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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, October 3, 2025

[ Thursday, October 2, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, October 4, 2025 ]

DAY 3 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/04/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.08°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.56°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.32°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.379
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 15
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 464

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.05 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.99 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.98 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.98 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 91
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 357.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 83

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 67.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-04 04:00:02OBSERVATION202638347.0800435.5600441.3200400.0200000000000950.94000000000010.991.9300000000001FF15.08004464.0800491357.22687332289 00.3790403505073516 24335267.5DRYH
2025-10-04 00:00:01FORECAST202638345.7731.78438.77700.0003937010.9203937010.991.910393701FF13.77462.7791357.2268733228900.334558954462691624335267.5DRYH
2025-10-03 12:00:01FORECAST202638346.59831.87439.236000.920.991.91FF14.598463.59891357.2268733228900.362449067523961624335267.5DRYH
2025-10-03 08:00:01FORECAST202638347.35432.12639.7400.0035433090.9235433090.991.913543309FF15.354464.35491357.2268733228900.388572277400681624335267.5DRYH
2025-10-03 04:00:02FORECAST202638347.3931.71239.55100.0003937010.9203937010.991.910393701FF15.39464.3991357.2268733228900.389829970008071624335267.5DRYH
2025-10-03 00:00:01FORECAST202638347.7531.58639.66800.0007874020.8807874020.991.870787402FF15.75464.7591357.2268733228900.402468307474741624335267.5DRYH
2025-10-02 20:00:02FORECAST202638347.04833.42240.23500.007874020.857874020.991.84787402FF15.048465.04891357.2268733228900.377930241651881624335267.5DRYH
2025-10-02 16:00:01FORECAST202638346.95833.81840.38800.0090551230.8590551230.991.849055123FF14.958464.95891357.2268733228900.374817371531624335267.5DRYH
2025-10-02 12:00:01FORECAST202638347.35434.82641.0900.007874020.857874020.991.84787402FF15.354465.35491357.2268733228900.388572277400681624335267.5DRYH
2025-10-02 08:00:01FORECAST202638346.99434.05240.52300.0055118140.8555118140.991.845511814FF14.994464.99491357.2268733228900.376061554280931624335267.5DRYH
2025-10-02 04:00:03FORECAST202638346.32833.96240.14500.0098425250.8498425250.991.839842525FF14.328464.32891357.2268733228900.353265310402981624335267.5DRYH
2025-10-02 00:00:02FORECAST202638346.25633.51239.88400.0094488241.0294488240.992.019448824FF14.256464.25691357.2268733228900.350830404760361624345290DRYVH
2025-10-01 20:00:01FORECAST202638345.96833.69239.8300.0090551231.1990551230.992.189055123FF13.968462.96891357.2268733228900.341152744470111624345290DRYVH
2025-10-01 16:00:02FORECAST202638346.11233.76439.93800.007874021.197874020.992.18787402FF14.112464.11291357.2268733228900.345979005756361624345290DRYVH
2025-10-01 12:00:01FORECAST202638346.2233.6239.9200.0220472561.2020472560.992.192047256FF14.22464.2291357.2268733228900.349615236811191624345290DRYVH
2025-10-01 08:00:01FORECAST202638345.71633.36839.54200.0228346581.4128346580.992.402834658FF13.716463.71691357.2268733228900.332769357501581624345290DRYVH
2025-10-01 04:00:03FORECAST202638345.57233.60239.58700.0244094621.3044094620.992.294409462FF13.572464.57291357.2268733228900.328015769225141624345290DRYVH
2025-10-01 00:00:01FORECAST202638344.56433.45839.01100.0527559340.8327559341.172.002755934FF12.564461.56491357.2268733228900.295550817502791624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-30 20:00:01FORECAST202638344.81633.54839.18200.051181130.751181131.412.16118113FF12.816461.81691357.2268733228900.303528262902721624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-30 16:00:02FORECAST202638344.92433.58439.25400.0547244390.7747244391.412.184724439FF12.924461.92491357.2268733228900.306976328967291624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-30 12:00:01FORECAST202638345.2333.58439.40700.0267716680.7167716681.412.126771668FF13.23462.2391357.2268733228900.316838106075131624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-30 08:00:02FORECAST202638345.44633.85439.6500.0259842660.6859842661.281.965984266FF13.446462.44691357.2268733228900.323879061173181624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-30 04:00:03FORECAST202638345.4133.67439.54200.0295275750.6195275751.241.859527575FF13.41463.4191357.2268733228900.322701097558111624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-30 00:00:02FORECAST202638345.35633.67439.51500.0035433090.6935433091.291.983543309FF13.356457.35691357.2268733228900.320937483831251624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-29 20:00:02FORECAST202638344.92433.20639.065000.721.862.58FF12.924455.92491357.2268733228900.306976328967291624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-29 16:00:01FORECAST202638346.02234.01640.019000.811.892.7FF14.022458.02291357.2268733228900.342959602251061624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-29 12:00:01FORECAST202638346.434.44840.42400.1177165991.3977165991.923.317716599TF14.4457.491357.2268733228900.355706234353431624345290DRYVH
2025-09-29 08:00:02FORECAST202638346.02233.8939.95600.1177165991.4377165991.683.117716599TF14.022455.02291357.2268733228900.342959602251061624345290DRYVH
2025-09-29 04:00:04FORECAST202638345.48234.03439.75800.11811031.38811031.653.0381103FF13.482455.48291357.2268733228900.325058790048181624345290DRYVH
2025-09-29 00:00:02FORECAST202638344.22233.94439.08300.0870079211.2670079211.622.887007921FF12.222444.22291357.2268733228900.284881109840431624345290DRYVH
2025-09-28 20:00:02FORECAST202638344.72633.00838.86700.0850394161.3450394161.693.035039416FF12.726446.72691357.2268733228900.300668147561061624345290DRYVH
2025-09-28 16:00:02FORECAST202638344.83432.938.86700.0854331171.3254331171.632.955433117FF12.834446.83491357.2268733228900.304101739604471624345290DRYVH
2025-09-28 12:00:02FORECAST202638345.0534.39439.72200.4452758312.1152758311.573.685275831TF13.05449.0591357.2268733228900.3110207213667516243552112.5DRYVH
2025-09-28 08:00:02FORECAST202638344.88834.7939.83900.4452758312.2652758311.493.755275831TF12.888452.88891357.2268733228900.3058250566151816243552112.5DRYVH
2025-09-28 04:00:04FORECAST202638345.51835.09640.30700.4228348742.2728348741.363.632834874TF13.518452.51891357.2268733228900.3262402741423516243552112.5DRYVH
2025-09-28 00:00:02FORECAST202638342.38634.95238.66900.3645671261.5245671261.382.904567126FF10.386442.38691357.2268733228900.2309559308637216143552100DRYVH
2025-09-27 20:00:02FORECAST202638342.7135.34839.02900.3645671261.5345671261.483.014567126TF10.71439.7191357.2268733228900.2400391286825316143552100DRYVH
2025-09-27 16:00:02FORECAST202638341.8136.21239.01100.4444884291.5544884291.463.014488429TF9.81439.8191357.2268733228900.2152912823508616143552100DRYVH
2025-09-27 12:00:02FORECAST202638344.09636.540.29800.0996063531.1496063531.222.369606353FF12.096443.09691357.2268733228900.280996963577691624345290DRYVH
2025-09-27 08:00:02FORECAST202638343.75435.22239.48800.0996063531.1496063531.192.339606353FF11.754445.75491357.2268733228900.270585001538081624345290DRYVH
2025-09-27 04:00:04FORECAST202638343.9735.16839.56900.1000000541.2700000541.22.470000054FF11.97443.9791357.2268733228900.277138560324171624345290DRYVH
2025-09-27 00:00:03FORECAST202638343.733.51238.60600.1165354962.0565354961.663.716535496TF11.7437.791357.2268733228900.268958776004316243552112.5DRYVH
2025-09-26 20:00:02FORECAST202638343.73633.7138.72300.1051181672.0651181671.683.745118167TF11.736437.73691357.2268733228900.2700423817446316243552112.5DRYVH
2025-09-26 16:00:02FORECAST202638342.94433.5338.23700.1051181671.9251181671.713.635118167TF10.944435.94491357.2268733228900.2467182671529616143552100DRYVH
2025-09-26 12:00:02FORECAST202638345.98636.93241.45900.0106299272.0406299271.683.720629927TF13.986436.98691357.2268733228900.3417546285442416243552112.5DRYVH
2025-09-26 08:00:03FORECAST202638347.17438.26442.71900.0106299272.0406299271.713.750629927TF15.174440.17491357.2268733228900.3823015622812816243552112.5DRYVH
2025-09-26 04:00:03FORECAST202638348.72238.62443.67300.0566929442.2566929441.84.056692944TF16.722441.72291357.2268733228900.4370682351255316243552112.5WETMH
2025-09-26 00:00:03FORECAST202638347.28238.58842.93500.2287402811.5987402811.362.958740281TF15.282436.28291357.2268733228900.3860604046492616243552112.5DRYVH
2025-09-25 20:00:02FORECAST202638347.338.87643.08800.204724521.574724521.382.95472452FF15.3436.391357.2268733228900.3866879299022916243552112.5DRYVH
2025-09-25 16:00:02FORECAST202638347.71438.10242.90800.0110236281.5610236281.563.121023628TF15.714435.71491357.2268733228900.4011996385406816243552112.5DRYVH
2025-09-25 12:00:02FORECAST202638350.70239.63245.16700.0877953230.8177953231.672.487795323FF18.702444.70291357.2268733228900.50877068939061634335275DRYVH
2025-09-25 08:00:02FORECAST202638350.70239.63245.16700.0877953230.8177953231.672.487795323FF18.702448.70291357.2268733228900.50877068939061634335275DRYVH
2025-09-25 04:00:04FORECAST202638351.9839.41645.69800.0850394160.8450394161.442.285039416FF19.98451.9891357.2268733228900.555046627524831634335275DRYVH
2025-09-25 00:00:02FORECAST202638350.10837.43643.77200.0074803190.2774803191.61.877480319FF18.108452.10891357.2268733228900.487183666427631624325245DRYM
2025-09-24 20:00:03FORECAST202638350.10837.43643.77200.0074803190.2774803191.61.877480319FF18.108454.10891357.2268733228900.487183666427631624325245DRYM
2025-09-24 16:00:02FORECAST202638350.2738.44444.35700.0255905650.2755905651.671.945590565FF18.27459.2791357.2268733228900.493069973723051624325245DRYM
2025-09-24 12:00:03FORECAST202638347.91237.1342.52100.0641732630.6141732631.542.154173263FF15.912450.91291357.2268733228900.408189851396861624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-24 10:22:48FORECAST202638347.91237.1342.52100.0641732630.6141732631.542.154173263FF15.912447.91291357.2268733228900.408189851396861624335267.5DRYH