MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, January 19, 2025

[ Saturday, January 18, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, January 20, 2025 ]

DAY 111 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/20/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.50°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.18°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.34°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.510
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 88

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.91 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.91 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 119 in
SWE DAY: 19
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 364.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 43.53 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -173

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-20 07:00:02OBSERVATION2025111-17334.5000216.1799825.34119.47482666667004.914.91TF2.5000287.5000219364.30855396569 43.5257013382350.5098963554527616 3111122.5WETL
2025-01-20 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025111-17334.5000216.1799825.34119.47482666667004.914.91TF2.5000287.5000219364.30855396569 43.5257013382350.5098963554527616 3111122.5WETL
2025-01-19 11:00:01FORECAST2025111-17324.63815.76420.201120004.914.91TF-7.36277.63819364.6199432679643.7543931921560.15148793606786161111121.5WETL
2025-01-19 07:00:03FORECAST2025111-17326.20415.90821.056120.32292208333004.914.91TF-5.79679.20419364.8112062742543.8951503476630.19420848913094161111121.5WETL
2025-01-19 03:00:03FORECAST2025111-17327.15815.09821.128120.32292208333004.914.91TF-4.84280.15819364.8112062742543.8951503476630.2234989456519161111121.5WETL
2025-01-18 19:00:01FORECAST2025111-17327.06816.08821.578121004.914.91TF-4.93275.06819365.2117227339844.1906184508120.22063294179237161111121.5WETL
2025-01-18 15:00:01FORECAST2025111-17327.17616.3421.758121004.914.91TF-4.82475.17619365.2117227339844.1906184508120.22407467261304161111121.5WETL
2025-01-18 11:00:01FORECAST2025111-17327.60816.53822.073121004.914.91TF-4.39275.60819365.2117227339844.1906184508120.23814193055405161111121.5WETL
2025-01-18 07:00:03FORECAST2025111-17328.72417.76223.243121.27272333333004.914.91TF-3.27676.72419365.3728541057144.3097610494720.27661660405185162111122WETL
2025-01-18 03:00:03FORECAST2025111-17329.15618.19423.675121.27272333333004.914.91TF-2.84477.15619365.3728541057144.3097610494720.29228640879937162111122WETL
2025-01-17 23:00:02FORECAST2025111-17330.27218.98624.629121004.914.91TF-1.72878.27219365.2117227339844.1906184508120.33455844803589162111122WETL
2025-01-17 19:00:02FORECAST2025111-17330.39819.20224.8121004.914.91TF-1.60278.39819365.2117227339844.1906184508120.33947922389644162111122WETL
2025-01-17 15:00:02FORECAST2025111-17329.28218.17623.729121004.914.91TF-2.71876.28219365.2117227339844.1906184508120.29693324808819162111122WETL
2025-01-17 11:00:02FORECAST2025111-17326.9617.2422.1121004.914.91TF-5.0473.9619365.2117227339844.1906184508120.21722163985938161111121.5WETL
2025-01-17 07:00:03FORECAST2025111-17327.33817.16822.253121.44332666667004.914.91TF-4.66275.33819365.4735938389344.3843290446220.22929390384898161111121.5WETL
2025-01-17 03:00:03FORECAST2025111-17328.0417.52822.784121.44332666667004.914.91TF-3.9678.0419365.4735938389344.3843290446220.25267906346168162111122WETL
2025-01-16 23:00:02FORECAST2025111-17327.03217.13222.082123004.844.84TF-4.96870.03219366.3907818367745.0660661659220.21949245103883161111121.5WETL
2025-01-16 19:00:01FORECAST2025111-17327.44616.80822.127123004.844.84TF-4.55471.44619366.3907818367745.0660661659220.23281085257273161111121.5WETL
2025-01-16 15:00:01FORECAST2025111-17327.39218.73423.063123004.844.84TF-4.60870.39219366.3907818367745.0660661659220.23104864957942161111121.5WETL
2025-01-16 11:00:02FORECAST2025111-17327.96818.55423.261123.00528453443004.844.84TF-4.03271.96819366.3938892987445.0683846048690.25022423612722162111122WETL
2025-01-16 07:00:04FORECAST2025111-17328.65218.39223.522122.87040986942004.844.84TF-3.34872.65219366.3145659669645.0092208614980.27404551119013162111122WETL
2025-01-16 03:00:03FORECAST2025111-17326.31216.32221.317122.89566057229004.854.85TF-5.68870.31219366.3294186359245.0202958903230.19740227285694161111121.5WETL
2025-01-15 23:00:02FORECAST2025111-17324.99817.38421.191124.02307804424004.854.85TF-7.00257.99819366.9916049190445.5154284584550.16071040500971161111121.5WETL
2025-01-15 19:00:02FORECAST2025111-17324.49415.54820.021124.1138395777100.014.864.87TF-7.50656.49419367.0448310876445.5553432834390.14789920536322161111121.5WETL
2025-01-15 15:00:02FORECAST2025111-17325.01615.87220.444124.04301794139004.864.86TF-6.98460.01619367.0032995185945.5241968667330.16118093203619161111121.5WETL
2025-01-15 11:00:02FORECAST2025111-17324.51215.78220.147123.33411008161004.844.84TF-7.48859.51219366.5871663871145.2127019336950.14834466649401161111121.5WETL
2025-01-15 07:00:03FORECAST2025111-17324.36815.90820.138123.76919033454004.854.85TF-7.63261.36819366.8426498944445.4038177576130.14480599878154161111121.5WETL
2025-01-15 03:00:03FORECAST2025111-17323.79214.52219.157123.66005455966004.854.85TF-8.20859.79219366.7785907938245.3558605488810.13122143336193161111121.5WETL
2025-01-14 23:00:03FORECAST2025111-17326.70819.7623.234125.21295168854004.854.85TF-5.29255.70819367.6884210087246.0393524962010.20938126653466161111121.5WETL
2025-01-14 19:00:02FORECAST2025111-17326.16819.29222.73125.24263207504004.844.84TF-5.83252.16819367.705775586946.0524391636980.19315091225611161111121.5WETL
2025-01-14 15:00:02FORECAST2025111-17326.29418.26622.28125.27474421004004.844.84TF-5.70651.29419367.7245505723446.06659901270.19686778556429161111121.5WETL
2025-01-14 11:00:02FORECAST2025111-17322.29815.74619.022125.06710095989004.854.85TF-9.70244.29819367.603120832145.9750566262780.10016081195226161111121.5WETL
2025-01-14 07:00:04FORECAST2025111-17322.08216.46619.274124.95575348135004.854.85TF-9.91847.08219367.5379784595745.9259850314260.096154868379068161111121.5WETL
2025-01-14 03:00:09FORECAST2025111-17324.58415.02619.805125.0030203891004.854.85TF-7.41647.58419367.5656335904945.9468143900430.15013545320371161111121.5WETL
2025-01-13 23:00:05FORECAST2025111-17327.33813.87420.606126.22840244377004.854.85TF-4.66244.33819368.2814279701246.4875763023810.22929390384898161111121.5WETL
2025-01-13 19:00:03FORECAST2025111-17326.2415.04420.642126.2208242867300.014.854.86TF-5.7643.2419368.2770081101646.4842275295140.19526957759377161111121.5WETL
2025-01-13 15:00:02FORECAST2025111-17326.70815.5321.119126.2560820340800.014.854.86TF-5.29244.70819368.2975710025646.4998083374520.20938126653466161111121.5WETL
2025-01-13 11:00:02FORECAST2025111-17324.27815.65619.967126.15910072331004.864.86TF-7.72245.27819368.241005488846.4569541019150.1426233511475161111121.5WETL
2025-01-13 07:00:03FORECAST2025111-17323.4514.64819.049126.45716966053004.874.87TF-8.5545.4519368.4148133854946.5886945617430.12358428714439161111121.5WETL
2025-01-13 03:00:04FORECAST2025111-17322.13613.5517.843126.53051314378004.874.87TF-9.86440.13619368.4575607606846.6211242347530.097145172476031161111121.5WETL
2025-01-12 23:00:02FORECAST2025111-17326.63611.37219.004126.16153850101004.844.84TF-5.36436.63619368.2424275226446.4580311976040.20717206541094161111121.5WETL
2025-01-12 19:00:02FORECAST2025111-17326.2411.35418.797126.16687007044004.844.84TF-5.7636.2419368.2455375672346.4603868922640.19526957759377161111121.5WETL
2025-01-12 15:00:03FORECAST2025111-17325.77211.7518.761126.4034292213800.014.844.85TF-6.22832.77219368.383486355346.5649359438350.18175038104835161111121.5WETL
2025-01-12 11:00:02FORECAST2025111-17324.58412.81218.698126.33013433781004.874.87TF-7.41637.58419368.3407535168546.5325368738740.15013545320371161111121.5WETL
2025-01-12 07:00:03FORECAST2025111-17325.89814.03619.967125.73583535647004.844.84TF-6.10242.89819367.9939677038346.2700289353850.18533139823498161111121.5WETL
2025-01-12 03:00:04FORECAST2025111-17323.79214.07218.932126.2337948157600.024.874.89TF-8.20835.79219368.2845729480246.4899592153290.13122143336193161111121.5WETL
2025-01-11 23:00:02FORECAST2025111-17324.83614.8119.823122.6644117457600.014.284.29TF-7.16434.83619366.1933606014844.9188931633830.15651596503751161111121.5WETL
2025-01-11 19:00:03FORECAST2025111-17325.14215.11620.129122.5984434386500.014.294.3TF-6.85833.14219366.1545326999244.8899757670160.16449969360511161111121.5WETL
2025-01-11 15:00:02FORECAST2025111-17327.10414.88220.993122.4522307398500.014.294.3TF-4.89638.10419366.0684510256644.8258984315720.22177681361358161111121.5WETL
2025-01-11 11:00:03FORECAST2025111-17323.68413.89218.788122.7512574954400.034.274.3TF-8.31633.68419366.2444667160544.9569688401420.12877537880756161111121.5WETL
2025-01-11 07:00:04FORECAST2025111-17321.81212.5617.186121.951977363100.014.254.26TF-10.18831.81219365.7736885276544.6068245833410.09131414373887161111121.5WETL
2025-01-11 03:00:04FORECAST2025111-17321.00212.59616.799121.845720826300.034.264.29TF-10.99833.00219365.7110311302644.5603242021950.077874173672526161111121.5WETL
2025-01-10 23:00:02FORECAST2025111-17325.4316.08820.759119.4883725915400.054.124.17TF-6.5734.4319364.3165909263643.531596557890.17225006595087161111121.5WETL
2025-01-10 19:00:02FORECAST2025111-17324.90815.820.354119.6682356620200.054.164.21TF-7.09232.90819364.4232796481143.6098909096560.15837120407487161111121.5WETL
2025-01-10 15:00:03FORECAST2025111-17328.6714.37821.524120.0028612469800.114.164.27TF-3.3334.6719364.6216386403243.7556399093990.27468717722874162112124WETL
2025-01-10 11:00:03FORECAST2025111-17336.12216.86226.492123.5068357951200.154.174.32TF4.12241.12219366.6886264615845.2885519763290.57858393400395163112125WETL
2025-01-10 07:00:05FORECAST2025111-17339.16417.61828.391124.443473425590.0035433090.1735433094.284.453543309TF7.16444.16419367.2380382942545.7003770593370.69972398015563164112126WETL
2025-01-10 03:00:05FORECAST2025111-17338.94823.16231.055123.610420198570.0192913490.1392913494.214.349291349TF6.94848.94819366.7494511857945.3340537686690.69164030324869163112125WETL
2025-01-09 23:00:03FORECAST2025111-17326.83422.0124.422127.713866039720.0098425250.3798425254.174.549842525TF-5.16625.83419369.1461642611647.1450837715280.21328048681638161112123WETL
2025-01-09 19:00:03FORECAST2025111-17325.17821.27223.225128.64921375810.0098425250.4598425254.224.679842525TF-6.82225.17819369.6889887101947.5601977325910.16545596824136161112123WETL
2025-01-09 15:00:03FORECAST2025111-17325.19623.10824.152128.3571311477100.464.144.6TF-6.80429.19619369.5196184624747.4304781286390.16593544798532161112123WETL
2025-01-09 11:00:03FORECAST2025111-17333.81832.37833.098123.6667220691800.044.054.09TF1.81852.81819366.7825049113345.3587900947060.48080640748566162111122WETL
2025-01-09 07:00:04FORECAST2025111-17337.3136.55436.932123.2533435789300.043.974.01TF5.3162.3119366.5397084047145.1772446153270.62753197504555163111122.5WETL
2025-01-09 03:00:04FORECAST2025111-17337.34637.0437.193123.3815514967300.054.024.07TF5.34670.34619366.6150381805245.2335322127430.6289878492865163111122.5WETL