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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, October 4, 2025

[ Friday, October 3, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, October 5, 2025 ]

DAY 4 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/05/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.94°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.77°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.86°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.209
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 440

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.42 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.55 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.40 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.40 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 90
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 356.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 84

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-05 04:00:03OBSERVATION202648441.9399637.7700839.8550200.419999999999960.519999999999961.832.35FF9.93996439.9399690356.31057557841 00.2085788467714616 14335260DRYH
2025-10-05 00:00:01FORECAST202648444.1535.09639.62300.003937010.103937011.831.93393701FF12.15442.1590356.3105755784100.270657876275821624325245DRYM
2025-10-04 12:00:02FORECAST202648445.7735.13240.45100.0047244120.1047244121.831.934724412FF13.77443.7790356.3105755784100.321378196420841624325245DRYM
2025-10-04 08:00:02FORECAST202648444.00633.92638.96600.0047244120.1047244121.831.934724412FF12.006442.00690356.3105755784100.266350001729231624325245DRYM
2025-10-04 04:00:02FORECAST202648445.30233.56639.43400.0074803190.1074803191.831.937480319FF13.302443.30290356.3105755784100.306320573578211624325245DRYM
2025-10-04 00:00:01FORECAST202648445.98634.37640.18100.0090551230.0890551231.831.919055123FF13.986442.98690356.3105755784100.328430095634241624315222.5DRYL
2025-10-03 20:00:02FORECAST202648446.2235.1540.68500.0141732360.0941732361.831.924173236FF14.22444.2290356.3105755784100.336139112806721624325245DRYM
2025-10-03 16:00:02FORECAST202648445.64437.05841.35100.074803190.154803191.831.98480319FF13.644443.64490356.3105755784100.317293897587391624325245DRYM
2025-10-03 12:00:01FORECAST202648445.6837.18441.43200.0500000270.1300000271.831.960000027FF13.68443.6890356.3105755784100.318458601806611624325245DRYM
2025-10-03 08:00:01FORECAST202648445.7737.25641.51300.0527559340.1327559341.831.962755934FF13.77443.7790356.3105755784100.321378196420841624325245DRYM
2025-10-03 04:00:03FORECAST202648445.69837.3141.50400.0381889970.1181889971.831.948188997FF13.698443.69890356.3105755784100.319041627824761624325245DRYM
2025-10-03 00:00:02FORECAST202648445.62637.05841.34200.0893701270.1293701271.831.959370127FF13.626444.62690356.3105755784100.316712221790151624325245DRYM
2025-10-02 20:00:02FORECAST202648445.19436.96841.08100.1074803730.1274803731.831.957480373FF13.194444.19490356.3105755784100.302890446521091624325245DRYM
2025-10-02 16:00:01FORECAST202648445.28437.25641.2700.074803190.094803191.831.92480319FF13.284444.28490356.3105755784100.30574769556151624325245DRYM
2025-10-02 12:00:01FORECAST202648445.66237.81441.73800.0566929440.0766929441.831.906692944FF13.662444.66290356.3105755784100.317876024659621624315222.5DRYL
2025-10-02 08:00:02FORECAST202648444.22236.24840.23500.0661417680.0861417681.831.916141768FF12.222443.22290356.3105755784100.272824769763491624315222.5DRYL
2025-10-02 04:00:03FORECAST202648444.58236.10440.34300.1082677750.1182677751.831.948267775FF12.582442.58290356.3105755784100.283786444503821624325245DRYM
2025-10-02 00:00:02FORECAST202648444.5135.85240.18100.0586614490.0886614491.992.078661449FF12.51442.5190356.3105755784100.281577350409371624315222.5DRYL
2025-10-01 20:00:02FORECAST202648444.43835.90640.17200.0594488510.0994488512.152.249448851FF12.438441.43890356.3105755784100.279376574386171624325245DRYM
2025-10-01 16:00:02FORECAST202648444.18635.92440.05500.0578740470.0978740472.152.247874047FF12.186442.18690356.3105755784100.271740249329781624325245DRYM
2025-10-01 12:00:01FORECAST202648443.82634.68239.25400.0503937280.0903937282.152.240393728FF11.826441.82690356.3105755784100.261014325331311624325245DRYM
2025-10-01 08:00:01FORECAST202648443.62834.84439.23600.0240157610.0640157612.362.424015761FF11.628441.62890356.3105755784100.255209126464171624315222.5DRYL
2025-10-01 04:00:03FORECAST202648443.48434.80839.14600.0255905650.0755905652.242.315590565FF11.484442.48490356.3105755784100.251029903592721624315222.5DRYL
2025-10-01 00:00:02FORECAST202648444.25833.78239.0200.0429134090.1329134091.912.042913409FF12.258440.25890356.3105755784100.273911430277811624325245DRYM
2025-09-30 20:00:01FORECAST202648443.86233.83638.84900.0421260070.1521260072.052.202126007FF11.862439.86290356.3105755784100.262077053481341624325245DRYM
2025-09-30 16:00:02FORECAST202648443.23233.20638.21900.0429134090.1429134092.082.222913409FF11.232439.23290356.3105755784100.24380417620511614325240DRYM
2025-09-30 12:00:01FORECAST202648444.43834.26839.35300.0098425250.1198425252.022.139842525FF12.438440.43890356.3105755784100.279376574386171624325245DRYM
2025-09-30 08:00:02FORECAST202648443.9735.20439.58700.0098425250.1198425251.861.979842525FF11.97439.9790356.3105755784100.265278472948671624325245DRYM
2025-09-30 04:00:04FORECAST202648446.23834.98840.61300.0074803190.1874803191.681.867480319FF14.238443.23890356.3105755784100.336735029024151624325245DRYM
2025-09-30 00:00:03FORECAST202648446.86834.46640.66700.0007874020.3707874021.611.980787402FF14.868437.86890356.3105755784100.3578408535871624325245DRYM
2025-09-29 20:00:02FORECAST202648446.52633.63840.08200.0007874020.3507874022.232.580787402FF14.526436.52690356.3105755784100.346324545058111624325245DRYM
2025-09-29 16:00:01FORECAST202648446.20235.90641.05400.0263779670.3863779672.342.726377967FF14.202438.20290356.3105755784100.335543607836121624325245DRYM
2025-09-29 12:00:02FORECAST202648446.20236.3241.26100.094488240.904488242.513.41448824TF14.202437.20290356.3105755784100.335543607836121624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-29 08:00:02FORECAST202648444.9635.49240.22600.094488240.924488242.293.21448824FF12.96433.9690356.3105755784100.295518122461241624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-29 04:00:04FORECAST202648443.48434.6139.04700.0960630440.9560630442.183.136063044FF11.484432.48490356.3105755784100.251029903592721624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-29 00:00:02FORECAST202648441.43234.03437.73300.1559055960.8659055962.183.045905596FF9.432419.43290356.3105755784100.19559480766031614335260DRYH
2025-09-28 20:00:03FORECAST202648441.39634.05237.72400.1543307920.9043307922.293.194330792FF9.396422.39690356.3105755784100.19469357647721614335260DRYH
2025-09-28 16:00:02FORECAST202648441.86434.28638.07500.165354420.905354422.223.12535442FF9.864422.86490356.3105755784100.206605594609791614335260DRYH
2025-09-28 12:00:03FORECAST202648445.6834.37640.02800.0015748041.3815748042.313.691574804TF13.68428.6890356.3105755784100.318458601806611624345290DRYVH
2025-09-28 08:00:02FORECAST202648446.38235.38440.88300.0015748041.3815748042.383.761574804TF14.382433.38290356.3105755784100.341517006587921624345290DRYVH
2025-09-28 04:00:04FORECAST202648446.70634.55640.63100.0015748041.3515748042.283.631574804TF14.706433.70690356.3105755784100.352368865664121624345290DRYVH
2025-09-28 00:00:02FORECAST202648442.8932.66637.77800.098425250.978425252.022.99842525FF10.89418.8990356.3105755784100.234179889611511614335260DRYH
2025-09-27 20:00:03FORECAST202648444.5133.04438.77700.098425250.978425252.133.10842525FF12.51418.5190356.3105755784100.281577350409371624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-27 16:00:02FORECAST202648443.57433.45838.51600.1582678021.1082678022.063.168267802FF11.574417.57490356.3105755784100.253637672463421624345290DRYVH
2025-09-27 12:00:02FORECAST202648445.91434.6140.26200.1287402270.7187402271.782.498740227FF13.914422.91490356.3105755784100.326072509360961624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-27 08:00:02FORECAST202648438.42630.34434.38500.1287402270.7187402271.752.468740227FF6.426418.42690356.3105755784100.129160447170391614335260DRYH
2025-09-27 04:00:04FORECAST202648437.34630.27233.80900.129921330.769921331.832.59992133FF5.346415.34690356.3105755784100.109634486355831614335260DRYH
2025-09-27 00:00:03FORECAST202648442.38634.7938.58800.0161417410.8161417412.923.736141741TF10.386414.38690356.3105755784100.220387608677921614335260DRYH
2025-09-26 20:00:02FORECAST202648443.8836.93240.40600.015748040.805748042.963.76574804TF11.88415.8890356.3105755784100.262609246857721624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-26 16:00:03FORECAST202648443.91635.56439.7400.015748040.685748042.973.65574804TF11.916413.91690356.3105755784100.263675288001931624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-26 12:00:02FORECAST202648446.74239.30843.02500.015748041.085748042.653.73574804TF14.742417.74290356.3105755784100.353582273692421624345290DRYVH
2025-09-26 08:00:03FORECAST202648446.74239.30843.02500.015748041.085748042.683.76574804TF14.742420.74290356.3105755784100.353582273692421624345290DRYVH
2025-09-26 04:00:03FORECAST202648449.53239.41644.47400.074803191.384803192.754.13480319TF17.532425.53290356.3105755784100.451227979753951624345290WETMH
2025-09-26 00:00:03FORECAST202648453.13241.21647.174000.672.292.96FF21.132423.13290356.3105755784100.580834602429491634335275DRYVH
2025-09-25 20:00:02FORECAST202648453.3341.50447.417000.642.312.95FF21.33423.3390356.3105755784100.587839731516261634335275DRYVH
2025-09-25 16:00:02FORECAST202648455.8542.5349.1900.0165354420.5765354422.563.136535442FF23.85425.8590356.3105755784100.673863486739961634335275DRYVH
2025-09-25 12:00:02FORECAST202648460.24240.80250.522000.262.232.49FF28.242439.24290356.3105755784100.802091663985661644325255DRYH
2025-09-25 08:00:02FORECAST202648460.24240.80250.522000.262.232.49FF28.242443.24290356.3105755784100.802091663985661644325255DRYH
2025-09-25 04:00:04FORECAST202648459.41441.03650.225000.311.982.29FF27.414445.41490356.3105755784100.780526922958411644325255DRYH
2025-09-25 00:00:02FORECAST202648440.47834.12437.301000.131.751.88FF8.478426.47890356.3105755784100.172571289697621614325240DRYM
2025-09-24 20:00:03FORECAST202648440.47834.12437.301000.131.751.88FF8.478428.47890356.3105755784100.172571289697621614325240DRYM
2025-09-24 16:00:02FORECAST202648440.65834.32237.49000.121.831.95FF8.658433.65890356.3105755784100.176778014811614325240DRYM
2025-09-24 12:00:03FORECAST202648436.98635.27636.131000.41.752.15FF4.986421.98690356.3105755784100.103621227791261614325240DRYM
2025-09-24 10:22:49FORECAST202648436.98635.27636.131000.41.752.15FF4.986418.98690356.3105755784100.103621227791261614325240DRYM