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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 6, 2025

[ Sunday, January 5, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, January 7, 2025 ]

DAY 98 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/07/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.55°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.72°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.64°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.707
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 38

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.95 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.45 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.40 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 127 in
SWE DAY: 6
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 357.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 45.43 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -186

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-07 07:00:03OBSERVATION202598-18636.5500428.7200432.63504127.1667404166701.9510.4512.4TT4.5500437.550046357.22772064924 45.427484821440.7066212789233516 41151215WETL
2025-01-07 03:00:03OBSERVATION202598-18636.5500428.7200432.63504127.1667404166701.9510.4512.4TT4.5500437.550046357.22772064924 45.427484821440.7066212789233516 41151215WETL
2025-01-06 11:00:01FORECAST202598-18633.27825.2529.264129.984452801.9510.4512.4TT1.27834.2786358.9440603754346.657147273710.564187785507081631151212.5WETL
2025-01-06 07:00:03FORECAST202598-18633.9825.41229.696129.7623790833301.9510.4512.4TT1.9834.986358.8092351363246.5599399883610.596205771531751631151212.5WETL
2025-01-06 03:00:02FORECAST202598-18634.48425.59230.038129.7492918833301.9510.4512.4TT2.48435.4846358.8012872714346.5542129502970.618814677897051631151212.5WETL
2025-01-05 23:00:01FORECAST202598-18634.4325.64630.038123.962509601.5910.4512.04TT2.4333.436355.2609573951844.0390398416050.616410105381661631151212.5WETL
2025-01-05 19:00:02FORECAST202598-18634.41225.77230.092123.95719601.5910.4512.04TT2.41233.4126355.2576825845644.036746190640.615607579100011631151212.5WETL
2025-01-05 15:00:01FORECAST202598-18634.6126.7830.695123.956605601.5910.4512.04TT2.6133.616355.2573187139944.0364913423430.624407398402541631151212.5WETL
2025-01-05 11:00:01FORECAST202598-18634.37626.27630.326126.3007004132301.5910.4512.04TT2.37633.3766356.6977211049845.051172011360.614001042750841631151212.5WETL
2025-01-05 07:00:03FORECAST202598-18634.32225.98830.155126.4275604085701.7110.4512.16TT2.32233.3226356.7754298412245.1062472085430.611587577425561631151212.5WETL
2025-01-05 03:00:03FORECAST202598-18634.98826.40230.695125.721104077610.0015748041.49157480410.4511.941574804TT2.98834.9886356.3423677072644.7997558977870.641025207727671631141210WETL
2025-01-04 23:00:02FORECAST202598-18634.95227.01430.983125.600864123710.0019685051.70196850510.4512.151968505TT2.95233.9526356.268582448944.747641815710.639453433190541631151212.5WETL
2025-01-04 19:00:01FORECAST202598-18635.34826.7831.064125.206180755380.0015748041.59157480410.4512.041574804TT3.34834.3486356.026226518344.5766840711070.656607977863151631151212.5WETL
2025-01-04 15:00:02FORECAST202598-18633.92626.79830.362125.094539908790.0074803191.52748031910.4511.977480319TT1.92632.9266355.9576291909644.5283558506670.593762738280581631151212.5WETL
2025-01-04 11:00:02FORECAST202598-18634.59226.85230.722128.037799774970.0311023791.44110237910.4511.891102379TT2.59233.5926357.7596172208245.8067542372910.623610005519021631141210WETL
2025-01-04 07:00:03FORECAST202598-18634.66427.15830.911127.005309962830.0318897811.29188978110.4511.741889781TT2.66432.6646357.1290167530745.3572814694460.626796379270241631141210WETL
2025-01-04 03:00:03FORECAST202598-18635.18627.28431.235127.215999306090.0299212761.33992127610.4511.789921276TT3.18633.1866357.2578310984945.4489119931210.649626734423291631141210WETL
2025-01-03 23:00:01FORECAST202598-18634.73625.91630.326127.632138264820.0133858341.22338583410.6111.833385834TT2.73629.7366357.5120537962645.6300278814640.629974108138091631141210WETL
2025-01-03 19:00:02FORECAST202598-18633.7125.10629.408127.5655869961501.1410.6111.75TT1.7126.716357.4714151296845.6010509053620.583954973992061631141210WETL
2025-01-03 15:00:02FORECAST202598-18634.41224.99829.705127.1927271365901.1210.6111.73TT2.41227.4126357.2436060040945.4387884997690.615607579100011631141210WETL
2025-01-03 11:00:02FORECAST202598-18633.47625.32229.399130.7490431955501.210.6111.81TT1.47628.4766359.4076767220746.9922098485470.573270773296471631141210WETL
2025-01-03 07:00:04FORECAST202598-18633.36825.80829.588130.174820439040.0059055151.10590551510.6311.735905515TT1.36829.3686359.0595757196646.7405157962240.56832091299821631141210WETL
2025-01-03 03:00:04FORECAST202598-18633.31425.01629.165130.8942867022101.1710.7411.91TT1.31426.3146359.4956447263747.0559259890090.565841903990791631141210WETL
2025-01-02 23:00:02FORECAST202598-18632.50424.9828.742132.5517539554301.2710.7412.01TT0.50424.5046360.4972093962647.7845374015120.528399979669341631141210WETL
2025-01-02 19:00:02FORECAST202598-18632.25224.27828.265132.7203160470901.2810.7812.06TT0.25224.2526360.5988311019747.8587908300650.516684133103241631141210WETL
2025-01-02 15:00:02FORECAST202598-18633.02625.01629.021133.0143797709101.410.7112.11TT1.02624.0266360.7760103543147.9883972535020.552579096670731631141210WETL
2025-01-02 11:00:03FORECAST202598-18633.0825.68229.381134.4395607246501.5410.6512.19TT1.0823.086361.6328378462348.6177598636560.555070816079871631151212.5WETL
2025-01-02 07:00:04FORECAST202598-18633.54825.59229.57134.5622586961901.510.6512.15TT1.54822.5486361.7064597073148.6720382032180.576564332026881631141210WETL
2025-01-02 03:00:04FORECAST202598-18633.85423.91828.886134.8823077715601.4110.6912.1TT1.85419.8546361.8983892360248.8136899189640.590499690660881631141210WETL
2025-01-01 23:00:02FORECAST202598-18634.4325.28629.858135.6016545475201.5710.8112.38TT2.4317.436362.3292037112949.1324395141380.616410105381661631151212.5WETL
2025-01-01 19:00:02FORECAST202598-18634.95225.1630.056137.1700072511701.7711.0112.78TT2.95217.9526363.2657605932949.8291670146830.639453433190541631151212.5WETL
2025-01-01 15:00:04FORECAST202598-18635.70826.29431.001135.3194703929901.6110.7912.4TT3.70820.7086362.1602983484649.0073397698810.671929120563481631151212.5WETL
2025-01-01 11:00:01FORECAST202598-18634.5225.08829.804137.8804814793801.5611.0512.61TT2.5220.526363.6888007819650.1455869604760.620415188797411631151212.5WETL
2025-01-01 07:00:03FORECAST202598-18633.90825.21429.561135.3830628859601.611.1212.72TT1.90817.9086362.1983731126849.0355251243060.592947577078981631151212.5WETL
2025-01-01 03:00:03FORECAST202598-18632.86425.35829.111138.2474764577601.6511.1112.76TT0.86416.8646363.9070230646750.3092276039470.545091867879631631151212.5WETL
2024-12-31 23:00:03FORECAST202598-18630.61424.09827.356142.598618231090.0582677481.79826774810.9412.738267748TT-1.3867.6146366.4788520942552.2593779195550.440632262109041621151210WETL
2024-12-31 19:00:02FORECAST202598-18630.79423.86427.329141.88019030820.1783465531.94834655310.912.848346553TT-1.2065.7946366.0561676396951.9361187282090.44893383991571621151210WETL
2024-12-31 15:00:03FORECAST202598-18631.31624.67427.995143.479066448390.1688977292.27889772910.9513.228897729TT-0.6848.3166366.9958098488252.656216187580.473122184873841621151210WETL
2024-12-31 11:00:02FORECAST202598-18631.20823.84627.527143.511573688570.0192913492.20929134911.1113.319291349TT-0.7928.2086367.0148744489852.6708821992870.46810657796131621151210WETL
2024-12-31 07:00:03FORECAST202598-18630.77624.06227.419143.712056205160.0070866182.09708661811.1813.277086618TT-1.2245.7766367.1324171333552.7613545658040.448102613874791621151210WETL
2024-12-31 03:00:03FORECAST202598-18630.75825.26828.013143.386917135440.0106299271.72062992711.4813.200629927TT-1.2425.7586366.9417582607352.6146474852630.447271615628011621151210WETL
2024-12-30 23:00:02FORECAST202598-18630.48825.50227.995142.836837268830.3724411462.21244114611.4513.662441146TT-1.512-1.5126366.6188372039852.3666751893940.434836420591041621151210WETL
2024-12-30 19:00:02FORECAST202598-18630.61426.2428.427141.803594739690.2728347932.10283479311.4513.552834793TT-1.386-0.3866366.011057397951.9016836534980.440632262109041621151210WETL
2024-12-30 15:00:02FORECAST202598-18631.1925.0728.13143.663212741270.3862206812.12622068111.7513.876220681TT-0.81-1.816367.1037857775752.7393092742890.467271113806831621151210WETL
2024-12-30 11:00:03FORECAST202598-18630.70425.86228.283141.81322717880.7232287371.55322873711.7413.293228737TT-1.296-2.2966366.0167308150451.9060137983150.444780023680621621151210WETL
2024-12-30 07:00:04FORECAST202598-18630.8325.46628.148141.538352286670.6874019461.60740194611.5313.137401946TT-1.170.836365.8547775081151.7824823847040.450596960947391621151210WETL
2024-12-30 03:00:04FORECAST202598-18633.11629.42631.271144.784651770671.3314967822.57149678211.3313.901496782TT1.1168.1166367.7602630221853.2460416167570.556730760614161631151212.5WETL
2024-12-29 23:00:02FORECAST202598-18634.91628.3131.613146.958419613590.9303154632.38031546312.114.480315463TT2.9168.9166369.0274482170254.231690584010.637879300024831631151212.5WETL
2024-12-29 19:00:02FORECAST202598-18634.48428.61631.55149.878741338840.9641737492.37417374912.6915.064173749TT2.4847.4846370.7188563254755.5628755766340.618814677897051631151212.5WETL
2024-12-29 15:00:02FORECAST202598-18634.28627.82431.055149.903123291980.9641737492.37417374912.6615.034173749TT2.2867.2866370.7329252546255.5740234028390.609976198004011631151212.5WETL
2024-12-29 11:00:03FORECAST202598-18636.98630.45233.719150.925945107980.8283469041.97834690413.0715.048346904TT4.98615.9866371.3223319508356.0421738893780.723889111202291641151215WETL
2024-12-29 07:00:04FORECAST202598-18634.64628.0431.343153.561278830830.7850397942.29503979413.1515.445039794TT2.64616.6466372.8339209435557.2528536916040.626000588433111631151212.5WETL
2024-12-29 03:00:04FORECAST202598-18635.3327.96831.649154.734362364630.7622051362.26220513613.2915.552205136TT3.3317.336373.5035369742557.7938316346440.655834863241611631151212.5WETL
2024-12-28 23:00:02FORECAST202598-18635.88827.73431.811147.046133347510.7673232491.74732324912.9314.677323249TT3.88821.8886369.0784337131254.2715565794710.6794846102591631151212.5WETL
2024-12-28 19:00:02FORECAST202598-18637.07629.71433.395144.5539598450.7748035681.80480356812.5314.334803568TT5.07623.0766367.6253714027553.1417031757560.727390837009681641151215WETL
2024-12-28 15:00:03FORECAST202598-18639.9229.2134.565144.35009309660.6964570691.68645706912.5314.216457069TT7.9222.926367.5060993615853.0495396564130.82562541683231641151215WETL
2024-12-28 11:00:03FORECAST202598-18635.65430.52433.089148.138136916560.7673232491.58732324912.4914.077323249TT3.65413.6546369.7122342003754.7684815697010.669648513596631631151212.5WETL
2024-12-28 07:00:05FORECAST202598-18634.6122.89228.751148.34308146960.7881894021.62818940212.2813.908189402TT2.6112.616369.8309885211354.8618684601710.624407398402541631151212.5WETL
2024-12-28 03:00:04FORECAST202598-18637.34623.07230.209146.296205521580.0098425251.97984252513.1115.089842525TT5.34624.3466368.6421551940253.9309485001830.737762107235231641151215WETL
2024-12-27 23:00:02FORECAST202598-18632.41431.5531.982145.243079204010.0299212762.18992127613.8616.049921276TT0.41418.4146368.0280830834153.4535320205850.524218040751691631151212.5WETL
2024-12-27 19:00:03FORECAST202598-18633.38632.59432.99143.786371865290.015748042.2557480414.0416.29574804TT1.38623.3866367.1759731213252.794901011220.569146656834691631151212.5WETL
2024-12-27 15:00:03FORECAST202598-18629.98425.39427.689147.075033347170.0149606381.70496063813.615.304960638TT-2.01613.9846369.0952299723354.2846932564620.411804815927871621151210WETL
2024-12-27 11:00:03FORECAST202598-18624.00823.07223.54156.8351925659302.4113.2915.7TT-7.99210.0086374.6977518315658.7657940625230.17863552751446161115127.5WETL
2024-12-27 07:00:05FORECAST202598-18628.00426.4227.212155.985650467990.0763779942.18637799413.5815.766377994TT-3.99615.0046374.2155977600358.3722634318680.324904149587641621151210WETL
2024-12-27 03:00:07FORECAST202598-18628.14827.39227.77161.680687344870.0007874022.16078740213.7915.950787402TT-3.8528.1486377.4279904181961.0228169140060.330976206396771621151210WETL