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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, January 25, 2025

[ Friday, January 24, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, January 26, 2025 ]

DAY 117 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/26/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.89°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 14.59°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 20.74°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.224
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 97

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.96 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.96 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 115 in
SWE DAY: 25
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 367.20 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 42.38 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -167

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 1.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-26 07:00:03OBSERVATION2025117-16726.8899814.5900420.74001115.40495291667001.961.96FF-5.1100296.8899825367.20162725399 42.376886504170.224161219246716 1111121.5DRYL
2025-01-26 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025117-16726.8899814.5900420.74001115.40495291667001.961.96FF-5.1100296.8899825367.20162725399 42.376886504170.224161219246716 1111121.5DRYL
2025-01-25 11:00:01FORECAST2025117-16718.84210.23814.54116001.961.96FF-13.15888.84225367.5500459245942.6358053272530.04238337405529161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-25 07:00:03FORECAST2025117-16722.76612.07417.42116.2694525001.961.96FF-9.23492.76625367.7076456494242.7531666397220.10519675508864161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-25 03:00:02FORECAST2025117-16723.21611.89417.555116.2694525001.961.96FF-8.78493.21625367.7076456494242.7531666397220.1153583834762161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-24 23:00:01FORECAST2025117-16724.99811.96618.482117001.961.96FF-7.00285.99825368.1343923737943.0717239077330.16233812334524161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-24 19:00:01FORECAST2025117-16725.4311.71418.572117001.961.96FF-6.5786.4325368.1343923737943.0717239077330.17537733338804161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-24 15:00:01FORECAST2025117-16725.44814.68420.066117001.961.96FF-6.55286.44825368.1343923737943.0717239077330.17593463233901161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-24 11:00:01FORECAST2025117-16724.4414.19819.319117001.961.96FF-7.5685.4425368.1343923737943.0717239077330.14645253111577161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-24 07:00:03FORECAST2025117-16724.45814.30619.382117.1159075001.961.96FF-7.54288.45825368.2020265725843.1223144853870.1469481403431161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-24 03:00:03FORECAST2025117-16724.92614.48619.706117.1159075001.961.96FF-7.07488.92625368.2020265725843.1223144853870.16022774249418161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-23 23:00:02FORECAST2025117-16724.90814.97219.94118001.961.96FF-7.09283.90825368.717256466443.5086362630350.15970295463962161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-23 19:00:02FORECAST2025117-16725.82614.97220.399118001.961.96FF-6.17484.82625368.717256466443.5086362630350.18789541854633161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-23 15:00:01FORECAST2025117-16725.08815.1720.129118001.961.96FF-6.91284.08825368.717256466443.5086362630350.16500136054467161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-23 11:00:02FORECAST2025117-16725.21415.11620.165117.9624112001.961.96FF-6.78683.21425368.6953740728543.4921953239190.16877702149564161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-23 07:00:04FORECAST2025117-16724.94415.18820.066117.62192315001.961.96FF-7.05684.94425368.4970630838343.3433332350470.16075365333887161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-23 03:00:04FORECAST2025117-16724.83615.2620.048117.60755675001.961.96FF-7.16486.83625368.4886918674443.3370547405330.15761503359046161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-22 23:00:02FORECAST2025117-16724.40414.4519.427117.9347608001.961.96FF-7.59672.40425368.679276004643.480102227520.14546467315096161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-22 19:00:02FORECAST2025117-16723.41414.46818.941117.9351544001.961.96FF-8.58670.41425368.6795051665343.480274365930.12004308467616161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-22 15:00:02FORECAST2025117-16724.15214.73819.445117.9292504001.961.96FF-7.84871.15225368.6760677135443.4776923058770.13867494912065161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-22 11:00:02FORECAST2025117-16722.87414.55818.716117.9485368001.961.96FF-9.12668.87425368.687296535843.4861271631450.10757457307156161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-22 07:00:03FORECAST2025117-16722.8214.52218.671117.81146416667001.961.96FF-9.1870.8225368.6074789180843.4261867941220.10638088220976161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-22 03:00:03FORECAST2025117-16722.4614.61218.536117.80959456667001.961.96FF-9.5470.4625368.6063900548443.4253693670430.098665997339973161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-21 23:00:02FORECAST2025117-16723.2714.75619.013118.8483656001.961.96FF-8.7371.2725369.2105788774943.880073861820.11662298850027161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-21 19:00:02FORECAST2025117-16722.56814.21618.392118.8601736001.961.96FF-9.43268.56825369.2174377009443.8852487412810.10093633047895161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-21 15:00:02FORECAST2025117-16723.25214.59418.923118.8551552001.961.96FF-8.74869.25225369.2145227261143.8830494007060.1162003691827161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-21 11:00:02FORECAST2025117-16722.58614.41418.5118.89327074546001.961.96FF-9.41466.58625369.2366614925643.8997543639850.10131838058837161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-21 07:00:03FORECAST2025117-16722.67614.41418.545118.701589290900.011.961.97FF-9.32468.67625369.1253048624343.8157603346570.10324438806971161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-21 03:00:03FORECAST2025117-16724.69215.15219.922118.64769806667001.961.96FF-7.30871.69225369.0939871901243.7921519503550.15349309458736161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-20 23:00:02FORECAST2025117-16723.10814.77418.941118.87105974151001.961.96FF-8.89261.10825369.2237608691843.8900197362640.1128583892852161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-20 19:00:02FORECAST2025117-16723.07215.54819.31118.8966152133200.011.961.97FF-8.92860.07225369.2386039675643.9012202178360.1120336892203161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-20 15:00:02FORECAST2025117-16721.7414.91818.329119.1593818973700.051.962.01FF-10.2655.7425369.391167925144.0164232483030.084475820018183161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-20 11:00:02FORECAST2025117-16720.67813.13616.907119.6475739519900.131.962.09FF-11.32248.67825369.6743450563144.230638538280.066410542664684161112123DRYL
2025-01-20 07:00:03FORECAST2025117-16721.16412.95617.06120.6209695621300.231.962.19FF-10.83650.16425370.2379188529344.6584567407050.074268681657932161112123DRYL
2025-01-20 03:00:04FORECAST2025117-16722.04612.03817.042121.7213977729100.451.962.41FF-9.95449.04625370.8733658468245.143224487620.090308069778314161112123DRYL
2025-01-19 23:00:02FORECAST2025117-16722.31612.21817.267121.8726985058800.361.962.32FF-9.68439.31625370.9605962964645.2099689099990.095697150036038161112123DRYL
2025-01-19 19:00:03FORECAST2025117-16722.80213.40618.104121.5778934806600.321.962.28FF-9.19841.80225370.790599350545.0799399914660.10598511187095161112123DRYL
2025-01-19 15:00:02FORECAST2025117-16723.10813.49618.302121.4381604777700.291.962.25FF-8.89239.10825370.7099789608945.0183379157620.1128583892852161112123DRYL
2025-01-19 11:00:03FORECAST2025117-16724.33214.8119.571120.701031663900.151.962.11FF-7.66844.33225370.284210991844.6936862755650.14350239206837161112123DRYL
2025-01-19 07:00:04FORECAST2025117-16724.51213.26218.887121.212546882800.171.962.13FF-7.48844.51225370.5797484698544.9189151352190.14844169175964161112123DRYL
2025-01-19 03:00:04FORECAST2025117-16720.76811.98416.376121.5489999842900.211.962.17FF-11.23236.76825370.7739312978845.06720056950.067815195082369161112123DRYL
2025-01-18 19:00:03FORECAST2025117-16726.56417.6922.127121.3340746390700.081.962.04FF-5.43654.56425370.6499069701244.9724634772770.21264885966266161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-18 15:00:02FORECAST2025117-16729.1217.5123.315121.1883185850100.051.962.01FF-2.8858.1225370.5657587792144.908241231630.31166986918428162111122DRYL
2025-01-18 11:00:02FORECAST2025117-16726.4215.9821.2122.31351693710.0153543390.2253543391.962.185354339FF-5.5854.4225371.2145533374645.4045575569380.20767511995984161112123DRYL
2025-01-18 07:00:04FORECAST2025117-16728.59817.09622.847121.4832247371800.071.962.03FF-3.40259.59825370.7359823737645.0382026648720.28991317239132162111122DRYL
2025-01-18 03:00:04FORECAST2025117-16728.20215.54821.875122.2279878753900.191.962.15FF-3.79857.20225371.1653019762445.3667880297160.27389812762024162112124DRYL
2025-01-17 23:00:03FORECAST2025117-16726.43817.97822.208122.6036317549300.291.962.25FF-5.56257.43825371.3815344163645.5327248861650.20829305999014161112123DRYL
2025-01-17 19:00:03FORECAST2025117-16725.7918.1421.965123.6473279787800.441.962.4FF-6.2155.7925371.9812369894645.9944860119890.18673517349014161112123DRYL
2025-01-17 15:00:03FORECAST2025117-16720.37214.66617.519126.806010861250.3555120030.7055120031.962.665512003FF-11.62847.37225373.7865438210747.3983805355630.061802233804357161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-17 11:00:03FORECAST2025117-16723.28816.53819.913123.574997960590.0992126520.4192126521.962.379212652FF-8.71249.28825371.9397277776445.9624511015830.11704669322161161112123DRYL
2025-01-17 07:00:04FORECAST2025117-16722.76616.48419.625124.03141262440.1039370640.4239370641.962.383937064FF-9.23452.76625372.201530212946.1646815732710.10519675508864161112123DRYL
2025-01-17 03:00:04FORECAST2025117-16730.32625.62827.977125.191936669320.1933071910.7533071911.962.713307191FF-1.67471.32625372.8658490080646.679797755170.36441024091057162113126DRYL
2025-01-16 23:00:03FORECAST2025117-16731.08224.81827.95125.776215954830.228346580.448346581.892.33834658FF-0.91857.08225373.1995676101446.9396294099810.39891355173422162112124DRYL
2025-01-16 19:00:03FORECAST2025117-16729.8425.26827.554125.593550170730.1838583670.4038583671.892.293858367FF-2.1655.8425373.0952889159646.8583618869280.34277679522917162112124DRYL
2025-01-16 15:00:03FORECAST2025117-16732.8124.6228.715124.426720383320.0322834820.2522834821.892.142283482FF0.8155.8125372.4280361835846.3399991211230.48036992125336162112124DRYL
2025-01-16 11:00:03FORECAST2025117-16727.78823.41425.601129.211715800730.3555120030.9155120031.892.805512003FF-4.21258.78825375.1518115006948.4740092497560.25763606870002162113126DRYL
2025-01-16 07:00:04FORECAST2025117-16738.325.19631.748127.128647479310.1909449850.7009449851.892.590944985FF6.370.325373.970128894347.5423166839970.72848555913451164113129DRYL
2025-01-16 03:00:04FORECAST2025117-16738.322.44230.371128.84148838490.2539371450.7839371451.92.683937145FF6.359.325374.942245565648.3081169770490.72848555913451164113129DRYL
2025-01-15 23:00:03FORECAST2025117-16734.12423.10828.616124.571095836450.0090551230.1190551231.92.019055123FF2.12451.12425372.5107046718646.4040666917810.54305432180134163112125DRYL
2025-01-15 19:00:03FORECAST2025117-16733.8923.70228.796124.816250448610.0125984320.1225984321.922.042598432FF1.8943.8925372.6510092562146.512901701250.53192475779913163112125DRYL
2025-01-15 15:00:03FORECAST2025117-16728.79622.15425.475124.925299721100.141.912.05FF-3.20449.79625372.7133912423446.5613321110190.29808187090979162112124DRYL
2025-01-15 11:00:03FORECAST2025117-16725.30424.2624.782124.4501496008300.171.892.06FF-6.69641.30425372.4414536688146.3503946266320.17150755698866161112123DRYL
2025-01-15 07:00:04FORECAST2025117-16723.01814.46818.743128.395780402490.0326771830.4926771831.92.392677183FF-8.98233.01825374.6896925458948.1085754832010.11080470661491161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-15 03:00:04FORECAST2025117-16722.8221.93822.379129.939551039930.0244094620.7044094621.92.604409462FF-9.1837.8225375.5632260040948.8005169740780.10638088220976161113124.5DRYL