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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 29, 2025

[ Tuesday, January 28, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, January 30, 2025 ]

DAY 121 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/30/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.29°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.69°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.99°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.835
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 123

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.08 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.08 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 112 in
SWE DAY: 29
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 368.77 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 41.34 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -163

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-30 07:00:02OBSERVATION2025121-16344.2900431.6900437.99004112.10771541667000.080.08FF12.29004123.2900429368.77078665153 41.342050403910.8347572332086316 4111123DRYL
2025-01-30 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025121-16344.2900431.6900437.99004112.10771541667000.080.08FF12.29004123.2900429368.77078665153 41.342050403910.8347572332086316 4111123DRYL
2025-01-29 11:00:01FORECAST2025121-16338.8429.26434.052112.8133352000.080.08FF6.84117.8429369.1810812504141.6485490686010.68942417601946163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-29 07:00:03FORECAST2025121-16338.44429.42633.935112.75939818333000.080.08FF6.444117.44429369.1497446069241.6251030414080.67703692745706163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-29 03:00:03FORECAST2025121-16338.13828.52633.332112.76500698333000.080.08FF6.138117.13829369.1530034403741.6275410108710.6673277601279163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-28 23:00:01FORECAST2025121-16338.71428.5833.647113.8096944000.080.08FF6.714108.71429369.7591803742342.0821793199860.68550512530936163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-28 19:00:02FORECAST2025121-16338.71428.23833.476113.8153032000.080.08FF6.714108.71429369.762430525542.0846231422290.68550512530936163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-28 15:00:02FORECAST2025121-16339.39828.18433.791113.7988704000.080.08FF7.398109.39829369.7529080215842.0774632599710.70651832836639164111123DRYL
2025-01-28 11:00:02FORECAST2025121-16339.57828.18433.881113.3114952000.080.08FF7.578109.57829369.4703023183741.865232387690.71193821709614164111123DRYL
2025-01-28 07:00:03FORECAST2025121-16339.61428.25633.935113.3865672000.080.08FF7.614110.61429369.5138557984241.8979076418180.71301650588963164111123DRYL
2025-01-28 03:00:03FORECAST2025121-16339.75828.02233.89113.3932584000.080.08FF7.758109.75829369.5177373359541.9008202731180.71731045162804164111123DRYL
2025-01-27 23:00:02FORECAST2025121-16339.52428.97634.25114.2799088000.080.08FF7.52497.52429370.0314964727242.287165670030.71031721196754164111123DRYL
2025-01-27 19:00:01FORECAST2025121-16339.14628.97634.061114.2879776000.080.08FF7.14697.14629370.0361665333342.2906851119510.6988522228309163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-27 15:00:02FORECAST2025121-16338.17427.66232.918114.3424912000.080.08FF6.17496.17429370.0677154108742.3144644927720.66847601531502163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-27 11:00:02FORECAST2025121-16339.30829.55234.43114.0236752000.080.08FF7.30897.30829369.8831437813742.1754354484820.70379080650634164111123DRYL
2025-01-27 07:00:03FORECAST2025121-16339.54229.7534.646114.01517346667000.080.08FF7.54299.54229369.878219840442.1717293966450.71085802203219164111123DRYL
2025-01-27 03:00:04FORECAST2025121-16339.95630.21835.087113.93379666667000.080.08FF7.95699.95629369.8310835347942.1362594724660.72316378511461164111123DRYL
2025-01-26 23:00:02FORECAST2025121-16339.3829.87634.628113.9563696000.080.08FF7.3888.3829369.8441595484242.1460977399010.70597375446651164111123DRYL
2025-01-26 19:00:02FORECAST2025121-16339.3829.71434.547113.973196000.080.08FF7.3888.3829369.8539062314742.1534317462850.70597375446651164111123DRYL
2025-01-26 15:00:01FORECAST2025121-16338.91229.94834.43113.9593216000.080.08FF6.91287.91229369.8458695229542.1473843873970.69165406501952163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-26 11:00:02FORECAST2025121-16339.59630.07434.835113.8616104000.080.08FF7.59688.59629369.789262554142.1048009430380.71247760023884164111123DRYL
2025-01-26 07:00:04FORECAST2025121-16339.90230.05634.979114.24009371667000.080.08FF7.90289.90229370.0084508946542.2698001061640.72157331631103164111123DRYL
2025-01-26 03:00:04FORECAST2025121-16339.95631.06435.51114.19384571667000.080.08FF7.95689.95629369.9816789201942.2496307606060.72316378511461164111123DRYL
2025-01-25 23:00:02FORECAST2025121-16341.61232.55837.085114.5393504000.080.08FF9.61285.61229370.1816081724842.4003609301040.76967261702175164111123DRYL
2025-01-25 19:00:02FORECAST2025121-16341.1832.12636.653114.7282784000.080.08FF9.1883.1829370.2908588029942.4828327377250.75797693337337164111123DRYL
2025-01-25 15:00:02FORECAST2025121-16341.39632.21636.806114.709976000.080.08FF9.39681.39629370.2802774414342.474841738580.76386459722262164111123DRYL
2025-01-25 11:00:02FORECAST2025121-16343.93432.84638.39114.3563264000.080.08FF11.93486.93429370.0757216174742.3205000140030.82686231521021164111123DRYL
2025-01-25 07:00:03FORECAST2025121-16343.75432.7238.237114.7520261000.080.08FF11.75488.75429370.3045875806842.4932016990080.82278123657823164111123DRYL
2025-01-25 03:00:03FORECAST2025121-16342.90833.45838.183114.7725917000.080.08FF10.90887.90829370.3164760861542.5021817096190.80279835378925164111123DRYL
2025-01-24 23:00:02FORECAST2025121-16341.82831.9136.869115.5930768000.080.08FF9.82881.82829370.7902735916142.8607885719680.77540001372768164111123DRYL
2025-01-24 19:00:02FORECAST2025121-16342.78232.23437.508115.4144808000.080.08FF10.78283.78229370.6872255630542.7826736775520.79970993795624164111123DRYL
2025-01-24 15:00:02FORECAST2025121-16342.20632.41437.31115.3769904000.080.08FF10.20685.20629370.6655880564342.7662799947980.78522626770663164111123DRYL
2025-01-24 11:00:02FORECAST2025121-16342.06231.11836.59115.7245392000.080.08FF10.06281.06229370.8660961616142.9183080832050.78151266121044164111123DRYL
2025-01-24 07:00:04FORECAST2025121-16341.75631.7336.743115.7355523000.080.08FF9.75683.75629370.8724469543842.9231274811180.77349989712349164111123DRYL
2025-01-24 03:00:03FORECAST2025121-16341.8283236.914115.6034011000.080.08FF9.82884.82829370.7962291758542.8653052077830.77540001372768164111123DRYL
2025-01-23 23:00:02FORECAST2025121-16339.3832.14435.762116.6933464000.080.08FF7.3877.3829371.4240876205743.3427197180110.70597375446651164111123DRYL
2025-01-23 19:00:02FORECAST2025121-16339.2932.14435.717116.686852000.080.08FF7.2978.2929371.4203516938443.3398716078870.7032439112582164111123DRYL
2025-01-23 15:00:02FORECAST2025121-16337.72431.22634.475116.8473424000.080.08FF5.72474.72429371.5126563145243.4102665583160.65401229985769163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-23 11:00:03FORECAST2025121-16336.53630.8333.683116.968768000.080.08FF4.53672.53629371.582468164643.4635435116130.614783928454163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-23 07:00:04FORECAST2025121-16336.73430.72233.728116.57868635000.080.08FF4.73474.73429371.3581199567743.2924417899660.62141679266055163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-23 03:00:05FORECAST2025121-16338.58831.94635.267116.48353355000.080.08FF6.58877.58829371.3033608604543.2507274920160.6815650760725163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-22 23:00:02FORECAST2025121-16339.57829.13834.358116.919076000.080.08FF7.57862.57829371.5539010879943.4417387994040.71193821709614164111123DRYL
2025-01-22 19:00:04FORECAST2025121-16339.52428.81434.169116.9355088000.080.08FF7.52460.52429371.5633484212743.4489491990730.71031721196754164111123DRYL
2025-01-22 15:00:02FORECAST2025121-16340.02828.86834.448116.6255488000.080.08FF8.02865.02829371.3850837730943.3129892111710.7252774722719164111123DRYL
2025-01-22 11:00:02FORECAST2025121-16337.2227.84232.531117.02584000.080.08FF5.2258.2229371.6152734279843.4885895297390.63754300031177163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-22 07:00:04FORECAST2025121-16338.62428.7633.692116.69491936667000.080.08FF6.62462.62429371.4249924659843.3434095465820.68269292558557163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-22 03:00:04FORECAST2025121-16338.6628.38233.521116.78406976667000.080.08FF6.6659.6629371.4762701173343.3825106460430.68381908250995163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 23:00:03FORECAST2025121-16335.8728.86832.369117.7661624000.080.08FF3.8759.8729372.0403836857643.8137682444950.5922365381088163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 19:00:02FORECAST2025121-16335.38428.52631.955117.96188000.080.08FF3.38455.38429372.1526357251143.899824557090.57558335645948163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 15:00:02FORECAST2025121-16335.58227.8631.721118.261523199180.0641732630.0641732630.080.144173263FF3.58254.58229372.3243852606744.0316489251230.582386065679163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 11:00:03FORECAST2025121-16337.9429.22833.584117.93022994546000.080.08FF5.9453.9429372.1344869079943.8859056116950.66098452972813163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 07:00:04FORECAST2025121-16338.58830.36234.475117.6612060909000.090.09FF6.58857.58829371.9801639642343.7676347339210.6815650760725163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 03:00:04FORECAST2025121-16339.99231.78435.888117.39683726667000.080.08FF7.99262.99229371.8284085682843.6514791718140.72422162267219164111123DRYL
2025-01-20 23:00:03FORECAST2025121-16335.90629.60632.756118.15608534151000.080.08FF3.90638.90629372.2639652781443.9852528509710.59346389377129163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 19:00:03FORECAST2025121-16338.55231.04634.799117.73283841332000.090.09FF6.55243.55229372.0212654578343.7991195324670.68043554270181163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 15:00:02FORECAST2025121-16333.38626.88830.137121.401221209230.3559057040.3559057040.130.485905704FF1.38627.38629374.1161590603545.4181585840340.50601778747026163112125DRYL
2025-01-20 11:00:03FORECAST2025121-16339.12826.85232.99119.402423367150.0082677210.0082677210.210.218267721FF7.12823.12829372.9771315237444.5343733644640.69830121079734163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 07:00:04FORECAST2025121-16335.1525.26830.209120.40911298930.0074803190.0074803190.310.317480319FF3.1521.1529373.5515227483944.9790075099340.56751482526983163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 03:00:04FORECAST2025121-16337.29223.61230.452123.048729619910.1937008920.1937008920.530.723700892FF5.29224.29229375.0506642288446.1495077764640.63991224394876163112125DRYL
2025-01-19 23:00:03FORECAST2025121-16334.12427.17630.65120.88417210588000.440.44FF2.12424.12429373.8220696129645.1891714000680.53184856076287163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-19 19:00:03FORECAST2025121-16334.55629.58832.072120.64929268066000.40.4FF2.55624.55629373.6883462371145.0852346565130.54691397976176163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-19 15:00:03FORECAST2025121-16332.77429.42631.1120.85307407777000.370.37FF0.77416.77429373.8043692241845.1754071244430.48457329384408162111122DRYL
2025-01-19 11:00:03FORECAST2025121-16329.76828.09428.931120.0992172639000.230.23FF-2.23221.76829373.3748606584444.8420285110980.38103896168183162111122DRYL
2025-01-19 07:00:04FORECAST2025121-16328.70625.5227.113120.7517396828000.250.25FF-3.29417.70629373.7466819687645.1305620484030.34603399014165162111122DRYL
2025-01-19 03:00:04FORECAST2025121-16328.72428.3128.517121.18964318429000.290.29FF-3.2767.72429373.995863471945.3244252465590.34661744095803162111122DRYL