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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, January 2, 2025

[ Wednesday, January 1, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, January 3, 2025 ]

DAY 94 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/03/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.19°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.22°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.71°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.522
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 56

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.26 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.68 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 13.80 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 14.48 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 123 in
SWE DAY: 2
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 350.84 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 43.09 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -190

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-03 07:00:03OBSERVATION202594-19032.1900825.2199428.70501122.831119166670.26000000000010.680000000000113.814.48TT0.1900856.190082350.83569439323 43.0935409859350.521717664232716 3113127.5WETL
2025-01-03 03:00:03OBSERVATION202594-19032.1900825.2199428.70501122.831119166670.26000000000010.680000000000113.814.48TT0.1900856.190082350.83569439323 43.0935409859350.521717664232716 3113127.5WETL
2025-01-02 11:00:02FORECAST202594-19028.74223.30626.024125.151369086340.3263781290.74637812913.814.546378129TT-3.25852.7422352.2874695954944.0892591318370.34123785165093162113126WETL
2025-01-02 07:00:03FORECAST202594-19028.72423.5426.132125.300940474970.3086615840.72866158413.814.528661584TT-3.27652.7242352.3807628551744.1536409910410.34035037327781162113126WETL
2025-01-02 03:00:03FORECAST202594-19027.5923.16225.376125.621188583590.3842521760.80425217613.814.604252176TT-4.4151.592352.5803944121744.2915682173290.28638829335097162113126WETL
2025-01-01 23:00:02FORECAST202594-19029.2123.39626.303125.016465808240.5389766690.82897666913.814.628976669TT-2.7946.212352.2032949787744.0312111842620.36460771908285162113126WETL
2025-01-01 19:00:01FORECAST202594-19029.01223.23426.123125.380496865060.6401578260.93015782613.814.730157826TT-2.98846.0122352.4303707082844.1878949897420.35465299317936162113126WETL
2025-01-01 15:00:02FORECAST202594-19029.28223.19826.24125.193533180560.5877955930.87779559313.814.677795593TT-2.71846.2822352.3137725028744.1074059678050.36825078430395162113126WETL
2025-01-01 11:00:01FORECAST202594-19028.88623.10825.997126.182802831080.5346459580.82464595813.814.624645958TT-3.11445.8862352.9300933936844.5337083878470.34836893812249162113126WETL
2025-01-01 07:00:03FORECAST202594-19028.63423.0925.862126.105980898880.5374018650.85740186513.814.657401865TT-3.36645.6342352.8822883134344.5005671096060.33592630898598162113126WETL
2025-01-01 03:00:03FORECAST202594-19029.89423.39626.645126.40015119120.5842522840.92425228413.814.724252284TT-2.10645.8942353.0652953411244.6275067114830.39966526516129162113126WETL
2024-12-31 23:00:02FORECAST202594-19032.37823.61227.995127.827352001120.5232286290.95322862913.814.753228629TT0.37841.3782353.9512364163545.2446492886230.53177338663008163113127.5WETL
2024-12-31 19:00:01FORECAST202594-19032.03622.20827.122127.744785216750.4976380640.91763806413.814.717638064TT0.03600000000000140.0362353.9000702062645.2088884566930.51346212567565163113127.5WETL
2024-12-31 15:00:02FORECAST202594-19032.4523.25227.851127.778536019470.4413388210.93133882113.814.731338821TT0.4541.452353.9209867011645.2235055472420.53562113972665163113127.5WETL
2024-12-31 11:00:01FORECAST202594-19032.4522.89227.671128.976644864230.7771657741.21716577413.815.017165774TT0.4541.452354.6623341670145.7431579205780.535621139726651631141210WETL
2024-12-31 07:00:03FORECAST202594-19031.98223.19827.59129.425590268930.7736224651.24362246513.815.043622465TT-0.01800000000000139.9822354.9395451802645.938260144740.510567281815041631141210WETL
2024-12-31 03:00:03FORECAST202594-19031.20823.52227.365129.770672346540.7791342791.28913427913.815.089134279TT-0.79238.2082355.1524087765146.088366872420.46908783525783162114128WETL
2024-12-30 23:00:02FORECAST202594-19029.80421.88425.844124.780264939740.7248035411.20480354113.6814.884803541TT-2.19632.8042352.0558449630643.9296216080740.39499907556814162114128WETL
2024-12-30 19:00:02FORECAST202594-19029.5722.24425.907124.253409228610.6118113541.11181135413.6814.791811354TT-2.4333.572351.7266327653943.7032332375990.38293878569355162114128WETL
2024-12-30 15:00:02FORECAST202594-19028.54422.13625.34125.912267148690.775590971.4355909713.6815.11559097TT-3.45630.5442352.7617018681344.4170256454450.33152484740436162114128WETL
2024-12-30 11:00:02FORECAST202594-19029.22823.4526.339127.147163726110.7114177071.39141770713.6815.071417707TT-2.77230.2282353.5294071633844.9502614145960.36551735510834162114128WETL
2024-12-30 07:00:03FORECAST202594-19028.99424.0826.537126.621323098220.6610239791.20102397913.6914.891023979TT-3.00632.9942353.2027991329744.723005748210.35375279885353162114128WETL
2024-12-30 03:00:04FORECAST202594-19030.12822.6426.384125.887006822940.555118410.9751184113.7514.72511841TT-1.87234.1282352.7459729894644.406134708490.41186300751492162113126WETL
2024-12-29 23:00:01FORECAST202594-19032.01825.73628.877125.688045302420.8771658281.49716582813.715.197165828TT0.01800000000000133.0182352.6220500854544.3203762057720.512497248996961631141210WETL
2024-12-29 19:00:02FORECAST202594-19031.02824.90827.968128.503393149991.0271659092.04716590913.7215.767165909TT-0.97233.0282354.3697722523445.5377181642150.459472915746161621151210WETL
2024-12-29 15:00:02FORECAST202594-19031.20825.03428.121128.556697580091.011811572.0518115713.7115.76181157TT-0.79233.2082354.4027423699345.5608461724060.469087835257831621151210WETL
2024-12-29 11:00:02FORECAST202594-19032.4527.19429.822132.837513023231.1708667742.45086677413.6616.110866774TT0.4534.452357.0360120234547.4277758969280.535621139726651631151212.5WETL
2024-12-29 07:00:04FORECAST202594-19032.73826.31229.525134.10257795251.1586620432.64866204313.7416.388662043TT0.73837.7382357.8087296884447.983073065130.550975304352821631151212.5WETL
2024-12-29 03:00:04FORECAST202594-19032.55825.9729.264135.012457377571.2090557712.72905577113.8216.549055771TT0.55836.5582358.3629624316148.3834641909980.54138641711091631151212.5WETL
2024-12-28 23:00:02FORECAST202594-19033.56626.97830.272127.001523524850.4000002161.44000021614.4915.930000216TT1.56638.5662353.4389913777444.887290378060.594617766829141631141210WETL
2024-12-28 19:00:02FORECAST202594-19032.927.30230.101126.729813180320.3850395781.47503957814.3915.865039578TT0.936.92353.2702197804744.7698689549510.559580082615391631141210WETL
2024-12-28 15:00:02FORECAST202594-19032.70227.37430.038127.140755638720.3759844551.45598445514.4315.885984455TT0.70235.7022353.525429622844.9474902597450.549059724855081631141210WETL
2024-12-28 11:00:03FORECAST202594-19031.51427.71629.615132.771250912490.4192915651.64929156514.4116.059291565TT-0.48632.5142356.9954698149447.3987350974220.485471644918271621151210WETL
2024-12-28 07:00:04FORECAST202594-19032.10826.1529.129132.433107839960.4007876181.52078761814.4916.010787618TT0.10833.1082356.788472031247.2506061925630.517320787965221631151212.5WETL
2024-12-28 03:00:03FORECAST202594-19033.58428.2230.902134.420589681670.62992162.019921614.4116.4299216TT1.58438.5842358.0025850582648.1229185910950.595555604408481631151212.5WETL
2024-12-27 23:00:02FORECAST202594-19035.25829.94832.603130.978427458921.1700793722.51007937214.5717.080079372TT3.25838.2582355.895944019246.6146910866420.679718421291161631151212.5WETL
2024-12-27 19:00:02FORECAST202594-19036.30230.07433.188130.223932200861.1779533922.50795339214.4616.967953392TT4.30241.3022355.4317184179546.2857160012940.728165702820581641151215WETL
2024-12-27 15:00:03FORECAST202594-19036.28431.71233.998132.180069341581.1767722892.85677228914.4817.336772289TT4.28438.2842356.633455553247.1398348845480.727362191326091641151215WETL
2024-12-27 11:00:02FORECAST202594-19036.73430.43433.584134.156746758651.0074808592.58748085914.216.787480859TT4.73437.7342357.8417612779948.006886547440.74708984707111641151215WETL
2024-12-27 07:00:04FORECAST202594-19036.89629.98433.44134.652778998750.8472445522.43724455214.5216.957244552TT4.89637.8962358.1440254531948.2250883090690.754003587941151641151215WETL
2024-12-27 03:00:06FORECAST202594-19035.04228.74231.892139.524880420450.8771658282.56716582814.6217.187165828TT3.04233.0422361.0927555294650.3814235359390.669260468308211631151212.5WETL
2024-12-26 23:00:03FORECAST202594-19036.93229.49833.215117.715803510391.370079482.7600794814.8417.60007948TT4.93233.9322347.6046673859340.9185627252960.75552610766121641151215WETL
2024-12-26 19:00:05FORECAST202594-19038.17429.98434.079116.312295698551.4031503642.82315036414.5817.403150364TT6.17435.1742346.7107947502440.3267284808690.804831223659321641151215WETL
2024-12-26 15:00:02FORECAST202594-19039.9230.72235.321111.061132889761.5503945382.44039453814.617.040394538TT7.9237.922343.3380017257738.1315074357710.863000122140241651151217.5WETL
2024-12-26 11:00:02FORECAST202594-19039.68632.39636.041124.195615088792.5440958623.67409586214.9318.604095862TT7.68639.6862351.6904925726843.6784170459450.855974968680761651151217.5WETL
2024-12-26 07:00:04FORECAST202594-19038.8432.07235.456126.68437325322.4846470113.76464701115.0318.794647011TT6.8435.842353.2419836141944.750239300880.828584823660171641151215WETL
2024-12-26 03:00:04FORECAST202594-19038.73231.40635.069131.509328926742.0047254923.92472549215.4419.364725492TT6.73236.7322356.222064068746.8465245945730.824863441478511641151215WETL
2024-12-25 23:00:02FORECAST202594-19037.8531.62234.736134.545350089851.8909459034.03094590316.520.530945903TT5.8533.852358.0785944507548.1778098500570.792586998383611641151215WETL
2024-12-25 19:00:02FORECAST202594-19036.60833.33234.97133.191909458741.4901582853.49015828516.5220.010158285TT4.60835.6082357.2527322671247.583173570010.741642722199921641151215WETL
2024-12-25 15:00:03FORECAST202594-19036.15831.65833.908134.872307719261.6751977553.12519775516.1519.275197755TT4.15833.1582358.2776768262448.3217370778490.721704861888491641151215WETL
2024-12-25 11:00:03FORECAST202594-19037.16630.81233.989138.802830070420.9641737492.45417374916.6619.114173749TT5.16636.1662360.6580506706850.060358120770.765297769223821641151215WETL
2024-12-25 07:00:04FORECAST202594-19036.57230.36233.467139.263427484590.6244097862.04440978616.7418.784409786TT4.57234.5722360.9354418687650.2651067353070.740075325328041641151215WETL
2024-12-25 03:00:04FORECAST202594-19036.57230.36233.467138.299826481610.5956696132.02566961316.5818.605669613TT4.57236.5722360.3547497369949.836999360450.740075325328041641151215WETL
2024-12-24 23:00:02FORECAST202594-19034.26828.23831.253148.610546071380.6188979722.72889797216.4719.198897972TT2.26828.2682366.4951196687954.4650398664750.630740586351891631151212.5WETL
2024-12-24 19:00:02FORECAST202594-19034.3429.01231.676146.906004810840.7704728572.75047285716.3119.060472857TT2.3428.342365.4910722253253.6928332146510.634386964089421631151212.5WETL
2024-12-24 15:00:03FORECAST202594-19030.54227.08628.814150.032235044830.8940949713.63409497115.7419.374094971TT-1.45823.5422367.3292365743755.1112263605650.433646402945131621151210WETL
2024-12-24 11:00:03FORECAST202594-19029.69624.76427.23133.111363634930.468504192.0285041914.2616.28850419TT-2.30419.6962357.2034940741947.5478441913770.389419513036771621151210WETL
2024-12-24 07:00:04FORECAST202594-19031.02825.55628.292135.80985481760.5188979182.21889791814.5516.768897918TT-0.97220.0282358.847627248648.7350441582730.459472915746161621151210WETL
2024-12-24 03:00:04FORECAST202594-19031.2822.71226.996134.394436004870.9877958091.70779580914.4116.117795809TT-0.7217.282357.9866480622948.1114136636040.47293917429541621151210WETL
2024-12-23 23:00:03FORECAST202594-19026.04217.65421.848141.595320419840.0645669641.77456696415.617.374566964TT-5.95810.0422362.3348364516351.3049172666380.22002376345703161115127.5WETL
2024-12-23 19:00:03FORECAST202594-19032.3627.73430.047146.416257368480.3460631792.28606317915.7318.016063179TT0.3618.362365.2017852701253.4714785835390.530810970220141631151212.5WETL
2024-12-23 15:00:03FORECAST202594-19032.3627.73430.047144.868878178640.3460631792.28606317915.7117.996063179TT0.3630.362364.2854017665152.7736174907710.530810970220141631151212.5WETL
2024-12-23 11:00:03FORECAST202594-19031.06426.97829.021124.165871962690.3842521760.52425217614.2414.764252176TT-0.93627.0642351.6718913473743.6656470339150.46139418613957162113126WETL
2024-12-23 07:00:04FORECAST202594-19031.4626.70829.084118.5530199893700.1313.8513.98TT-0.5429.462348.1363623507341.2726171247920.48257780990329162112124WETL
2024-12-23 03:00:04FORECAST202594-19030.97430.93830.956119.2262312952900.1313.8513.98TT-1.02628.9742348.563082420241.5578626856290.45659279772248162112124WETL