MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 22, 2025

[ Tuesday, January 21, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, January 23, 2025 ]

DAY 114 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/23/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.32°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.01°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.17°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.892
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 110

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.04 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.04 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 118 in
SWE DAY: 22
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 365.90 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 43.06 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -170

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-23 07:00:03OBSERVATION2025114-17045.3225.0100635.16503117.67200875003.043.04FF13.32110.3222365.89642296816 43.0557670851030.8922014443438416 5111123.5DRYL
2025-01-23 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025114-17045.3225.0100635.16503117.67200875003.043.04FF13.32110.3222365.89642296816 43.0557670851030.8922014443438416 5111123.5DRYL
2025-01-22 11:00:01FORECAST2025114-17032.34216.71824.53117.9981304003.043.04FF0.34297.34222366.0885233230543.1977613130170.43421691577258162111122DRYL
2025-01-22 07:00:03FORECAST2025114-17034.28616.89825.592117.86381296667003.043.04FF2.28699.28622366.0094235714243.1392662438590.51778334651084163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-22 03:00:03FORECAST2025114-17034.01617.18625.601117.86223856667003.043.04FF2.01699.01622366.0084962447143.1385807018210.50613992925982163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 23:00:01FORECAST2025114-17036.62616.95226.789118.926692003.043.04FF4.62695.62622366.6346172146243.6026421980210.61701756170125163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 19:00:01FORECAST2025114-17035.70816.86226.285118.9343672003.043.04FF3.70894.70822366.6391256911643.605992404840.57862499380471163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 15:00:01FORECAST2025114-17035.79820.60628.202118.9307264003.043.04FF3.79894.79822366.6369870658143.6044031968450.5824286309108163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 11:00:02FORECAST2025114-17035.25820.91228.085118.9446008003.043.04FF3.25894.25822366.645136856543.6104594386580.55950353097541163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 07:00:03FORECAST2025114-17035.13222.1928.661118.73488046667003.043.04FF3.13295.13222366.5219169690943.5189359997390.55412255829192163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 03:00:03FORECAST2025114-17035.13221.7428.436118.73822606667003.043.04FF3.13296.13222366.5238831709743.5203956987870.55412255829192163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 23:00:02FORECAST2025114-17035.83421.30828.571118.9329896003.043.04FF3.83485.83422366.638316483943.6053910813410.58394795026693163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 19:00:02FORECAST2025114-17035.61821.61428.616118.9371224003.043.04FF3.61884.61822366.640744097243.6071950575160.57481400645044163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 15:00:01FORECAST2025114-17034.86222.20828.535118.95572003.043.04FF2.86283.86222366.6516680417243.6153131611030.5425595365056163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 11:00:02FORECAST2025114-17034.28621.79428.04118.9684136003.043.04FF2.28684.28622366.6591237710443.6208542870070.51778334651084163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 07:00:03FORECAST2025114-17034.44821.34427.896119.43900906667003.043.04FF2.44884.44822366.9353637480843.8263962375880.52476275849606163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 03:00:03FORECAST2025114-17033.76422.127.932119.45583546667003.043.04FF1.76483.76422366.9452347476643.8337495872940.49526781890454162111122DRYL
2025-01-19 23:00:02FORECAST2025114-17033.65623.25228.454119.9795328003.043.04FF1.65674.65622367.2522445140444.0627527165460.49060894807975162111122DRYL
2025-01-19 19:00:02FORECAST2025114-17034.26823.48628.877119.9698896003.043.04FF2.26876.26822367.2465950214744.0585334607010.5170074804719163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-19 15:00:02FORECAST2025114-17032.48623.28827.887119.9949816003.043.04FF0.48673.48622367.2612949433344.0695123291170.44035276293253162111122DRYL
2025-01-19 11:00:02FORECAST2025114-17034.39422.49628.445119.9615256003.043.04FF2.39476.39422367.2416948393144.0548739768540.52243702586108163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-19 07:00:03FORECAST2025114-17032.68422.31627.5120.31593568333003.043.04FF0.68475.68422367.4492403869344.2099991732840.44881269504524162111122DRYL
2025-01-19 03:00:03FORECAST2025114-17032.12621.86626.996120.32223328333003.043.04FF0.12675.12622367.4529266256844.2127567580980.42504323179141162111122DRYL
2025-01-18 19:00:02FORECAST2025114-17035.31222.38828.85120.9446992003.043.04FF3.31275.31222367.8169901859244.4855152386860.56180636229105163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-18 15:00:01FORECAST2025114-17036.48223.6330.056120.9270856003.043.04FF4.48278.48222367.806696376844.4777918570110.61106035003096163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-18 11:00:02FORECAST2025114-17036.24823.57629.912120.9140968003.043.04FF4.24879.24822367.7991051163944.4720965989960.60132455546584163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-18 07:00:03FORECAST2025114-17036.60824.40430.506121.15218333333003.043.04FF4.60880.60822367.9382142176744.5765179842380.61627438947687163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-18 03:00:04FORECAST2025114-17036.55424.27830.416121.17324093333003.043.04FF4.55480.55422367.9505136947244.5857562474740.61404231634228163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-17 23:00:03FORECAST2025114-17036.6825.6131.145120.881428003.043.04FF4.6882.6822367.780010839144.4577729000860.61924448599036163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-17 19:00:02FORECAST2025114-17036.62625.84431.235120.8831992003.043.04FF4.62681.62622367.7810461116244.4585494590960.61701756170125163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-17 15:00:03FORECAST2025114-17036.80626.07831.442120.875524003.043.04FF4.80679.80622367.7765598970544.4551843924730.62442519329787163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-17 11:00:03FORECAST2025114-17034.86224.78229.822120.923248003.043.04FF2.86277.86222367.8044535304744.476109149770.5425595365056163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-17 07:00:03FORECAST2025114-17035.02425.5230.272121.35142106667003.043.04FF3.02481.02422368.0545601209444.6639439007430.5495023101749163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-17 03:00:03FORECAST2025114-17034.46626.22230.344121.33794026667003.043.04FF2.46683.46622368.0466897951644.658027261710.525537819178163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-16 23:00:02FORECAST2025114-17032.39625.3428.868122.9958672002.972.97FF0.39665.39622369.012597767645.3870244701510.43651608383878162111122DRYL
2025-01-16 19:00:02FORECAST2025114-17031.94625.03428.49123002.972.97FF-0.05399999999999866.94622369.0150004574645.3888450562680.41742915799722162111122DRYL
2025-01-16 15:00:02FORECAST2025114-17032.41424.99828.706122.9967528002.972.97FF0.41465.41422369.0131126318445.3874145943370.43728295397935162111122DRYL
2025-01-16 11:00:03FORECAST2025114-17033.81823.95428.886122.96602293443002.972.97FF1.81868.81822368.9952464298645.3738779351910.49759753610815162111122DRYL
2025-01-16 07:00:04FORECAST2025114-17034.23223.70228.967122.82357146942002.972.97FF2.23271.23222368.9124075876745.3111394592980.51545555809936163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-16 03:00:04FORECAST2025114-17035.18625.82630.506122.81969577229002.982.98FF3.18668.18622368.9101533607245.3094328030720.55642996948753163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-15 23:00:03FORECAST2025114-17038.9328.23833.584123.78396604424002.982.98FF6.9363.9322369.4703196663245.7345015039310.70775497075306164111123DRYL
2025-01-15 19:00:02FORECAST2025114-17038.40828.25633.332123.928847577710033FF6.40858.40822369.554366116545.7984467101280.68806789351729163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-15 15:00:03FORECAST2025114-17037.1327.21232.171123.91135874139002.992.99FF5.1362.1322369.5442224026845.7907267129460.63764241758662163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-15 11:00:02FORECAST2025114-17036.01425.730.857123.21357008161002.972.97FF4.01460.01422369.1391295759845.4829500118760.5915253092983163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-15 07:00:04FORECAST2025114-17035.13224.83629.984123.68643593454002.982.98FF3.13260.13222369.4137245762345.6914669781390.55412255829192163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-15 03:00:04FORECAST2025114-17037.18427.15832.171123.48421375966002.982.98FF5.18462.18422369.2963337517245.6022674176580.63982991799072163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-14 23:00:03FORECAST2025114-17039.21829.44434.331124.86461568854002.982.98FF7.21863.21822370.0964651655446.2119528905830.7183636500378164111123DRYL
2025-01-14 19:00:03FORECAST2025114-17037.47227.80632.639125.01099847504002.972.97FF5.47254.47222370.1811495723746.276715124680.65141789361609163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-14 15:00:02FORECAST2025114-17037.77827.55432.666124.96970421004002.972.97FF5.77856.77822370.1572634740246.2584437275440.66357702955793163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-14 11:00:02FORECAST2025114-17035.67225.6130.641124.95423615989002.982.98FF3.67245.67222370.1483155486346.2516000352480.5771014614858163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-14 07:00:04FORECAST2025114-17034.84425.21430.029124.88244548135002.982.98FF2.84448.84422370.1067816240946.2198399784470.54178727541016163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-14 03:00:09FORECAST2025114-17035.43825.86230.65124.8956659891002.982.98FF3.43848.43822370.1144308123646.2256883284850.56717137243802163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-13 23:00:06FORECAST2025114-17035.56426.9631.262126.10008884377002.982.98FF3.56447.56422370.8102153553946.7592011004930.57252403033918163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-13 19:00:03FORECAST2025114-17035.40225.86230.632126.1818984995600.012.993FF3.40243.40222370.857398921246.7954906684830.56563973055152163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-13 15:00:03FORECAST2025114-17035.72627.01431.37126.327051644040.0342519870.0342519872.993.024251987FF3.72649.72622370.9410915985646.8598944352680.57938632032554163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-13 11:00:03FORECAST2025114-17037.27427.24832.261125.94675352331002.992.99FF5.27452.27422370.7217530820846.6912012611580.64346557201557163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-13 07:00:04FORECAST2025114-17036.9527.06832.009126.216483260530033FF4.9551.9522370.8773426689946.8108339126920.63031860779641163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-13 03:00:04FORECAST2025114-17037.63425.68231.658127.179630221170.129921330.1299213333.12992133FF5.63439.63422371.4320505787947.2385908449040.65787541985033163112125DRYL
2025-01-12 23:00:02FORECAST2025114-17027.9525.89826.924126.11568410101002.972.97FF-4.0535.9522370.8192106471946.7661184285670.26087430640427162111122DRYL
2025-01-12 19:00:02FORECAST2025114-17027.39224.85426.123126.13636607044002.972.97FF-4.60834.39222370.8311393878446.7752923481430.24164860363819161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-12 15:00:03FORECAST2025114-17028.47223.88226.177126.32175722138002.982.98FF-3.52835.47222370.9380394724146.8575449664070.27954551036362162111122DRYL
2025-01-12 11:00:02FORECAST2025114-17025.26821.77623.522126.314685537810033FF-6.73233.26822370.9339627277646.8544068572510.17597831265432161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-12 07:00:04FORECAST2025114-17028.05825.98827.023125.67039935647002.972.97FF-3.94243.05822370.5622316973646.5687036438340.26468412301888162111122DRYL
2025-01-12 03:00:05FORECAST2025114-17028.07627.69827.887126.10735081576003.023.02FF-3.92434.07622370.8144040806846.7624221429380.26532182878957162111122DRYL