027560690.3027560691.962.262756069FF7.02381.0286352.6103659753100.182278412086151614225235DRYL
2025-10-02 16:00:02FORECAST202688839.14632.01835.58200.3043308730.3043308731.922.224330873FF7.146381.14686352.6103659753100.1850658488341614225235DRYL
2025-10-02 12:00:02FORECAST202688841.30635.61838.46200.2496064340.2496064341.912.159606434FF9.306383.30686352.6103659753100.236861570659331614225235DRYL
2025-10-02 08:00:03FORECAST202688842.58435.72639.15500.2464568260.2464568261.922.166456826FF10.584382.58486352.6103659753100.270905421477641624225240DRYM
2025-10-02 04:00:04FORECAST202688842.7134.57438.64200.2456694240.2456694241.952.195669424FF10.71382.7186352.6103659753100.274389248231571624225240DRYM
2025-10-02 00:00:03FORECAST202688847.0334.740.86500.1330709380.1330709382.082.213070938FF15.03385.0386352.6103659753100.4051185423551624225240DRYM
2025-10-01 20:00:04FORECAST202688844.9633.51239.23600.1330709380.1330709382.252.383070938FF12.96378.9686352.6103659753100.340036946056741624225240DRYM
2025-10-01 16:00:02FORECAST202688842.99833.92638.46200.1334646390.1334646392.252.383464639FF10.998379.99886352.6103659753100.282434284667081624225240DRYM
2025-10-01 12:00:02FORECAST202688851.65636.30243.9790002.242.24FF19.656385.65686352.6103659753100.557565216538581634215222.5DRYL
2025-10-01 08:00:02FORECAST202688851.74638.26445.0050002.422.42FF19.746384.74686352.6103659753100.560519989777751634215222.5DRYL
2025-10-01 04:00:04FORECAST202688850.61236.69843.6550002.322.32FF18.612382.61286352.6103659753100.523097849726481634215222.5DRYL
2025-10-01 00:00:02FORECAST202688851.69238.89445.2930002.042.04FF19.692381.69286352.6103659753100.5587475195781634215222.5DRYL
2025-09-30 20:00:02FORECAST202688851.69238.4845.0860002.22.2FF19.692383.69286352.6103659753100.5587475195781634215222.5DRYL
2025-09-30 16:00:02FORECAST202688850.77438.04844.4110002.222.22FF18.774380.77486352.6103659753100.528464180189481634215222.5DRYL
2025-09-30 12:00:02FORECAST202688853.13240.92847.030002.142.14FF21.132391.13286352.6103659753100.605501729798611634215222.5DRYL
2025-09-30 08:00:02FORECAST202688853.2440.96447.1020001.981.98FF21.24387.2486352.6103659753100.608956509805531634215222.5DRYL
2025-09-30 04:00:05FORECAST202688852.82640.44246.6340001.871.87FF20.826390.82686352.6103659753100.595668889781761634215222.5DRYL
2025-09-30 00:00:03FORECAST202688851.74640.145.9230001.981.98FF19.746385.74686352.6103659753100.560519989777751634215222.5DRYL
2025-09-29 20:00:03FORECAST202688850.43239.7445.0860002.582.58FF18.432382.43286352.6103659753100.517130386074331634215222.5DRYL
2025-09-29 16:00:02FORECAST202688849.89239.54244.7170002.732.73FF17.892379.89286352.6103659753100.499210306853081634215222.5DRYL
2025-09-29 12:00:02FORECAST202688854.28437.6745.9770003.413.41FF22.284379.28486352.6103659753100.641873143885721634215222.5DRYL
2025-09-29 08:00:02FORECAST202688854.28437.6745.9770003.213.21FF22.284372.28486352.6103659753100.641873143885721634215222.5DRYL
2025-09-29 04:00:04FORECAST202688847.82237.3142.5660003.143.14FF15.822360.82286352.6103659753100.43084646811551624215220DRYL
2025-09-29 00:00:03FORECAST202688842.9840.22641.6030003.053.05FF10.98344.9886352.6103659753100.281928167551631624215220DRYL
2025-09-28 20:00:03FORECAST202688839.12834.17836.6530003.193.19FF7.128342.12886352.6103659753100.184666033948141614215217.5DRYL
2025-09-28 16:00:03FORECAST202688842.1732.97237.5710003.143.14FF10.17352.1786352.6103659753100.259616028865081624215220DRYL
2025-09-28 12:00:03FORECAST202688831.58625.98828.7870003.693.69FF-0.414350.58686352.6103659753100.0634756779311251614215217.5DRYL
2025-09-28 08:00:03FORECAST202688836.4129.26432.8370003.763.76TF4.41361.4186352.6103659753100.130493133582311614215217.5DRYL
2025-09-28 04:00:04FORECAST202688841.91839.4740.6940003.633.63FF9.918365.91886352.6103659753100.252864949835631624215220DRYL