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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 2, 2025

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DAY 2 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/03/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.78°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.74°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.76°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.160
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 477

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.08 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.05 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.93 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.93 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 92
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 358.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 82

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 4
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 80.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-03 04:00:02OBSERVATION202628242.7800236.7399439.7599800.0799999999999271.02999999999990.881.9099999999999FF10.78002476.7800292358.13969574323 00.1603730917428416 14345280DRYVH
2025-10-03 00:00:01FORECAST202628242.69232.34237.51700.0381889970.9881889970.881.868188997FF10.692476.69292358.1396957432300.158451835068251614335260DRYH
2025-10-02 12:00:01FORECAST202628243.95232.39638.17400.0098425250.9598425250.881.839842525FF11.952477.95292358.1396957432300.187392127434541614335260DRYH
2025-10-02 08:00:01FORECAST202628243.6131.62237.61600.0062992160.9562992160.881.836299216FF11.61477.6192358.1396957432300.179232047578391614335260DRYH
2025-10-02 04:00:02FORECAST202628243.62830.66837.14800.0023622060.9523622060.881.832362206FF11.628477.62892358.1396957432300.179655885484131614335260DRYH
2025-10-02 00:00:02FORECAST202628244.11429.9337.02200.0228346581.1328346580.882.012834658FF12.114478.11492358.1396957432300.191336142090351614345280DRYVH
2025-10-01 20:00:01FORECAST202628243.48431.8237.65200.027559071.297559070.882.17755907FF11.484477.48492358.1396957432300.176282773957381614345280DRYVH
2025-10-01 16:00:02FORECAST202628243.64632.77438.2100.0283464721.2983464720.882.178346472FF11.646477.64692358.1396957432300.180080351152941614345280DRYVH
2025-10-01 12:00:01FORECAST202628244.11433.45838.78600.0228346581.2928346580.882.172834658FF12.114478.11492358.1396957432300.191336142090351614345280DRYVH
2025-10-01 08:00:01FORECAST202628244.29433.85439.07400.0192913491.4992913490.882.379291349FF12.294478.29492358.1396957432300.195777427179471614345280DRYVH
2025-10-01 04:00:03FORECAST202628244.04233.42238.73200.0283464721.3883464720.882.268346472FF12.042479.04292358.1396957432300.189577018575481614345280DRYVH
2025-10-01 00:00:01FORECAST202628244.09633.11638.60600.0405512031.0705512030.881.950551203FF12.096477.09692358.1396957432300.190895428042061614345280DRYVH
2025-09-30 20:00:01FORECAST202628243.82633.49438.6600.0618110571.2318110570.882.111811057FF11.826476.82692358.1396957432300.184359493529911614345280DRYVH
2025-09-30 16:00:02FORECAST202628244.20433.99839.10100.0543307381.2543307380.882.134330738FF12.204477.20492358.1396957432300.193549031676321614345280DRYVH
2025-09-30 12:00:01FORECAST202628244.00633.9838.99300.0771653961.2171653960.882.097165396FF12.006477.00692358.1396957432300.188701192141581614345280DRYVH
2025-09-30 08:00:02FORECAST202628243.57434.21438.89400.0814961071.0614961070.881.941496107FF11.574476.57492358.1396957432300.17838625575721614345280DRYVH
2025-09-30 04:00:03FORECAST202628242.76433.92638.34500.1476378750.9476378750.881.827637875FF10.764477.76492358.1396957432300.160022289624441614335260DRYH
2025-09-30 00:00:02FORECAST202628241.68434.64638.16500.3681104350.9481104351.031.978110435FF9.684471.68492358.1396957432300.137526506570541614335260DRYH
2025-09-29 20:00:02FORECAST202628241.39634.80838.10200.3480316840.9880316841.592.578031684FF9.396471.39692358.1396957432300.131910194906541614335260DRYH
2025-09-29 16:00:01FORECAST202628241.3635.13238.24600.3633860231.1133860231.592.703386023FF9.36472.3692358.1396957432300.131219409559661614345280DRYVH
2025-09-29 12:00:01FORECAST202628240.71234.82637.76900.6913389561.6113389561.593.201338956TF8.712470.71292358.1396957432300.1192099874257916143552100DRYVH
2025-09-29 08:00:01FORECAST202628240.47834.50237.4900.7133862121.6933862121.313.003386212TF8.478469.47892358.1396957432300.1150694831752216143552100DRYVH
2025-09-29 04:00:03FORECAST202628240.51434.75437.63400.7425200861.6325200861.292.922520086FF8.514469.51492358.1396957432300.1156997610007216143552100DRYVH
2025-09-29 00:00:02FORECAST202628240.35233.9837.16600.6212601781.6212601781.182.801260178FF8.352460.35292358.1396957432300.1128826887098316143552100DRYVH
2025-09-28 20:00:02FORECAST202628240.8234.57437.69700.6582680721.7282680721.222.948268072TF8.82461.8292358.1396957432300.1211559341123416143552100DRYVH
2025-09-28 16:00:02FORECAST202628241.32433.63837.48100.6492129491.7592129491.112.869212949TF9.324462.32492358.1396957432300.130531119319516143552100DRYVH
2025-09-28 12:00:02FORECAST202628242.13434.75438.44400.9267721542.0767721541.163.236772154TF10.134464.13492358.1396957432300.1466237373088716143552100DRYVH
2025-09-28 08:00:02FORECAST202628242.76435.43839.10100.9267721542.1867721541.123.306772154TF10.764467.76492358.1396957432300.1600222896244416143552100DRYVH
2025-09-28 04:00:03FORECAST202628242.31435.5138.91200.9263784532.2263784530.983.206378453TF10.314467.31492358.1396957432300.1503729137573516143552100DRYVH
2025-09-28 00:00:02FORECAST202628241.64835.40238.52500.5173231141.4873231141.052.537323114FF9.648459.64892358.1396957432300.136815699821741614345280DRYVH
2025-09-27 20:00:02FORECAST202628241.5435.5138.52500.5173231141.5873231141.062.647323114FF9.54456.5492358.1396957432300.1346983224531116143552100DRYVH
2025-09-27 16:00:02FORECAST202628241.82835.7838.80400.5125987021.5225987021.052.572598702FF9.828457.82892358.1396957432300.1403948425478216143552100DRYVH
2025-09-27 12:00:02FORECAST202628242.11635.25838.68700.4901577451.3201577450.952.270157745FF10.116459.11692358.1396957432300.146252290619391614345280DRYVH
2025-09-27 08:00:01FORECAST202628241.95434.28638.1200.4901577451.3401577450.92.240157745FF9.954461.95492358.1396957432300.142937639313721614345280DRYVH
2025-09-27 04:00:03FORECAST202628242.09834.48438.29100.535433361.475433360.892.36543336FF10.098460.09892358.1396957432300.145881474639861614345280DRYVH
2025-09-27 00:00:03FORECAST202628240.31633.81837.06700.6767720192.4867720191.113.596772019TF8.316454.31692358.1396957432300.1122633576500916143552100DRYVH
2025-09-26 20:00:01FORECAST202628239.7434.12436.93200.6838586372.5638586371.083.643858637TF7.74453.7492358.1396957432300.1026816267910316143552100DRYVH
2025-09-26 16:00:02FORECAST202628240.29833.04436.67100.5645672342.4345672341.13.534567234TF8.298453.29892358.1396957432300.111954601484716143552100DRYVH
2025-09-26 12:00:02FORECAST202628241.95434.01637.98501.0598430922.5398430921.173.709843092TF9.954450.95492358.1396957432300.1429376393137216143552100DRYVH
2025-09-26 08:00:02FORECAST202628243.1634.9739.06501.0598430922.5398430921.23.739843092TF11.16453.1692358.1396957432300.1688405766685716143552100DRYVH
2025-09-26 04:00:03FORECAST202628243.9734.55639.26301.2527565822.7727565821.234.002756582TF11.97452.9792358.1396957432300.1878278586775916143552100WETM
2025-09-26 00:00:03FORECAST202628244.1533.33238.74100.4417325221.5817325221.152.731732522FF12.15449.1592358.1396957432300.1922194348955516143552100DRYVH
2025-09-25 20:00:02FORECAST202628244.2434.10639.17300.444882131.574882131.182.75488213FF12.24449.2492358.1396957432300.1944385312285716143552100DRYVH
2025-09-25 16:00:02FORECAST202628244.09633.7138.90300.5492128951.9992128951.113.109212895TF12.096448.09692358.1396957432300.1908954280420616143552100DRYVH
2025-09-25 12:00:02FORECAST202628245.08638.87641.98100.1661418221.1561418221.242.396141822FF13.086454.08692358.1396957432300.216049374437551614345280DRYVH
2025-09-25 08:00:02FORECAST202628246.11237.8541.98100.1661418221.1561418221.242.396141822FF14.112458.11292358.1396957432300.244033849510781614345280DRYVH
2025-09-25 04:00:04FORECAST202628245.06837.45441.26100.2248032710.9848032711.222.204803271FF13.068460.06892358.1396957432300.215575576759461614335260DRYH
2025-09-25 00:00:02FORECAST202628249.17234.75441.96300.1236221140.6336221141.241.873622114FF17.172462.17292358.1396957432300.337831957120811624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-24 20:00:03FORECAST202628249.17234.98842.0800.1236221140.6336221141.241.873622114FF17.172464.17292358.1396957432300.337831957120811624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-24 16:00:02FORECAST202628250.19834.41242.30500.0933071370.6533071371.271.923307137FF18.198469.19892358.1396957432300.372140618315511624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-24 12:00:02FORECAST202628247.8438.17443.00700.3350395510.8350395511.252.085039551FF15.84462.8492358.1396957432300.295258506022421624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-24 10:22:48FORECAST202628247.8438.17443.00700.3350395510.8350395511.252.085039551FF15.84459.8492358.1396957432300.295258506022421624335267.5DRYH