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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 17, 2025

[ Thursday, January 16, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, January 18, 2025 ]

DAY 109 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/18/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 23.62°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.67°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 20.14°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.121
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 85

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.07 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.26 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.33 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 121 in
SWE DAY: 17
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 363.60 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 44.09 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -175

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 1.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-18 07:00:02OBSERVATION2025109-17523.6199216.6699420.14493121.2727233333300.075.265.33TF-8.3800884.6199217363.59891536826 44.0946306677550.1214404383540116 1111121.5WETL
2025-01-18 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025109-17523.6199216.6699420.14493121.2727233333300.075.265.33TF-8.3800884.6199217363.59891536826 44.0946306677550.1214404383540116 1111121.5WETL
2025-01-17 11:00:02FORECAST2025109-17522.51413.69418.10412100.075.265.33TF-9.48683.51417363.4365547328243.9758231226710.097528111892958161111121.5WETL
2025-01-17 07:00:03FORECAST2025109-17524.1713.51418.842121.4433266666700.075.265.33TF-7.8385.1717363.700423640244.1689893569420.13475376475756161111121.5WETL
2025-01-17 03:00:02FORECAST2025109-17524.90814.10819.508121.4433266666700.075.265.33TF-7.09285.90817363.700423640244.1689893569420.15413353462486161111121.5WETL
2025-01-16 23:00:01FORECAST2025109-17525.71814.88220.3123005.265.26TF-6.28279.71817364.6246088224444.848826885160.17742308114718161111121.5WETL
2025-01-16 19:00:01FORECAST2025109-17525.84415.63820.741123005.265.26TF-6.15679.84417364.6246088224444.848826885160.18123551466009161111121.5WETL
2025-01-16 15:00:01FORECAST2025109-17525.75416.37621.065123005.265.26TF-6.24679.75417364.6246088224444.848826885160.17850715852316161111121.5WETL
2025-01-16 11:00:02FORECAST2025109-17525.89816.68221.29123.00528453443005.265.26TF-6.10279.89817364.627739991144.8511389067530.18288496739648161111121.5WETL
2025-01-16 07:00:03FORECAST2025109-17526.16816.86221.515122.87040986942005.265.26TF-5.83280.16817364.5478115053344.7921390166580.1912717101121161111121.5WETL
2025-01-16 03:00:03FORECAST2025109-17526.13216.73621.434122.8956605722900.015.265.27TF-5.86881.13217364.562777484644.8031833590380.19014008082275161111121.5WETL
2025-01-15 23:00:02FORECAST2025109-17526.22217.29421.758124.0230780442400.015.265.27TF-5.77869.22217365.2300155559545.2969507233950.19297685840489161111121.5WETL
2025-01-15 19:00:01FORECAST2025109-17525.35816.77221.065124.113839577710.0055118140.0255118145.265.285511814TF-6.64269.35817365.2836477845145.3367560614870.16681125694279161111121.5WETL
2025-01-15 15:00:02FORECAST2025109-17526.31216.66421.488124.0430179413900.025.265.28TF-5.68871.31217365.2417993730645.3056950725770.1958392768969161111121.5WETL
2025-01-15 11:00:01FORECAST2025109-17525.91616.7921.353123.33411008161005.265.26TF-6.08470.91617364.8224915813544.9950573369430.18343685568662161111121.5WETL
2025-01-15 07:00:03FORECAST2025109-17525.32217.16821.245123.7691903345400.015.265.27TF-6.67873.32217365.0799241604345.1856466207330.16577301236381161111121.5WETL
2025-01-15 03:00:03FORECAST2025109-17525.1616.80820.984123.6600545596600.015.265.27TF-6.8472.1617365.0153763559245.137821355290.16115260705074161111121.5WETL
2025-01-14 23:00:02FORECAST2025109-17525.12416.66420.894125.2129516885400.015.265.27TF-6.87666.12417365.9321476230545.8194443216090.16013734245789161111121.5WETL
2025-01-14 19:00:02FORECAST2025109-17524.06215.81819.94125.24263207504005.265.26TF-7.93863.06217365.9496345984945.8324954440140.13206410600437161111121.5WETL
2025-01-14 15:00:02FORECAST2025109-17524.02615.6219.823125.27474421004005.265.26TF-7.97463.02617365.9685528174245.8466168431190.13117581214454161111121.5WETL
2025-01-14 11:00:01FORECAST2025109-17523.1816.03419.607125.0671009598900.015.265.27TF-8.8262.1817365.8461966953645.7553232178890.11147806220101161111121.5WETL
2025-01-14 07:00:03FORECAST2025109-17523.82815.6219.724124.9557534813500.015.265.27TF-8.17263.82817365.780557354745.7063851530840.12636379223682161111121.5WETL
2025-01-14 03:00:07FORECAST2025109-17523.84616.2520.048125.00302038910.003937010.013937015.265.27393701TF-8.15462.84617365.8084234653345.727157816940.12679611235926161111121.5WETL
2025-01-13 23:00:04FORECAST2025109-17522.08214.84618.464126.228402443770.0047244120.0147244125.265.274724412TF-9.91859.08217366.5296786068646.2664557787740.089189266339347161111121.5WETL
2025-01-13 19:00:02FORECAST2025109-17522.115.20618.653126.220824286730.0082677210.0182677215.265.278267721TF-9.959.117366.52522502846.2631160249110.089525809306202161111121.5WETL
2025-01-13 15:00:02FORECAST2025109-17522.71215.4419.076126.256082034080.0062992160.0162992165.265.276299216TF-9.28859.71217366.5459447937446.2786548751380.10153506086994161111121.5WETL
2025-01-13 11:00:02FORECAST2025109-17524.15216.64620.399126.159100723310.0019685050.0219685055.265.281968505TF-7.84862.15217366.4889477443246.2359160724560.13430290472535161111121.5WETL
2025-01-13 07:00:03FORECAST2025109-17523.59416.17819.886126.457169660530.0019685050.0319685055.265.291968505TF-8.40662.59417366.6640816133346.3673019770010.12083669731708161111121.5WETL
2025-01-13 03:00:03FORECAST2025109-17522.56815.72819.148126.530513143780.0031496080.0331496085.265.293149608TF-9.43259.56817366.7071551062546.3996445090890.098609271364052161111121.5WETL
2025-01-12 23:00:02FORECAST2025109-17523.8114.82819.319126.161538501010.0035433090.0135433095.255.263543309TF-8.1954.8117366.4903806267946.2369902656970.12593249718232161111121.5WETL
2025-01-12 19:00:02FORECAST2025109-17524.04414.2719.157126.166870070440.0035433090.0135433095.255.263543309TF-7.95655.04417366.4935143977646.2393396126810.13161944342055161111121.5WETL
2025-01-12 15:00:02FORECAST2025109-17523.73814.8119.274126.403429221380.0051181130.0151181135.255.265118113TF-8.26250.73817366.6325155906946.3436072347230.12421755615193161111121.5WETL
2025-01-12 11:00:02FORECAST2025109-17523.91816.10620.012126.330134337810.0043307110.0443307115.255.294330711TF-8.08253.91817366.5894567454146.3112953174740.12853565464749161111121.5WETL
2025-01-12 07:00:03FORECAST2025109-17524.00816.12420.066125.7358353564700.015.255.26TF-7.99258.00817366.2400253196346.049495524540.13073321169838161111121.5WETL
2025-01-12 03:00:04FORECAST2025109-17522.04615.38618.716126.233794815760.0224409570.0624409575.255.312440957TF-9.95453.04617366.5328475776546.2688322743520.088518996704916161111121.5WETL
2025-01-11 23:00:02FORECAST2025109-17520.78614.30617.546122.664411745760.0090551230.0690551234.644.709055123TF-11.21447.78617364.4256814697744.7020618425370.067348955812531161111121.5WETL
2025-01-11 19:00:02FORECAST2025109-17520.13815.22417.681122.598443438650.0098425250.0798425254.644.719842525TF-11.86249.13817364.3865573519644.6732247413180.058102305524742161111121.5WETL
2025-01-11 15:00:02FORECAST2025109-17520.9314.77417.852122.452230739850.0059055150.0759055154.644.715905515TF-11.0752.9317364.2998189646344.6093254903410.06955001498249161111121.5WETL
2025-01-11 11:00:03FORECAST2025109-17520.71414.16217.438122.537775448260.0102362260.0602362264.644.700236226TF-11.28651.71417364.3505709294644.6467084450.066268742775463161111121.5WETL
2025-01-11 07:00:03FORECAST2025109-17520.42614.19817.312121.898820821680.0031496080.0431496084.634.673149608TF-11.57455.42617363.9712253641444.3676631849120.062081169937936161111121.5WETL
2025-01-11 03:00:04FORECAST2025109-17520.0313.47816.754121.785515183490.0212598540.0612598544.644.701259854TF-11.9755.0317363.9038918347244.3182229443680.056662783877021161111121.5WETL
2025-01-10 23:00:02FORECAST2025109-17523.07214.97219.022119.197298830420.0228346580.0228346584.544.562834658TF-8.92849.07217362.3605175819843.1923948985630.10912406883726161111121.5WETL
2025-01-10 19:00:02FORECAST2025109-17522.26214.91818.59119.361296366280.0240157610.0240157614.584.604015761TF-9.73849.26217362.4586120023443.2635298077230.092597147948037161111121.5WETL
2025-01-10 15:00:02FORECAST2025109-17522.80217.52820.165119.509900096090.0570866450.0570866454.584.637086645TF-9.19847.80217362.547463402443.3280111313110.10339539017402161111121.5WETL
2025-01-10 11:00:03FORECAST2025109-17521.93818.55420.246123.133427011610.1133858880.1333858884.574.703385888TF-10.06244.93817364.7036535327344.9072107031420.086530633649325161112123WETL
2025-01-10 07:00:05FORECAST2025109-17523.1817.76220.471123.959955062330.1066929710.1266929714.684.806692971TF-8.8244.1817365.1927080342545.2692716770150.11147806220101161112123WETL
2025-01-10 03:00:04FORECAST2025109-17525.8819.68822.784123.30462218780.0838583130.1038583134.614.713858313TF-6.1247.8817364.8050335969344.9821468398780.1823341141769161112123WETL
2025-01-09 23:00:03FORECAST2025109-17525.48422.22623.855127.023416468080.3059056770.4059056774.494.895905677TF-6.51637.48417366.9964215247646.6171392936350.17047798422898161112123WETL
2025-01-09 19:00:03FORECAST2025109-17525.8821.81223.846127.966644676710.3889765880.5189765884.515.028976588TF-6.1238.8817367.5489580894947.0340069211330.1823341141769161113124.5WETL
2025-01-09 15:00:03FORECAST2025109-17525.3422.83824.089127.543776980030.3767718570.4767718574.464.936771857TF-6.6639.3417367.3014088120646.8470089699770.16629161267486161112123WETL
2025-01-09 11:00:03FORECAST2025109-17528.0423.3625.7123.460661497450.0094488240.0694488244.414.479448824TF-3.9645.0417364.8974001146645.0504743968570.25562163354626162111122WETL
2025-01-09 07:00:04FORECAST2025109-17528.52623.75626.141123.449632775350.0082677210.0182677214.384.398267721TF-3.47446.52617364.8908729320945.0456442665440.27400232848625162111122WETL
2025-01-09 03:00:04FORECAST2025109-17533.78224.49429.138123.881230111720.0389763990.0689763994.414.478976399TF1.78254.78217365.1461709116245.2347568231170.50256622642303163111122.5WETL
2025-01-08 23:00:03FORECAST2025109-17530.59623.86427.23127.667954311750.0578740470.0878740474.434.517874047TF-1.40446.59617367.3741305419546.901903713350.35882020388344162111122WETL
2025-01-08 19:00:03FORECAST2025109-17531.40624.06227.734127.957069456240.0704724790.1204724794.454.570472479TF-0.59448.40617367.5433556398647.0297706857890.39433337443958162112124WETL
2025-01-08 15:00:02FORECAST2025109-17532.57622.42427.5128.922471072570.0704724790.1104724794.514.620472479TF0.57640.57617368.1075258097247.4573318478010.447142530238162112124WETL
2025-01-08 11:00:03FORECAST2025109-17535.99621.9228.958128.057305942660.0649606650.0949606654.454.544960665TF3.99645.99617367.6019971317247.0741214118310.60341380759331163112125WETL
2025-01-08 07:00:04FORECAST2025109-17535.27623.19829.237129.303317974240.0838583130.2338583134.464.693858313TF3.27644.27617368.3297083377747.6262533965590.57103860884196163112125WETL
2025-01-08 03:00:04FORECAST2025109-17534.37621.54227.959129.888915782150.0795276020.2995276024.494.789527602TF2.37642.37617368.6709215946947.8862662863420.52991304748492163112125WETL
2025-01-07 23:00:03FORECAST2025109-17526.9620.58823.774133.114361883040.0759842930.2359842934.624.855984293TF-5.0424.9617370.5412394538849.3243606412550.2171975279144161112123WETL
2025-01-07 19:00:03FORECAST2025109-17525.50220.6623.081132.016955218330.0177165450.1777165454.534.707716545TF-6.49823.50217369.9066126327648.8339447149020.17100597413766161112123WETL
2025-01-07 15:00:02FORECAST2025109-17527.24825.01626.132132.424831462340.0362204920.2762204924.44.676220492TF-4.75226.24817370.1426927611749.0160837059140.22710531258584161112123WETL
2025-01-07 11:00:03FORECAST2025109-17529.4828.99429.237134.06319326220.0614173560.5514173564.224.771417356TF-2.5215.4817371.088521526349.7493121787650.31187657699176162113126WETL
2025-01-07 07:00:05FORECAST2025109-17526.54620.2123.378137.243630905020.3216537170.7816537174.235.011653717TF-5.45411.54617372.9133944565551.1799882683310.20340097552797161113124.5WETL
2025-01-07 03:00:04FORECAST2025109-17526.43825.32225.88134.928228856540.0783464990.5383464994.264.798346499TF-5.56210.43817371.5863224496250.1374843554410.19988958682296161113124.5WETL