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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 21, 2025

[ Monday, January 20, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, January 22, 2025 ]

DAY 113 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/22/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.03°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.07°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.05°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.343
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 95

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.91 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.91 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 118 in
SWE DAY: 21
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 365.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 43.05 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -171

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-22 07:00:03OBSERVATION2025113-17130.0300818.0699824.05003117.89018416667003.913.91TF-1.9699295.0300821365.14215431386 43.0466758190750.3427804359707516 2111122DRYL
2025-01-22 03:00:02OBSERVATION2025113-17130.0300818.0699824.05003117.89018416667003.913.91TF-1.9699295.0300821365.14215431386 43.0466758190750.3427804359707516 2111122DRYL
2025-01-21 11:00:02FORECAST2025113-17123.73815.72819.733119003.913.91TF-8.26288.73821365.797358981143.5298857187510.13486685631015161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-21 07:00:02FORECAST2025113-17124.85415.72820.291118.78585166667003.913.91TF-7.14689.85421365.67107547943.4365501306390.16362409279139161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-21 03:00:03FORECAST2025113-17125.91615.9820.948118.78585166667003.913.91TF-6.08490.91621365.67107547943.4365501306390.19442531384233161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-20 23:00:02FORECAST2025113-17126.72616.84421.785119003.913.91TF-5.27479.72621365.797358981143.5298857187510.22013248325531161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-20 19:00:01FORECAST2025113-17126.2417.1521.695119003.913.91TF-5.7679.2421365.797358981143.5298857187510.20448177853515161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-20 15:00:01FORECAST2025113-17126.47417.61822.046119003.913.91TF-5.52679.47421365.797358981143.5298857187510.21193323941215161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-20 11:00:02FORECAST2025113-17126.72617.7822.253119003.913.91TF-5.27479.72621365.797358981143.5298857187510.22013248325531161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-20 07:00:03FORECAST2025113-17126.97818.51822.748119.47482666667003.913.91TF-5.02279.97821366.0771198923443.737000445770.22851039054125161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-20 03:00:03FORECAST2025113-17127.17619.20223.189119.47482666667003.913.91TF-4.82480.17621366.0771198923443.737000445770.23521656794134161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-19 23:00:01FORECAST2025113-17127.42819.05823.243120003.913.91TF-4.57271.42821366.386151606143.9663381927320.24390637362936161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-19 19:00:02FORECAST2025113-17127.57219.38223.477120003.913.91TF-4.42871.57221366.386151606143.9663381927320.2489485669355161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-19 15:00:02FORECAST2025113-17127.46419.97623.72120003.913.91TF-4.53671.46421366.386151606143.9663381927320.24516174103984161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-19 11:00:02FORECAST2025113-17128.07620.6624.368120003.913.91TF-3.92472.07621366.386151606143.9663381927320.26702347799925162111122DRYL
2025-01-19 07:00:03FORECAST2025113-17128.61620.46224.539120.32292208333003.913.91TF-3.38472.61621366.5759665232444.1074914575990.28709762788744162111122DRYL
2025-01-19 03:00:03FORECAST2025113-17129.04821.3825.214120.32292208333003.913.91TF-2.95273.04821366.5759665232444.1074914575990.30365391669058162111122DRYL
2025-01-18 19:00:02FORECAST2025113-17130.77621.93826.357121003.913.91TF-1.22469.77621366.9734505955544.4037875220620.37369818429295162111122DRYL
2025-01-18 15:00:01FORECAST2025113-17131.56823.12627.347121003.913.91TF-0.43271.56821366.9734505955544.4037875220620.40743533687252162111122DRYL
2025-01-18 11:00:02FORECAST2025113-17130.75823.2727.014121003.913.91TF-1.24272.75821366.9734505955544.4037875220620.37294149614162111122DRYL
2025-01-18 07:00:03FORECAST2025113-17130.97424.24227.608121.27272333333003.913.91TF-1.02673.97421367.1333620105644.5232626375440.38205329637678162111122DRYL
2025-01-18 03:00:04FORECAST2025113-17130.77624.29627.536121.27272333333003.913.91TF-1.22473.77621367.1333620105644.5232626375440.37369818429295162111122DRYL
2025-01-17 23:00:03FORECAST2025113-17130.7424.3527.545121003.913.91TF-1.2675.7421366.9734505955544.4037875220620.37218529767732162111122DRYL
2025-01-17 19:00:02FORECAST2025113-17130.84824.24227.545121003.913.91TF-1.15274.84821366.9734505955544.4037875220620.37672977965655162111122DRYL
2025-01-17 15:00:02FORECAST2025113-17132.43224.58428.508120.9976384003.913.91TF0.43273.43221366.9720653868144.4027532705740.44503043058711162111122DRYL
2025-01-17 11:00:02FORECAST2025113-17133.58424.6229.102120.9839608003.913.91TF1.58472.58421366.9640425560544.3967633396110.49587741788373162111122DRYL
2025-01-17 07:00:03FORECAST2025113-17134.05224.92629.489121.41980906667003.913.91TF2.05276.05221367.2195598075644.5877288373790.51660024435454163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-17 03:00:03FORECAST2025113-17134.93427.24831.091121.40337626667003.913.91TF2.93478.93421367.2099311637544.5805254419290.55548863690949163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-16 23:00:02FORECAST2025113-17130.79426.02428.409123003.843.84TF-1.20662.79421368.1435828142945.2816606861570.37445535943286162111122DRYL
2025-01-16 19:00:02FORECAST2025113-17131.2825.50228.391123003.843.84TF-0.7265.2821368.1435828142945.2816606861570.39507314042193162111122DRYL
2025-01-16 15:00:02FORECAST2025113-17130.93825.05227.995123003.843.84TF-1.06262.93821368.1435828142945.2816606861570.38052996583108162111122DRYL
2025-01-16 11:00:02FORECAST2025113-17131.20822.6426.924123.00528453443003.843.84TF-0.79265.20821368.1466667490645.2839854938720.39199849573045162111122DRYL
2025-01-16 07:00:04FORECAST2025113-17130.97422.62226.798122.87040986942003.843.84TF-1.02666.97421368.0679439895445.2246591377890.38205329637678162111122DRYL
2025-01-16 03:00:04FORECAST2025113-17130.59622.1926.393122.89566057229003.853.85TF-1.40462.59621368.0826842060745.2357646207260.36615366133166162111122DRYL
2025-01-15 23:00:03FORECAST2025113-17130.88425.05227.968124.02307804424003.853.85TF-1.11654.88421368.7398569490345.7322520564120.37824844492644162111122DRYL
2025-01-15 19:00:02FORECAST2025113-17130.39824.58427.491124.11383957771003.873.87TF-1.60250.39821368.7926801320445.7722755393410.35791412106923162111122DRYL
2025-01-15 15:00:03FORECAST2025113-17130.25424.4427.347124.04301794139003.863.86TF-1.74655.25421368.7514630065145.741044341630.35196276004831162111122DRYL
2025-01-15 11:00:02FORECAST2025113-17130.72224.06227.392123.33411008161003.843.84TF-1.27853.72221368.3384804992945.4286987011940.37142959160253162111122DRYL
2025-01-15 07:00:04FORECAST2025113-17131.31623.93627.626123.76919033454003.853.85TF-0.68455.31621368.5920296916745.6203370787040.3966129287757162111122DRYL
2025-01-15 03:00:04FORECAST2025113-17133.15224.42228.787123.65375695966003.853.85TF1.15255.15221368.5247865603245.5694743909420.47675725383523162111122DRYL
2025-01-14 23:00:03FORECAST2025113-17134.726.81630.758125.14869648854003.853.85TF2.753.721369.3941063153546.2291908959160.54520773112544163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-14 19:00:03FORECAST2025113-17133.09826.00629.552125.22049207504003.843.84TF1.09847.09821369.4357730312746.2609292890990.47437008854124162111122DRYL
2025-01-14 15:00:02FORECAST2025113-17133.85425.9729.912125.22613461004003.843.84TF1.85448.85421369.4390473659946.2634238756570.50783512525347163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-14 11:00:02FORECAST2025113-17131.60425.01628.31125.06710095989003.853.85TF-0.39639.60421369.3467429570746.1931263906180.40898738721659162111122DRYL
2025-01-14 07:00:04FORECAST2025113-17131.6425.86228.751124.95575348135003.853.85TF-0.3643.6421369.2820937900246.1439222767010.41054086556221162111122DRYL
2025-01-14 03:00:09FORECAST2025113-17130.72225.728.211125.0030203891003.853.85TF-1.27842.72221369.3095395386146.1648079008320.37142959160253162111122DRYL
2025-01-13 23:00:06FORECAST2025113-17131.29826.43828.868126.22840244377003.853.85TF-0.70242.29821370.0199145008346.7070226798210.39584283147462162111122DRYL
2025-01-13 19:00:03FORECAST2025113-17130.05624.83627.446126.308637699560.0122047310.0122047313.863.872204731TF-1.94438.05621370.0663511718746.7425766749650.34383872811337162111122DRYL
2025-01-13 15:00:03FORECAST2025113-17133.36824.74629.057126.22764443408003.863.86TF1.36844.36821370.0194757527146.7066868189980.48631340282472162111122DRYL
2025-01-13 11:00:03FORECAST2025113-17132.52224.67428.598126.15113032331003.863.86TF0.52244.52221369.9751838166646.6727876300460.44898128922692162111122DRYL
2025-01-13 07:00:04FORECAST2025113-17133.3525.12429.237126.43296326053003.873.87TF1.3545.3521370.1382867004846.7976804037180.48551668090616162111122DRYL
2025-01-13 03:00:04FORECAST2025113-17130.32623.28826.807126.53051314378003.873.87TF-1.67432.32621370.1947137560246.8409270946640.35493401823586162111122DRYL
2025-01-12 23:00:02FORECAST2025113-17133.11626.90630.011126.11568410101003.843.84TF1.11638.11621369.9546620456546.6570852902450.47516571231936162111122DRYL
2025-01-12 19:00:02FORECAST2025113-17132.82826.7829.804126.13636607044003.843.84TF0.82836.82821369.9666362017546.6662470577930.46244976543907162111122DRYL
2025-01-12 15:00:03FORECAST2025113-17135.58226.631.091126.32175722138003.853.85TF3.58236.58221370.0739432794346.7483908169020.58374399203226163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-12 11:00:02FORECAST2025113-17132.91825.5229.219126.31468553781003.873.87TF0.91837.91821370.0698510136846.7452568578180.46641999356262162111122DRYL
2025-01-12 07:00:04FORECAST2025113-17134.3425.8830.11125.67039935647003.843.84TF2.3445.3421369.6967047180746.4599325226920.52933405824102163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-12 03:00:05FORECAST2025113-17137.29222.129.696126.10735081576003.893.89TF5.29236.29221369.9498371794346.6533939014190.65590931143488163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-11 23:00:02FORECAST2025113-17123.19821.18222.19122.66441174576003.293.29FF-8.80222.19821367.9476562932845.1340828124450.12227378692847161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-11 19:00:03FORECAST2025113-17123.86423.3623.612122.59844343865003.33.3FF-8.13620.86421367.9091223652645.1050857288590.13792855439197161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-11 15:00:03FORECAST2025113-17129.17423.39626.285122.38758193985003.33.3FF-2.82640.17421367.7859089706145.0124280704610.30856184160603162111122DRYL
2025-01-11 11:00:03FORECAST2025113-17119.61618.87819.247122.75125749544003.33.3FF-12.38413.61621367.9983754735945.1722633456620.059120378796019161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-11 07:00:04FORECAST2025113-17115.81811.313.559121.9519773631003.263.26FF-16.18211.81821367.5311616377244.8211519042770.023537575439269161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-11 03:00:04FORECAST2025113-17115.83614.97215.404121.939764850700.013.293.3FF-16.16412.83621367.5240155358644.815792031430.023649415841675161111121.5DRYL