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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, January 9, 2025

[ Wednesday, January 8, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, January 10, 2025 ]

DAY 101 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/10/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 53.05°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.82°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.43°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.993
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 21
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 44

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.25 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.74 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.99 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 120 in
SWE DAY: 9
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 355.80 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 42.82 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -183

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-10 07:00:03OBSERVATION2025101-18353.0499231.8242.43496120.3426070833300.2510.7410.99TT21.0499244.049929355.79549542674 42.817357508160.9932003064238116 5112127WETL
2025-01-10 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025101-18353.0499231.8242.43496120.3426070833300.2510.7410.99TT21.0499244.049929355.79549542674 42.817357508160.9932003064238116 5112127WETL
2025-01-09 11:00:01FORECAST2025101-18340.13629.33634.736121.529057600.2510.7410.99TT8.13631.1369356.5239995080943.3280256720010.81975803791243164112126WETL
2025-01-09 07:00:03FORECAST2025101-18341.12629.3935.258121.8496459666700.2510.7410.99TT9.12632.1269356.7204706424443.4662630568450.84923347086456165112127WETL
2025-01-09 03:00:03FORECAST2025101-18340.94629.46235.204121.8563371666700.2510.7410.99TT8.94631.9469356.7245696143.469149430030.84412706246117164112126WETL
2025-01-08 23:00:01FORECAST2025101-18340.69429.89435.294124.560053600.1410.7410.88TT8.69425.6949358.3751532163844.639228293540.83678922647049164112126WETL
2025-01-08 19:00:01FORECAST2025101-18340.83828.45434.646124.549524800.1410.7410.88TT8.83825.8389358.3687474813444.6346572019720.8410092593188164112126WETL
2025-01-08 15:00:01FORECAST2025101-18340.20828.90434.556124.582587200.1410.7410.88TT8.20825.2089358.3888621110644.649011665460.82201608144404164112126WETL
2025-01-08 11:00:01FORECAST2025101-18340.40629.80435.105124.8696554210700.1410.7410.88TT8.40625.4069358.563438788944.7736930481650.8281334451563164112126WETL
2025-01-08 07:00:03FORECAST2025101-18340.3729.85835.114124.7354688109500.1510.7410.89TT8.3725.379358.4818508506744.7154017260740.82703127494067164112126WETL
2025-01-08 03:00:03FORECAST2025101-18340.29829.85835.078124.5538314584500.0310.7410.77TT8.29825.2989358.3713676784144.6365269293520.82481349113671164111123WETL
2025-01-07 23:00:01FORECAST2025101-18340.67630.84835.762126.6491954045300.0710.7410.81TT8.67621.6769359.6428063730945.5484720601790.83625666383304164111123WETL
2025-01-07 19:00:01FORECAST2025101-18340.98231.2836.131126.6014979586200.0510.7410.79TT8.98220.9829359.6139394050945.5276634154840.84515733576105164111123WETL
2025-01-07 15:00:01FORECAST2025101-18341.46832.14436.806126.422134365340010.7410.74TT9.46822.4689359.5053554685445.4494343541040.85862637960547165111123.5WETL
2025-01-07 11:00:02FORECAST2025101-18340.65831.38836.023126.214098208390010.7410.74TT8.65821.6589359.3793516280745.3587407804540.83572297735298164111123WETL
2025-01-07 07:00:04FORECAST2025101-18340.6432.21636.428126.209842643570.0023622060.01236220610.7410.752362206TT8.6422.649359.3767734123345.3568860221230.83518816714204164111123WETL
2025-01-07 03:00:03FORECAST2025101-18341.39631.96436.68126.208424592830.0011811030.00118110310.7410.741181103TT9.39622.3969359.3759142861745.3562679786640.856682549357165111123.5WETL
2025-01-06 23:00:02FORECAST2025101-18341.95434.10638.03128.897397600050.0019685050.00196850510.7410.741968505TT9.95419.9549360.9994809647346.5318936313240.87128039993487165111123.5WETL
2025-01-06 19:00:02FORECAST2025101-18341.8134.21438.012128.946061152760.0137795350.01377953510.7410.753779535TT9.8118.819361.0287613441646.5532367381890.86761558397386165111123.5WETL
2025-01-06 15:00:02FORECAST2025101-18341.37832.64837.013128.97105218870.0129921330.01299213310.7410.752992133TT9.37818.3789361.0437967973546.5641983591570.85619379292867165111123.5WETL
2025-01-06 11:00:02FORECAST2025101-18339.79431.83835.816129.242627818010010.7410.74TT7.79415.7949361.2071243650346.6833579395230.80878906634104164111123WETL
2025-01-06 07:00:03FORECAST2025101-1834132.86436.932128.872681754820.0460630170.04606301710.7410.786063017TT9199360.9846082986346.5210545436590.84567078617255164111123WETL
2025-01-06 03:00:03FORECAST2025101-18341.1831.76636.473128.589758684540.0031496080.01314960810.7410.753149608TT9.1822.189360.8142938816446.3970229801720.85074348445594165111123.5WETL
2025-01-05 23:00:02FORECAST2025101-18341.86432.95437.409122.823619281480010.3810.38TT9.86419.8649357.3163853853143.8868916816020.86899820381464165111123.5WETL
2025-01-05 19:00:02FORECAST2025101-18341.79233.00837.4122.706502610140.0019685050.00196850510.3810.381968505TT9.79219.7929357.2448068049843.8362608186750.86715249044586165111123.5WETL
2025-01-05 15:00:02FORECAST2025101-18341.37834.05237.715122.549865554860.0019685050.01196850510.3810.391968505TT9.37821.3789357.1490411328443.7685669738780.85619379292867165111123.5WETL
2025-01-05 11:00:02FORECAST2025101-18340.6433.87237.256125.000458880450.0023622060.01236220610.3810.392362206TT8.6419.649358.6429429483244.8305324427770.83518816714204164111123WETL
2025-01-05 07:00:04FORECAST2025101-18340.60433.65637.13125.07237559390.0023622060.00236220610.510.502362206TT8.60420.6049358.686643673144.8617906179980.83411517602759164111123WETL
2025-01-05 03:00:03FORECAST2025101-18340.15432.0936.122124.564798806230.0023622060.00236220610.2810.282362206TT8.15421.1549358.3780401497644.6412884678250.82032422353244164111123WETL
2025-01-04 23:00:02FORECAST2025101-18342.13435.13238.633124.069557839210.0153543390.01535433910.4910.505354339TT10.13422.1349358.0765530063344.4263996040840.87576191401807165111123.5WETL
2025-01-04 19:00:01FORECAST2025101-18342.24235.11438.678123.60929526920.0153543390.01535433910.3810.395354339TT10.24222.2429357.796019396644.2269138077370.87839799242761165111123.5WETL
2025-01-04 15:00:02FORECAST2025101-18342.06235.65438.858123.568847497410.0153543390.01535433910.3210.335354339TT10.06222.0629357.7713504850444.2093934470270.8739825420791165111123.5WETL
2025-01-04 11:00:03FORECAST2025101-18341.05433.58437.319126.719021610130.007874020.0378740210.2310.26787402TT9.05421.0549359.685059579345.5789388376680.8472043933935164111123WETL
2025-01-04 07:00:03FORECAST2025101-18341.05434.10637.58125.673229065640.0082677210.03826772110.0810.118267721TT9.05420.0549359.0514449544345.1231544881080.8472043933935164111123WETL
2025-01-04 03:00:03FORECAST2025101-18341.50434.4337.967125.7654281289400.0410.1310.17TT9.50421.5049359.107373302545.1632925476480.85959158194532165111123.5WETL
2025-01-03 23:00:02FORECAST2025101-18341.57635.65438.615126.2557433297700.0910.1710.26TT9.57618.5769359.4045806759445.3768924893650.86150857494821165111123.5WETL
2025-01-03 19:00:02FORECAST2025101-18341.03635.1538.093126.5474102474500.0910.0910.18TT9.03614.0369359.5812007533245.5040697290010.84669431489767164111123WETL
2025-01-03 15:00:02FORECAST2025101-18340.89235.4238.156126.177454767380.0102362260.10023622610.0710.170236226TT8.89212.8929359.3571504429545.3427705953510.84257322048928164112126WETL
2025-01-03 11:00:02FORECAST2025101-18341.935.02438.462129.920678883340.0015748040.01157480410.1510.161574804TT9.915.99361.6144177693446.9811906505970.86991440505489165111123.5WETL
2025-01-03 07:00:04FORECAST2025101-18341.75634.46638.111129.35625109270.0015748040.01157480410.0810.091574804TT9.75616.7569361.2754248105446.7332345654140.86622296994671165111123.5WETL
2025-01-03 03:00:04FORECAST2025101-18340.8232.46836.644130.099160290680.0015748040.00157480410.2510.251574804TT8.8213.829361.721511853847.0596649512540.84048569017626164111123WETL
2025-01-02 23:00:03FORECAST2025101-18342.31434.17838.246131.990197015670.0570866450.16708664510.3510.517086645TT10.31412.3149362.8532121423947.8930669584410.88013345675134165112127WETL
2025-01-02 19:00:03FORECAST2025101-18341.79233.83637.814132.350991599570.0681102730.19811027310.410.598110273TT9.7929.7929363.0685146381348.0524779309390.86715249044586165112127WETL
2025-01-02 15:00:02FORECAST2025101-18341.52234.03437.778132.7539586060600.1710.4510.62TT9.5228.5229363.308750197648.2306747849510.86007250610974165112127WETL
2025-01-02 11:00:03FORECAST2025101-18340.89234.57437.733133.4230285261900.1110.5310.64TT8.8928.8929363.7070848191948.526900753010.84257322048928164112126WETL
2025-01-02 07:00:04FORECAST2025101-18341.61235.79838.705133.134301817570.0307086780.14070867810.4910.630708678TT9.61210.6129363.535272742448.3990147226190.86246037162308165112127WETL
2025-01-02 03:00:04FORECAST2025101-18340.6432.2736.455133.626806158610.0267716680.19677166810.4410.636771668TT8.644.649363.8282705794848.6172097877480.83518816714204164112126WETL
2025-01-01 23:00:03FORECAST2025101-18342.94433.27838.111134.114822456240.0763779940.16637799410.7210.886377994TT10.9444.9449364.1182371063748.83365272260.8945788608393165112127WETL
2025-01-01 19:00:02FORECAST2025101-18342.7133.04437.877135.833244222030.1185040010.20850400111.1211.328504001TT10.715.719365.1364220088949.5976647850910.88936738791085165112127WETL
2025-01-01 15:00:06FORECAST2025101-18341.4535.0638.255133.924924758850.2342520950.58425209510.7411.324252095TT9.457.459364.005447576248.7494021784530.858142100735391651131210.5WETL
2025-01-01 11:00:02FORECAST2025101-18341.77435.61838.696136.503111586220.0405512030.40055120310.9511.350551203TT9.7748.7749365.5321239174749.8962722994540.86668828593702165112127WETL
2025-01-01 07:00:04FORECAST2025101-18339.63232.82836.23134.6400412530.0578740470.46787404711.0611.527874047TT7.6320.6329364.4299070711749.0668577218880.80345370225343164112126WETL
2025-01-01 03:00:04FORECAST2025101-18339.93832.68436.311137.519566660310.0224409570.14244095711.111.242440957TT7.938-0.0619999999999989366.1312765667550.3502144942450.81345645622993164112126WETL
2024-12-31 23:00:03FORECAST2025101-18340.85634.14237.499141.515824631090.0232283590.11322835911.0811.193228359TT8.856-10.1449368.4719443265552.1446110547930.84153170408785164112126WETL
2024-12-31 19:00:02FORECAST2025101-18341.05435.22238.138140.69328950820.0232283590.10322835911.1911.293228359TT9.054-11.9469367.9921131697851.774020914930.8472043933935164112126WETL
2024-12-31 15:00:04FORECAST2025101-18339.32633.20636.266142.195635248390011.5711.57TT7.326-5.6749368.8677602722752.4513854945660.79313335398116164111123WETL
2024-12-31 11:00:03FORECAST2025101-18335.38428.70632.045143.1991536885700.0711.6611.73TT3.384-16.6169369.4508055966952.9050426910070.63492689407594163111122.5WETL
2024-12-31 07:00:03FORECAST2025101-18336.69828.72432.711143.5149373602200.0811.6211.7TT4.698-19.3029369.6339690645253.0479959165040.69230186031586163111122.5WETL
2024-12-31 03:00:04FORECAST2025101-18336.69829.17432.936144.266564268860.0094488240.06944882411.5411.609448824TT4.698-21.3029370.0693434022753.3886327138770.69230186031586163111122.5WETL
2024-12-30 23:00:03FORECAST2025101-18335.56430.84833.206146.8743974323300.271212.27TT3.564-30.4369371.5734828991754.5746314026490.64300392168031163112125WETL
2024-12-30 19:00:03FORECAST2025101-18331.65829.31830.488145.0029999766700.1611.8912.05TT-0.342-32.3429370.4951129495853.7229028543850.45956225632069162112124WETL
2024-12-30 15:00:03FORECAST2025101-18334.01630.61432.315147.666240108460.1598426060.74984260612.2212.969842606TT2.016-28.9849372.0282315196254.9360101627020.57182014210136163113127.5WETL
2024-12-30 11:00:03FORECAST2025101-18333.36832.91833.143141.534176789250011.6311.63TT1.368-29.6329368.482638747252.1528869362150.54116279773066163111122.5WETL
2024-12-30 07:00:04FORECAST2025101-18333.94433.29633.62141.5133920915700.0511.4811.53TT1.944-26.0569368.4705267664352.1435141284840.56843163646774163111122.5WETL
2024-12-30 03:00:05FORECAST2025101-18333.90833.7133.809144.9990168160600.112.2412.34TT1.908-17.0929370.4928122308653.7210935108940.56673547737805163112125WETL