MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 24, 2025

[ Thursday, January 23, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, January 25, 2025 ]

DAY 116 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/25/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.67°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.85°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.26°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.302
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 111

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.96 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.96 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 116 in
SWE DAY: 24
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 366.83 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 42.65 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -168

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-25 07:00:03OBSERVATION2025116-16829.6700818.8499224.26116.2694525001.961.96FF-2.32992110.6700824366.8312506069 42.6512686679550.3022393369035216 2111122DRYL
2025-01-25 03:00:02OBSERVATION2025116-16829.6700818.8499224.26116.2694525001.961.96FF-2.32992110.6700824366.8312506069 42.6512686679550.3022393369035216 2111122DRYL
2025-01-24 11:00:01FORECAST2025116-16821.43413.74817.591117001.961.96FF-10.566102.43424367.2596220538442.96937578030.054271497800801161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-24 07:00:03FORECAST2025116-16824.04414.6319.337117.1159075001.961.96FF-7.956105.04424367.3275137515243.0198951227280.10384478556872161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-24 03:00:03FORECAST2025116-16823.88214.34219.112117.1159075001.961.96FF-8.118104.88224367.3275137515243.0198951227280.10003866290874161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-23 23:00:01FORECAST2025116-16826.16816.53821.353118001.961.96FF-5.832100.16824367.8447052436143.4056752187470.16362072321681161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-23 19:00:01FORECAST2025116-16826.20416.86221.533118001.961.96FF-5.796100.20424367.8447052436143.4056752187470.16479568532346161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-23 15:00:01FORECAST2025116-16825.8817.22221.551118001.961.96FF-6.1299.8824367.8447052436143.4056752187470.15441687904424161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-23 11:00:02FORECAST2025116-16825.48416.82621.155117.9624112001.961.96FF-6.51699.48424367.8227395387843.3892572501840.14232977902565161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-23 07:00:03FORECAST2025116-16825.71816.8821.299117.62192315001.961.96FF-6.282100.71824367.6236735343843.2406034765820.14939271567596161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-23 03:00:04FORECAST2025116-16826.616.95221.776117.60755675001.961.96FF-5.4102.624367.6152704468543.2343337812450.17807870536475161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-22 23:00:01FORECAST2025116-16825.716.30421.002117.9347608001.961.96FF-6.388.724367.806580181543.3771810543710.14884127022353161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-22 19:00:01FORECAST2025116-16824.85416.30420.579117.9351544001.961.96FF-7.14687.85424367.806810215943.3773529521830.1244481248895161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-22 15:00:02FORECAST2025116-16825.08816.84420.966117.9292504001.961.96FF-6.91288.08824367.8033596757443.3747745011610.13089780047349161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-22 11:00:02FORECAST2025116-16825.4316.37620.903117.9485368001.961.96FF-6.5787.4324367.8146312486943.3831975694150.14073239954402161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-22 07:00:03FORECAST2025116-16825.3416.53820.939117.81146416667001.961.96FF-6.6689.3424367.7345097470143.3233410179070.13809714948882161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-22 03:00:03FORECAST2025116-16824.816.64620.723117.80959456667001.961.96FF-7.288.824367.7334167382243.3225247345450.12299174936236161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-21 23:00:02FORECAST2025116-16826.90617.6922.298118.8483656001.961.96FF-5.09488.90624368.3399058461843.7765957950760.18879111098393161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-21 19:00:02FORECAST2025116-16826.4217.5121.965118.8601736001.961.96FF-5.5887.4224368.3467907827343.7817634974390.17195958879713161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-21 15:00:02FORECAST2025116-16825.82617.92421.875118.8551552001.961.96FF-6.17486.82624368.3438647099343.7795672070660.15272992313776161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-21 11:00:02FORECAST2025116-16824.90817.65421.281118.893270745460.003937010.003937011.961.96393701FF-7.09284.90824368.3660877637443.796249005940.12591647916487161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-21 07:00:03FORECAST2025116-16825.55617.63621.596118.70158929090.0082677210.0082677211.961.968267721FF-6.44486.55624368.254307173443.7123715247010.14447857782726161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-21 03:00:03FORECAST2025116-16825.7917.5121.65118.64769806667001.961.96FF-6.2187.7924368.2228702675343.6887959327430.15161208409194161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-20 23:00:02FORECAST2025116-16825.91617.13221.524118.871059741510.0043307110.0043307111.961.964330711FF-6.08478.91624368.3531380247343.7865278761080.15554831603022161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-20 19:00:02FORECAST2025116-16825.64617.52821.587118.896615213320.0090551230.0090551231.961.969055123FF-6.35477.64624368.3680376341943.7977128274790.14719508196017161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-20 15:00:02FORECAST2025116-16824.87217.04220.957119.159381897370.0429134090.0529134091.962.012913409FF-7.12874.87224368.5211824376743.9127563153620.124936244162161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-20 11:00:02FORECAST2025116-16823.46815.36819.418119.647573951990.0488189240.1288189241.962.088818924FF-8.53269.46824368.8054376891144.1266758798060.090775191106608161112123DRYL
2025-01-20 07:00:03FORECAST2025116-16823.3615.29619.328120.620969562130.0980315490.2280315491.962.188031549FF-8.6470.3624369.3711571403244.5539071025510.088466412846814161112123DRYL
2025-01-20 03:00:04FORECAST2025116-16823.07214.14418.608121.721397772910.1106299810.4506299811.962.410629981FF-8.92868.07224370.0090234265345.0380155200680.082523211858077161112123DRYL
2025-01-19 23:00:02FORECAST2025116-16822.15414.88218.518121.872698505880.0645669640.3645669641.962.324566964FF-9.84658.15424370.0965859824845.1046696414970.065573846001511161112123DRYL
2025-01-19 19:00:02FORECAST2025116-16823.07215.11619.094121.577893480660.0535433360.3235433361.962.283543336FF-8.92860.07224369.9259418191944.9748167502280.082523211858077161112123DRYL
2025-01-19 15:00:02FORECAST2025116-16822.85615.0818.968121.438160477770.0464567180.2864567181.962.246456718FF-9.14456.85624369.8450144892944.9132982214520.078266186760599161112123DRYL
2025-01-19 11:00:02FORECAST2025116-16821.95615.47618.716120.70103166390.0283464720.1483464721.962.108346472FF-10.04460.95624369.4176255239744.5890885155730.06229830294478161112123DRYL
2025-01-19 07:00:03FORECAST2025116-16821.93813.87417.906121.21254688280.0500000270.1700000271.962.130000027FF-10.06260.93824369.7142881809244.8140104893720.062006948067181161112123DRYL
2025-01-19 03:00:03FORECAST2025116-16821.39812.81217.105121.548999984290.0937008380.2137008381.962.173700838FF-10.60257.39824369.9092103074844.9620945978520.053749482459524161112123DRYL
2025-01-18 19:00:02FORECAST2025116-16827.2319.83223.531121.334074639070.0767716950.0767716951.962.036771695FF-4.7769.2324369.7847137906844.8674860634660.20055574784396161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-18 15:00:02FORECAST2025116-16826.85219.4923.171121.188318585010.0488189240.0488189241.962.008818924FF-5.14869.85224369.7002452283244.8033510996850.18687243072253161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-18 11:00:02FORECAST2025116-16825.44817.00621.227122.177614779750.1877953770.2077953771.962.167795377FF-6.55269.44824370.2729485375645.2390656697850.14126350597756161112123DRYL
2025-01-18 07:00:03FORECAST2025116-16825.62817.81621.722121.483224737180.0566929440.0666929441.962.026692944FF-6.37271.62824369.8711169031144.9331360185330.14664906765513161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-18 03:00:04FORECAST2025116-16824.51215.8920.201122.227987875390.1094488780.1894488781.962.149448878FF-7.48869.51224370.3020710236945.2612770473150.11542566564274161112123DRYL
2025-01-17 23:00:03FORECAST2025116-16824.81818.91421.866122.603631754930.1255906190.2855906191.962.245590619FF-7.18271.81824370.5191267102745.4269905693450.12347587839066161112123DRYL
2025-01-17 19:00:03FORECAST2025116-16824.58418.69821.641123.647327978780.2433072180.4433072181.962.403307218FF-7.41670.58424371.1211124884845.8881339157140.11728553002184161112123DRYL
2025-01-17 15:00:03FORECAST2025116-16824.74618.24821.497123.343651796180.2685040820.3485040821.962.308504082FF-7.25467.74624370.9461219477645.753849300670.12154732809094161112123DRYL
2025-01-17 11:00:03FORECAST2025116-16826.18620.73223.459122.635037657070.0996063530.3196063531.962.279606353FF-5.81467.18624370.5372643845245.4408513711440.16420752447635161112123DRYL
2025-01-17 07:00:04FORECAST2025116-16826.621.0223.81123.041804251560.0988189510.3188189511.962.278818951FF-5.470.624370.7720513310445.6204621618240.17807870536475161112123DRYL
2025-01-17 03:00:03FORECAST2025116-16834.68226.20430.443123.806648114220.0515748310.5615748311.962.521574831FF2.68281.68224371.2128652476945.9586205831930.55670000482593163113127.5DRYL
2025-01-16 23:00:02FORECAST2025116-16835.47428.61632.045123.867772501080.2102363340.2202363341.892.110236334FF3.47467.47424371.2480570405445.9856698709670.59754340563502163112125DRYL
2025-01-16 19:00:02FORECAST2025116-16833.65626.97830.317124.09029601290.2114174370.2214174371.892.111417437FF1.65666.65624371.3761267252446.0841734974590.50294448894852163112125DRYL
2025-01-16 15:00:02FORECAST2025116-16833.45826.40229.93124.181218745210.2133859420.2233859421.892.113385942FF1.45864.45824371.4284349553946.1244357293870.49253398538009162112124DRYL
2025-01-16 11:00:03FORECAST2025116-16834.03426.58230.308126.06644791160.543307380.563307381.892.45330738FF2.03472.03424372.5102976794746.9610500389440.52280755825347163113127.5DRYL
2025-01-16 07:00:04FORECAST2025116-16832.93626.49229.714125.711881836710.4885829410.5085829411.892.398582941FF0.93672.93624372.3072207710346.8034413445230.46513097205085162113126DRYL
2025-01-16 03:00:04FORECAST2025116-16827.89623.82825.862126.710230590370.5145672070.5345672071.92.434567207FF-4.10461.89624372.8785555535847.2475277563970.22607671415482161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-15 23:00:03FORECAST2025116-16829.5724.8927.23124.495441529580.0425197080.1125197081.92.012519708FF-2.4357.5724371.6091156582346.2636409302890.29765318860158162112124DRYL
2025-01-15 19:00:02FORECAST2025116-16829.73224.2626.996124.69684162240.0425197080.1125197081.922.032519708FF-2.26850.73224371.7248465672546.3529143195060.30509257755545162112124DRYL
2025-01-15 15:00:03FORECAST2025116-16836.39223.88230.137124.92529972110.0933071370.1433071371.912.053307137FF4.39262.39224371.8560542203946.4542290265890.64355860441096163112125DRYL
2025-01-15 11:00:02FORECAST2025116-16831.15423.14427.149124.450149600830.1606300080.1706300081.892.060630008FF-0.84657.15424371.5830813181946.2435700591850.37358100307693162112124DRYL
2025-01-15 07:00:04FORECAST2025116-16826.47421.75824.116128.018697182310.4598427680.4598427681.92.359842768FF-5.52651.47424373.6251740990747.8310080226760.17378110129315161112123DRYL
2025-01-15 03:00:04FORECAST2025116-16830.97421.14626.06129.636269799450.5326774530.6826774531.92.582677453FF-1.02655.97424374.5447469864648.5545838723040.36463076386285162113126DRYL
2025-01-14 23:00:04FORECAST2025116-16833.45824.40428.931125.931011838140.0311023790.1711023791.92.071102379FF1.45862.45824372.4327485649446.9008328684440.49253398538009162112124DRYL
2025-01-14 19:00:03FORECAST2025116-16836.33825.12430.731125.359457374750.0169291430.0769291431.891.966929143FF4.33856.33824372.1051891482346.6469045979510.64090163204931163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-14 15:00:03FORECAST2025116-16836.19431.76633.98124.37664741004001.891.89FF4.19465.19424371.5408250088646.2110021905610.63378330247035163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-14 11:00:03FORECAST2025116-16833.45831.96432.711124.53643343094001.91.9FF1.45853.45824371.6326757094446.281807979250.49253398538009162111122DRYL
2025-01-14 07:00:04FORECAST2025116-16832.43229.9331.181124.47866821648001.91.9FF0.43255.43224371.599474507346.2562076966130.43882751803205162111122DRYL
2025-01-14 03:00:10FORECAST2025116-16832.50431.71232.108124.4955715891001.91.9FF0.50450.50424371.6091904136746.2636985683110.44257140962025162111122DRYL