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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 3, 2025

[ Thursday, January 2, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, January 4, 2025 ]

DAY 95 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/04/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.57°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.70°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.64°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.553
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 56

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.74 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.39 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 13.07 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 14.46 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 123 in
SWE DAY: 3
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 351.58 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 43.07 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -189

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-04 07:00:02OBSERVATION202595-18932.5700626.7000829.63507122.516159166670.740000000000011.3913.0714.46TT0.5700655.570063351.57577702575 43.0737138572310.5528015568462516 31141210WETL
2025-01-04 03:00:02OBSERVATION202595-18932.5700626.7000829.63507122.516159166670.740000000000011.3913.0714.46TT0.5700655.570063351.57577702575 43.0737138572310.5528015568462516 31141210WETL
2025-01-03 11:00:01FORECAST202595-18929.28222.71225.997126.169106532570.8988193831.54881938313.0714.618819383TT-2.71852.2823353.8507226096944.6450295175690.386793445107111621151210WETL
2025-01-03 07:00:03FORECAST202595-18929.53423.25226.393126.027508680380.9200792371.57007923713.0714.640079237TT-2.46652.5343353.7629324154744.5838610357870.399182343167521621151210WETL
2025-01-03 03:00:03FORECAST202595-18928.88624.02626.456126.451158227731.0307092181.68070921813.0714.750709218TT-3.11451.8863354.0254996575544.7669344738490.367560505953291621151210WETL
2025-01-02 23:00:02FORECAST202595-18929.69623.28826.492127.486280312140.9574808321.67748083213.0714.747480832TT-2.30449.6963354.6658547726745.2150305786950.407201452436091621151210WETL
2025-01-02 19:00:02FORECAST202595-18929.67823.57626.627127.585192496250.996063531.7160635313.0714.78606353TT-2.32249.6783354.7269565010545.2579070287970.406308450891141621151210WETL
2025-01-02 15:00:01FORECAST202595-18929.55225.0727.311127.340749971890.925197351.6451973513.0714.71519735TT-2.44849.5523354.5759273652945.1519645126750.400071324526291621151210WETL
2025-01-02 11:00:02FORECAST202595-18929.58824.78227.185128.308684795890.8685044061.58850440613.0714.658504406TT-2.41249.5883355.1734180649145.5718341463690.401850836871511621151210WETL
2025-01-02 07:00:03FORECAST202595-18929.325.50227.401128.564907200210.8905516621.59055166213.0714.660551662TT-2.749.33355.3313343235745.6831400226360.387674715945731621151210WETL
2025-01-02 03:00:03FORECAST202595-18928.27424.11626.195128.965536591220.8633862931.63338629313.0714.703386293TT-3.72647.2743355.5780463228845.8573135440880.338494130345951621151210WETL
2025-01-01 23:00:02FORECAST202595-18929.85825.3427.599128.715192336240.9476383071.74763830713.0714.817638307TT-2.14242.8583355.4239109939545.7484570644840.415259641294271621151210WETL
2025-01-01 19:00:01FORECAST202595-18930.05624.51227.284129.391172012371.0507879691.95078796913.0715.020787969TT-1.94443.0563355.8398824093446.0425394336890.425156820060551621151210WETL
2025-01-01 15:00:03FORECAST202595-18930.34426.61828.481128.495471779630.881890241.7318902413.0714.80189024TT-1.65643.3443355.2885496932145.6529698107280.43963564919831621151210WETL
2025-01-01 11:00:01FORECAST202595-18930.81226.52828.67130.723306956611.2039376581.99393765813.0715.063937658TT-1.18843.8123356.6575384322446.6234528748650.463328325733791621151210WETL
2025-01-01 07:00:03FORECAST202595-18930.48826.58228.535128.638272742431.2346463362.06464633613.0715.134646336TT-1.51243.4883355.3765324136245.7150233028840.446906717298371621151210WETL
2025-01-01 03:00:03FORECAST202595-18930.95627.75229.354130.150113414121.1649612592.05496125913.0715.124961259TT-1.04443.9563356.3060549321746.373273459560.470648621221971621151210WETL
2024-12-31 23:00:02FORECAST202595-18931.71226.40229.057131.795748741860.9633863471.85338634713.114.953386347TT-0.28839.7123357.3137891924647.0924383824120.50918548274141631151212.5WETL
2024-12-31 19:00:01FORECAST202595-18931.4625.59228.526131.676406512360.9496068121.80960681213.114.909606812TT-0.5438.463357.2408494171847.0401913106760.49633161179481621151210WETL
2024-12-31 15:00:02FORECAST202595-18932.03626.65429.345131.846544848450.9917328191.86173281913.114.961732819TT0.03600000000000140.0363357.344828130847.114680908510.525696016860271631151212.5WETL
2024-12-31 11:00:02FORECAST202595-18931.33425.44828.391132.510921076160.8562996752.01629967513.115.116299675TT-0.66639.3343357.7504264174447.4058385199640.489905270388791621151210WETL
2024-12-31 07:00:03FORECAST202595-18931.20824.90828.058133.28919513210.913386322.0833863213.1115.19338632TT-0.79238.2083358.2246890419747.7474804788510.483481548484051621151210WETL
2024-12-31 03:00:03FORECAST202595-18930.57824.67427.626134.912816470051.1622053522.35220535213.1415.492205352TT-1.42235.5783359.2110742691248.4621777368780.451460373903541621151210WETL
2024-12-30 23:00:02FORECAST202595-18929.22826.40227.815130.744956861221.3421267092.45212670913.0115.462126709TT-2.77229.2283356.6708041732446.6329089052850.384153148552121621151210WETL
2024-12-30 19:00:02FORECAST202595-18929.49826.628.049130.536443362511.425197622.4251976213.0315.45519762TT-2.50230.4983356.5430094938746.5418563650940.397405952084881621151210WETL
2024-12-30 15:00:02FORECAST202595-18930.70426.72628.715131.964204602191.4035440652.71354406513.0515.763544065TT-1.29628.7043357.416708691547.1662116740050.457846104701921621151210WETL
2024-12-30 11:00:03FORECAST202595-18931.04627.12229.084133.143225998991.4358275472.69582754713.0515.745827547TT-0.95428.0463358.1358101652347.6833571111620.475229006260061621151210WETL
2024-12-30 07:00:03FORECAST202595-18931.24426.90629.075132.493655796111.4051188692.49511886913.0415.535118869TT-0.75631.2443357.7398947124247.3982664745630.485316533146831621151210WETL
2024-12-30 03:00:04FORECAST202595-18932.12628.23830.182131.46528630681.3677172742.26771727413.0715.337717274TT0.12633.1263357.1117624654146.9478000960430.530275667193141631151212.5WETL
2024-12-29 23:00:02FORECAST202595-18932.61226.88829.75133.086102550271.6657489313.01574893113.0916.105748931TT0.61232.6123358.1010194015347.6582689914280.554921421894511631151212.5WETL
2024-12-29 19:00:02FORECAST202595-18932.61226.63629.624136.052553146261.6948828053.61488280513.0916.704882805TT0.61232.6123359.9010630602848.9654585094040.554921421894511631151212.5WETL
2024-12-29 15:00:02FORECAST202595-18933.33226.47429.903135.804485240981.6665363333.58653633313.0816.666536333TT1.33233.3323359.7510544653348.8558067665620.591019557169631631151212.5WETL
2024-12-29 11:00:02FORECAST202595-18932.59426.65429.624140.343818093181.7326781013.88267810113.217.082678101TT0.59433.5943362.4811203441350.871984415790.554011797308341631151212.5WETL
2024-12-29 07:00:04FORECAST202595-18932.7227.26629.993140.676761824761.5251976743.79519767413.3617.155197674TT0.7237.723362.6801245359351.0206654979150.560372933903981631151212.5WETL
2024-12-29 03:00:04FORECAST202595-18933.18826.8730.029141.679911941211.5090559333.84905593313.4517.299055933TT1.18837.1883363.2787021712751.4692945337420.583851224374171631151212.5WETL
2024-12-28 23:00:02FORECAST202595-18935.58227.39231.487135.174793803281.7744104072.90441040714.0416.944410407TT3.58241.5823359.3698504007848.5777454270410.69772619659751631151212.5WETL
2024-12-28 19:00:02FORECAST202595-18935.67227.60831.64133.324636542121.4283472282.59834722813.9416.538347228TT3.67239.6723358.2462639255147.7630529304410.701729277479751641151215WETL
2024-12-28 15:00:02FORECAST202595-18935.63627.26631.451133.717420836161.4110243842.57102438413.9716.541024384TT3.63638.6363358.4852405433247.9357217732810.700130938705841641151215WETL
2024-12-28 11:00:03FORECAST202595-18934.41228.29231.352138.182738104291.200788052.6207880513.8816.50078805TT2.41234.4123361.1853192430949.9095763760830.643661822412591631151212.5WETL
2024-12-28 07:00:04FORECAST202595-18934.32228.3131.316137.121344655191.0397643412.35976434113.9316.289764341TT2.32234.3223360.5462898127349.4385920695610.639362758349971631151212.5WETL
2024-12-28 03:00:04FORECAST202595-18935.31228.00431.658138.525947816131.4492133813.24921338113.8717.119213381TT3.31241.3123361.3915859777650.0621119803460.68557509148481631151212.5WETL
2024-12-27 23:00:02FORECAST202595-18935.56427.57231.568135.953841257341.551181944.0111819413.8617.87118194TT3.56440.5643359.8413825342548.9218181988840.696922699166451631151212.5WETL
2024-12-27 19:00:03FORECAST202595-18936.87827.08631.982135.076256003021.8429143814.31291438113.7418.052914381TT4.87844.8783359.3101421689848.5342687480980.752887680917241641151215WETL
2024-12-27 15:00:03FORECAST202595-18936.64425.95231.298134.405258053771.0311029193.85110291913.7617.611102919TT4.64441.6443358.9031584537448.2384716282870.743340793829231641151215WETL
2024-12-27 11:00:02FORECAST202595-18938.31827.93233.125139.346920218831.2700794263.80007942613.517.300079426TT6.31843.3183361.8842560017850.4274565495310.807244671288271641151215WETL
2024-12-27 07:00:04FORECAST202595-18937.63427.82432.729140.009824347871.3925204373.77252043713.8217.592520437TT5.63442.6343362.2813193854750.7229438916740.782391285393541641151215WETL
2024-12-27 03:00:06FORECAST202595-18935.6927.82431.757145.57720271711.3669298723.87692987213.9217.796929872TT3.6935.693365.5897884865653.2215387498090.702526990907121641151215WETL
2024-12-26 23:00:03FORECAST202595-18934.75427.2330.992120.655214401310.5429136793.27291367914.1117.382913679TT2.75435.7543350.4086956545442.2786363022830.659828422838241631151212.5WETL
2024-12-26 19:00:06FORECAST202595-18934.48427.39230.938120.516762244490.7547248173.55472481713.8417.394724817TT2.48436.4843350.3216454586342.2196304548370.647088013520281631151212.5WETL
2024-12-26 15:00:02FORECAST202595-18938.73233.76436.248111.828594565960.5712601513.00126015113.8516.851260151TT6.73243.7323344.7973691979738.5582052074480.821409657358151641151215WETL
2024-12-26 11:00:02FORECAST202595-18940.132.97236.536126.082749236571.2110242764.71102427614.3419.051024276TT8.147.13353.797185131644.6077217735510.86341831601251651151217.5WETL
2024-12-26 07:00:04FORECAST202595-18937.56231.26234.412128.879649000781.1637801564.73378015614.4619.193780156TT5.56240.5623355.5251769365145.8199600145170.779671913437531641151215WETL
2024-12-26 03:00:04FORECAST202595-18936.62626.45631.541135.433079150651.2511817784.68118177815.1719.851181778TT4.62640.6263359.5262855410148.6917518864170.742598555239721641151215WETL
2024-12-25 23:00:02FORECAST202595-18934.95226.67230.812139.302938767020.6681105974.26811059716.1720.438110597TT2.95235.9523361.8578885287450.4078672880810.66905781126261631151212.5WETL
2024-12-25 19:00:02FORECAST202595-18935.85227.62631.739137.489957647250.665354693.8453546916.0719.91535469TT3.85238.8523360.7684146309949.6020340480790.709662192238671641151215WETL
2024-12-25 15:00:03FORECAST202595-18935.90627.21231.559142.49025070550.9996068394.05960683915.4619.519606839TT3.90635.9063363.7611172736951.8324127972410.712022674700031641151215WETL
2024-12-25 11:00:03FORECAST202595-18937.1327.53632.333149.849682987061.6094496883.86944968816.0919.959449688TT5.1340.133368.0972120928455.1592505405320.762952957319991641151215WETL
2024-12-25 07:00:04FORECAST202595-18936.7728.3132.54151.645631461531.5618118673.51181186716.0719.581811867TT4.7738.773369.1431181940155.9789412582110.748505134886571641151215WETL
2024-12-25 03:00:04FORECAST202595-18936.7728.3132.54151.329647185571.5464575283.46645752815.9319.396457528TT4.7740.773368.9594442082255.8345025178140.748505134886571641151215WETL
2024-12-24 23:00:03FORECAST202595-18934.64625.80830.227149.770183998430.0291338742.42913387416.0418.469133874TT2.64629.6463368.0508039208355.1230366239950.654753132834511631151212.5WETL
2024-12-24 19:00:03FORECAST202595-18934.66429.9332.297150.512022668740.3539371992.89393719915.7618.653937199TT2.66429.6643368.4834941360255.4611960224560.655600978758541631151212.5WETL
2024-12-24 15:00:03FORECAST202595-18934.0728.25631.163154.068070645690.4807089213.53070892115.5619.090708921TT2.0725.073370.5463368386157.0893592015530.627232934769261631151212.5WETL
2024-12-24 11:00:03FORECAST202595-18928.8519.63424.242134.611708882360.1665355231.72653552313.9715.696535523TT-3.1515.853359.0284519835948.3294334588980.365827596337651621151210WETL
2024-12-24 07:00:04FORECAST202595-18926.92425.28626.105135.999108403660.0173228441.70732284414.3216.027322844TT-5.07613.9243359.8687525957848.9418294953640.277861870854471621151210WETL
2024-12-24 03:00:05FORECAST202595-18927.53625.55626.546134.425636562020.0031496081.61314960813.7515.363149608TT-4.46411.5363358.9155289473148.2474484507360.304694772741381621151210WETL