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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 8, 2025

[ Tuesday, January 7, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, January 9, 2025 ]

DAY 100 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/09/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.76°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.53°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.64°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.816
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 25

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.25 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.25 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.04 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 122 in
SWE DAY: 8
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 356.09 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 43.56 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -184

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-09 07:00:02OBSERVATION2025100-18441.7599631.5300236.64499122.319309166670.250.2511.7912.04TT9.7599624.759968356.09088190091 43.5567906746680.8162078600524216 4112126WETL
2025-01-09 03:00:02OBSERVATION2025100-18441.7599631.5300236.64499122.319309166670.250.2511.7912.04TT9.7599624.759968356.09088190091 43.5567906746680.8162078600524216 4112126WETL
2025-01-08 11:00:01FORECAST2025100-18435.79829.332.549125.301041021070.1413386590.14133865911.7911.931338659TT3.79818.7988357.9153296357744.8471634007630.58040889305077163112125WETL
2025-01-08 07:00:03FORECAST2025100-18436.3230.18233.251125.152684810950.1468504730.14685047311.7911.936850473TT4.3219.328357.8248804259844.7827444774670.6041295121611163112125WETL
2025-01-08 03:00:03FORECAST2025100-18435.58228.9432.261125.002338658450.0279527710.02795277111.7911.817952771TT3.58218.5828357.733183217344.7174845178950.57050201804658163111122.5WETL
2025-01-07 23:00:01FORECAST2025100-18435.85229.64232.747127.107936204530.070866180.0708661811.7911.86086618TT3.85214.8528359.0142189712845.6335564415190.58287792639036163111122.5WETL
2025-01-07 19:00:01FORECAST2025100-18435.4229.6632.54127.079918758620.047244120.0472441211.7911.83724412TT3.4214.428358.9972182239645.621337326470.56304225780716163111122.5WETL
2025-01-07 15:00:01FORECAST2025100-18435.92431.02833.476127.009680765340011.7911.79TT3.92414.9248358.9545930897945.5907082775870.58616487786631163111122.5WETL
2025-01-07 11:00:02FORECAST2025100-18435.79831.17233.485126.716627008390011.7911.79TT3.79814.7988358.7766663005545.4629690029210.58040889305077163111122.5WETL
2025-01-07 07:00:04FORECAST2025100-18436.19430.72233.458126.755765843570.0066929170.00669291711.7911.796692917TT4.19416.1948358.8004370011845.4800241770910.59843548493466163111122.5WETL
2025-01-07 03:00:03FORECAST2025100-18436.12230.45233.287126.756512592830011.7911.79TT4.12215.1228358.8008905112145.4803495964010.59517226415546163111122.5WETL
2025-01-06 23:00:02FORECAST2025100-18436.55430.32633.44129.597316800050011.7911.79TT4.55411.5548360.519934788746.7224162015460.61464455872348163111122.5WETL
2025-01-06 19:00:01FORECAST2025100-18435.85229.1232.486129.667234752760011.7911.79TT3.85210.8528360.5620877511446.7530888753730.58287792639036163111122.5WETL
2025-01-06 15:00:02FORECAST2025100-18436.3230.23633.278129.59421938870.003937010.0039370111.7911.79393701TT4.3211.328360.5180672115346.7210574958010.6041295121611163111122.5WETL
2025-01-06 11:00:02FORECAST2025100-18435.1529.58832.369129.732659818010011.7911.79TT3.1510.158360.6015252091246.7817949998110.55056066303197163111122.5WETL
2025-01-06 07:00:03FORECAST2025100-18435.38429.60632.495129.460818554820011.7911.79TT3.38412.3848360.4376195355746.6625492630270.5613813880042163111122.5WETL
2025-01-06 03:00:03FORECAST2025100-18436.7730.32633.548129.248743484540.0129921330.01299213311.7911.802992133TT4.7714.778360.3096710560146.5695722493150.6242767288677163111122.5WETL
2025-01-05 23:00:01FORECAST2025100-18436.57230.16433.368123.519602481480011.4311.43TT4.57211.5728356.8269735973144.0751259334110.61545003782765163111122.5WETL
2025-01-05 19:00:02FORECAST2025100-18437.16631.11834.142123.438893810140011.4311.43TT5.16612.1668356.7775485549344.0402259299150.64173229434426163111122.5WETL
2025-01-05 15:00:01FORECAST2025100-18438.13831.83834.988123.340804754860.0074803190.00748031911.4311.437480319TT6.13814.1388356.71746632843.9978193670120.68327933479178163111122.5WETL
2025-01-05 11:00:01FORECAST2025100-18438.01232.0935.051125.741115680450.0098425250.00984252511.4311.439842525TT6.01213.0128358.183432143845.0383843760160.6780085500093163111122.5WETL
2025-01-05 07:00:04FORECAST2025100-18438.96631.71235.339125.80811239390011.5511.55TT6.96613.9668358.224221637545.0675131379880.71695850128224164111123WETL
2025-01-05 03:00:03FORECAST2025100-18437.59831.6434.619125.152170080070011.3311.33TT5.59814.5988357.8245665476244.7825210113950.66044154062912163111122.5WETL
2025-01-04 23:00:02FORECAST2025100-18439.232.19835.699124.920619439210011.5411.54TT7.214.28357.6833273815944.6820228195860.72615564230804164111123WETL
2025-01-04 19:00:01FORECAST2025100-18439.25432.55835.906124.46448966920011.4311.43TT7.25414.2548357.4048583617644.4842133012870.72825690651001164111123WETL
2025-01-04 15:00:02FORECAST2025100-18439.59632.12635.861124.4104626974100.0111.3611.37TT7.59613.5968357.3718533076444.4607976250330.74137594517112164111123WETL
2025-01-04 11:00:02FORECAST2025100-18438.64232.25235.447127.438719210130.0334645850.06346458511.2511.313464585TT6.64213.6428359.2148438439645.777879620740.70398470272769164111123WETL
2025-01-04 07:00:03FORECAST2025100-18438.67832.01835.348126.423725865640.0291338740.05913387411.111.159133874TT6.67812.6788358.5986997838345.3353837172470.70543962311915164111123WETL
2025-01-04 03:00:03FORECAST2025100-18438.87632.66635.771126.583328928940.0405512030.07055120311.1511.220551203TT6.87613.8768358.6956909030345.4048946269730.71338212531938164111123WETL
2025-01-03 23:00:02FORECAST2025100-18437.9432.9935.465127.143311329770.0807087050.10070870511.2111.310708705TT5.9410.948359.0356825676245.6489855671910.67498043965375163112125WETL
2025-01-03 19:00:02FORECAST2025100-18437.5832.79235.186127.263949103050.0811024060.09110240611.1411.231102406TT5.586.588359.108864145745.7016122090940.65966944419977163112125WETL
2025-01-03 15:00:02FORECAST2025100-18437.432.16234.781126.899721375170.0811024060.09110240611.1211.211102406TT5.46.48358.8878470695345.5427677980580.6519121295007163112125WETL
2025-01-03 11:00:02FORECAST2025100-18439.09232.57635.834130.678837527850.0137795350.01377953511.211.213779535TT7.0928.0928361.1711378420647.1974244418110.72192918922231164111123WETL
2025-01-03 07:00:04FORECAST2025100-18438.8432.66635.753130.113973161760.0137795350.02377953511.1211.143779535TT6.848.848360.8312460349546.9491870625160.71194560480658164111123WETL
2025-01-03 03:00:04FORECAST2025100-18439.07431.6435.357130.831354690680.0031496080.00314960811.311.303149608TT7.0747.0748361.2628273255747.2645050983890.72122170247645164111123WETL
2025-01-02 23:00:03FORECAST2025100-18437.56233.2635.411132.54706593340.114173290.1141732911.411.51417329TT5.5623.5628362.2918262428148.0207185801360.65889667825841163112125WETL
2025-01-02 19:00:03FORECAST2025100-18437.14833.1735.159132.826076961690.1271654230.12716542311.4511.577165423TT5.1482.1488362.4587397792548.1439724653570.64094493249532163112125WETL
2025-01-02 15:00:02FORECAST2025100-18437.23831.83834.538133.214069942360.1736221410.17362214111.511.673622141TT5.2381.2388362.6906533578848.3154980638580.64487569226994163112125WETL
2025-01-02 11:00:03FORECAST2025100-18437.430.5633.98134.162307726190.1122047850.11220478511.5811.692204785TT5.42.48363.2564790315848.7353275233670.6519121295007163112125WETL
2025-01-02 07:00:04FORECAST2025100-18437.77830.9234.349133.969029017570.1137795890.11377958911.5411.653779589TT5.7782.7788363.1412576955448.649681689690.66812506118396163112125WETL
2025-01-02 03:00:04FORECAST2025100-18437.25631.67634.466134.278410958610.1677166260.16771662611.4911.657716626TT5.256-1.7448363.325665722448.7867930536840.64566001431087163112125WETL
2025-01-01 23:00:03FORECAST2025100-18437.56233.81835.69134.990385656240.0862205190.08622051911.7711.856220519TT5.562-4.4388363.749490297849.1026839775610.65889667825841163111122.5WETL
2025-01-01 19:00:02FORECAST2025100-18437.54433.20635.375136.661930011140.0917323330.09173233312.1712.261732333TT5.544-3.4568364.7415209892349.8462802135880.65812324565348163112125WETL
2025-01-01 15:00:06FORECAST2025100-18437.59832.79235.195134.725211958850.3476379830.34763798311.7912.137637983TT5.598-0.4028363.5917271605248.9849725081840.66044154062912163112125WETL
2025-01-01 11:00:02FORECAST2025100-18438.7533.20635.978137.365981186220.3283466340.3583466341212.358346634TT6.750.758365.1581033660350.1603011569730.70833953074378164112126WETL
2025-01-01 07:00:04FORECAST2025100-18436.96831.58634.277135.1994452530.381889970.4118899712.1112.52188997TT4.968-5.0328363.8737938758749.195535074120.63303887938237163112125WETL
2025-01-01 03:00:04FORECAST2025100-18437.02231.31634.169138.109179460310.1070866720.11708667212.1512.267086672TT5.022-5.9788365.5970413136750.4923073889470.63541680147444163112125WETL
2024-12-31 23:00:03FORECAST2025100-18438.01232.32435.168142.187896631090.0901575290.15015752912.0712.220157529TT6.012-16.9888367.9912629900252.3239036631690.6780085500093163112125WETL
2024-12-31 19:00:02FORECAST2025100-18438.24631.92835.087141.43168310820.082677210.2626772112.0612.32267721TT6.246-18.7548367.5492339614251.9831067842920.687767799241163112125WETL
2024-12-31 15:00:04FORECAST2025100-18439.48833.4436.464142.7434280483900.1712.4512.62TT7.488-10.5128368.3154468937852.5746094927930.73726874315776164112126WETL
2024-12-31 11:00:02FORECAST2025100-18433.99828.81431.406143.370960088570.0736220870.09362208712.6912.783622087TT1.998-18.0028368.6810974294752.8581629049710.49689344122739162112124WETL
2024-12-31 07:00:03FORECAST2025100-18433.49428.74231.118143.707801360220.0763779940.08637799412.6612.746377994TT1.494-21.5068368.8771279399653.0105210283230.47337423314471162111122WETL
2024-12-31 03:00:03FORECAST2025100-18432.64829.22830.938144.06104083210.0578740470.06787404712.5812.647874047TT0.648-24.3528369.0825215763753.1704122112290.43414455431504162111122WETL
2024-12-30 23:00:03FORECAST2025100-18433.20630.1131.658146.359591459750.1751969450.63519694512.6813.315196945TT1.206-31.7948370.414538761454.2137205638710.45997099669118162113126WETL
2024-12-30 19:00:03FORECAST2025100-18433.3529.4831.415144.425972840660.1153543930.42535439312.6713.095354393TT1.35-29.658369.2945204752753.3357203843650.46666788998305162112124WETL
2024-12-30 15:00:02FORECAST2025100-18435.76227.69831.73146.436853458640.5535436060.98354360612.8813.863543606TT3.762-29.2388370.4591773740854.2488762695350.57876110433393163113127.5WETL
2024-12-30 11:00:03FORECAST2025100-18436.28428.05832.171141.5803263892500.7211.9612.68TT4.284-28.7168367.6361873834752.0500514022490.60250485497373163113127.5WETL
2024-12-30 07:00:04FORECAST2025100-18436.17628.50832.342141.5805992915700.7411.8412.58TT4.176-25.8248367.6363469958152.050174329030.59762031329405163113127.5WETL
2024-12-30 03:00:04FORECAST2025100-18436.87830.3833.629145.0187952160601.4311.9613.39TT4.878-17.1228369.638488448453.6045282602740.629064354905771631141210WETL
2024-12-29 23:00:02FORECAST2025100-18434.48427.2330.857146.6331092135900.9312.9413.87TT2.484-14.5168370.5725260088754.3382016778160.5195838343428163113127.5WETL
2024-12-29 19:00:03FORECAST2025100-18433.94425.48429.714149.4731125201100.9613.4914.45TT1.944-17.0568372.2064769579655.6348606110520.49437156361485162113126WETL
2024-12-29 15:00:03FORECAST2025100-18434.4325.48429.957149.4215296732500.9613.4614.42TT2.43-14.578372.1769045580455.611242388120.51706446647155163113127.5WETL
2024-12-29 11:00:03FORECAST2025100-18433.83632.70233.269150.4873763079800.8313.6114.44TT1.836-6.1648372.7871670707956.0997626937690.48932858390795162113126WETL
2024-12-29 07:00:05FORECAST2025100-18433.60232.8133.206153.0248020308300.7914.0514.84TT1.602-5.3988374.233367654757.2669869986910.4784090523916162113126WETL
2024-12-29 03:00:05FORECAST2025100-18433.94433.0833.512154.2362615646300.7614.1814.94TT1.944-5.0568374.9205560446357.8263449480550.49437156361485162113126WETL