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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 28, 2025

[ Monday, January 27, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, January 29, 2025 ]

DAY 120 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/29/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.80°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.52°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.66°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.946
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 105

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.73 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.73 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 113 in
SWE DAY: 28
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 368.38 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 41.60 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -164

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-29 07:00:03OBSERVATION2025120-16450.7999238.5199644.65994112.93120458333000.730.73FF18.79992104.7999228368.37902208243 41.6014867069990.9456736270447316 5111123.5DRYL
2025-01-29 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025120-16450.7999238.5199644.65994112.93120458333000.730.73FF18.79992104.7999228368.37902208243 41.6014867069990.9456736270447316 5111123.5DRYL
2025-01-28 11:00:02FORECAST2025120-16441.61231.26236.437113.5326984000.730.73FF9.61295.61228368.7294151904741.8628454860280.77035266318596164111123DRYL
2025-01-28 07:00:02FORECAST2025120-16442.9831.24437.112113.610624000.730.73FF10.9896.9828368.7747706702141.89673181130.80745292074543164111123DRYL
2025-01-28 03:00:03FORECAST2025120-16442.42231.53236.977113.6158392000.730.73FF10.42296.42228368.7778057822141.898999882280.79278270778608164111123DRYL
2025-01-27 23:00:02FORECAST2025120-16443.12432.07237.598114.485368000.730.73FF11.12484.12428369.2832873729642.2775330511430.81113338427878164111123DRYL
2025-01-27 19:00:01FORECAST2025120-16442.94431.67637.31114.4823176000.730.73FF10.94483.94428369.2815160401542.2762038031180.80652601455753164111123DRYL
2025-01-27 15:00:01FORECAST2025120-16442.72831.94637.337114.495208000.730.73FF10.72883.72828369.2890012562242.2818210109430.8009077443141164111123DRYL
2025-01-27 11:00:02FORECAST2025120-16442.67431.6437.157114.2252968000.730.73FF10.67483.67428369.1322176596842.1642371206190.79948799958665164111123DRYL
2025-01-27 07:00:03FORECAST2025120-16442.99832.59437.796114.25517106667000.730.73FF10.99885.99828369.1495760462142.1772479603470.80791535640405164111123DRYL
2025-01-27 03:00:03FORECAST2025120-16443.01632.37837.697114.21187506667000.730.73FF11.01686.01628369.124418557942.1583919763910.8083771133408164111123DRYL
2025-01-26 23:00:01FORECAST2025120-16442.63831.74837.193114.1895776000.730.73FF10.63874.63828369.111461356642.1486818596290.79853814120585164111123DRYL
2025-01-26 19:00:01FORECAST2025120-16442.63831.65837.148114.2112256000.730.73FF10.63874.63828369.1240411590242.1581091391970.79853814120585164111123DRYL
2025-01-26 15:00:01FORECAST2025120-16442.58432.10837.346114.1984336000.730.73FF10.58474.58428369.1166077230142.1525384177140.79710831885826164111123DRYL
2025-01-26 11:00:02FORECAST2025120-16442.63832.16237.4114.1673392000.730.73FF10.63874.63828369.0985377483742.1389979573420.79853814120585164111123DRYL
2025-01-26 07:00:03FORECAST2025120-16442.49432.23437.364114.55536731667000.730.73FF10.49476.49428369.3239314143342.3080386220040.79471188338584164111123DRYL
2025-01-26 03:00:03FORECAST2025120-16442.38632.86437.625114.50370731667000.730.73FF10.38676.38628369.2939365176242.2855248208330.79181412078005164111123DRYL
2025-01-25 23:00:02FORECAST2025120-16442.54833.63838.093114.9980912000.730.73FF10.54869.54828369.5808250016442.5010894193090.79615175227643164111123DRYL
2025-01-25 19:00:02FORECAST2025120-16441.70232.46837.085115.1543504000.730.73FF9.70267.70228369.6714265285942.5692729833410.77291000716234164111123DRYL
2025-01-25 15:00:01FORECAST2025120-16441.4532.48636.968115.1845592000.730.73FF9.4566.4528369.6889379155342.5824573549160.76570911852498164111123DRYL
2025-01-25 11:00:02FORECAST2025120-16442.00832.6337.319115.0355816000.730.73FF10.00869.00828369.6025658005642.517446117720.78148404110985164111123DRYL
2025-01-25 07:00:03FORECAST2025120-16442.0831.94637.013115.4017613000.730.73FF10.0871.0828369.8148057138242.6772799341920.78347407968285164111123DRYL
2025-01-25 03:00:03FORECAST2025120-16442.45832.0937.274115.3944797000.730.73FF10.45871.45828369.8105871789342.6741002950640.7937486298714164111123DRYL
2025-01-24 23:00:02FORECAST2025120-16442.36832.28837.328116.074548000.730.73FF10.36866.36828370.2042426892342.9712901378350.79132882909181164111123DRYL
2025-01-24 19:00:02FORECAST2025120-16443.10632.66637.886115.9595184000.730.73FF11.10667.10628370.1377059197242.9209901201320.81067570620669164111123DRYL
2025-01-24 15:00:01FORECAST2025120-16443.6133.0838.345115.9068744000.730.73FF11.6168.6128370.1072484751942.8979743635440.82323247106081164111123DRYL
2025-01-24 11:00:02FORECAST2025120-16441.68431.47836.581116.1373272000.730.73FF9.68464.68428370.2405479705742.9987476623650.77239982427455164111123DRYL
2025-01-24 07:00:04FORECAST2025120-16441.6331.83836.734116.1847483000.730.73FF9.6367.6328370.2679678077543.0194906432960.77086541658818164111123DRYL
2025-01-24 03:00:03FORECAST2025120-16442.27832.32437.301116.0747371000.730.73FF10.27869.27828370.2043520546742.9713728380210.78889240780205164111123DRYL
2025-01-23 23:00:02FORECAST2025120-16441.61232.32436.968117.0764176000.730.73FF9.61263.61228370.7829345657643.4099376861740.77035266318596164111123DRYL
2025-01-23 19:00:02FORECAST2025120-16441.66632.19836.932117.0587056000.730.73FF9.66664.66628370.7727166843643.4021742868670.77188899778498164111123DRYL
2025-01-23 15:00:02FORECAST2025120-16441.43231.85636.644117.1028872000.730.73FF9.43263.43228370.7982037650643.4215402294620.76518998561031164111123DRYL
2025-01-23 11:00:02FORECAST2025120-16442.00831.62236.815117.1359496000.730.73FF10.00862.00828370.8172746315643.4360335920520.78148404110985164111123DRYL
2025-01-23 07:00:04FORECAST2025120-16442.20631.78436.995116.76672875000.730.73FF10.20664.20628370.6042118005143.2742414729170.78693134465628164111123DRYL
2025-01-23 03:00:05FORECAST2025120-16441.25232.0936.671116.79949595000.730.73FF9.25265.25228370.6231285435343.2885946012960.75996389643337164111123DRYL
2025-01-22 23:00:02FORECAST2025120-16440.74831.94636.347117.1779664000.730.73FF8.74848.74828370.8415082136243.4544537891810.74499987054855164111123DRYL
2025-01-22 19:00:03FORECAST2025120-16440.5532.05436.302117.181312000.730.73FF8.5546.5528370.8434377085243.4559205772750.73899055186833164111123DRYL
2025-01-22 15:00:02FORECAST2025120-16441.55832.10836.833116.921536000.730.73FF9.55850.55828370.6935693024143.342061508160.7688105596883164111123DRYL
2025-01-22 11:00:02FORECAST2025120-16439.70430.3835.042117.2273632000.730.73FF7.70446.70428370.8699949722843.4761116005980.71252050707105164111123DRYL
2025-01-22 07:00:04FORECAST2025120-16440.78431.04635.915116.97398176667000.730.73FF8.78449.78428370.723833965843.3650429947840.74608465542967164111123DRYL
2025-01-22 03:00:03FORECAST2025120-16440.67630.95635.816117.07641616667000.730.73FF8.67646.67628370.782933738943.4099370579130.74282305877347164111123DRYL
2025-01-21 23:00:02FORECAST2025120-16440.85631.89236.374117.8892608000.730.73FF8.85649.85628371.2513616650743.7665485976890.74824694832819164111123DRYL
2025-01-21 19:00:02FORECAST2025120-16440.06430.90235.483118.0667744000.730.73FF8.06446.06428371.35353099843.8445135669840.72393821905447164111123DRYL
2025-01-21 15:00:02FORECAST2025120-16440.47832.05436.266117.950072000.730.73FF8.47845.47828371.2863672117343.7932537452420.73678745572096164111123DRYL
2025-01-21 11:00:03FORECAST2025120-16439.39831.71235.555118.16176514546000.730.73FF7.39842.39828371.4081847420543.8862466985920.70264343183753164111123DRYL
2025-01-21 07:00:04FORECAST2025120-16439.86632.10835.987117.9371196909000.740.74FF7.86644.86628371.2789117577643.7875654546810.71768603000055164111123DRYL
2025-01-21 03:00:04FORECAST2025120-16440.6432.30636.473117.79092926667000.730.73FF8.6448.6428371.1947463565243.723374112240.74173104603223164111123DRYL
2025-01-20 23:00:03FORECAST2025120-16439.09230.77634.934118.32277494151000.730.73FF7.09229.09228371.5007930024943.9570047210250.69261431141982163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 19:00:02FORECAST2025120-16440.8232.6336.725118.09298241332000.740.74FF8.8230.8228371.3686113215743.8560268856590.74716701698932164111123DRYL
2025-01-20 15:00:02FORECAST2025120-16436.5928.88632.738118.85168509737000.780.78FF4.5919.5928371.8047406835344.1896199574290.60574960985774163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 11:00:03FORECAST2025120-16435.38428.16631.775119.42863395199000.860.86FF3.38410.38428372.1358293456144.4436737433380.56158111417588163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 07:00:04FORECAST2025120-16435.20427.87831.541120.37821676213000.960.96FF3.20412.20428372.6797028966844.8625180581430.55490819240175163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 03:00:04FORECAST2025120-16435.6928.86832.279121.45404497291001.181.18FF3.6912.6928373.2943005954245.3381027726480.57288401875978163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-19 23:00:03FORECAST2025120-16441.32432.41436.869120.91654570588001.091.09FF9.32416.32428372.9874486656145.1003538842930.76206189586483164111123DRYL
2025-01-19 19:00:03FORECAST2025120-16440.33432.23436.284120.70114948066001.051.05FF8.33416.33428372.8643638994645.0051573230410.73235298258603164111123DRYL
2025-01-19 15:00:03FORECAST2025120-16438.01230.63234.322120.85937167777001.021.02FF6.01210.01228372.9547840362645.0750808628390.65609428749147163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-19 11:00:03FORECAST2025120-16438.330.07434.187120.0992172639000.880.88FF6.318.328372.5200420021244.7393654595720.6659944458618163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-19 07:00:04FORECAST2025120-16436.98629.1233.053120.7517396828000.90.9FF4.98614.98628372.8932789213845.0275121457810.61998984754689163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-19 03:00:04FORECAST2025120-16438.78626.58232.684121.18964318429000.940.94FF6.7864.78628373.1434091156145.2211166072890.68243919523015163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-18 19:00:03FORECAST2025120-16430.59626.99628.796121.108649788850.0015748040.0015748040.810.811574804FF-1.40418.59628373.0971667086145.1852941001240.38409086136371162111122DRYL
2025-01-18 15:00:02FORECAST2025120-16431.85630.1130.983120.974606240040.003937010.003937010.780.78393701FF-0.14426.85628373.0206149188645.1260220092260.42998867964403162111122DRYL
2025-01-18 11:00:03FORECAST2025120-16418.98616.71817.852122.3987744151400.010.960.97FF-13.014-5.01428373.8326211641345.756654666890.082877695989682161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-18 07:00:04FORECAST2025120-16435.52834.23234.88121.02832153718000.80.8FF3.52833.52828373.0512946618945.1497720402010.56690696949926163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-18 03:00:05FORECAST2025120-16435.635.13235.366121.62735427539000.920.92FF3.631.628373.3931515294845.4148211250790.56956540999673163111122.5DRYL