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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 27, 2025

[ Sunday, January 26, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, January 28, 2025 ]

DAY 119 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/28/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.09°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.49°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.79°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.961
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 97

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.71 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.71 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 114 in
SWE DAY: 27
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 368.18 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 42.01 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -165

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-28 07:00:02OBSERVATION2025119-16552.0899833.4900442.79001114.09426001.711.71FF20.0899897.0899827368.18480210466 42.0077725393770.9606700505648616 5111123.5DRYL
2025-01-28 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025119-16552.0899833.4900442.79001114.09426001.711.71FF20.0899897.0899827368.18480210466 42.0077725393770.9606700505648616 5111123.5DRYL
2025-01-27 11:00:01FORECAST2025119-16539.36227.62633.494114.73924001.711.71FF7.36284.36227368.5608247503442.2883889256270.7038867701131164111123DRYL
2025-01-27 07:00:03FORECAST2025119-16540.6428.77834.709114.79489506667001.711.71FF8.6485.6427368.5932427321242.3126226217160.74480482138643164111123DRYL
2025-01-27 03:00:03FORECAST2025119-16540.8229.8435.33114.75730626667001.711.71FF8.8285.8227368.5713484977342.2962551206720.7503212585728164111123DRYL
2025-01-26 23:00:01FORECAST2025119-16541.12629.6635.393114.664456001.711.71FF9.12675.12627368.5172573243842.2558308377130.75955211326607164111123DRYL
2025-01-26 19:00:01FORECAST2025119-16541.46826.70834.088114.6587488001.711.71FF9.46875.46827368.5139321019842.2533463701810.76964538539862164111123DRYL
2025-01-26 15:00:01FORECAST2025119-16541.30627.89634.601114.6616024001.711.71FF9.30675.30627368.5155947192142.2545885998930.76489409792087164111123DRYL
2025-01-26 11:00:01FORECAST2025119-16541.28828.50834.898114.6488104001.711.71FF9.28875.28827368.5081415134342.249020047230.76436286170743164111123DRYL
2025-01-26 07:00:03FORECAST2025119-16541.19830.03835.618115.03693691667001.711.71FF9.19877.19827368.73417405942.4180499202440.76169679094885164111123DRYL
2025-01-26 03:00:03FORECAST2025119-1654129.64235.321115.02168491667001.711.71FF97727368.725295984642.4114048155450.7557738069193164111123DRYL
2025-01-25 23:00:02FORECAST2025119-16541.46830.79436.131115.5425384001.711.71FF9.46870.46827369.0282862821142.6384649384360.76964538539862164111123DRYL
2025-01-25 19:00:01FORECAST2025119-16540.69430.18235.438115.6048256001.711.71FF8.69468.69427369.0644930945442.6656363593470.74646640762676164111123DRYL
2025-01-25 15:00:01FORECAST2025119-16540.3730.05635.213115.6286384001.711.71FF8.3768.3727369.0783336799342.6760251863520.7364123790016164111123DRYL
2025-01-25 11:00:02FORECAST2025119-16540.76630.59635.681115.612796001.711.71FF8.76669.76627369.0691257803842.6691135487460.7486729952492164111123DRYL
2025-01-25 07:00:03FORECAST2025119-16540.22630.27235.249115.9281029001.711.71FF8.22672.22627369.2523183750742.8067207606490.73187959564005164111123DRYL
2025-01-25 03:00:03FORECAST2025119-16540.29829.9335.114115.9310549001.711.71FF8.29872.29827369.2540327872542.8080095471050.73415087686044164111123DRYL
2025-01-24 23:00:02FORECAST2025119-16541.03630.12835.582116.5929192001.711.71FF9.03667.03627369.6380946785143.0971845060930.75685657320396164111123DRYL
2025-01-24 19:00:01FORECAST2025119-16541.48630.09235.789116.5543464001.711.71FF9.48667.48627369.6157296428343.0803197876790.77016997740392164111123DRYL
2025-01-24 15:00:01FORECAST2025119-16541.48630.16435.825116.5499184001.711.71FF9.48668.48627369.6131620878143.07838388090.77016997740392164111123DRYL
2025-01-24 11:00:02FORECAST2025119-16540.9129.35435.132116.5941001.711.71FF8.9165.9127369.6387792878943.097700796170.75305557387233164111123DRYL
2025-01-24 07:00:04FORECAST2025119-16541.05429.96635.51116.6761579001.711.71FF9.05469.05427369.6863501467143.1335829631920.75739698293731164111123DRYL
2025-01-24 03:00:03FORECAST2025119-16541.32430.30835.816116.6338459001.711.71FF9.32470.32427369.6618221417743.1150799987960.76542467304238164111123DRYL
2025-01-23 23:00:02FORECAST2025119-16540.8229.76835.294117.5510992001.711.71FF8.8264.8227370.1929578187943.5165891076980.7503212585728164111123DRYL
2025-01-23 19:00:02FORECAST2025119-16541.19829.6635.429117.5406688001.711.71FF9.19866.19827370.1869250470343.5120187510430.76169679094885164111123DRYL
2025-01-23 15:00:02FORECAST2025119-16541.05429.91235.483117.5630056001.711.71FF9.05465.05427370.1998440893343.5218063437930.75739698293731164111123DRYL
2025-01-23 11:00:02FORECAST2025119-16540.15429.60634.88117.6085648001.711.71FF8.15463.15427370.2261921106343.54177110550.72959860158534164111123DRYL
2025-01-23 07:00:04FORECAST2025119-16540.08229.53434.808117.26217275001.711.71FF8.08265.08227370.0257883938843.3900279205980.72730796215361164111123DRYL
2025-01-23 03:00:04FORECAST2025119-16539.93828.90434.421117.26768315001.711.71FF7.93866.93827370.0289777938243.3924409242440.7226980230239164111123DRYL
2025-01-22 23:00:02FORECAST2025119-16540.40628.34634.376117.6406432001.711.71FF8.40651.40627370.2447420200643.5558295926580.73753944254845164111123DRYL
2025-01-22 19:00:03FORECAST2025119-16540.3728.36434.367117.6366088001.711.71FF8.3749.3727370.2424091390843.5540614450640.7364123790016164111123DRYL
2025-01-22 15:00:02FORECAST2025119-16541.37830.00235.69117.4788736001.711.71FF9.37852.37827370.1511804413443.4849437399590.76701242435223164111123DRYL
2025-01-22 11:00:02FORECAST2025119-16540.56829.0334.799117.5325016001.711.71FF8.56849.56827370.1822011613343.5084401502860.74258055997672164111123DRYL
2025-01-22 07:00:04FORECAST2025119-16540.83829.51635.177117.35656096667001.711.71FF8.83851.83827370.0804137922743.4313646437820.75086940301074164111123DRYL
2025-01-22 03:00:03FORECAST2025119-16539.68629.22834.457117.44620336667001.711.71FF7.68648.68627370.132280515243.4706310899560.71454016297446164111123DRYL
2025-01-21 23:00:02FORECAST2025119-16540.76629.78635.276118.3322576001.711.71FF8.76651.76627370.6443130767843.8591783329760.7486729952492164111123DRYL
2025-01-21 19:00:02FORECAST2025119-16539.79428.92234.358118.4318384001.711.71FF7.79448.79427370.701786777843.902894106260.71805034198566164111123DRYL
2025-01-21 15:00:02FORECAST2025119-16540.0128.79634.403118.4067464001.711.71FF8.0148.0127370.6873061381443.8918778515980.7250077460102164111123DRYL
2025-01-21 11:00:02FORECAST2025119-16539.95628.77834.367118.53106034546001.711.71FF7.95645.95627370.759038906843.9464620142880.72327634117094164111123DRYL
2025-01-21 07:00:03FORECAST2025119-16539.93828.70634.322118.3390836909001.721.72FF7.93847.93827370.6482532632843.8621746628080.7226980230239164111123DRYL
2025-01-21 03:00:04FORECAST2025119-16540.1930.0235.105118.24819406667001.711.71FF8.1951.1927370.5957839492843.8222821807240.73074030852927164111123DRYL
2025-01-20 23:00:03FORECAST2025119-16537.34626.1531.748118.64090214151001.711.71FF5.34633.34627370.8224019779543.9947043049450.6339006909248163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 19:00:02FORECAST2025119-16538.3926.3332.36118.60790961332001.721.72FF6.3933.3927370.803371845943.9802128122140.67088551932626163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 15:00:02FORECAST2025119-16536.01425.66430.839119.01404509737001.761.76FF4.01426.01427371.0375203306744.1586761774510.58488926067738163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 11:00:03FORECAST2025119-16535.74424.18829.966119.53313475199001.841.84FF3.74417.74427371.3364386215144.387008556070.5747636439267163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 07:00:04FORECAST2025119-16536.26624.87230.569120.47563276213001.941.94FF4.26620.26627371.8781706171544.8022579155250.59428937973163163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 03:00:04FORECAST2025119-16536.3225.2530.785121.57468337291002.162.16FF4.3220.3227372.5082506970745.2875726322940.59629683465023163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-19 23:00:02FORECAST2025119-16539.66829.3934.529121.48008250588002.072.07FF7.66817.66827372.4540856623145.2457530559080.71395311863297164111123DRYL
2025-01-19 19:00:03FORECAST2025119-16539.48829.6634.574121.23221428066002.032.03FF7.48819.48827372.3121035402645.1362207156760.70805138999967164111123DRYL
2025-01-19 15:00:03FORECAST2025119-16538.58828.72433.656121.171102877770022FF6.58814.58827372.2770844006545.1092248929460.6777281474677163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-19 11:00:03FORECAST2025119-16538.7530.50634.628120.3440364639001.861.86FF6.7522.7527371.8026091538744.7442267533880.68328237393018163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-19 07:00:04FORECAST2025119-16538.2129.17433.692120.9226604828001.881.88FF6.2121.2127372.1346615521944.9995133327580.66461482744352163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-19 03:00:04FORECAST2025119-16536.28427.01431.649121.39903838429001.921.92FF4.2849.28427372.4076723774645.2099333135550.59495880968443163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-18 19:00:03FORECAST2025119-16536.87828.432.639121.09250263907001.791.79FF4.87830.87827372.2320355057745.0745087418290.61688309607468163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-18 15:00:02FORECAST2025119-16540.04628.02234.034120.938420034380.0023622060.0023622061.761.762362206FF8.04638.04627372.1436985909745.0064709333440.72615904683222164111123DRYL
2025-01-18 11:00:03FORECAST2025119-16529.51620.6625.088122.3987744151400.031.921.95FF-2.48418.51627372.9795453069645.6522392274890.34128320994409162111122DRYL
2025-01-18 07:00:04FORECAST2025119-16542.40427.80635.105121.15004233718001.781.78FF10.40441.40427372.2650146567845.0999222863210.79602363111459164111123DRYL
2025-01-18 03:00:04FORECAST2025119-16542.11628.88635.501121.66415587539001.91.9FF10.11639.11627372.5594674412645.3271331196250.78810486600265164111123DRYL
2025-01-17 23:00:04FORECAST2025119-16529.85828.09428.976122.837623655480.0492126250.04921262522.049212625FF-2.14222.85827373.230119345.8467009314620.35340142865218162111122DRYL
2025-01-17 19:00:03FORECAST2025119-16526.47421.72224.098123.877112556080.0228346580.0228346582.152.172834658FF-5.52617.47427373.8225331722546.3080560177790.24170693117682161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-17 15:00:03FORECAST2025119-16524.54823.6324.089133.310151696740.2212599620.9612599622.063.021259962FF-7.4525.54827379.1276029078850.5415582560720.18790232272375161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-17 11:00:03FORECAST2025119-16534.1632.4533.305124.6506831328900.22.032.23FF2.1626.1627374.2623838337846.6520618158240.5145804408671163112125DRYL
2025-01-17 07:00:04FORECAST2025119-16528.72424.31426.519127.000471033200.342.032.37FF-3.27616.72427375.5931809276847.7005108946730.31385730789275162112124DRYL
2025-01-17 03:00:04FORECAST2025119-16528.52628.23828.382127.9986326505200.52.272.77FF-3.47434.52627376.1560883085648.1474649666640.30715106621465162113126DRYL