MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, January 5, 2025

[ Saturday, January 4, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, January 6, 2025 ]

DAY 97 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/06/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.53°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.70°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.61°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.509
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 45

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.08 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.69 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.88 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.57 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 130 in
SWE DAY: 5
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 357.92 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 46.45 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -187

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-06 07:00:03OBSERVATION202597-18732.5299228.7000630.61499129.791407083331.07999999999992.68999999999999.8812.57TT0.5299244.529925357.91665669888 46.454506491510.5089470156977316 31151212.5WETL
2025-01-06 03:00:02OBSERVATION202597-18732.5299228.7000630.61499129.791407083331.07999999999992.68999999999999.8812.57TT0.5299244.529925357.91665669888 46.454506491510.5089470156977316 31151212.5WETL
2025-01-05 11:00:01FORECAST202597-18730.8327.3229.075126.339450148210.7196854282.3296854289.8812.209685428TT-1.1742.835355.8032381402444.951985467590.431908838300631621151210WETL
2025-01-05 07:00:03FORECAST202597-18730.93828.05829.498126.468729488420.8413390372.4513390379.8812.331339037TT-1.06242.9385355.8827222879345.0080357346340.436757753681451621151210WETL
2025-01-05 03:00:03FORECAST202597-18731.69427.60829.651125.776255164320.6196853742.2296853749.8812.109685374TT-0.30643.6945355.4566671998344.7080084735850.47092612461691621151210WETL
2025-01-04 23:00:01FORECAST202597-18731.76627.37429.57125.649991105350.7681106512.4381106519.8812.318110651TT-0.23442.7665355.3789005568544.6533556939990.474195486156481621151210WETL
2025-01-04 19:00:01FORECAST202597-18731.9127.62629.768125.25908829990.6594491752.3294491759.8812.209449175TT-0.0942.915355.1379834416544.4842600265650.480739205624441621151210WETL
2025-01-04 15:00:01FORECAST202597-18732.05427.55429.804125.043302197310.5948822112.2648822119.8812.144882211TT0.05400000000000243.0545355.0048899106244.3909837306170.487288119416291621151210WETL
2025-01-04 11:00:02FORECAST202597-18732.23427.7730.002127.94164688290.4830711272.1530711279.8812.033071127TT0.23443.2345356.7864681857345.6478483252150.495478877609511621151210WETL
2025-01-04 07:00:02FORECAST202597-18732.43228.27430.353126.898845081880.3814962692.0014962699.8811.881496269TT0.43242.4325356.1469802403645.19464047190.504490780573191631151212.5WETL
2025-01-04 03:00:03FORECAST202597-18732.01827.60829.813127.176291568470.4559057582.0459057589.8811.925905758TT0.01800000000000142.0185356.3172869804645.3151111799140.485650500443861621151210WETL
2025-01-03 23:00:01FORECAST202597-18731.92827.6829.804127.548510823820.4629923762.1129923769.8811.992992376TT-0.07199999999999938.9285356.5455802583845.4768578027720.481557571937341621151210WETL
2025-01-03 19:00:01FORECAST202597-18731.13627.37429.255127.337625342310.3629923222.0429923229.8811.922992322TT-0.86437.1365356.4162643442245.3852007349710.445671637386511621151210WETL
2025-01-03 15:00:01FORECAST202597-18730.8327.12228.976127.21510437190.350393892.020393899.8811.90039389TT-1.1736.835356.3411021225245.3319704985130.431908838300631621151210WETL
2025-01-03 11:00:02FORECAST202597-18731.74827.24829.498130.747303100340.3023623682.1023623689.8811.982362368TT-0.25238.7485358.4986236819946.8727282116050.473377974179891621151210WETL
2025-01-03 07:00:04FORECAST202597-18731.78427.06829.426130.146004468930.2877954312.0177954319.8811.897795431TT-0.21639.7845358.1327069524446.6095408795030.475013106807561621151210WETL
2025-01-03 03:00:04FORECAST202597-18730.79425.10627.95130.908259502210.326771832.196771839.8812.07677183TT-1.20636.7945358.5964779654846.9432407940840.430294772526481621151210WETL
2025-01-02 23:00:02FORECAST202597-18730.99227.37429.183132.557067555430.4283466882.2283466889.9512.178346688TT-1.00835.9925359.5965788649447.6670679973010.439185826192231621151210WETL
2025-01-02 19:00:02FORECAST202597-18731.02826.34828.688132.722874447090.3814962692.2814962699.9512.231496269TT-0.97236.0285359.6969191021547.7400090329990.440805819046631621151210WETL
2025-01-02 15:00:02FORECAST202597-18730.59626.25828.427133.025210631370.4027561232.3327561239.9512.282756123TT-1.40434.5965359.879773106147.8730826194090.421438917148161621151210WETL
2025-01-02 11:00:03FORECAST202597-18729.87627.4128.643134.448569470.4570868612.4070868619.9512.357086861TT-2.12433.8765360.738741454948.500807741020.389600904794421621151210WETL
2025-01-02 07:00:03FORECAST202597-18730.32628.16629.246134.582485041540.4751971072.3851971079.9312.315197107TT-1.67433.3265360.8193970839348.5599711107450.409427341592091621151210WETL
2025-01-02 03:00:04FORECAST202597-18729.64225.01627.329134.908777371560.5015750742.2715750741012.271575074TT-2.35829.6425361.0158039425148.7042007216940.379400072628911621151210WETL
2025-01-01 23:00:02FORECAST202597-18730.95626.45628.706135.642824412160.5125987022.52259870210.0312.552598702TT-1.04426.9565361.4570581833749.0290562757030.43756685117331621151210WETL
2025-01-01 19:00:02FORECAST202597-18730.86626.49228.679137.22141071580.5141735062.82417350610.1312.954173506TT-1.13426.8665362.4032038759849.7294788837890.433524041398291621151210WETL
2025-01-01 15:00:04FORECAST202597-18730.84827.57229.21135.397793316170.4169293592.48692935910.0812.566929359TT-1.15228.8485361.3098552622748.9205571058960.432716299336231621151210WETL
2025-01-01 11:00:01FORECAST202597-18730.90226.90628.904137.473228011260.7200791292.76007912910.0212.780079129TT-1.09829.9025362.5537832167549.8414389065020.435140355362821621151210WETL
2025-01-01 07:00:03FORECAST202597-18730.34426.6928.517134.959022472320.7110240062.83102400610.0612.891024006TT-1.65628.3445361.0460337800348.7264197864610.410225605990871621151210WETL
2025-01-01 03:00:03FORECAST202597-18730.4726.09628.283137.792146036140.7141736142.81417361410.1212.934173614TT-1.5328.475362.7443486449749.983322262270.415823696033431621151210WETL
2024-12-31 23:00:02FORECAST202597-18728.05824.96226.51141.557519079620.5401577722.70015777210.1512.850157772TT-3.94221.0585364.9826677148451.6660409487740.312852432171431621151210WETL
2024-12-31 19:00:02FORECAST202597-18728.54424.5326.537140.819235079380.5740160582.72401605810.1212.844016058TT-3.45618.5445364.5454817132251.3350158865020.332750520356491621151210WETL
2024-12-31 15:00:03FORECAST202597-18729.1226.5127.815142.466133697830.6228349823.10283498210.1313.232834982TT-2.8821.125365.5195934122752.0741632642470.35695389236061621151210WETL
2024-12-31 11:00:02FORECAST202597-18729.51625.19627.356143.384331023240.9688981613.04889816110.4213.468898161TT-2.48420.5165366.0609244272952.4874007627540.373941381760531621151210WETL
2024-12-31 07:00:03FORECAST202597-18728.97624.92626.951143.654769628620.9208666393.00086663910.4413.440866639TT-3.02418.9765366.220123263252.609267440740.350844210738181621151210WETL
2024-12-31 03:00:03FORECAST202597-18730.6526.47428.562143.312019968030.9574808322.86748083210.4913.357480832TT-1.3518.655366.0183386149352.4548274522470.423850409762531621151210WETL
2024-12-30 23:00:02FORECAST202597-18729.94825.35827.653140.520356558160.7846460933.18464609310.2813.464646093TT-2.05211.9485364.3682630343251.201158240060.392755347740911621151210WETL
2024-12-30 19:00:02FORECAST202597-18730.05625.19627.626140.169193383280.8586618813.25866188110.1913.448661881TT-1.94413.0565364.1598704344751.0439953013610.397500183785451621151210WETL
2024-12-30 15:00:02FORECAST202597-18729.40824.4426.924141.310345262280.8007878343.14078783410.5213.660787834TT-2.59211.4085364.836391293951.5551564179850.36928248722481621151210WETL
2024-12-30 11:00:03FORECAST202597-18730.23623.73826.987137.604910190680.3539371992.27393719910.4712.743937199TT-1.76411.2365362.6324869468649.9000107985480.405441712392711621151210WETL
2024-12-30 07:00:04FORECAST202597-18729.78623.70226.744137.460971276320.3066930792.32669307910.2912.616693079TT-2.21413.7865362.5464562791649.8359880129220.385668075296621621151210WETL
2024-12-30 03:00:04FORECAST202597-18731.83824.8928.364137.88108145850.6708665042.61086650410.1312.740866504TT-0.16218.8385362.7974633601650.0229065984980.477466586460261621151210WETL
2024-12-29 23:00:02FORECAST202597-18731.74824.15227.95141.482009109870.6133861583.12338615810.613.723386158TT-0.25217.7485364.9379909755751.6321601637420.473377974179891621151210WETL
2024-12-29 19:00:02FORECAST202597-18731.71223.70227.707144.302935665530.6279530953.09795309511.1714.267953095TT-0.28816.7125366.6012337080552.9016342426750.471743289979561621151210WETL
2024-12-29 15:00:02FORECAST202597-18731.35223.86427.608144.112274558610.6279530953.07795309511.1614.237953095TT-0.64817.3525366.4891933966652.8155912615440.45542713611981621151210WETL
2024-12-29 11:00:03FORECAST202597-18733.06226.16829.615146.556190996730.5559058122.87590581211.5114.385905812TT1.06223.0625367.9212376890253.9211351825070.533127558755211631151212.5WETL
2024-12-29 07:00:04FORECAST202597-18732.43227.19429.813149.004745624050.6559058663.03590586611.7914.825905866TT0.43226.4325369.3471126295555.0344725643420.504490780573191631151212.5WETL
2024-12-29 03:00:04FORECAST202597-18732.52227.17629.849150.198138779490.6275593943.00755939411.9514.957559394TT0.52225.5225370.0388574516655.5791476653290.508586618971631151212.5WETL
2024-12-28 23:00:02FORECAST202597-18730.95626.02428.49141.684213983340.5622050282.75220502811.3314.082205028TT-1.04429.9565365.0576096308951.722900479190.43756685117331621151210WETL
2024-12-28 19:00:02FORECAST202597-18731.96426.92429.444139.668982613060.7314964582.46149645811.2713.731496458TT-0.03600000000000129.9645363.8627065970550.8203340412440.483194534288051621151210WETL
2024-12-28 15:00:03FORECAST202597-18731.35226.22228.787139.927881306810.6956696672.39566966711.2913.685669667TT-0.64827.3525364.016559556350.9360659393080.45542713611981621151210WETL
2024-12-28 11:00:03FORECAST202597-18731.87426.47429.174143.252957476830.586614492.0166144911.4613.47661449TT-0.12621.8745365.9835494136852.4282258413780.47910271994141621151210WETL
2024-12-28 07:00:05FORECAST202597-18731.85626.29429.075142.588020940210.5299215461.87992154611.4113.289921546TT-0.14421.8565365.5915257624352.1289721309770.478284607455271621151210WETL
2024-12-28 03:00:04FORECAST202597-18734.44827.17630.812146.367783169521.2791345493.41913454911.8315.249134549TT2.44831.4485367.811153661253.8357031864130.595324779484621631151212.5WETL
2024-12-27 23:00:02FORECAST202597-18734.2526.27630.263145.006707621641.3677172743.70771727412.4816.187717274TT2.2530.255367.0143296033153.2195395857380.586548020821481631151212.5WETL
2024-12-27 19:00:03FORECAST202597-18734.75425.9730.362143.722927627241.4161424974.07614249712.3716.446142497TT2.75433.7545366.2602285168352.6399923158630.608793560082441631151212.5WETL
2024-12-27 15:00:03FORECAST202597-18731.17222.02826.6146.949477456530.7917327112.72173271112.7415.461732711TT-0.82828.1725368.1508597142154.0995764601760.447295434101221621151210WETL
2024-12-27 11:00:03FORECAST202597-18732.46824.31428.391156.835192565931.3181109483.67811094812.1915.868110948TT0.46830.4685373.8479697250958.6325183222150.506129196927191631151212.5WETL
2024-12-27 07:00:04FORECAST202597-18732.55825.7929.174155.217177088181.1578746413.49787464112.3615.857874641TT0.55830.5585372.925275079257.8844084626260.510224725049641631151212.5WETL
2024-12-27 03:00:07FORECAST202597-18732.55825.7929.174161.674648527361.177165993.5271659912.5916.11716599TT0.55823.5585376.5852083234160.8842811962890.510224725049641631151212.5WETL
2024-12-26 23:00:04FORECAST202597-18728.63420.98424.809132.343599026230.4673230871.8773230871314.877323087TT-3.36619.6345359.4673333157247.5732006233640.33648978454451621151210WETL
2024-12-26 19:00:06FORECAST202597-18729.2120.24624.728131.599523301530.4460632332.04606323312.814.846063233TT-2.7920.215359.0162808396447.2463714159830.360791268552581621151210WETL
2024-12-26 15:00:02FORECAST202597-18726.2420.24623.243116.535911913650.1641733171.13417331712.4413.574173317TT-5.7629.245349.6991057382640.7525041825960.24345814903713161114126WETL
2024-12-26 11:00:02FORECAST202597-18719.97615.54817.762127.9495011868201.481415.48TT-12.02425.9765356.791278336345.6512660909390.079179271671527161114126WETL
2024-12-26 07:00:04FORECAST202597-18716.4314.79215.611131.0681087730801.4514.1915.64TT-15.5714.435358.693619577147.0132943469420.034644038297356161114126WETL
2024-12-26 03:00:04FORECAST202597-18716.71815.85416.286138.7882636703901.6114.7616.37TT-15.2829.7185363.338573028350.4271296750740.037249597631174161115127.5WETL