MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, January 12, 2025

[ Saturday, January 11, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, January 13, 2025 ]

DAY 104 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/13/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.66°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.26°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.96°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.435
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 41

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.64 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.60 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 127 in
SWE DAY: 12
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 362.68 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 46.14 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -180

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-13 07:00:02OBSERVATION2025104-18031.6599818.2600624.96002127.207750833330.00999999999999091.648.610.24TT-0.3400240.6599812362.67746937823 46.135385157530.4354477593723116 21151210WETL
2025-01-13 03:00:02OBSERVATION2025104-18031.6599818.2600624.96002127.207750833330.00999999999999091.648.610.24TT-0.3400240.6599812362.67746937823 46.135385157530.4354477593723116 21151210WETL
2025-01-12 11:00:01FORECAST2025104-18024.02619.05821.54212701.638.610.23TT-7.97433.02612362.5533127242246.0442707159760.15964053724857161115127.5WETL
2025-01-12 07:00:02FORECAST2025104-18025.32219.29222.307126.7254683333301.638.610.23TT-6.67834.32212362.3891457927245.92393421950.19644302178949161115127.5WETL
2025-01-12 03:00:03FORECAST2025104-18025.44819.43622.442126.7254683333301.638.610.23TT-6.55234.44812362.3891457927245.92393421950.2002758114966161115127.5WETL
2025-01-11 23:00:01FORECAST2025104-18025.46619.81422.64123.001959841530.0003937011.0203937018.69.620393701TT-6.53433.46612360.1511857537344.2993016869610.20082698997463161114126WETL
2025-01-11 19:00:02FORECAST2025104-18025.32220.1222.72112301.028.69.62TT-6.67833.32212360.1500022377944.2984502752480.19644302178949161114126WETL
2025-01-11 15:00:01FORECAST2025104-18025.44819.88622.667123.00281727220.0007874021.0207874028.69.620787402TT-6.55233.44812360.1517035401144.2996741808170.2002758114966161114126WETL
2025-01-11 11:00:02FORECAST2025104-18026.0618.96822.514123.165619284580.0007874021.0207874028.69.620787402TT-5.9434.0612360.2499962046644.3704138798140.219520776394161114126WETL
2025-01-11 07:00:03FORECAST2025104-18026.99619.6723.333122.8088034481901.018.69.61TT-5.00435.99612360.0345134685244.2154077991210.25091168974258162114128WETL
2025-01-11 03:00:03FORECAST2025104-18026.6920.22823.459122.861155779410.0015748041.0215748048.69.621574804TT-5.3135.6912360.0661415099544.2381423029430.24039572072044161114126WETL
2025-01-10 23:00:01FORECAST2025104-18028.11220.71424.413120.144781032120.0015748040.9215748048.69.521574804TT-3.88829.11212358.4195109491543.0622336606270.29122969764963162113126WETL
2025-01-10 19:00:01FORECAST2025104-18028.5821.1124.845120.290088774540.0015748040.9615748048.69.561574804TT-3.4229.5812358.507882497843.1249450120320.30899195538025162113126WETL
2025-01-10 15:00:01FORECAST2025104-18027.93221.2924.611120.2906687017200.968.69.56TT-4.06828.93212358.5082351257343.1251953383460.28452717151459162113126WETL
2025-01-10 11:00:02FORECAST2025104-18027.64420.94824.296123.2734318667900.958.69.55TT-4.35628.64412360.3150663125844.4172747776610.27395878186429162113126WETL
2025-01-10 07:00:04FORECAST2025104-18026.90621.0223.963123.9796346103701.068.69.66TT-5.09426.90612360.7408534747844.7245192028360.24779373948838161114126WETL
2025-01-10 03:00:04FORECAST2025104-18027.30221.9224.611123.6956781182100.998.69.59TT-4.69827.30212360.5697408612544.6009186047410.26166588810578162113126WETL
2025-01-09 23:00:02FORECAST2025104-18027.0521.7424.395125.108955074090.0019685050.8719685058.69.471968505TT-4.9515.0512361.4201635577645.2168990054180.25279236452992162113126WETL
2025-01-09 19:00:02FORECAST2025104-18027.21222.124.656125.10477215970.0094488240.8894488248.69.489448824TT-4.78817.21212361.4176510401445.2150728878720.25847854916667162113126WETL
2025-01-09 15:00:02FORECAST2025104-18027.48221.99224.737124.94776549690.0169291430.8369291438.69.436929143TT-4.51817.48212361.3233237994545.1465419306540.268100446302162113126WETL
2025-01-09 11:00:02FORECAST2025104-18026.2421.48823.864124.466085121790.0082677210.7882677218.69.388267721TT-5.7617.2412361.0337026354244.9364515640560.22537659324658161113124.5WETL
2025-01-09 07:00:03FORECAST2025104-18026.47421.14623.81124.658267388430.0047244120.7647244128.69.364724412TT-5.52617.47412361.1492990342145.0202458861490.23311948462979161113124.5WETL
2025-01-09 03:00:03FORECAST2025104-18028.00422.44225.223124.979332473110.0035433090.7935433098.69.393543309TT-3.99618.00412361.342291785245.1603184216160.28719934043125162113126WETL
2025-01-08 23:00:02FORECAST2025104-18028.77822.80225.79128.3661424848700.928.499.41TT-3.22212.77812363.3685509218846.6442191821580.31664663790288162113126WETL
2025-01-08 19:00:02FORECAST2025104-18028.5823.46826.024128.26863288910.0244094620.9444094628.499.434409462TT-3.4213.5812363.3104562982446.6013355436890.30899195538025162113126WETL
2025-01-08 15:00:01FORECAST2025104-18027.71621.9224.818128.675904707570.0366141930.9966141938.499.486614193TT-4.2849.71612363.5530067645246.7805120545830.2765826203831162114128WETL
2025-01-08 11:00:02FORECAST2025104-18027.75221.54224.647128.670985174180.0460630170.9360630178.499.426063017TT-4.24810.75212363.5500784364646.7783467525690.27789913757059162113126WETL
2025-01-08 07:00:03FORECAST2025104-18027.64421.23624.44128.642989652610.0704724790.9404724798.59.440472479TT-4.35610.64412363.5334135433246.7660251568320.27395878186429162113126WETL
2025-01-08 03:00:04FORECAST2025104-18027.42822.08224.755129.20862882470.0803150041.0903150048.389.470315004TT-4.5729.42812363.8698917540647.0151297841320.26616175786378162114128WETL
2025-01-07 23:00:02FORECAST2025104-18025.86220.60623.234132.082154401310.1244095161.1844095168.429.604409516TT-6.1385.86212365.5718017013348.2855111570790.21318130086574161114126WETL
2025-01-07 19:00:02FORECAST2025104-18025.91621.223.558131.767662885720.1236221141.1136221148.49.513622114TT-6.0845.91612365.3861418299948.1460779597690.21489959602579161114126WETL
2025-01-07 15:00:02FORECAST2025104-18025.59220.96623.279131.043319117460.1236221141.0336221148.359.383622114TT-6.4085.59212364.9579613513847.8253025938250.204710611227161114126WETL
2025-01-07 11:00:02FORECAST2025104-18024.33221.00222.667129.953050345990.0240157610.8540157618.359.204015761TT-7.6684.33212364.3119849656347.3434537238840.16789603549379161113124.5WETL
2025-01-07 07:00:04FORECAST2025104-18024.65619.56222.109129.979425934050.0248031630.8548031638.369.214803163TT-7.3447.65612364.3276334354547.3550966458490.17693052951037161113124.5WETL
2025-01-07 03:00:04FORECAST2025104-18024.65619.56222.109130.06860750980.0248031630.8948031638.359.244803163TT-7.3446.65612364.3805365367147.3944689910030.17693052951037161113124.5WETL
2025-01-06 23:00:02FORECAST2025104-18025.89820.58823.243133.668079954340.0342519871.1142519878.359.464251987TT-6.1022.89812366.5057955325948.9901259809770.21432594072466161114126WETL
2025-01-06 19:00:02FORECAST2025104-18026.1520.1223.135133.931581882130.0287401731.2087401738.369.568740173TT-5.851.1512366.6606146771349.107436137580.22243771457484161114126WETL
2025-01-06 15:00:02FORECAST2025104-18026.70820.76823.738133.026250388350.0307086781.2307086788.369.590708678TT-5.2924.70812366.1282581463548.7046693424260.24100759911381161114126WETL
2025-01-06 11:00:02FORECAST2025104-18027.64421.52424.584133.1777308967900.88.359.15TT-4.3563.64412366.2174176020348.7720046911210.27395878186429162113126WETL
2025-01-06 07:00:04FORECAST2025104-18028.56221.70425.133132.887639256050.0149606380.9549606388.49.354960638TT-3.4389.56212366.0466433753748.6430742957560.30830010073428162113126WETL
2025-01-06 03:00:03FORECAST2025104-18029.51621.43425.475133.158229675260.0062992161.0262992168.369.386299216TT-2.48412.51612366.2059413606648.7633348481470.34585316956545162114128WETL
2025-01-05 23:00:02FORECAST2025104-18029.4822.0125.745127.816428979060.0011811031.1411811037.999.131181103TT-2.527.4812363.0408524300146.4025853311160.34440517853445162114128WETL
2025-01-05 19:00:03FORECAST2025104-18029.31821.39825.358127.377074140150.0011811031.1611811037.999.151181103TT-2.6826.31812362.7786124148946.2096782100340.33791764722491162114128WETL
2025-01-05 15:00:02FORECAST2025104-18032.68421.84827.266128.145640411990.0035433091.37354330989.373543309TT0.68415.68412363.2371588670746.5472583444520.47976306279999162114128WETL
2025-01-05 11:00:02FORECAST2025104-18032.0923.66627.878129.764033243780.0062992161.06629921689.066299216TT0.09000000000000315.0912364.1998116309247.2600364638530.45399113868956162114128WETL
2025-01-05 07:00:04FORECAST2025104-18032.75623.28828.022129.684064999440.0062992161.0462992168.119.156299216TT0.75616.75612364.1523377814847.224755442550.48289485707804162114128WETL
2025-01-05 03:00:04FORECAST2025104-18032.75623.28828.022129.187007834620.0062992161.0162992167.898.906299216TT0.75616.75612363.8570390960247.0056021603780.48289485707804162114128WETL
2025-01-04 23:00:03FORECAST2025104-18032.73824.45828.598127.501199535470.0066929170.8966929178.129.016692917TT0.73820.73812362.8527294498846.2641582595780.48211180198727162113126WETL
2025-01-04 19:00:02FORECAST2025104-18032.88225.66429.273126.89617894540.0070866180.8870866188.018.897086618TT0.88219.88212362.491242329645.9987535527980.48837792131236162113126WETL
2025-01-04 15:00:03FORECAST2025104-18032.41425.35828.886124.862139232040.0326771830.5026771837.958.452677183TT0.41420.41412361.2718649738245.1091779049790.46803152881094162113126WETL
2025-01-04 11:00:03FORECAST2025104-18033.56625.66429.615128.565698071230.0334645850.4634645857.888.343464585TT1.56619.56612363.4873980337846.7320110683080.51815475436613163112125WETL
2025-01-04 07:00:03FORECAST2025104-18033.0825.4329.255129.533789887380.0334645850.8034645857.738.533464585TT1.0820.0812364.0630995529347.1584730432360.49699820600629162113126WETL
2025-01-04 03:00:04FORECAST2025104-18035.11427.48231.298128.86973956200.667.788.44TT3.11424.11412363.6683568893246.8658464392670.58491704658745163113127.5WETL
2025-01-03 23:00:02FORECAST2025104-18032.9925.91629.453128.8062872013200.577.878.44TT0.9915.9912363.6306029682546.8379078811190.49307947900357162113126WETL
2025-01-03 19:00:03FORECAST2025104-18032.6326.13229.381128.997374752400.497.798.28TT0.6310.6312363.7442809305546.9220573212410.4774150260489162112124WETL
2025-01-03 15:00:03FORECAST2025104-18034.08824.1729.129129.0335831357200.637.788.41TT2.0889.08812363.7658150763846.9380065415910.54082000189014163113127.5WETL
2025-01-03 11:00:03FORECAST2025104-18034.5223.39628.958133.2642872336800.947.778.71TT2.5213.5212366.2683481361748.8104903506230.55948081163541163113127.5WETL
2025-01-03 07:00:05FORECAST2025104-18034.23224.04429.138134.9367362628600.997.78.69TT2.23213.23212367.2502371307649.5555483901850.54705234458864163113127.5WETL
2025-01-03 03:00:05FORECAST2025104-18032.39623.37827.887133.718234487530.1173228981.1673228987.869.027322898TT0.39615.39612366.5352715445449.0124493883450.46725029957452162114128WETL
2025-01-02 23:00:03FORECAST2025104-18028.54424.74626.645133.182935428580.0633858610.6233858618.138.753385861TT-3.4569.54412366.2204803121848.7743185820410.30760892575983162113126WETL
2025-01-02 19:00:03FORECAST2025104-18025.10621.52423.315133.572110407050.0035433090.5235433098.218.733543309TT-6.8944.10612366.4493833927848.9474174971350.18997661758358161113124.5WETL
2025-01-02 15:00:03FORECAST2025104-18026.621.52424.062132.955000257170.0011811030.3911811038.238.621181103TT-5.43.612366.0863093824148.6730053580850.23734903936942161112123WETL
2025-01-02 11:00:04FORECAST2025104-18025.46622.35223.909133.8483584864100.528.258.77TT-6.5342.46612366.6117284120949.0703780498260.20082698997463161113124.5WETL
2025-01-02 07:00:04FORECAST2025104-18026.40222.35224.377133.2757853437100.628.248.86TT-5.5985.40212366.2751128859848.8156033217360.23072147908814161113124.5WETL
2025-01-02 03:00:05FORECAST2025104-18026.52825.30425.916134.5670482561800.768.259.01TT-5.472-2.47212367.0335535471949.3906219118210.23492701643693161113124.5WETL