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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, January 4, 2025

[ Friday, January 3, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, January 5, 2025 ]

DAY 96 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/05/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.47°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.95°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.71°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.435
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 49

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.87 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.87 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.73 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.60 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 124 in
SWE DAY: 4
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 353.27 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 43.71 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -188

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-05 07:00:03OBSERVATION202596-18830.4726.9499228.70996123.736629166670.869999999999891.869999999999910.7312.6TT-1.5349.474353.26956236282 43.7123848339590.4350961296130416 21151210WETL
2025-01-05 03:00:02OBSERVATION202596-18830.4726.9499228.70996123.736629166670.869999999999891.869999999999910.7312.6TT-1.5349.474353.26956236282 43.7123848339590.4350961296130416 21151210WETL
2025-01-04 11:00:02FORECAST202596-18828.77822.11825.448126.29892101840.9346461741.93464617410.7312.664646174TT-3.22247.7784354.8565017107944.8179932824350.354318208872941621151210WETL
2025-01-04 07:00:02FORECAST202596-18828.43622.125.268125.611776997150.877953231.8779532310.7312.60795323TT-3.56447.4364354.4319363595344.5208253506610.33863516428341621151210WETL
2025-01-04 03:00:02FORECAST202596-18828.27421.81225.043125.583985688930.8519689641.85196896410.7312.581968964TT-3.72647.2744354.4147493610944.5088168117070.331300848385551621151210WETL
2025-01-03 23:00:01FORECAST202596-18828.70621.77625.241125.831925626330.7527563121.91275631210.7312.642756312TT-3.29443.7064354.5680401704644.6159792602020.350994843626981621151210WETL
2025-01-03 19:00:01FORECAST202596-18828.3120.91224.611125.943120305170.7759846711.93598467110.7312.665984671TT-3.6943.314354.6367558027544.66405960070.332925241144371621151210WETL
2025-01-03 15:00:01FORECAST202596-18828.43621.75825.097125.920556448760.7692917541.92929175410.7312.659291754TT-3.56443.4364354.6228134526644.6543019993860.33863516428341621151210WETL
2025-01-03 11:00:01FORECAST202596-18828.50822.56825.538129.582940575040.9043311972.06433119710.7312.794331197TT-3.49243.5084356.8753951837646.2449631267920.341914803372231621151210WETL
2025-01-03 07:00:04FORECAST202596-18828.61623.01825.817129.080520018580.8114177611.99141776110.7312.721417761TT-3.38444.6164356.567615720646.0259332589990.346856628593231621151210WETL
2025-01-03 03:00:04FORECAST202596-18828.47222.94625.709129.669703716450.8389768312.12897683110.7312.858976831TT-3.52843.4724356.9285059430646.2828136135920.340273474466841621151210WETL
2025-01-02 23:00:02FORECAST202596-18828.74223.12625.934130.860321393090.8362209242.12622092410.7312.856220924TT-3.25841.7424357.6561436366646.8029979045080.352655121300831621151210WETL
2025-01-02 19:00:02FORECAST202596-18828.6723.66626.168131.233629574930.9023626922.23236269210.7312.962362692TT-3.3341.674357.8838355634746.966394707190.349337404231871621151210WETL
2025-01-02 15:00:01FORECAST202596-18828.09423.55825.826131.433363719031.0015753442.26157534410.7312.991575344TT-3.90641.0944358.0055708160747.0538764025080.323226891415061621151210WETL
2025-01-02 11:00:02FORECAST202596-18828.32824.3526.339132.651866060251.0771659362.27716593610.7313.007165936TT-3.67241.3284358.7468953121147.5884451064710.333738616458811621151210WETL
2025-01-02 07:00:03FORECAST202596-18827.93223.88225.907132.710295495151.019685592.2196855910.7312.94968559TT-4.06839.9324358.7823855736247.6141164079310.31603065783911621151210WETL
2025-01-02 03:00:03FORECAST202596-18827.35622.58624.971132.814715881930.9062997022.14629970210.7312.876299702TT-4.64437.3564358.8457977985147.6600026800340.29101764686861621151210WETL
2025-01-01 23:00:02FORECAST202596-18827.39223.73825.565133.432153237461.0606304942.55063049410.613.150630494TT-4.60833.3924359.2204104967647.9315528594270.292553596742741621151210WETL
2025-01-01 19:00:01FORECAST202596-18827.2324.56625.898134.99616330751.263780212.9537802110.613.55378021TT-4.7733.234360.1667047298648.6211232896350.285671681234051621151210WETL
2025-01-01 15:00:03FORECAST202596-18828.5825.59227.086133.672647988941.1897644222.65976442210.613.259764422TT-3.4234.584359.3661649936248.0374268723270.345206407987911621151210WETL
2025-01-01 11:00:01FORECAST202596-18828.77826.02427.401134.343904167560.8381894292.56818942910.613.168189429TT-3.22235.7784359.7725164512748.3332444722510.354318208872941621151210WETL
2025-01-01 07:00:03FORECAST202596-18829.13825.91627.527132.48598407730.8850398482.65503984810.6313.285039848TT-2.86235.1384358.6461092552647.5155827201790.371097271793751621151210WETL
2025-01-01 03:00:03FORECAST202596-18828.425.91627.158134.330579466760.9440949982.68409499810.6513.334094998TT-3.635.44359.7644569521148.3273679739210.336999899947911621151210WETL
2024-12-31 23:00:02FORECAST202596-18826.622.51424.557137.819852019821.1988195452.67881954510.7413.418819545TT-5.429.64361.8656682687749.8722728518550.259665687968011621151210WETL
2024-12-31 19:00:02FORECAST202596-18826.40222.76624.584137.778168742751.2023628542.65236285410.7313.382362854TT-5.59827.4024361.8406766872949.8537458106120.25175197171851621151210WETL
2024-12-31 15:00:02FORECAST202596-18826.2422.62224.431139.316115619481.4862212752.91622127510.813.716221275TT-5.7629.244362.7610165315250.5384557213430.24537297141125161115127.5WETL
2024-12-31 11:00:02FORECAST202596-18825.73622.6424.188138.64301679531.2153549872.85535498710.7513.605354987TT-6.26427.7364362.3586623787550.2384981141010.22609421961243161115127.5WETL
2024-12-31 07:00:03FORECAST202596-18826.38422.29824.341139.11840161491.1724415782.85244157810.7813.632441578TT-5.61627.3844362.6429015897850.4503008261590.251038902013011621151210WETL
2024-12-31 03:00:03FORECAST202596-18826.36624.63825.502138.70703653040.7507878072.69078780710.8213.510787807TT-5.63425.3664362.3969606716850.2670084623910.250326900787651621151210WETL
2024-12-30 23:00:02FORECAST202596-18826.9624.94425.952136.168785641771.0566934843.11669348410.6713.786693484TT-5.0418.964360.8737305667849.1397376612920.27437585217921621151210WETL
2024-12-30 19:00:02FORECAST202596-18827.24824.78226.015135.471291387180.9657485533.00574855310.6913.695748553TT-4.75220.2484360.4534342395448.8310922213730.286432525837931621151210WETL
2024-12-30 15:00:02FORECAST202596-18827.17624.06225.619136.874246334970.94488243.124882410.8513.9748824TT-4.82419.1764361.2980705716549.4524011117740.283394928860211621151210WETL
2024-12-30 11:00:03FORECAST202596-18826.83423.93625.385135.68848897290.4799215192.62992151910.8713.499921519TT-5.16617.8344360.584393077348.9271514438710.269180890654341621151210WETL
2024-12-30 07:00:04FORECAST202596-18826.6923.86425.277135.745143466810.6051184372.67511843710.7413.415118437TT-5.3120.694360.6185409091148.95221557250.263304759614151621151210WETL
2024-12-30 03:00:04FORECAST202596-18827.89625.1626.528134.39579587470.5665357392.49653573910.6813.176535739TT-4.10423.8964359.8039007606848.3561316015550.314440784489271621151210WETL
2024-12-29 23:00:02FORECAST202596-18826.76224.3525.556137.848117488520.8417327383.39173273810.8314.221732738TT-5.23822.7624361.8826135778549.8848370335310.266234629408421621151210WETL
2024-12-29 19:00:02FORECAST202596-18826.27623.77425.025140.529159986980.7779531763.49795317611.2514.747953176TT-5.72422.2764363.4843959547251.0801568318930.24678298950027161115127.5WETL
2024-12-29 15:00:02FORECAST202596-18826.85224.40425.628140.271074258860.7763783723.45637837211.2614.716378372TT-5.14822.8524363.3306772985250.9647844158630.269920000231261621151210WETL
2024-12-29 11:00:03FORECAST202596-18829.53424.78227.158143.583187464260.5854333873.48543338711.4514.935433387TT-2.46626.5344365.2957769297152.4503320188010.389840221108531621151210WETL
2024-12-29 07:00:04FORECAST202596-18829.6625.23227.446145.381978092450.850394163.5403941611.7415.28039416TT-2.3430.664366.3561047974353.2615752016970.395860357997691621151210WETL
2024-12-29 03:00:04FORECAST202596-18829.71424.90827.311146.640933235650.8708666123.59086661211.8515.440866612TT-2.28629.7144367.0953408024553.831203361730.398448131111481621151210WETL
2024-12-28 23:00:02FORECAST202596-18831.13624.76427.95137.708390346340.4181104622.58811046212.0414.628110462TT-0.86436.1364361.7988345031749.8227351286120.467861162206691621151210WETL
2024-12-28 19:00:02FORECAST202596-18831.53224.90828.22135.137556996520.2976379562.11763795611.9914.107637956TT-0.46834.5324360.2520689286548.6835844979580.487461409447081621151210WETL
2024-12-28 15:00:02FORECAST202596-18830.77624.54827.662135.520921713340.2901576372.08015763712.0214.100157637TT-1.22432.7764360.4833651112348.8530379022010.450108876993471621151210WETL
2024-12-28 11:00:03FORECAST202596-18830.32625.53827.932139.531579190060.2295276831.84952768312.1513.999527683TT-1.67427.3264362.889667592250.6345683908960.428062198693831621151210WETL
2024-12-28 07:00:04FORECAST202596-18830.05626.00628.031138.920523452240.3094489861.74944898612.1213.869448986TT-1.94427.0564362.5246291741350.3621112492010.414936684040611621151210WETL
2024-12-28 03:00:04FORECAST202596-18829.82225.77227.797142.713203329170.6881893482.76818934812.3115.078189348TT-2.17833.8224364.7812091646252.0590948741720.403636984768191621151210WETL
2024-12-27 23:00:02FORECAST202596-18829.0326.627.815141.266226901080.7850397943.50503979412.4215.925039794TT-2.9733.034363.9228465681651.4100074177840.366036081547151621151210WETL
2024-12-27 19:00:03FORECAST202596-18828.11225.86226.987140.715714178020.8177169773.83771697712.316.137716977TT-3.88836.1124363.59544692451.1635929857860.324030633252441621151210WETL
2024-12-27 15:00:03FORECAST202596-18828.68824.78226.735140.668720576220.8956697753.10566977512.6715.775669775TT-3.31233.6884363.5674777850251.1425719431410.350165767377141621151210WETL
2024-12-27 11:00:02FORECAST202596-18829.42626.04227.734146.714029892751.0885832653.36858326512.2915.658583265TT-2.57435.4264367.1381892891353.8643232781370.384700988367891621151210WETL
2024-12-27 07:00:04FORECAST202596-18829.3926.13227.761146.4636726770.9531501213.19315012112.6215.813150121TT-2.6135.394366.9913994952653.7509082109480.382992352436231621151210WETL
2024-12-27 03:00:06FORECAST202596-18829.3926.13227.761152.509842132780.9838587993.23385879912.8216.053858799TT-2.6128.394370.5104347646756.5064879145060.382992352436231621151210WETL
2024-12-26 23:00:04FORECAST202596-18828.50824.81826.663128.061816789470.874016222.7840162212.7415.52401622TT-3.49227.5084355.9423580994145.5826250505380.341914803372231621151210WETL
2024-12-26 19:00:06FORECAST202596-18829.44424.33226.888127.58769767420.8480319542.99803195412.5115.508031954TT-2.55628.4444355.6508020521345.3766670098150.385556148934481621151210WETL
2024-12-26 15:00:02FORECAST202596-18833.3526.25829.804114.857979278960.3960632062.5160632061214.516063206TT1.3540.354347.690035183339.9349748565830.577106351692881631151212.5WETL
2024-12-26 11:00:02FORECAST202596-18832.57620.73226.654127.949501186820.2653544744.01535447412.5716.585354474TT0.57642.5764355.8733221818945.5338140588710.539156056202081631151212.5WETL
2024-12-26 07:00:04FORECAST202596-18830.70417.38424.044131.068108773080.2944883483.93448834812.8216.754488348TT-1.29634.7044357.7829060717246.8939288501580.446569218920941621151210WETL
2024-12-26 03:00:04FORECAST202596-18825.73617.56421.65138.788263670390.3562994053.60629940513.8717.476299405TT-6.26429.7364362.4455439251250.3031877164370.22609421961243161115127.5WETL
2024-12-25 23:00:02FORECAST202596-18826.0621.72223.891143.828571797030.4078742362.96787423615.1518.117874236TT-5.9425.064365.4407084363252.5608151708920.23838819034389161115127.5WETL
2024-12-25 19:00:02FORECAST202596-18826.99624.51225.754142.159233927790.4452758312.60527583115.0317.635275831TT-5.00428.9964364.4529609630651.8103537332230.27586915394081621151210WETL
2024-12-25 15:00:03FORECAST202596-18828.05824.72826.393147.148910115380.4582679643.13826796414.1117.248267964TT-3.94227.0584367.3929470799854.0614717468990.321621881967321621151210WETL
2024-12-25 11:00:03FORECAST202596-18826.6923.84625.268151.325681826470.1421260612.71212606114.6617.372126061TT-5.3129.694369.8254703033155.9640914504440.263304759614151621151210WETL
2024-12-25 07:00:04FORECAST202596-18829.64226.8728.256152.191694685620.0633858612.24338586114.6716.913385861TT-2.35831.6424370.3266082394656.360634095140.394998779555781621151210WETL
2024-12-25 03:00:04FORECAST202596-18829.44429.40829.426151.836151997510.0535433362.20354333614.5216.723543336TT-2.55633.4444370.1209987918756.1977482300340.385556148934481621151210WETL