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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, October 7, 2025

[ Monday, October 6, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, October 8, 2025 ]

DAY 7 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/08/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.02°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.01°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 53.02°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.769
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 414

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.91 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.40 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 87
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 353.54 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 87

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-08 04:00:03OBSERVATION202678761.0199645.0100453.0150002.352.35FF29.01996414.0199687353.54069783457 00.7690587360235816 44315227.5DRYL
2025-10-08 00:00:01FORECAST202678754.66240.92847.7950002.352.35FF22.662407.66287353.5406978345700.585035494488331634315225DRYL
2025-10-07 12:00:02FORECAST202678754.46440.83847.6510002.352.35FF22.464407.46487353.5406978345700.578700460515291634315225DRYL
2025-10-07 08:00:02FORECAST202678755.95841.2748.6140002.352.35FF23.958408.95887353.5406978345700.625886092870211634315225DRYL
2025-10-07 04:00:03FORECAST202678755.6741.12648.3980002.352.35FF23.67408.6787353.5406978345700.616911945972071634315225DRYL
2025-10-07 00:00:01FORECAST202678756.42641.97249.1990002.352.35FF24.426406.42687353.5406978345700.640322762099671634315225DRYL
2025-10-06 20:00:02FORECAST202678756.31842.36849.3430002.352.35FF24.318405.31887353.5406978345700.637008076890071634315225DRYL
2025-10-06 16:00:01FORECAST202678756.42642.5349.4780002.352.35FF24.426405.42687353.5406978345700.640322762099671634315225DRYL
2025-10-06 12:00:01FORECAST202678756.5742.60249.5860002.352.35FF24.57405.5787353.5406978345700.644725943082461634315225DRYL
2025-10-06 08:00:02FORECAST202678757.09242.33249.7120002.352.35FF25.092409.09287353.5406978345700.660522480372541634315225DRYL
2025-10-06 04:00:02FORECAST202678756.28241.16248.7220002.352.35FF24.282407.28287353.5406978345700.635900883696631634315225DRYL
2025-10-06 00:00:01FORECAST202678755.97641.41448.6950002.352.35FF23.976405.97687353.5406978345700.626444775982911634315225DRYL
2025-10-05 20:00:02FORECAST202678756.24641.61248.9290002.352.35FF24.246406.24687353.5406978345700.634792555498071634315225DRYL
2025-10-05 16:00:01FORECAST202678755.97641.16248.5690002.352.35FF23.976405.97687353.5406978345700.626444775982911634315225DRYL
2025-10-05 12:00:01FORECAST202678755.41841.39648.4070002.352.35FF23.418405.41887353.5406978345700.609007590985571634315225DRYL
2025-10-05 08:00:02FORECAST202678755.23841.21648.2270002.352.35FF23.238406.23887353.5406978345700.603333719680291634315225DRYL
2025-10-05 04:00:03FORECAST202678755.56241.59448.5780002.352.35FF23.562407.56287353.5406978345700.613530108933461634315225DRYL
2025-10-05 00:00:01FORECAST202678755.14840.06447.6060001.931.93FF23.148410.14887353.5406978345700.600488477543181634315225DRYL
2025-10-04 20:00:01FORECAST202678755.14840.47847.8130001.931.93FF23.148411.14887353.5406978345700.600488477543181634315225DRYL
2025-10-04 16:00:01FORECAST202678754.7739.90247.3360001.931.93FF22.77410.7787353.5406978345700.588481782701481634315225DRYL
2025-10-04 12:00:02FORECAST202678754.62640.13647.3810001.931.93FF22.626409.62687353.5406978345700.58388526232751634315225DRYL
2025-10-04 08:00:02FORECAST202678755.97640.40648.1910001.931.93FF23.976408.97687353.5406978345700.626444775982911634315225DRYL
2025-10-04 04:00:03FORECAST202678754.82440.31647.570001.941.94FF22.824408.82487353.5406978345700.590202388336881634315225DRYL
2025-10-04 00:00:01FORECAST202678756.5742.78249.6760001.921.92FF24.57412.5787353.5406978345700.644725943082461634315225DRYL
2025-10-03 20:00:02FORECAST202678756.53443.17849.8560001.921.92FF24.534413.53487353.5406978345700.643626929856441634315225DRYL
2025-10-03 16:00:02FORECAST202678756.40843.41249.910001.981.98FF24.408413.40887353.5406978345700.639771038854481634315225DRYL
2025-10-03 12:00:01FORECAST202678755.5843.30449.4420001.961.96FF23.58412.5887353.5406978345700.614094355173651634315225DRYL
2025-10-03 08:00:01FORECAST202678755.88643.05249.4690001.961.96FF23.886412.88687353.5406978345700.623648727053331634315225DRYL
2025-10-03 04:00:03FORECAST202678754.33841.16247.750001.951.95FF22.338411.33887353.5406978345700.574658333416711634315225DRYL
2025-10-03 00:00:02FORECAST202678754.33839.61446.9760001.961.96FF22.338411.33887353.5406978345700.574658333416711634315225DRYL
2025-10-02 20:00:02FORECAST202678753.81640.15446.9850001.961.96FF21.816406.81687353.5406978345700.557833293874711634315225DRYL
2025-10-02 16:00:02FORECAST202678753.72640.29847.0120001.921.92FF21.726406.72687353.5406978345700.554920971128851634315225DRYL
2025-10-02 12:00:02FORECAST202678754.33842.15248.2450001.911.91FF22.338407.33887353.5406978345700.574658333416711634315225DRYL
2025-10-02 08:00:03FORECAST202678754.51840.89247.7050001.921.92FF22.518404.51887353.5406978345700.580430291226621634315225DRYL
2025-10-02 04:00:04FORECAST202678753.7841.0947.4350001.951.95FF21.78404.7887353.5406978345700.556668730766141634315225DRYL
2025-10-02 00:00:03FORECAST202678753.54640.58647.0660002.082.08FF21.546402.54687353.5406978345700.549087580001111634315225DRYL
2025-10-01 20:00:03FORECAST202678753.09640.40646.7510002.252.25FF21.096399.09687353.5406978345700.534460378845461634315225DRYL
2025-10-01 16:00:02FORECAST202678753.09640.06446.580002.252.25FF21.096402.09687353.5406978345700.534460378845461634315225DRYL
2025-10-01 12:00:02FORECAST202678752.89837.70645.3020002.242.24FF20.898398.89887353.5406978345700.528008442649111634215222.5DRYL
2025-10-01 08:00:02FORECAST202678752.98837.50845.2480002.422.42FF20.988397.98887353.5406978345700.530942154663631634215222.5DRYL
2025-10-01 04:00:04FORECAST202678753.07837.68845.3830002.322.32FF21.078397.07887353.5406978345700.533874187666771634215222.5DRYL
2025-10-01 00:00:02FORECAST202678753.7838.6646.220002.042.04FF21.78394.7887353.5406978345700.556668730766141634215222.5DRYL
2025-09-30 20:00:02FORECAST202678754.64439.32646.9850002.22.2FF22.644396.64487353.5406978345700.584460468857051634215222.5DRYL
2025-09-30 16:00:02FORECAST202678754.03239.05646.5440002.222.22FF22.032395.03287353.5406978345700.564809835516171634215222.5DRYL
2025-09-30 12:00:02FORECAST202678756.64242.74649.6940002.142.14FF24.642402.64287353.5406978345700.646920355991571634315225DRYL
2025-09-30 08:00:02FORECAST202678754.2338.94846.5890001.981.98FF22.23399.2387353.5406978345700.571187379930761634315225DRYL
2025-09-30 04:00:04FORECAST202678754.7739.23647.0030001.871.87FF22.77402.7787353.5406978345700.588481782701481634315225DRYL
2025-09-30 00:00:03FORECAST202678755.27439.57847.4260001.981.98FF23.274399.27487353.5406978345700.604470287425321634315225DRYL
2025-09-29 20:00:03FORECAST202678753.8738.58846.2290002.582.58FF21.87396.8787353.5406978345700.559579198765541634215222.5DRYL
2025-09-29 16:00:02FORECAST202678752.26838.2145.2390002.732.73FF20.268395.26887353.5406978345700.507438799521331634215222.5DRYL
2025-09-29 12:00:02FORECAST202678749.40635.85242.6290003.413.41FF17.406390.40687353.5406978345700.414555451060181624215220DRYL
2025-09-29 08:00:02FORECAST202678749.40635.85242.6290003.213.21FF17.406383.40687353.5406978345700.414555451060181624215220DRYL
2025-09-29 04:00:04FORECAST202678748.4735.04241.7560003.143.14FF16.47378.4787353.5406978345700.384940463825981624215220DRYL
2025-09-29 00:00:03FORECAST202678750.14435.3342.7370003.053.05FF18.144367.14487353.5406978345700.438262396383881624215220DRYL
2025-09-28 20:00:03FORECAST202678748.99234.23241.6120003.193.19FF16.992367.99287353.5406978345700.401385727038151624215220DRYL
2025-09-28 16:00:03FORECAST202678750.68437.05843.871000.013.133.14FF18.684374.68487353.5406978345700.455755495229021624215220DRYL
2025-09-28 12:00:03FORECAST202678751.29633.09842.1970003.693.69FF19.296384.29687353.5406978345700.475683390883081624215220DRYL
2025-09-28 08:00:02FORECAST202678751.40437.8544.6270003.763.76TF19.404390.40487353.5406978345700.479207838091531624215220DRYL
2025-09-28 04:00:04FORECAST202678752.3440.40646.3730003.633.63FF20.34389.3487353.5406978345700.509791648535181634215222.5DRYL
2025-09-28 00:00:03FORECAST202678742.6231.98237.30100033FF10.62361.6287353.5406978345700.220092790315611614215217.5DRYL
2025-09-27 20:00:03FORECAST202678742.6231.98237.3010003.113.11FF10.62361.6287353.5406978345700.220092790315611614215217.5DRYL
2025-09-27 16:00:03FORECAST202678742.72833.83638.2820003.173.17FF10.728360.72887353.5406978345700.222723152283611614215217.5DRYL
2025-09-27 12:00:03FORECAST202678740.02833.83636.932000.022.52.52FF8.028360.02887353.5406978345700.162471680649851614215217.5DRYL
2025-09-27 08:00:02FORECAST202678740.02833.83636.932000.022.472.49FF8.028353.02887353.5406978345700.162471680649851614215217.5DRYL
2025-09-27 04:00:04FORECAST202678731.9130.39831.15400.0570866450.3270866452.62.927086645FF-0.09330.9187353.5406978345700.0493920660354351614225235DRYL