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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, January 11, 2025

[ Friday, January 10, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, January 12, 2025 ]

DAY 103 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/12/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.35°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.28°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.31°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.281
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 40

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.65 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.63 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.95 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.58 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 127 in
SWE DAY: 11
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 361.49 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 45.81 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -181

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-12 07:00:02OBSERVATION2025103-18126.3499822.2824.31499126.725468333330.649999999999981.639.9511.58TT-5.6500240.3499811361.4925020025 45.8103066152550.2809836726015916 21151210WETL
2025-01-12 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025103-18126.3499822.2824.31499126.725468333330.649999999999981.639.9511.58TT-5.6500240.3499811361.4925020025 45.8103066152550.2809836726015916 21151210WETL
2025-01-11 11:00:02FORECAST2025103-18125.17821.23623.207123.163046992570.0389763991.0189763999.9510.968976399TT-6.82239.17811359.3436495498944.2578587959940.23895842622225161114126WETL
2025-01-11 07:00:03FORECAST2025103-18125.89820.64223.27122.808803448190.0259842661.0059842669.9510.955984266TT-6.10239.89811359.1289050534644.1041911132750.26436262993073162114128WETL
2025-01-11 03:00:03FORECAST2025103-18126.16821.81223.99122.854431864110.0370078941.0170078949.9510.967007894TT-5.83240.16811359.1565761068844.1239771078690.27423125359939162114128WETL
2025-01-10 23:00:01FORECAST2025103-18126.97822.1924.584120.13717976170.0318897810.9218897819.9510.871889781TT-5.02231.97811357.5031124969842.9494156914180.30488328555251162113126WETL
2025-01-10 19:00:01FORECAST2025103-18126.88822.42424.656120.283376535230.0661417680.9561417689.9510.906141768TT-5.11231.88811357.5923648577543.0124170683080.30140335542756162113126WETL
2025-01-10 15:00:01FORECAST2025103-18127.15822.71224.935120.290668701720.0692913760.9592913769.9510.909291376TT-4.84232.15811357.5968158192743.0155601005040.3118960562315162113126WETL
2025-01-10 11:00:02FORECAST2025103-18127.03222.49624.764123.273431866790.0598425520.9498425529.9510.899842552TT-4.96832.03211359.4105260264844.3057689923330.30697976693384162113126WETL
2025-01-10 07:00:04FORECAST2025103-18125.71821.9223.819123.979634610370.059055151.059055159.9511.00905515TT-6.28230.71811359.8379342579844.6125756082550.25788534639711162114128WETL
2025-01-10 03:00:03FORECAST2025103-18126.49222.76624.629123.695678118210.0653543660.9853543669.9510.935354366TT-5.50831.49211359.6661701795344.4891508165370.28630851466912162113126WETL
2025-01-09 23:00:02FORECAST2025103-18126.1522.71224.431125.099745041740.0704724790.8704724799.9510.820472479TT-5.8519.1511360.514277416445.1002441886970.27356773397307162113126WETL
2025-01-09 19:00:02FORECAST2025103-18126.1522.69424.422125.057571038680.0688976750.8788976759.9510.828897675TT-5.8521.1511360.4888468286245.0818595709240.27356773397307162113126WETL
2025-01-09 15:00:01FORECAST2025103-18126.2422.62224.431124.864747053970.0677165720.8177165729.9510.767716572TT-5.7621.2411360.3725407951644.9978261515830.27689324346051162113126WETL
2025-01-09 11:00:02FORECAST2025103-18125.9722.26224.116124.31032770470.0637795620.7837795629.9510.733779562TT-6.0321.9711360.0378130232544.7564185230030.26697650796645162113126WETL
2025-01-09 07:00:03FORECAST2025103-18125.82622.15423.99124.490774424840.0657480670.7557480679.9510.705748067TT-6.17421.82611360.1468085299144.8349551005250.26176182542804162113126WETL
2025-01-09 03:00:03FORECAST2025103-18126.45623.30624.881124.791233523550.094488240.794488249.9510.74448824TT-5.54421.45611360.3281844895644.9657986157550.28495422600832162113126WETL
2025-01-08 23:00:02FORECAST2025103-18126.36622.60424.485128.110585114640.0992126520.9192126529.8410.759212652TT-5.63415.36611362.3227686868446.4173818968250.28158192103948162113126WETL
2025-01-08 19:00:02FORECAST2025103-18126.67222.33424.503128.084943439310.0598425520.9198425529.8410.759842552TT-5.32815.67211362.3074250761946.4061260485260.29312533543238162113126WETL
2025-01-08 15:00:01FORECAST2025103-18125.01620.98423128.479212284490.0543307380.9643307389.8410.804330738TT-6.98413.01611362.5432394827746.5792698278150.2334318972774161113124.5WETL
2025-01-08 11:00:02FORECAST2025103-18125.55621.23623.396128.421081275550.0484252230.8884252239.8410.728425223TT-6.44413.55611362.5084858411846.5537317232860.25212690044462162113126WETL
2025-01-08 07:00:03FORECAST2025103-18126.09621.6523.873128.253432584250.0846457150.8746457159.8510.724645715TT-5.90414.09611362.4082282750846.4800992730560.27158194877645162113126WETL
2025-01-08 03:00:04FORECAST2025103-18125.48421.59623.54128.77056472620.2106300351.0106300359.7310.740630035TT-6.51613.48411362.7173473396546.7073176529170.24958950311875162114128WETL
2025-01-07 23:00:02FORECAST2025103-18126.11422.22624.17131.341218453880.2098426331.0598426339.7710.829842633TT-5.88611.11411364.2479606953347.8407709770660.27224307989685162114128WETL
2025-01-07 19:00:02FORECAST2025103-18126.83422.42424.629131.035135929240.2137796430.9937796439.7510.743779643TT-5.16610.83411364.0662373766947.7054689019020.29932400970365162114128WETL
2025-01-07 15:00:01FORECAST2025103-18125.59222.06423.828130.328132768380.1078740740.9078740749.710.607874074TT-6.40810.59211363.6459442393547.3932969015070.25340067544882162113126WETL
2025-01-07 11:00:02FORECAST2025103-18124.63821.0222.829129.812876669790.0838583130.8338583139.710.533858313TT-7.36210.63811363.33916342347.1661020107350.2208161945989161113124.5WETL
2025-01-07 07:00:04FORECAST2025103-18124.9820.06622.523129.830467193810.0858268180.8258268189.7110.535826818TT-7.0213.9811363.3496433508847.1738539509480.23221346411254161113124.5WETL
2025-01-07 03:00:03FORECAST2025103-18124.42219.77822.1129.916406587580.0858268180.8658268189.710.565826818TT-7.57813.42211363.4008368365347.2117308727190.21378580705715161113124.5WETL
2025-01-06 23:00:02FORECAST2025103-18124.69219.77822.235133.439135934090.0830709111.0830709119.710.783070911TT-7.3087.69211365.4897133386748.7706315407090.22259421767037161114126WETL
2025-01-06 19:00:02FORECAST2025103-18124.85420.15622.505133.734678263740.0807087051.1907087059.710.890708705TT-7.1465.85411365.664113048548.9019725111360.22797689447427161114126WETL
2025-01-06 15:00:02FORECAST2025103-18125.08821.27223.18132.822121667210.0811024061.2111024069.710.911102406TT-6.9129.08811365.125190595248.4967024890.23587935157992161114126WETL
2025-01-06 11:00:02FORECAST2025103-18125.17820.42622.802133.074119881160.0625984590.8025984599.710.502598459TT-6.8227.17811365.2741363658548.6085342122390.23895842622225161113124.5WETL
2025-01-06 07:00:04FORECAST2025103-18125.7920.80423.297132.789601653940.0716535820.9916535829.710.691653582TT-6.2111.7911365.1059624077548.4822753096020.26046635661345162114128WETL
2025-01-06 03:00:03FORECAST2025103-18125.68220.4823.081133.113045749110.0720472831.0220472839.7110.732047283TT-6.31813.68211365.2971353445348.6258142891360.25659982880396162114128WETL
2025-01-05 23:00:02FORECAST2025103-18126.22220.58823.405127.758373741440.0539370371.1439370379.3410.483937037TT-5.7789.22211362.1119230183146.2628303972060.27622656267952162114128WETL
2025-01-05 19:00:02FORECAST2025103-18125.46620.44422.955127.319022421870.0543307381.1643307389.3410.504330738TT-6.5348.46611361.8486478853746.0702161134390.24895727697529161114126WETL
2025-01-05 15:00:02FORECAST2025103-18126.7821.21823.999128.10713655140.0594488511.3694488519.3510.719448851TT-5.2213.7811362.3207051742346.4158680531540.29725118912697162114128WETL
2025-01-05 11:00:02FORECAST2025103-18128.32822.69425.511129.717130062260.0771653961.0571653969.3510.407165396TT-3.67214.32811363.2821121388747.1239129896110.35905616729442162114128WETL
2025-01-05 07:00:04FORECAST2025103-18128.34623.23425.79129.643182120120.0779527981.0379527989.4610.497952798TT-3.65415.34611363.2380402446547.0913354043940.35980110562752162114128WETL
2025-01-05 03:00:04FORECAST2025103-18129.22823.9926.609129.144775833320.0811024061.0111024069.2410.251102406TT-2.77215.22811362.9407813567346.8719058490840.39690383810563162114128WETL
2025-01-04 23:00:02FORECAST2025103-18129.85823.05426.456127.453032356250.106299270.906299279.4510.35629927TT-2.14218.85811361.9289826067846.1289463308460.42401192438242162113126WETL
2025-01-04 19:00:02FORECAST2025103-18129.76822.62226.195126.849701577310.0929134360.9029134369.3410.242913436TT-2.23217.76811361.5670891965545.8646773647580.42011405050656162113126WETL
2025-01-04 15:00:03FORECAST2025103-18129.9842326.492124.633096021920.0476378210.4876378219.289.767637821TT-2.01618.98411360.2327400283544.8969216781910.4294813750422162112124WETL
2025-01-04 11:00:03FORECAST2025103-18130.1124.24227.176128.361279182350.0251968640.4351968649.229.655196864TT-1.8917.1111362.472727786146.5274630073390.43496439442624162112124WETL
2025-01-04 07:00:03FORECAST2025103-18130.30823.70227.005129.310754044720.2960631520.7760631529.079.846063152TT-1.69218.30811363.0398156811846.9449523139910.44360549045692162113126WETL
2025-01-04 03:00:04FORECAST2025103-18131.4624.67428.067128.9652859620.228346580.658346589.139.78834658TT-0.5420.4611362.8336380232446.7929438842990.49428326710232162113126WETL
2025-01-03 23:00:02FORECAST2025103-18130.36226.49228.427128.817356842360.074803190.574803199.229.79480319TT-1.63814.36211362.7452976014146.7278904440070.44596699258196162113126WETL
2025-01-03 19:00:03FORECAST2025103-18130.50626.0628.283129.000670793430.0413386050.4913386059.149.631338605TT-1.4948.50611362.8547642441746.8085079880910.45227348387803162113126WETL
2025-01-03 15:00:02FORECAST2025103-18129.40824.6227.014129.073922380820.0291338740.6391338749.129.759133874TT-2.5926.40811362.8984924650646.8407318485510.40460442230334162113126WETL
2025-01-03 11:00:03FORECAST2025103-18129.04823.70226.375133.318112033680.1303150310.9403150319.1210.060315031TT-2.95210.04811365.4182592702848.7168724285470.3892432362157162113126WETL
2025-01-03 07:00:05FORECAST2025103-18128.99424.36826.681134.090627391170.1307087320.9907087329.0510.040708732TT-3.0069.99411365.8739851301549.0602722122070.38695327418285162114128WETL
2025-01-03 03:00:04FORECAST2025103-18134.37624.58429.48132.509030436720.2629922681.0529922689.2110.262992268TT2.37614.37611364.9400024005248.3578458856680.621116605790251631141210WETL
2025-01-02 23:00:03FORECAST2025103-18134.37626.07830.227132.548028083530.1582678020.6182678029.4210.038267802TT2.37612.37611364.9630768826348.375136164090.62111660579025163113127.5WETL
2025-01-02 19:00:03FORECAST2025103-18133.825.50229.651133.535227930330.2035434170.5935434179.4910.083543417TT1.89.811365.5464316483948.8133260692870.59664106673969163113127.5WETL
2025-01-02 15:00:03FORECAST2025103-18131.60427.21229.408132.936431673980.0996063530.3896063539.589.969606353TT-0.3967.60411365.192766349248.547423231610.50064141122045163112125WETL
2025-01-02 11:00:04FORECAST2025103-18132.1825.77228.976133.848358486410.1145669910.5245669919.610.124566991TT0.188.1811365.7311609615248.952515542030.52605621890317163113127.5WETL
2025-01-02 07:00:04FORECAST2025103-18132.34227.8630.101133.275785343710.094488240.654488249.5610.21448824TT0.34210.34211365.3932638629648.6980742006390.53318952628945163113127.5WETL
2025-01-02 03:00:04FORECAST2025103-18131.92824.1728.049134.567048256180.106299270.786299279.5710.35629927TT-0.0719999999999991.92811366.1545920815749.2723426618620.51494417992736163113127.5WETL
2025-01-01 23:00:03FORECAST2025103-18132.4528.74230.596134.9717369929800.589.7710.35TT0.455.4511366.392682973949.4526568425050.5379392913316163113127.5WETL
2025-01-01 19:00:03FORECAST2025103-18131.89227.80629.849136.701184468720.0177165450.83771654510.1711.007716545TT-0.1085.89211367.4074171341950.2250291048370.51335559593053163113127.5WETL
2025-01-01 15:00:08FORECAST2025103-18132.14426.2429.192138.564858701180.2275591781.24755917810.0511.297559178TT0.1447.14411368.4959289817251.0605863313110.52446982315111631141210WETL
2025-01-01 11:00:02FORECAST2025103-18138.73235.34837.04135.0220931862200.2910.2710.56TT6.73222.73211366.4222919613649.4751048507150.78540891159953164112126WETL
2025-01-01 07:00:04FORECAST2025103-18130.05626.36628.211134.08053885300.1210.4310.55TT-1.944-0.94411365.8680394135649.055783873660.43261293370237162112124WETL
2025-01-01 03:00:04FORECAST2025103-18130.00229.64229.822137.2299754603100.1410.1810.32TT-1.998-5.99811367.7167906230950.4617661535490.43026385684168162112124WETL