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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, January 30, 2025

[ Wednesday, January 29, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, January 31, 2025 ]

DAY 122 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/31/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.53°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.79°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.16°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.767
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 131

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.07 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.07 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 112 in
SWE DAY: 30
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 369.38 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 41.24 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -162

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-31 07:00:03OBSERVATION2025122-16239.5299430.7900435.15999111.65496041667000.070.07FF7.52994130.5299430369.37717577275 41.2427939397270.7674424921759716 4111123DRYL
2025-01-31 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025122-16239.5299430.7900435.15999111.65496041667000.070.07FF7.52994130.5299430369.37717577275 41.2427939397270.7674424921759716 4111123DRYL
2025-01-30 11:00:01FORECAST2025122-16231.4625.46628.463112.482392766590.1275591240.1275591240.070.197559124FF-0.54122.4630369.8569528583941.6023950388730.43046984848034162112124DRYL
2025-01-30 07:00:03FORECAST2025122-16232.50425.50229.003112.625887674750.1393701540.1393701540.070.209370154FF0.504123.50430369.9400541741241.6648269878070.4768653271809162112124DRYL
2025-01-30 03:00:03FORECAST2025122-16231.7325.39428.562112.55022904210.11811030.11811030.070.1881103FF-0.27122.7330369.8962422345141.6319067853060.44240310925391162112124DRYL
2025-01-29 23:00:01FORECAST2025122-16231.92825.53828.733113.246925277290.0622047580.0622047580.070.132204758FF-0.071999999999999117.92830370.2993628200241.9352642715080.45118813596678162111122DRYL
2025-01-29 19:00:01FORECAST2025122-16232.12625.19628.661113.275110507460.0696850770.0696850770.070.139685077FF0.126118.12630370.3156562766941.9475468873840.45999713567927162111122DRYL
2025-01-29 15:00:01FORECAST2025122-16231.85625.21428.535113.147221995550.0374015950.0374015950.070.107401595FF-0.144117.85630370.2417164936141.8918216881160.4479905823015162111122DRYL
2025-01-29 11:00:02FORECAST2025122-16233.06225.53829.3112.961773068380.03937010.03937010.070.1093701FF1.062119.06230370.1344550128941.8110443119560.50183314452091163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-29 07:00:03FORECAST2025122-16231.85625.10628.481113.041363627870.0716535820.0716535820.070.141653582FF-0.144116.85630370.1804954463441.8457079936960.4479905823015162111122DRYL
2025-01-29 03:00:03FORECAST2025122-16231.40624.94428.175113.057623380210.0728346850.0728346850.070.142834685FF-0.594116.40630370.1899000155141.8527902951120.42809043678113162111122DRYL
2025-01-28 23:00:01FORECAST2025122-16231.49624.74628.121114.10522543410.070866180.070866180.070.14086618FF-0.504108.49630370.7950104902842.3096482618320.43205753199859162111122DRYL
2025-01-28 19:00:02FORECAST2025122-16231.15423.93627.545114.03667116770.0519685320.0519685320.070.121968532FF-0.846108.15430370.7554617465942.2797186748240.41702240342592162111122DRYL
2025-01-28 15:00:02FORECAST2025122-16231.9124.8928.4114.093847020050.0692913760.0692913760.070.139291376FF-0.09108.9130370.7884467951442.3046803254480.45038844230028162111122DRYL
2025-01-28 11:00:02FORECAST2025122-16231.26224.24227.752113.71358578560.0917323330.0917323330.070.161732333FF-0.738109.26230370.5689820579842.1387277307320.4217583347562162112124DRYL
2025-01-28 07:00:03FORECAST2025122-16231.33424.20627.77113.594917519170.0480315220.0480315220.070.118031522FF-0.666110.33430370.5004502065242.0869680820240.42492196467113162111122DRYL
2025-01-28 03:00:03FORECAST2025122-16231.58624.31427.95113.684672529320.066929170.066929170.070.13692917FF-0.414109.58630370.5522863297642.1261153263880.43603148916961162111122DRYL
2025-01-27 23:00:02FORECAST2025122-16232.6325.98829.309114.517385067290.0543307380.0543307380.070.124330738FF0.6398.6330371.0326389969642.4896875925470.48249878985595162111122DRYL
2025-01-27 19:00:02FORECAST2025122-16232.95425.93429.444114.570666107320.0637795620.0637795620.070.133779562FF0.95497.95430371.0633397510142.5129740032810.49699818470398162111122DRYL
2025-01-27 15:00:02FORECAST2025122-1623224.83628.418114.477777879590.0283464720.0283464720.070.098346472FF09630371.0098144803842.4723791332330.45438885995578162111122DRYL
2025-01-27 11:00:02FORECAST2025122-16234.37626.54630.461114.054959050620.015748040.015748040.070.08574804FF2.37699.37630370.7660126430542.2877023893630.56042600399298163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-27 07:00:04FORECAST2025122-16233.72827.03230.38114.037892813010.0114173290.0114173290.070.081417329FF1.728101.72830370.7561665702642.2802519831030.5316157849339163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-27 03:00:04FORECAST2025122-16236.62628.09432.36113.856749647210.0074803190.0074803190.070.077480319FF4.626104.62630370.651632819142.2011901642140.65709278465502163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-26 23:00:02FORECAST2025122-16237.23828.05832.648113.990483694330.0370078940.0370078940.070.107007894FF5.23893.23830370.7288124533642.2595566509840.68197238972679163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-26 19:00:02FORECAST2025122-16237.428.68833.044114.01298663410.03937010.03937010.070.1093701FF5.493.430370.7417966119442.269379501820.68842878827299163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-26 15:00:01FORECAST2025122-16236.17627.5931.883114.038999679560.0389763990.0389763990.070.108976399FF4.17692.17630370.7568051708542.2807351860750.63834653807035163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-26 11:00:02FORECAST2025122-16237.18429.35433.269114.114726824430.0893701270.0893701270.070.159370127FF5.18494.18430370.8004912695542.3137967675910.67980778818013163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-26 07:00:04FORECAST2025122-16237.20228.97633.089114.523611461840.0960630440.0960630440.070.166063044FF5.20295.20230371.0362268854742.4924086860980.68053000641591163112125DRYL
2025-01-26 03:00:04FORECAST2025122-16236.53628.36432.45114.533134556270.0964567450.0964567450.070.166456745FF4.53694.53630371.0417143497442.4965705956070.65337256888305163112125DRYL
2025-01-25 23:00:02FORECAST2025122-16237.4929.44433.467114.664333683550.0637795620.0637795620.070.133779562FF5.4991.4930371.1173013216242.553918074480.69199098796174163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-25 19:00:02FORECAST2025122-16237.11228.43632.774115.285747177890.1429134630.1429134630.070.212913463FF5.11288.11230371.4749705827942.8257695415210.67691212503252163112125DRYL
2025-01-25 15:00:02FORECAST2025122-16236.69827.44632.072115.804829758650.2515749390.2515749390.070.321574939FF4.69885.69830371.7733084179643.0531446901510.66005805722216163112125DRYL
2025-01-25 11:00:02FORECAST2025122-16238.98429.04834.016115.358162025070.2771655040.2771655040.070.347165504FF6.98493.98430371.5166139489842.8574737469340.74830756548159164112126DRYL
2025-01-25 07:00:03FORECAST2025122-16239.23628.97634.106115.763307025130.2763781020.2763781020.070.346378102FF7.23696.23630371.7494580884443.0349466531180.75724177356111164112126DRYL
2025-01-25 03:00:03FORECAST2025122-16238.19229.333.746115.735328741890.2578741550.2578741550.070.327874155FF6.19294.19230371.7333861654243.0226856521910.71913873274513164112126DRYL
2025-01-24 23:00:02FORECAST2025122-16235.8726.90631.388117.021798008520.27559070.27559070.070.3455907FF3.8785.8730372.4712092922143.5872506177820.62540346530031163112125DRYL
2025-01-24 19:00:02FORECAST2025122-16236.51827.30231.91116.707226927880.2622048660.2622048660.070.332204866FF4.51888.51830372.2910173332843.4490522431260.65262673447243163112125DRYL
2025-01-24 15:00:02FORECAST2025122-16234.91626.61830.767117.513818854670.4275592860.4275592860.070.497559286FF2.91687.91630372.7527591119843.8036002118650.58419889004081163112125DRYL
2025-01-24 11:00:02FORECAST2025122-16233.51226.31229.912117.333432316260.3287403350.3287403350.070.398740335FF1.51282.51230372.6495771059343.724253933040.52196784827892163112125DRYL
2025-01-24 07:00:04FORECAST2025122-16234.35827.48230.92117.598580253010.3940947010.3940947010.070.464094701FF2.35886.35830372.8012267336243.8408949804530.55962931076125163112125DRYL
2025-01-24 03:00:04FORECAST2025122-16234.50227.39230.947118.50443756330.5968507160.5968507160.070.666850716FF2.50287.50230373.3185560676844.2399055187430.56599582959099163113127.5DRYL
2025-01-23 23:00:02FORECAST2025122-16236.39225.95231.172119.92626295230.6421263310.6421263310.070.712126331FF4.39281.39230374.1281549015344.8677914825780.64738948720214163113127.5DRYL
2025-01-23 19:00:02FORECAST2025122-16233.8923.68428.787120.717024670420.7318901590.7318901590.070.801890159FF1.8979.8930374.5771573621545.2178399462620.53883988240281163113127.5DRYL
2025-01-23 15:00:02FORECAST2025122-16234.21425.41229.813118.097101224030.220472560.220472560.070.29047256FF2.21477.21430373.0860761571544.0603841012080.55324733999608163112125DRYL
2025-01-23 11:00:03FORECAST2025122-16232.41426.3329.372118.233889817920.2149607460.2149607460.070.284960746FF0.41473.41430373.1641726198744.1206516695330.47284418826763162112124DRYL
2025-01-23 07:00:04FORECAST2025122-16232.16226.2429.201118.157078199330.2736221950.2736221950.070.343622195FF0.16275.16230373.1203220428144.0868070693710.46160101262758162112124DRYL
2025-01-23 03:00:05FORECAST2025122-16233.96228.47231.217118.551059086140.3720474450.3720474450.070.442047445FF1.96279.96230373.3451491285544.2604628338640.54204662604199163112125DRYL
2025-01-22 23:00:03FORECAST2025122-16232.03626.9629.498118.847312339410.27559070.27559070.070.3455907FF0.03600000000000163.03630373.514059336544.3911420731250.45599034647925162112124DRYL
2025-01-22 19:00:05FORECAST2025122-16231.65826.76229.21119.005825069550.2933072450.2933072450.070.363307245FF-0.34260.65830373.604383943244.4610979607630.43921533078933162112124DRYL
2025-01-22 15:00:03FORECAST2025122-16234.01627.10430.56117.160449839670.094488240.094488240.070.16448824FF2.01667.01630372.550585845343.6481942256690.54444990055507163112125DRYL
2025-01-22 11:00:03FORECAST2025122-16234.9728.18431.577117.358997976410.0688976750.0688976750.070.138897675FF2.9760.9730372.6642036674643.7354975240910.58656081075358163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-22 07:00:04FORECAST2025122-16237.07629.17433.125116.818422203290.0476378210.0476378210.070.117637821FF5.07668.07630372.3547284342343.4978918756220.6754602517781163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-22 03:00:04FORECAST2025122-16235.6927.62631.658118.069784960630.2102363340.2102363340.070.280236334FF3.6963.6930373.0704772820544.0483510278510.61772229696901163112125DRYL
2025-01-21 23:00:03FORECAST2025122-16231.92825.4328.679121.430701892060.4539372530.4539372530.070.523937253FF-0.07199999999999959.92830374.9816169430245.5342809420110.45118813596678162112124DRYL
2025-01-21 19:00:03FORECAST2025122-16231.9125.53828.724121.245972421630.4027561230.4027561230.070.472756123FF-0.0954.9130374.8769962293345.4523259463230.45038844230028162112124DRYL
2025-01-21 15:00:03FORECAST2025122-16228.14822.22625.187124.26242889810.6830712350.7430712350.070.813071235FF-3.85251.14830376.5792243645446.79464909210.29223995824524162113126DRYL
2025-01-21 11:00:03FORECAST2025122-16228.8522.04625.448122.291489618910.4964569610.4964569610.070.566456961FF-3.1550.8530375.4684734542345.9165989236540.319866917977162113126DRYL
2025-01-21 07:00:04FORECAST2025122-16243.4327.64435.537119.363824051730.2641733710.2641733710.080.344173371FF11.4369.4330373.808247150744.619181841980.87867729524423165112127DRYL
2025-01-21 03:00:04FORECAST2025122-16242.72825.71834.223117.960726997690.1055118680.1055118680.070.175511868FF10.72873.72830373.0081892529544.0003171803680.8620406331027165112127DRYL
2025-01-20 23:00:03FORECAST2025122-16229.51627.73428.625118.240314408950.0090551230.0090551230.070.079055123FF-2.48436.51630373.1678399328444.1234827209690.34703734865032162111122DRYL
2025-01-20 19:00:03FORECAST2025122-16231.58626.97829.282117.778148048280.0051181130.0051181130.080.085118113FF-0.41443.58630372.9038713693243.9199273699150.43603148916961162111122DRYL
2025-01-20 15:00:03FORECAST2025122-16227.24825.32226.285121.686429451380.0279527710.3879527710.120.507952771FF-4.75222.24830375.1263661171945.6477880858730.25853764167529162112124DRYL
2025-01-20 11:00:03FORECAST2025122-16229.53427.91428.724119.4024233671500.010.20.21FF-2.46620.53430373.8302165358844.6362337822520.34778350831664162111122DRYL
2025-01-20 07:00:04FORECAST2025122-16228.07625.9727.023120.409112989300.010.30.31FF-3.92417.07630374.4024292157445.0814644029040.28947021690908162111122DRYL
2025-01-20 03:00:04FORECAST2025122-16226.9626.3326.645123.0487296199100.190.520.71FF-5.0418.9630375.8958847686646.2535110901370.24819381047106161112123DRYL