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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 7, 2025

[ Monday, January 6, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, January 8, 2025 ]

DAY 99 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/08/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.85°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.80°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.33°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.768
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 32

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.08 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.40 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 125 in
SWE DAY: 7
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 356.73 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 44.54 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -185

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-08 07:00:03OBSERVATION202599-18540.8500631.8000236.32504124.8570337501.0811.3212.4TT8.8500631.850067356.72981977837 44.54022714770.7675869903343116 41141212WETL
2025-01-08 03:00:03OBSERVATION202599-18540.8500631.8000236.32504124.8570337501.0811.3212.4TT8.8500631.850067356.72981977837 44.54022714770.7675869903343116 41141212WETL
2025-01-07 11:00:01FORECAST202599-18537.18428.61632.9126.7876641502801.0811.3212.4TT5.18428.1847357.9095753939145.3785190412110.638249111331711631141210WETL
2025-01-07 07:00:03FORECAST202599-18537.83228.6733.251126.9267428166701.0811.3212.4TT5.83228.8327357.994339393645.4390554460340.662917913243171631141210WETL
2025-01-07 03:00:03FORECAST202599-18536.96829.17433.071126.9061772166701.0811.3212.4TT4.96827.9687357.9818072044945.4301026654360.629890659902541631141210WETL
2025-01-06 23:00:01FORECAST202599-18537.429.26433.332129.760986401.0811.3212.4TT5.424.47359.7152134348746.6770009183950.646542150084921631141210WETL
2025-01-06 19:00:01FORECAST202599-18537.29227.7732.531129.8175599165201.0811.3212.4TT5.29224.2927359.7494373513146.7017941382890.642404031000591631141210WETL
2025-01-06 15:00:01FORECAST202599-18537.05829.08433.071129.7560794832901.0811.3212.4TT5.05824.0587359.7122447839846.6748506253040.633381066259691631141210WETL
2025-01-06 11:00:02FORECAST202599-18537.14828.97633.062129.7727505815201.0811.3212.4TT5.14824.1487359.7223305331646.6821562788820.636860481555431631141210WETL
2025-01-06 07:00:03FORECAST202599-18537.61629.37233.494129.5073687789601.0811.3212.4TT5.61625.6167359.561728041746.5658933122970.654766232657011631141210WETL
2025-01-06 03:00:02FORECAST202599-18538.67829.55234.115129.395005101410.0019685051.08196850511.3212.401968505TT6.67826.6787359.4936956993846.5166885889470.694086195913651631141210WETL
2025-01-05 23:00:01FORECAST202599-18538.28229.31833.8123.625981205390.0023622060.72236220611.3212.042362206TT6.28224.2827355.9745309107344.0077006679670.67965354732079163113127.5WETL
2025-01-05 19:00:02FORECAST202599-18537.65228.97633.314123.6570843264200.7211.3212.04TT5.65223.6527355.9936427341444.0211358992440.6561299655927163113127.5WETL
2025-01-05 15:00:01FORECAST202599-18537.95829.96633.962123.6145677242400.7211.3212.04TT5.95824.9587355.9675173311544.0027707787620.66763829052394163113127.5WETL
2025-01-05 11:00:01FORECAST202599-18537.99428.8533.422125.9807857670400.7211.3212.04TT5.99423.9947357.4172175917845.0277019188830.66898214438178163113127.5WETL
2025-01-05 07:00:04FORECAST202599-18537.5828.79633.188126.131001037100.8411.3212.16TT5.5823.587357.5089555222145.0929624397460.65340048832559163113127.5WETL
2025-01-05 03:00:03FORECAST202599-18538.19228.25633.224125.4367740047400.6211.3211.94TT6.19226.1927357.0846912297644.791551714340.67633411994123163113127.5WETL
2025-01-04 23:00:02FORECAST202599-18537.00427.39232.198125.4012027614200.7711.3812.15TT5.00424.0047357.0629323529644.7761211785810.63128812447231163113127.5WETL
2025-01-04 19:00:01FORECAST202599-18536.91427.62632.27124.9692335553800.6611.3812.04TT4.91423.9147356.7985404737444.5888401366820.62779125051292163113127.5WETL
2025-01-04 15:00:02FORECAST202599-18536.60827.42832.018124.8975431087900.611.3811.98TT4.60822.6087356.7546334111444.557777205730.6158244638283163113127.5WETL
2025-01-04 11:00:02FORECAST202599-18537.18427.57232.378127.788077017530.0007874020.51078740211.3811.890787402TT5.18424.1847358.518628601645.8144061239590.63824911133171163113127.5WETL
2025-01-04 07:00:03FORECAST202599-18537.11227.19432.153126.764344805390.0007874020.41078740211.3311.740787402TT5.11223.1127357.8953600674345.3683708278360.63547005121255163112125WETL
2025-01-04 03:00:03FORECAST202599-18538.01227.60832.81126.926861028050.0007874020.49078740211.311.790787402TT6.01224.0127357.9944114269245.4391069080020.66965325772581163113127.5WETL
2025-01-03 23:00:02FORECAST202599-18539.05628.50833.782127.279420465160.0074803190.47748031911.3611.837480319TT7.05622.0567358.2091509501845.5926531382550.70758787638365164112126WETL
2025-01-03 19:00:02FORECAST202599-18538.2127.37432.792127.280363071980.0074803190.36748031911.3911.757480319TT6.2118.217358.2097248224445.5930638313140.67699913885412163112125WETL
2025-01-03 15:00:02FORECAST202599-18537.8527.53632.693126.898289607870.0074803190.35748031911.3811.737480319TT5.8517.857357.9770005089945.4266690835460.66359384624458163112125WETL
2025-01-03 11:00:02FORECAST202599-18537.16627.01432.09130.815293598490.0019685050.30196850511.5111.811968505TT5.16618.1667360.3522047768247.1395794667430.63755502255746163112125WETL
2025-01-03 07:00:04FORECAST202599-18536.96826.85231.91130.230950073110.0019685050.30196850511.4411.741968505TT4.96818.9687359.999366823946.8830595671950.62989065990254163112125WETL
2025-01-03 03:00:04FORECAST202599-18538.24628.79633.521130.882933571790.0019685050.33196850511.5811.911968505TT6.24617.2467360.3930132965347.1692948190260.67832748009973163112125WETL
2025-01-02 23:00:03FORECAST202599-18537.4927.82432.657132.3187658285800.4311.5812.01TT5.4915.497361.2576269986147.8011633506170.64997743126324163112125WETL
2025-01-02 19:00:02FORECAST202599-18536.8627.19432.027132.5401687202400.3811.6812.06TT4.8613.867361.3906685826547.8987801878660.62568803740161163112125WETL
2025-01-02 15:00:02FORECAST202599-18535.99627.26631.631132.925916542270.0007874020.40078740211.7112.110787402TT3.99612.9967361.6222868115148.0689739165320.59156767624278163112125WETL
2025-01-02 11:00:03FORECAST202599-18538.15627.62632.891134.2234743246500.4611.7312.19TT6.15614.1567362.3997282865248.6425506249270.675002394521163112125WETL
2025-01-02 07:00:04FORECAST202599-18538.04827.35632.702134.3506002961900.4811.6712.15TT6.04814.0487362.4757590408348.6988358199530.67099384796514163112125WETL
2025-01-02 03:00:04FORECAST202599-18537.32827.66232.495134.6014741715600.511.612.1TT5.32810.3287362.6257282049848.8099575889250.64378529261229163113127.5WETL
2025-01-01 23:00:02FORECAST202599-18537.0429.26433.152135.320358840250.0003937010.51039370111.8712.380393701TT5.047.047363.0549392930849.1287246638660.63268385583165163113127.5WETL
2025-01-01 19:00:02FORECAST202599-18536.60829.40833.008136.88733394390.0003937010.51039370112.2712.780393701TT4.6087.6087363.9877923923749.8253184887160.6158244638283163113127.5WETL
2025-01-01 15:00:05FORECAST202599-18537.16629.13833.152135.025800686280.0011811030.42118110311.9812.401181103TT5.16611.1667362.8791677071148.9980501720220.63755502255746163112125WETL
2025-01-01 11:00:02FORECAST202599-18536.80626.4231.613137.746205071980.0283464720.74834647211.8912.638346472TT4.80610.8067364.497523314650.2081505947210.62358107861646163113127.5WETL
2025-01-01 07:00:04FORECAST202599-18536.3226.6931.505135.25439745740.0263779670.73637796712.0112.746377967TT4.327.327363.0155896062149.0994548398310.60445963486582163113127.5WETL
2025-01-01 03:00:04FORECAST202599-18536.17626.43831.307138.149137844210.0051181130.71511811312.0512.765118113TT4.1766.1767364.736276705550.3880021673710.59874307081622163113127.5WETL
2024-12-31 23:00:03FORECAST202599-18532.926.22229.561142.5734278310900.612.1412.74TT0.9-6.17367.3418322366852.3731842077350.46538061714979162113126WETL
2024-12-31 19:00:02FORECAST202599-18533.45825.75429.606141.839649508200.7512.112.85TT1.458-7.5427366.9117179307252.0426294717450.48823725778557162113126WETL
2024-12-31 15:00:04FORECAST202599-18537.54425.731.622143.2340504483900.7912.4413.23TT5.544-1.4567367.7283801640352.671225355720.65203274835925163113127.5WETL
2024-12-31 11:00:02FORECAST202599-18535.61824.87230.245143.4312792885700.9912.3313.32TT3.618-3.3827367.8436583499952.7602864953280.57640181181202163113127.5WETL
2024-12-31 07:00:03FORECAST202599-18534.75424.9829.867143.6540986051600.9312.3513.28TT2.754-6.2467367.9738244439852.8609480607930.5413448766329163113127.5WETL
2024-12-31 03:00:03FORECAST202599-18532.84624.11628.481143.3758963354400.9712.2313.2TT0.846-8.1547367.8112934266652.7352738773440.46317352601525162113126WETL
2024-12-30 23:00:03FORECAST202599-18533.3524.63828.994143.384502284650.0901575291.24015752912.5113.750157529TT1.35-15.657367.8163229062752.7391603920870.48380803332442162114128WETL
2024-12-30 19:00:02FORECAST202599-18532.95424.20628.58142.106135210540.0401575021.17015750212.4213.590157502TT0.954-14.0467367.0680149175352.1626169593350.46758877371034162114128WETL
2024-12-30 15:00:02FORECAST202599-18532.50422.40627.455143.903562015570.0350393891.22503938912.6913.915039389TT0.504-16.4967368.1194680429752.9737026986620.44922437116535162114128WETL
2024-12-30 11:00:03FORECAST202599-18533.0824.54828.814141.8045498811901.0712.2213.29TT1.08-15.927366.8911237022552.0268306520020.47274490220141162114128WETL
2024-12-30 07:00:04FORECAST202599-18533.13424.5328.832141.806250516150.0480315221.04803152212.1413.188031522TT1.134-12.8667366.89212156952.0275961036140.47495612114292162114128WETL
2024-12-30 03:00:04FORECAST202599-18534.41228.50831.46145.259323194660.0996063532.09960635311.913.999606353TT2.412-4.5887368.9093870799153.5875278873830.527363111175231631151212.5WETL
2024-12-29 23:00:02FORECAST202599-18537.72428.79633.26146.6670572135901.5412.9414.48TT5.724-0.2767369.7267139785254.2267291124820.658851334627511631151212.5WETL
2024-12-29 19:00:03FORECAST202599-18538.06630.9234.493149.502140520110.0011811031.59118110313.4715.061181103TT6.066-1.9347371.3639133723255.5196999610870.671663321164631631151212.5WETL
2024-12-29 15:00:03FORECAST202599-18539.9230.68635.303149.4683680732501.5913.4415.03TT7.92-0.0799999999999987371.3444798168255.5042533912320.737362641247731641151215WETL
2024-12-29 11:00:03FORECAST202599-18539.88431.17235.528150.5499587079801.3913.6615.05TT7.8848.8847371.9660280900455.9994701697280.736153652764061641141212WETL
2024-12-29 07:00:04FORECAST202599-18540.17232.1836.176153.0756748308301.451415.45TT8.17210.1727373.4108272031657.1601143632630.745745577153711641141212WETL
2024-12-29 03:00:04FORECAST202599-18540.06432.03636.05154.2527927646301.3914.1615.55TT8.06410.0647374.081020392857.7030421158320.742170125596111641141212WETL
2024-12-28 23:00:02FORECAST202599-18530.12821.6525.889147.0461333475101.3313.3514.68TT-1.8725.1287369.9463056639754.3991737940840.35493635382589162114128WETL
2024-12-28 19:00:02FORECAST202599-18532.86426.27629.57144.53624784501.512.8314.33TT0.8648.8647368.4884338670453.2599356054220.46390910050797162114128WETL
2024-12-28 15:00:03FORECAST202599-18532.64826.27629.462144.335529896601.412.8214.22TT0.6488.6487368.3714446196553.1690876579540.45509106421097162114128WETL
2024-12-28 11:00:03FORECAST202599-18530.50627.53629.021148.1381369165601.3612.7214.08TT-1.494-2.4947370.5777022796154.8966903985210.36951281156655162114128WETL
2024-12-28 07:00:05FORECAST202599-18526.45621.57824.017148.343081469601.3212.5913.91TT-5.544-7.5447370.6960061902754.9901878467380.22669265523234161114126WETL
2024-12-28 03:00:04FORECAST202599-18526.09624.81825.457146.2962055215801.2913.815.09TT-5.9043.0967369.5116818572954.058156951620.21569218453548161114126WETL