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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, January 16, 2025

[ Wednesday, January 15, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, January 17, 2025 ]

DAY 108 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/17/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.38°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.41°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.39°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.736
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 90

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.07 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.07 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.86 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 121 in
SWE DAY: 16
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 362.81 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 44.06 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -176

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-17 07:00:02OBSERVATION2025108-17638.3799222.4099630.39494121.443326666670.070000000000050.070000000000055.795.8600000000001TF6.3799290.3799216362.80877218522 44.0607042380230.7358787352892816 4111123WETL
2025-01-17 03:00:02OBSERVATION2025108-17638.3799222.4099630.39494121.443326666670.070000000000050.070000000000055.795.8600000000001TF6.3799290.3799216362.80877218522 44.0607042380230.7358787352892816 4111123WETL
2025-01-16 11:00:01FORECAST2025108-17631.47820.69626.087123.005284534430.0011811030.0011811035.795.791181103TF-0.52283.47816363.7396190419644.7418953367040.40063558298032162111122WETL
2025-01-16 07:00:03FORECAST2025108-17630.7421.12825.934122.870409869420.0035433090.0035433095.795.793543309TF-1.2682.7416363.6593862501344.6829778414140.36465159372268162111122WETL
2025-01-16 03:00:03FORECAST2025108-17631.6420.85826.249122.895660572290.0094488240.0094488245.795.799448824TF-0.3683.6416363.6744092083244.6940067528930.40866075076645162111122WETL
2025-01-15 23:00:02FORECAST2025108-17632.3620.87626.618124.023078044240.0074803190.0074803195.795.797480319TF0.3672.3616364.3441876079145.1870876146610.44474762187689162111122WETL
2025-01-15 19:00:01FORECAST2025108-17633.2620.04826.654124.086434722910.0228346580.0228346585.795.812834658TF1.2673.2616364.3817697780645.2148346897830.4904731606185162111122WETL
2025-01-15 15:00:02FORECAST2025108-17633.92620.19227.059124.043017941390.015748040.015748045.795.80574804TF1.92673.92616364.3560162887145.1958198655530.5244247978999163111122.5WETL
2025-01-15 11:00:01FORECAST2025108-17634.19620.10227.149123.334110081610.003937010.003937015.795.79393701TF2.19674.19616363.9351120961544.8856131778310.5381524727059163111122.5WETL
2025-01-15 07:00:03FORECAST2025108-17634.86219.8527.356123.769190334540.0051181130.0051181135.795.795118113TF2.86276.86216364.1935247800545.075937687110.57178679670183163111122.5WETL
2025-01-15 03:00:03FORECAST2025108-17634.8820.01227.446123.660054559660.0055118140.0055118145.795.795511814TF2.8875.8816364.1287312272645.0281787703050.57268975474587163111122.5WETL
2025-01-14 23:00:02FORECAST2025108-17635.04219.427.221125.212951688540.0062992160.0062992165.795.796299216TF3.04270.04216365.0489928526845.7088619060130.58079869776523163111122.5WETL
2025-01-14 19:00:02FORECAST2025108-17634.21418.35626.285125.242632075040.0043307110.0043307115.795.794330711TF2.21468.21416365.0665464050445.7218951543130.53906621912219163111122.5WETL
2025-01-14 15:00:01FORECAST2025108-17634.0718.28426.177125.274744210040.003937010.003937015.795.79393701TF2.0768.0716365.0855366499745.7359972186080.53175087698503163111122.5WETL
2025-01-14 11:00:01FORECAST2025108-17633.7118.75226.231125.067100959890.0086614220.0086614225.795.798661422TF1.7167.7116364.9627146901145.6448286847430.51342095338038163111122.5WETL
2025-01-14 07:00:03FORECAST2025108-17633.92619.34626.636124.955753481350.0114173290.0114173295.795.801417329TF1.92668.92616364.8968254454545.5959577664870.5244247978999163111122.5WETL
2025-01-14 03:00:07FORECAST2025108-17633.96219.56226.762124.981243902190.0122047310.0122047315.795.802204731TF1.96267.96216364.9119109034945.6071445394430.5262571893364163111122.5WETL
2025-01-13 23:00:03FORECAST2025108-17632.48618.51825.502126.198435497230.011811030.011811035.795.80181103TF0.48666.48616365.6311200583746.1420753204680.45111908813606162111122WETL
2025-01-13 19:00:02FORECAST2025108-17632.43218.42825.43126.166037084240.0114173290.0114173295.795.801417329TF0.43266.43216365.6120054084246.1278178328030.44838681965084162111122WETL
2025-01-13 15:00:01FORECAST2025108-17632.1817.97825.079126.212440008680.0114173290.0114173295.795.801417329TF0.1866.1816365.6393820543846.148238572350.43567063476493162111122WETL
2025-01-13 11:00:02FORECAST2025108-17633.31419.50826.411126.145686422640.015748040.015748045.795.80574804TF1.31467.31416365.5999979735846.1188627004920.493226728114162111122WETL
2025-01-13 07:00:03FORECAST2025108-17632.70218.28425.493126.443313371210.0283464720.0283464725.795.818346472TF0.70267.70216365.7755440127646.2498717351290.4620700541426162111122WETL
2025-01-13 03:00:03FORECAST2025108-17631.80219.02225.412126.511425242060.0279527710.0279527715.795.817952771TF-0.19865.80216365.8156990338246.2798654606890.41672439411925162111122WETL
2025-01-12 23:00:02FORECAST2025108-17633.3520.6627.005126.138990365660.0125984320.0125984325.785.792598432TF1.3560.3516365.596046985146.1159162483770.49506262719889162111122WETL
2025-01-12 19:00:01FORECAST2025108-17632.93620.8426.888126.144321935090.0137795350.0137795355.785.793779535TF0.93659.93616365.5991928672246.1182622842520.47396587431857162111122WETL
2025-01-12 15:00:02FORECAST2025108-17630.68620.62425.655126.368818784390.0145669370.0145669375.785.794566937TF-1.31455.68616365.7316181379346.2170725761920.36206059457728162111122WETL
2025-01-12 11:00:02FORECAST2025108-17633.49419.7626.627126.300382059650.0397638010.0397638015.785.819763801TF1.49459.49416365.691256967246.1869454708290.50240688044237163111122.5WETL
2025-01-12 07:00:03FORECAST2025108-17633.65619.59826.627125.735835356470.0055118140.0055118145.785.785511814TF1.65662.65616365.358042710245.9385987043740.51066806644703163111122.5WETL
2025-01-12 03:00:04FORECAST2025108-17631.9118.10425.007126.078913709490.0358267910.0358267915.785.815826791TF-0.0959.9116365.5605959267746.0894828294410.42211990975217162111122WETL
2025-01-11 23:00:02FORECAST2025108-17631.2817.31224.296122.592483999240.0614173560.0614173565.175.231417356TF-0.7256.2816363.4939699936444.5616287002650.39088401599614162111122WETL
2025-01-11 19:00:02FORECAST2025108-17630.84817.11423.981122.521995193980.0657480670.0657480675.175.235748067TF-1.15257.84816363.4519978138244.5308639293860.36985206686956162111122WETL
2025-01-11 15:00:02FORECAST2025108-17631.71216.89824.305122.405700582460.0665354690.0665354695.175.236535469TF-0.28860.71216363.3827343846144.4801181819180.41224003655924162111122WETL
2025-01-11 11:00:03FORECAST2025108-17630.6515.87223.261122.45944133720.0507874290.0507874295.175.220787429TF-1.3559.6516363.414744162444.5035665438280.36033675678893162111122WETL
2025-01-11 07:00:03FORECAST2025108-17632.30617.49224.899121.874999547440.0444882130.0444882135.165.204488213TF0.30664.30616363.0663964926344.2487169082280.44202125924703162111122WETL
2025-01-11 03:00:04FORECAST2025108-17631.47817.34824.413121.611497093570.0366141930.0366141935.175.206614193TF-0.52264.47816362.90917063744.1339275501520.40063558298032162111122WETL
2025-01-10 23:00:02FORECAST2025108-17632.21620.78626.501119.018799386790.003937010.003937015.075.07393701TF0.21655.21616361.3565430023143.0082218986940.4374834808216162111122WETL
2025-01-10 19:00:02FORECAST2025108-17631.96420.6626.312119.168797982160.003937010.003937015.115.11393701TF-0.03600000000000155.96416361.4466480495643.0731625827470.42482322482439162111122WETL
2025-01-10 15:00:02FORECAST2025108-17632.12621.61426.87119.06243990172005.115.11TF0.12654.12616361.3827616599543.0271133416540.4329539097729162111122WETL
2025-01-10 11:00:02FORECAST2025108-17630.18221.25425.718122.241588873870.0153543390.0153543395.15.115354339TF-1.81852.18216363.2849569530244.4085303519110.33819604204413162111122WETL
2025-01-10 07:00:05FORECAST2025108-17629.51621.3825.448123.137704442310.015748040.015748045.215.22574804TF-2.48449.51616363.8183648383144.7997582801430.3076439568175162111122WETL
2025-01-10 03:00:04FORECAST2025108-17631.29824.18827.743122.69362911870.0224409570.0224409575.145.162440957TF-0.70251.29816363.5541831844744.6057821161850.39176779366027162111122WETL
2025-01-09 23:00:02FORECAST2025108-17633.7126.0629.885124.645240030570.0988189510.0988189515.025.118818951TF1.7140.7116364.7129823818645.4597372312530.51342095338038163112125WETL
2025-01-09 19:00:03FORECAST2025108-17633.24226.40229.822124.888081855690.1291339280.1291339285.045.169133928TF1.24242.24216364.8567720360845.5662624116450.48955539918974162112124WETL
2025-01-09 15:00:02FORECAST2025108-17633.0825.50229.291124.602198231250.1047244660.1047244664.995.094724466TF1.0843.0816364.6874875446645.4408626154960.48129861721076162112124WETL
2025-01-09 11:00:03FORECAST2025108-17635.99626.00631.001123.387406695640.0570866450.0570866454.944.997086645TF3.99645.99616363.9667825747144.9089174252490.62775068188841163111122.5WETL
2025-01-09 07:00:04FORECAST2025108-17636.64426.09631.37123.38472692750.0094488240.0094488244.914.919448824TF4.64446.64416363.9651902768644.9077456134250.65863724215791163111122.5WETL
2025-01-09 03:00:04FORECAST2025108-17634.91626.22230.569123.606821937550.0259842660.0259842664.944.965984266TF2.91649.91616364.0971206759345.0048879633660.5744945244301163111122.5WETL
2025-01-08 23:00:02FORECAST2025108-17634.23225.9730.101127.177454375330.0311023790.0311023794.964.991102379TF2.23245.23216366.207987381246.5733996070540.5399797593314163111122.5WETL
2025-01-08 19:00:03FORECAST2025108-17633.83626.630.218127.385645523890.047244120.047244124.985.02724412TF1.83645.83616366.3304750068846.6652440338260.51984164332083163111122.5WETL
2025-01-08 15:00:02FORECAST2025108-17631.60423.95427.779128.278857133080.043307110.043307115.045.08330711TF-0.39636.60416366.8552545766547.0597727903570.40687394025609162111122WETL
2025-01-08 11:00:03FORECAST2025108-17633.06225.12429.093127.500815702320.0283464720.0283464724.985.008346472TF1.06239.06216366.3982066544646.716070220310.48038162714544162111122WETL
2025-01-08 07:00:04FORECAST2025108-17633.15225.44829.3128.577418244780.1476378750.1476378754.995.137637875TF1.15238.15216367.0303998371447.191821228410.48496751860984162112124WETL
2025-01-08 03:00:04FORECAST2025108-17632.73823.32428.031129.275899193680.2208662610.2208662615.025.240866261TF0.73836.73816367.43963207647.5010888360180.46389824188998162112124WETL
2025-01-07 23:00:02FORECAST2025108-17632.21622.08227.149132.274492604360.1570866990.1570866995.155.307086699TF0.21627.21616369.1882491448848.8341883311310.4374834808216162112124WETL
2025-01-07 19:00:03FORECAST2025108-1763222.7327.365131.81039478510.1503937820.1603937825.065.220393782TF02716368.9184828276948.627290865040.42662740904467162112124WETL
2025-01-07 15:00:02FORECAST2025108-17635.04227.87831.46132.078982589070.2326772910.2426772914.935.172677291TF3.04228.04216369.0746437269648.747003442880.58079869776523163112125WETL
2025-01-07 11:00:03FORECAST2025108-17633.40426.34829.876133.516488154090.4874018380.4874018384.755.237401838TF1.40415.40416369.9086220793849.3889001579580.49781665975938162112124WETL
2025-01-07 07:00:05FORECAST2025108-17632.43222.74827.59133.69748263130.4602364690.4602364694.765.220236469TF0.43214.43216370.0134115481649.4698616638060.44838681965084162112124WETL
2025-01-07 03:00:04FORECAST2025108-17632.43222.74827.59134.088617715010.4629923760.4629923764.795.252992376TF0.43213.43216370.2397005995949.6449296766180.44838681965084162112124WETL
2025-01-06 23:00:03FORECAST2025108-17631.1928.68829.939133.53120555434005.015.01TF-0.819.1916369.917144738649.3954822921630.3864736594324162111122WETL
2025-01-06 19:00:03FORECAST2025108-17630.32627.46428.895133.80976268213005.125.12TF-1.6746.32616370.0783935606149.5201020161280.34495347556746162111122WETL
2025-01-06 15:00:03FORECAST2025108-17630.32627.46428.895132.91230318835005.145.14TF-1.67410.32616369.5584711063849.1188675575130.34495347556746162111122WETL
2025-01-06 11:00:03FORECAST2025108-17624.94419.18422.064133.15627969679004.74.7TF-7.0560.94416369.6999305917449.2278673617580.13845687542488161111121.5WETL
2025-01-06 07:00:04FORECAST2025108-17628.16622.78425.475132.88084965605004.94.9TF-3.8349.16616369.540227722649.1048194418710.24979042499371162111122WETL
2025-01-06 03:00:04FORECAST2025108-17628.1327.46427.797133.2628897831600.014.944.95TF-3.8714.1316369.7617164358249.275514863420.2483305455788161111121.5WETL