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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 31, 2025

[ Thursday, January 30, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, February 1, 2025 ]

DAY 123 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/01/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.07°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.22°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.15°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.441
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 129

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.51 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.51 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.07 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.58 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 122 in
SWE DAY: 31
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 376.24 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 45.96 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -161

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-01 07:00:02OBSERVATION2025123-16132.0700226.2200229.14502122.158548333331.51000000000011.51000000000010.071.5800000000001FF0.07002129.0700231376.23727292264 45.9605990891220.4411774181099216 21151210DRYL
2025-02-01 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025123-16132.0700226.2200229.14502122.158548333331.51000000000011.51000000000010.071.5800000000001FF0.07002129.0700231376.23727292264 45.9605990891220.4411774181099216 21151210DRYL
2025-01-31 11:00:01FORECAST2025123-16127.19420.60623.9121.116184456892.488190322.488190320.072.55819032TF-4.806124.19431375.649620152545.4972486855520.255189839298511621151210DRYL
2025-01-31 07:00:03FORECAST2025123-16127.57222.124.836121.511169881272.7137809932.7137809930.072.783780993TF-4.428124.57231375.8724839162645.6727052468430.268061639098171621151210DRYL
2025-01-31 03:00:03FORECAST2025123-16127.48223.4525.466121.686868113082.7311038372.7311038370.072.801103837TF-4.518124.48231375.971546808745.7508000307820.264967571734771621151210DRYL
2025-01-30 23:00:01FORECAST2025123-16127.66223.01825.34121.696733963852.5228360082.6528360080.072.722836008TF-4.338115.66231375.9771081020445.7551861011910.271173766237131621151210DRYL
2025-01-30 19:00:02FORECAST2025123-16128.36423.55825.961120.973119718642.3657493092.4957493090.072.565749309TF-3.636116.36431375.568843148145.4337346247460.296048156503051621151210DRYL
2025-01-30 15:00:02FORECAST2025123-16127.42823.91825.673120.268040605882.177166532.307166530.072.37716653FF-4.572115.42831375.1703133116645.1209984754860.263119869770641621151210DRYL
2025-01-30 11:00:01FORECAST2025123-16128.0424.18826.114121.393745622732.3574815882.4874815880.072.557481588TF-3.96116.0431375.8062526419745.620528636650.284437968219571621151210DRYL
2025-01-30 07:00:03FORECAST2025123-16128.1323.93626.033121.812110237192.4314973762.5714973760.072.641497376TF-3.87118.1331376.0421343494545.8064859232040.287641148469611621151210DRYL
2025-01-30 03:00:03FORECAST2025123-16128.90425.14227.023121.614742954222.4118123262.5318123260.072.601812326TF-3.096117.90431375.9308862569945.7187381006970.315866090886931621151210DRYL
2025-01-29 23:00:01FORECAST2025123-16129.15625.01627.086121.48275657932.0751979712.1351979710.072.205197971FF-2.844113.15631375.8564596594945.6600787975720.325303491418381621151210DRYL
2025-01-29 19:00:02FORECAST2025123-16129.46224.94427.203121.60731094442.1401586362.2101586360.072.280158636FF-2.538113.46231375.9266960387945.715434617490.336915008688541621151210DRYL
2025-01-29 15:00:02FORECAST2025123-16129.35425.5227.437121.208385365352.0645680442.1045680440.072.174568044FF-2.646113.35431375.7016629431145.5381919444130.332798343400311621151210DRYL
2025-01-29 11:00:02FORECAST2025123-16128.90425.17827.041121.941628752882.271654772.311654770.072.38165477FF-3.096113.90431376.1151084870845.8640889274790.315866090886931621151210DRYL
2025-01-29 07:00:03FORECAST2025123-16128.38224.94426.663123.009753682982.4909462272.5609462270.072.630946227TF-3.618111.38231376.7160036811946.339742821260.296699489637711621151210DRYL
2025-01-29 03:00:03FORECAST2025123-16128.34624.65626.501122.846953306952.4196863462.4896863460.072.559686346TF-3.654110.34631376.6245223201846.267175107720.295397479768321621151210DRYL
2025-01-28 23:00:02FORECAST2025123-16128.47225.3426.906124.411105235192.4307099742.5007099740.072.570709974TF-3.528102.47231377.5018937927546.9654278351340.299965943493851621151210DRYL
2025-01-28 19:00:02FORECAST2025123-16128.83225.68227.257124.059501379512.3515760732.4015760730.072.471576073FF-3.168102.83231377.3049741011546.8082669549960.313191224757651621151210DRYL
2025-01-28 15:00:02FORECAST2025123-16128.43625.727.068124.22141858462.3783477412.4483477410.072.518347741FF-3.564103.43631377.3956794980146.8806266749440.298657410953891621151210DRYL
2025-01-28 11:00:02FORECAST2025123-16128.83225.3427.086123.605396022392.3409461462.4309461460.072.500946146FF-3.168103.83231377.0503869125746.6054623947220.313191224757651621151210DRYL
2025-01-28 07:00:03FORECAST2025123-16128.41825.48426.951123.085221035882.2350405772.2850405770.072.355040577FF-3.582104.41831376.7583977314646.37339066190.298004118518171621151210DRYL
2025-01-28 03:00:04FORECAST2025123-16128.43625.57427.005123.96706700942.3799225452.4499225450.072.519922545FF-3.564104.43631377.2531759925646.7669697477790.298657410953891621151210DRYL
2025-01-27 23:00:02FORECAST2025123-16129.10225.64627.374124.180897383392.1114184632.1614184630.072.231418463FF-2.89894.10231377.3729831761946.8625156990650.32327147481471621151210DRYL
2025-01-27 19:00:02FORECAST2025123-16128.97625.55627.266124.475197638452.1685051082.2285051080.072.298505108FF-3.02492.97631377.5377705169246.9940886010760.318550626227831621151210DRYL
2025-01-27 15:00:02FORECAST2025123-16128.68824.9826.834124.086892052632.0858278982.1158278980.072.185827898FF-3.31290.68831377.3203208727646.8205059254040.307870963204631621151210DRYL
2025-01-27 11:00:02FORECAST2025123-16128.92223.73826.33124.188937824622.1893712612.2093712610.072.279371261FF-3.07893.92231377.3774868918846.8661092560270.316536322804361621151210DRYL
2025-01-27 07:00:04FORECAST2025123-16129.76825.01627.392123.563373339132.1251979982.1351979980.072.205197998FF-2.23297.76831377.0268126933946.5867048156960.348683967857171621151210DRYL
2025-01-27 03:00:04FORECAST2025123-16130.23626.8728.553122.660588455391.9637805881.9737805880.072.043780588FF-1.764101.23631376.5197530772646.1841344775360.366965040694041621151210DRYL
2025-01-26 23:00:02FORECAST2025123-16130.63226.65428.643122.267987631381.7433080281.7833080280.071.853308028FF-1.36889.63231376.2988812370946.0093069567980.38267474578081621151210DRYL
2025-01-26 19:00:02FORECAST2025123-16130.68626.61828.652122.169411055681.7173237621.7573237620.071.827323762FF-1.31489.68631376.2433888043445.965433223820.384832670230751621151210DRYL
2025-01-26 15:00:02FORECAST2025123-16130.45226.628.526122.158509839771.6992135161.7392135160.071.809213516FF-1.54888.45231376.2372512498645.9605819588930.375508268427971621151210DRYL
2025-01-26 11:00:02FORECAST2025123-16130.36226.5128.436120.665039327351.4023629621.4923629620.071.562362962FF-1.63890.36231375.3947955494645.2970277682580.37194089511317162114128DRYL
2025-01-26 07:00:04FORECAST2025123-16130.05626.54628.301120.647881617921.3086621241.4086621240.071.478662124FF-1.94491.05631375.3850984318645.2894169167370.35989544545105162114128DRYL
2025-01-26 03:00:04FORECAST2025123-16129.10225.73627.419120.3224015791.1846463091.2846463090.071.354646309FF-2.89890.10231375.2010650069445.1450932166350.3232714748147162114128DRYL
2025-01-25 23:00:02FORECAST2025123-16129.40822.56825.988121.350766698471.212599081.272599080.071.34259908FF-2.59286.40831375.7820061286745.6014345552040.3348541970061162114128DRYL
2025-01-25 19:00:02FORECAST2025123-16128.77821.52425.151121.588226537951.1346462821.2746462820.071.344646282FF-3.22282.77831375.9159357569645.7069519560420.31119149051134162114128DRYL
2025-01-25 15:00:02FORECAST2025123-16127.10418.82422.964121.411696560660.9208666391.1708666390.071.240866639FF-4.89679.10431375.8163788604545.6285041527320.25217340050429162114128DRYL
2025-01-25 11:00:02FORECAST2025123-16127.33819.423.369118.099782735520.4405514190.7205514190.070.790551419FF-4.66287.33831373.9402733689444.1622650409330.26005504423143162113126DRYL
2025-01-25 07:00:04FORECAST2025123-16127.7718.8623.315117.59094282170.3090552850.5890552850.070.659055285FF-4.2389.7731373.6506287272543.9379297179580.2749319159895162113126DRYL
2025-01-25 03:00:03FORECAST2025123-16128.34619.20223.774119.066452462010.5204727220.7804727220.070.850472722FF-3.65488.34631374.4894963508644.5891358147830.29539747976832162113126DRYL
2025-01-24 23:00:02FORECAST2025123-16126.72620.8423.783121.158179835290.6007877260.8807877260.070.950787726FF-5.27478.72631375.6733259497145.5158963847370.23971222887448161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-24 19:00:02FORECAST2025123-16127.15821.54224.35120.660510968030.5909452010.8509452010.070.920945201FF-4.84282.15831375.3922362726145.2950190420860.25398100723836162113126DRYL
2025-01-24 15:00:02FORECAST2025123-16126.47421.27223.873122.534680240990.7248035411.1548035410.071.224803541FF-5.52680.47431376.4489428324246.1280508370310.2315948974088161114126DRYL
2025-01-24 11:00:02FORECAST2025123-16126.56422.78424.674122.718989529050.8003941331.1303941330.071.200394133FF-5.43675.56431376.5525899057546.210153337780.23447625268887161114126DRYL
2025-01-24 07:00:04FORECAST2025123-16126.99621.90224.449121.399922613240.5480317920.9380317920.071.008031792FF-5.00478.99631375.809737166945.6232730093650.2485786129606161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-24 03:00:04FORECAST2025123-16126.99623.25225.124121.281817484810.4102364421.0102364420.071.080236442FF-5.00480.99631375.7431029752145.5708064362170.2485786129606161114126DRYL
2025-01-23 23:00:03FORECAST2025123-16125.28621.97423.63124.47089834230.5728349551.2128349550.071.282834955FF-6.71472.28631377.5353641014746.9921659256990.19545685353373161114126DRYL
2025-01-23 19:00:02FORECAST2025123-16124.92621.61423.27124.954388997570.5259845361.2559845360.071.325984536FF-7.07470.92631377.8058203735847.2084954445060.18521968880012161114126DRYL
2025-01-23 15:00:02FORECAST2025123-16128.97625.57427.275125.991643537931.1389769931.3589769930.071.428976993FF-3.02471.97631378.3849231441447.6733383569050.31855062622783162114128DRYL
2025-01-23 11:00:03FORECAST2025123-16128.25624.3526.303130.825902556861.7696859951.9796859950.072.049685995FF-3.74467.25631381.0638716161949.8530249359980.292153999245411621151210DRYL
2025-01-23 07:00:04FORECAST2025123-16128.29224.06226.177130.264300968331.6748040541.9448040540.072.014804054FF-3.70869.29231380.7543410950349.5986980834010.293449404324531621151210DRYL
2025-01-23 03:00:05FORECAST2025123-16130.36222.51426.438127.359851927691.2078746681.5778746680.071.647874668FF-1.63876.36231379.1464687166948.2880381146640.371940895113171621151210DRYL
2025-01-22 23:00:03FORECAST2025123-16129.15619.8524.503123.224903541430.5413388750.8213388750.070.891338875FF-2.84458.15631376.8368434318646.4356836827490.32530349141838162113126DRYL
2025-01-22 19:00:05FORECAST2025123-16128.36419.23823.801124.517387674810.6673231950.9573231950.071.027323195FF-3.63655.36431377.5613838614747.0129572053160.29604815650305162113126DRYL
2025-01-22 15:00:03FORECAST2025123-16130.32623.77427.05129.990336554731.6177174091.7077174090.071.777717409FF-1.67463.32631380.6031834430349.4747359095610.370516997568121621151210DRYL
2025-01-22 11:00:03FORECAST2025123-16135.16827.08631.127133.095140707672.0948830212.1648830210.072.234883021FF3.16862.16831382.3100907966250.8836153285380.569930130503561631151212.5DRYL
2025-01-22 07:00:04FORECAST2025123-16137.88627.9532.918130.514904535221.8259852381.8759852380.071.945985238FF5.88671.88631380.8925175041549.7121505602350.677463984377931631151212.5DRYL
2025-01-22 03:00:04FORECAST2025123-16137.88625.53831.712124.497920213270.877953231.087953230.071.15795323FF5.88667.88631377.5504884309147.0042505851520.677463984377931631141210DRYL
2025-01-21 23:00:03FORECAST2025123-16131.94623.93627.941122.498279496690.1007874560.5507874560.070.620787456FF-0.05399999999999857.94631376.4284669882546.1118395596360.43606146747293162113126DRYL
2025-01-21 19:00:03FORECAST2025123-16129.6623.8126.735122.224363874130.0921260340.4921260340.070.562126034FF-2.3450.6631376.2743255102145.9898900776520.34451286160719162113126DRYL
2025-01-21 15:00:03FORECAST2025123-16129.69621.77625.736126.319337409710.1759843470.9159843470.070.985984347FF-2.30446.69631378.5675588393147.8204031973930.34590116230144162113126DRYL
2025-01-21 11:00:03FORECAST2025123-16121.66820.85821.263122.923722894020.0523622330.5523622330.070.622362233FF-10.33238.66831376.6676656703946.3013917580060.10806103600961161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-21 07:00:04FORECAST2025123-16133.09832.55832.828119.3310568517300.260.080.34FF1.09868.09831374.6395990195144.7061392895050.48388149193172162112124DRYL
2025-01-21 03:00:04FORECAST2025123-16132.2731.62231.946117.9592509976900.110.070.18FF0.2772.2731373.8603165375144.1002829165230.44944714488292162112124DRYL