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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, January 26, 2025

[ Saturday, January 25, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, January 27, 2025 ]

DAY 118 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/27/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.11°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.29°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.70°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.879
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 98

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.71 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.71 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 115 in
SWE DAY: 26
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 367.90 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 42.35 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -166

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-27 07:00:03OBSERVATION2025118-16643.1099620.2899231.69994115.10475666667001.711.71FF11.1099698.1099626367.90131073024 42.3471908489520.8785513073783316 5111123.5DRYL
2025-01-27 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025118-16643.1099620.2899231.69994115.10475666667001.711.71FF11.1099698.1099626367.90131073024 42.3471908489520.8785513073783316 5111123.5DRYL
2025-01-26 11:00:01FORECAST2025118-16632.3616.8824.62114.998032001.711.71FF0.3687.3626367.8389540838342.3007558125790.44549702118053162111122DRYL
2025-01-26 07:00:03FORECAST2025118-16633.7117.02425.367115.38360011667001.711.71FF1.7188.7126368.0641524712542.4685669860220.51068006591806163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-26 03:00:03FORECAST2025118-16634.01617.90625.961115.37995931667001.711.71FF2.01689.01626368.0620270240842.4669817040480.52547779415288163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-25 23:00:02FORECAST2025118-16635.09616.19625.646115.9480448001.711.71FF3.09682.09626368.3934296145842.7144978809770.57728919973573163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-25 19:00:01FORECAST2025118-16634.2514.91824.584115.9631001.711.71FF2.2581.2526368.4022058257742.7210618343940.53677111384113163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-25 15:00:01FORECAST2025118-16634.23218.33826.285115.962608001.711.71FF2.23281.23226368.4019190267942.7208473225510.53590333141211163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-25 11:00:01FORECAST2025118-16634.95218.08626.519115.9482416001.711.71FF2.95281.95226368.3935443384642.7145836828360.57043791742511163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-25 07:00:03FORECAST2025118-16634.37620.31827.347116.2323557001.711.71FF2.37685.37626368.5591078828742.8384933239160.54284046312682163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-25 03:00:03FORECAST2025118-16634.35820.10227.23116.2325525001.711.71FF2.35885.35826368.5592225239342.8385791813720.54197399130106163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-24 23:00:01FORECAST2025118-16635.09620.89427.995116.940468001.711.71FF3.09679.09626368.9712308792443.1476684175550.57728919973573163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-24 19:00:01FORECAST2025118-16635.43821.03828.238116.9282664001.711.71FF3.43879.43826368.9641357942343.1423367621940.59346395829249163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-24 15:00:01FORECAST2025118-16635.92420.87628.4116.9265936001.711.71FF3.92479.92426368.9631630638343.1416058209350.61617127519747163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-24 11:00:02FORECAST2025118-16634.62819.38227.005116.9541456001.711.71FF2.62877.62826368.9791839792743.1536452064810.55494783712753163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-24 07:00:03FORECAST2025118-16634.75419.56227.158117.0662155001.711.71FF2.75480.75426369.0443387431543.202624088360.56098307495732163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-24 03:00:03FORECAST2025118-16635.4220.0327.725117.0483067001.711.71FF3.4282.4226369.0339282394943.1947964152820.59261636287527163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-23 23:00:02FORECAST2025118-16635.29420.327.797117.9362368001.711.71FF3.29477.29426369.5495179731643.5832794610080.5866712640961163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-23 19:00:02FORECAST2025118-16635.13220.31827.725117.9411568001.711.71FF3.13278.13226369.5523716056343.5854342053520.57899845847307163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-23 15:00:02FORECAST2025118-16635.0620.67827.869117.9437152001.711.71FF3.0677.0626369.5538554804343.5865546818450.57557848480081163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-23 11:00:02FORECAST2025118-16635.00620.5727.788117.9059296001.711.71FF3.00676.00626369.5319388106743.5700067623630.57300975078379163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-23 07:00:04FORECAST2025118-16635.1520.04827.599117.56199755001.711.71FF3.1578.1526369.3323521827743.4194490824460.57985253197119163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-23 03:00:04FORECAST2025118-16634.8819.8527.365117.55510955001.711.71FF2.8879.8826369.3283532379343.4164350248060.56700416970245163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-22 23:00:02FORECAST2025118-16633.94418.89626.42117.9057328001.711.71FF1.94463.94426369.5318246558543.5699205789690.52199837860227163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-22 19:00:02FORECAST2025118-16634.12419.00426.564117.9032728001.711.71FF2.12462.12426369.5303977156843.5688432897640.53069319330433163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-22 15:00:02FORECAST2025118-16634.6120.4827.545117.8801488001.711.71FF2.6163.6126369.516984042343.5587170630340.5540845861358163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-22 11:00:02FORECAST2025118-16634.57418.93226.753117.898156001.711.71FF2.57461.57426369.5274296515843.5666025473410.55235731888925163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-22 07:00:04FORECAST2025118-16634.86219.427.131117.75045616667001.711.71FF2.86263.86226369.4417378785543.5019331622060.56614493127274163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-22 03:00:03FORECAST2025118-16634.03418.8626.447117.77613856667001.711.71FF2.03462.03426369.4566404779143.5131764833020.52634735490297163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 23:00:02FORECAST2025118-16635.02418.75226.888118.7847992001.711.71FF3.02464.02426370.0411628178443.9552652210520.57386634508938163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 19:00:02FORECAST2025118-16634.53818.3226.429118.811564001.711.71FF2.53861.53826370.0566527256743.9670096789420.55062905827015163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 15:00:02FORECAST2025118-16634.39418.69826.546118.8106784001.711.71FF2.39461.39426370.056140208843.9666210642940.54370673135496163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 11:00:02FORECAST2025118-16633.51218.62626.069118.87024514546001.711.71FF1.51258.51226370.0906102707843.9927615689210.50109594344573163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 07:00:03FORECAST2025118-16633.58418.60826.096118.677087690900.011.711.72FF1.58460.58426369.9788150206443.9080082739790.5045814430703163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 03:00:03FORECAST2025118-16633.6220.08426.852118.62142526667001.711.71FF1.6263.6226369.9465886625243.883591619690.50632407836676163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 23:00:03FORECAST2025118-16630.34417.25823.801118.87105974151001.711.71FF-1.65649.34426370.0910816247643.9931190736160.3513468329661162111122DRYL
2025-01-20 19:00:02FORECAST2025118-16630.217.58223.891118.8966152133200.011.711.72FF-1.848.226370.1058684264144.0043350264870.34488713609129162111122DRYL
2025-01-20 15:00:02FORECAST2025118-16629.24616.5222.883119.1593818973700.041.721.76FF-2.75443.24626370.2578537410344.1196969944280.30330000176079162111122DRYL
2025-01-20 11:00:02FORECAST2025118-16628.47215.40421.938119.6475739519900.051.791.84FF-3.52835.47226370.5399568410944.3342068883130.27130694377562162111122DRYL
2025-01-20 07:00:04FORECAST2025118-16628.52615.31421.92120.6209695621300.11.841.94FF-3.47436.52626371.1013931211344.7626098441280.2734834187995162112124DRYL
2025-01-20 03:00:04FORECAST2025118-16629.87617.3323.603121.7213977729100.112.052.16FF-2.12436.87626371.7344299985645.2480344197420.33051936720532162112124DRYL
2025-01-19 23:00:02FORECAST2025118-16634.14219.29226.717121.8484921058800.062.012.07FF2.14231.14226371.8074288953345.3041745646580.53156193903739163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-19 19:00:03FORECAST2025118-16633.40419.90426.654121.5662822806600.051.982.03FF1.40433.40426371.6453047116845.1795380208620.49586762029617162111122DRYL
2025-01-19 15:00:03FORECAST2025118-16632.2719.61625.943121.4366844777700.051.952FF0.2729.2726371.5708142890645.1223277359670.44118405953436162111122DRYL
2025-01-19 11:00:03FORECAST2025118-16634.64619.86827.257120.631659663900.031.831.86FF2.64636.64626371.1075512680144.7673198232670.5558108276432163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-19 07:00:04FORECAST2025118-16633.06218.91425.988121.193850882800.051.831.88FF1.06236.06226371.4311719902745.0151740714140.47932022124358162111122DRYL
2025-01-19 03:00:04FORECAST2025118-16631.04615.00823.027121.5489999842900.091.831.92FF-0.95426.04626371.6353725839145.1719078963620.38342450985997162111122DRYL
2025-01-18 19:00:03FORECAST2025118-16634.32221.61427.968121.2741490390700.081.711.79FF2.32247.32226371.4773572547345.050600388350.54024045320577163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-18 15:00:02FORECAST2025118-16634.95224.94429.948121.1007425850100.051.711.76FF2.95250.95226371.377606893844.9741039742820.57043791742511163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-18 11:00:03FORECAST2025118-16630.30820.37225.34122.398774415140.0129921330.2229921331.731.952992133FF-1.69242.30826372.1232215945245.5474262545830.34972779245251162112124DRYL
2025-01-18 07:00:04FORECAST2025118-16634.1622.44228.301121.4393383371800.061.721.78FF2.1652.1626371.5723399243645.1234991048130.53243053450496163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-18 03:00:04FORECAST2025118-16634.5221.59628.058122.1689478753900.111.791.9FF2.5249.5226371.9913837983145.4457959773490.54976456557608163112125DRYL
2025-01-17 23:00:04FORECAST2025118-16630.66820.22825.448122.6036317549300.131.872FF-1.33245.66826372.2406711918845.6380581750180.36603651434434162112124DRYL
2025-01-17 19:00:03FORECAST2025118-16630.3818.12224.251123.6473279787800.241.912.15FF-1.6244.3826372.8380992195746.1004347371880.35296857395848162112124DRYL
2025-01-17 15:00:03FORECAST2025118-16628.7968.43818.617130.952879728280.381889971.011889971.792.80188997FF-3.20433.79626376.9758615838949.3660746624590.28449354385384162114128DRYL
2025-01-17 11:00:03FORECAST2025118-16638.13811.60624.872124.699686332890.1011811570.3011811571.932.231181157FF6.13845.13826373.4388841752546.5677117211580.71366249936102164112126DRYL
2025-01-17 07:00:04FORECAST2025118-16629.53410.81420.174127.00047103320.2374017030.4374017031.932.367401703FF-2.46640.53426374.7468079249747.5930211246590.31561994823553162112124DRYL
2025-01-17 03:00:04FORECAST2025118-16629.53423.07226.303127.998632650520.3102363880.5502363882.222.770236388FF-2.46658.53426375.3118584232448.0394046957010.31561994823553162113126DRYL
2025-01-16 23:00:03FORECAST2025118-16625.89823.9924.944127.487491837030.153543390.593543391.652.24354339FF-6.10240.89826375.0226850825747.8107015031640.17844390208352161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-16 19:00:03FORECAST2025118-16626.94223.37825.16125.5935501707300.391.652.04FF-5.05840.94226373.9479257820246.9654475779440.21343242217014161112123DRYL
2025-01-16 15:00:03FORECAST2025118-16626.79822.96424.881124.4267203833200.241.651.89FF-5.20240.79826373.2832037985646.4464048228330.20838199489708161112123DRYL
2025-01-16 11:00:03FORECAST2025118-16628.07625.71826.897129.23372631730.0023622060.9023622061.662.562362206FF-3.92445.07626376.0090539502548.5930511710340.25561429355274162113126DRYL
2025-01-16 07:00:05FORECAST2025118-16632.46830.75831.613127.1257938793100.681.662.34FF0.46860.46826374.8178307509847.649014294340.45068105741839162113126DRYL
2025-01-16 03:00:04FORECAST2025118-16632.52232.05432.288128.838339584900.761.672.43FF0.52249.52226375.7861008653548.4156572745760.45327629044609162113126DRYL