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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 10, 2025

[ Thursday, January 9, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, January 11, 2025 ]

DAY 102 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/11/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.43°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.13°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.78°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.881
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 49

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.98 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.23 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.08 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.31 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 123 in
SWE DAY: 10
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 358.15 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 43.95 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -182

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 14.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-11 07:00:02OBSERVATION2025102-18243.4326.1300234.78001122.699885833330.980000000000021.2310.0811.31TT11.4349.4310358.15353191514 43.9453974767930.8811674910390716 51141214WETL
2025-01-11 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025102-18243.4326.1300234.78001122.699885833330.980000000000021.2310.0811.31TT11.4349.4310358.15353191514 43.9453974767930.8811674910390716 51141214WETL
2025-01-10 11:00:01FORECAST2025102-18233.85423.68428.769123.024047141560.8940949711.14409497110.0811.224094971TT1.85439.85410358.3508506538544.0857719440580.545334179980961631141210WETL
2025-01-10 07:00:04FORECAST2025102-18234.46623.9929.228123.727585597390.9964572311.24645723110.0811.326457231TT2.46640.46610358.7785397805544.3908024912050.57222779174761631141210WETL
2025-01-10 03:00:03FORECAST2025102-18234.14224.85429.498123.427647120020.9236225461.17362254610.0811.253622546TT2.14240.14210358.5962971833944.2606972272990.558023631814691631141210WETL
2025-01-09 23:00:02FORECAST2025102-18235.11424.829.957124.788168589590.8035437411.05354374110.0811.133543741TT3.11428.11410359.4218376182644.8515928674890.600339509488921631141210WETL
2025-01-09 19:00:02FORECAST2025102-18236.93224.76430.848124.749282093740.8059059471.05590594710.0811.135905947TT4.93229.93210359.3982815615644.8346776105270.676066019291171631141210WETL
2025-01-09 15:00:01FORECAST2025102-18237.36425.03431.199124.565006585420.74803190.998031910.0811.0780319TT5.36430.36410359.286622367544.7545404812610.693166640823771631141210WETL
2025-01-09 11:00:01FORECAST2025102-18237.6724.5331.1123.984156939140.7188980260.96889802610.0811.048898026TT5.6730.6710358.9343223672444.5021693552240.70503320675238164113129WETL
2025-01-09 07:00:03FORECAST2025102-18237.4924.31430.902124.192116333710.6877956470.93779564710.0811.017795647TT5.4931.4910359.0605147362544.5924852169650.69807837822211163113127.5WETL
2025-01-09 03:00:03FORECAST2025102-18236.19424.5330.362124.364032608730.7039373880.95393738810.0811.033937388TT4.19430.19410359.1647853711844.667181079810.64599206459598163113127.5WETL
2025-01-08 23:00:01FORECAST2025102-18236.17623.95430.065127.630428739220.8192917810.95929178110.0811.039291781TT4.17624.17610361.1372930617546.0921075471910.64524609954404163113127.5WETL
2025-01-08 19:00:02FORECAST2025102-18236.3224.0830.2127.784569885560.8633862931.00338629310.0811.083386293TT4.3224.3210361.2299719004746.1596165890760.651198006382381631141210WETL
2025-01-08 15:00:01FORECAST2025102-18236.42822.17229.3128.197797842460.9137800211.05378002110.0811.133780021TT4.42823.42810361.4782502086646.3407156446960.65563775346391631141210WETL
2025-01-08 11:00:02FORECAST2025102-18235.83422.8229.327128.178617574090.8433075420.98330754210.0811.063307542TT3.83422.83410361.4667319612646.3323060018190.63096989536866163113127.5WETL
2025-01-08 07:00:03FORECAST2025102-18235.67222.87429.273127.824458638130.7925201130.94252011310.0811.022520113TT3.67222.67210361.2539494851546.1770905238250.62414249457124163113127.5WETL
2025-01-08 03:00:03FORECAST2025102-18235.90623.07229.489127.680031866210.8023626380.83236263810.0810.912362638TT3.90622.90610361.1671213760246.1138295663160.63399123331292163113127.5WETL
2025-01-07 23:00:02FORECAST2025102-18235.5122.96429.237130.192876730270.854331170.9243311710.0811.00433117TT3.5119.5110362.6732870322847.2174785519550.61727602121464163113127.5WETL
2025-01-07 19:00:01FORECAST2025102-18235.72623.34229.534129.866386886460.7842523920.83425239210.0810.914252392TT3.72618.72610362.4781363285247.0737258903220.62642273504497163113127.5WETL
2025-01-07 15:00:01FORECAST2025102-18236.24823.6329.939129.749809059320.7984256280.79842562810.0810.878425628TT4.24820.24810362.4084157845447.0224227495340.64822659159726163113127.5WETL
2025-01-07 11:00:02FORECAST2025102-18236.55422.22629.39129.360665217980.74803190.748031910.0810.8280319TT4.55420.55410362.175534857646.8512681148580.66079046100466163113127.5WETL
2025-01-07 07:00:04FORECAST2025102-18239.05622.26230.659129.355257151860.7425200860.75252008610.0810.832520086TT7.05624.05610362.1722968090846.848890587020.75594904899085164113129WETL
2025-01-07 03:00:03FORECAST2025102-18239.90222.38831.145129.428397436220.7759846710.77598467110.0810.855984671TT7.90223.90210362.2160853672746.8810474547050.78453055014312164113129WETL
2025-01-06 23:00:02FORECAST2025102-18236.44622.1929.318132.930957837561.0031501481.00315014810.0811.083150148TT4.44618.44610364.3035487888148.427219684120.656375651974371631141210WETL
2025-01-06 19:00:02FORECAST2025102-18235.0622.29828.679133.245638922751.0992131921.10921319210.0811.189213192TT3.0616.0610364.4901854877648.566727646390.598014502077341631141210WETL
2025-01-06 15:00:02FORECAST2025102-18239.3822.98231.181132.340884699691.1216541491.13165414910.0811.211654149TT7.3819.3810363.9531752499248.1658852018340.767129836645511641141212WETL
2025-01-06 11:00:02FORECAST2025102-18239.3822.69431.037132.6896523730.7433074880.74330748810.0810.823307488TT7.3817.3810364.1603299282948.3203075862230.76712983664551164113129WETL
2025-01-06 07:00:03FORECAST2025102-18240.31623.32431.82132.353466615390.8696855090.91968550910.0810.999685509TT8.31621.31610363.960651618548.1714539533050.79777931996843164113129WETL
2025-01-06 03:00:03FORECAST2025102-18239.03823.0931.064132.681639605880.9507879150.96078791510.0811.040787915TT7.03823.03810364.1555727099548.3167584587740.75531952955279164113129WETL
2025-01-05 23:00:02FORECAST2025102-18236.28423.14429.714127.427723350171.0877958631.0877958639.7210.807795863TT4.28418.28410361.0153592596946.0033653249050.649713443850231631141210WETL
2025-01-05 19:00:02FORECAST2025102-18236.37423.12629.75126.984713422451.1059061091.1059061099.7210.825906109TT4.37418.37410360.7486559256745.8095646902560.653420512637651631141210WETL
2025-01-05 15:00:02FORECAST2025102-18239.27223.70231.487127.739518735751.3129928351.3229928359.7211.042992835TT7.27222.27210361.202888218446.1398831069810.763434798948231641141212WETL
2025-01-05 11:00:02FORECAST2025102-18238.51624.06231.289129.263639828310.9826776960.9926776969.7210.712677696TT6.51620.51610362.1174347031246.8086176550150.736689766130611641141212WETL
2025-01-05 07:00:04FORECAST2025102-18239.00223.8131.406129.1873649540.9641737490.9641737499.8410.804173749TT7.00222.00210362.0717501925946.7750953316620.75405787607372164113129WETL
2025-01-05 03:00:03FORECAST2025102-18238.4824.60231.541128.67072402260.9338587720.9338587729.6210.553858772TT6.4821.4810361.7620771924146.5481883962670.73537880199715164113129WETL
2025-01-04 23:00:02FORECAST2025102-18239.70428.20233.953126.804624729560.7807090830.8007090839.8310.630709083TT7.70423.70410360.6401520914245.7308391483650.77802058600153164113129WETL
2025-01-04 19:00:02FORECAST2025102-18239.4728.00433.737126.275777263850.7921264120.8121264129.7210.532126412TT7.4723.4710360.3212332979645.4998437993690.77018442187038164113129WETL
2025-01-04 15:00:02FORECAST2025102-18240.128.52634.313124.330020570310.4165356580.4365356589.6610.096535658TT8.124.110359.1441600071944.6524008013990.79092859532042164112126WETL
2025-01-04 11:00:03FORECAST2025102-18239.32625.62832.477128.194056041820.4039372260.4439372269.5710.013937226TT7.32622.32610361.4760032046246.3390750125870.76528633145165164112126WETL
2025-01-04 07:00:03FORECAST2025102-18240.53225.55633.044127.40487642770.4673230870.5073230879.429.927323087TT8.53222.53210361.0016121648645.9933657880640.80449423029193164113129WETL
2025-01-04 03:00:03FORECAST2025102-18240.26226.72633.494127.165334687460.4279529870.4679529879.479.937952987TT8.26224.26210360.8574307944545.8885559614330.79607932427045164112126WETL
2025-01-03 23:00:02FORECAST2025102-18237.92228.92233.422128.276266049460.4984254660.5784254669.5210.098425466TT5.92218.92210361.5253665537846.3751241036790.71464408374395164113129WETL
2025-01-03 19:00:02FORECAST2025102-18237.00429.22833.116128.684045357860.448819140.528819149.449.96881914TT5.00413.00410361.7700670652346.5540357193390.67894333726196163113127.5WETL
2025-01-03 15:00:02FORECAST2025102-18236.78828.92232.855128.882366298070.5968507160.6868507169.4210.106850716TT4.78811.78810361.8889840675746.6411086038340.67027987824692163113127.5WETL
2025-01-03 11:00:02FORECAST2025102-18237.9429.76833.854132.443056184850.8078744520.8178744529.4910.307874452TT5.9415.9410364.0138802167648.2111107896150.71532483461744164113129WETL
2025-01-03 07:00:05FORECAST2025102-18237.27429.67833.476132.956378123140.8641736950.8741736959.4210.294173695TT5.27416.27410364.3186310466948.4384856667490.68963685072036163113127.5WETL
2025-01-03 03:00:04FORECAST2025102-18239.09235.02437.058130.776642392820.7917327110.7917327119.5910.381732711TT7.09215.09210363.0218144623147.4747740107280.75720546669693164113129WETL
2025-01-02 23:00:03FORECAST2025102-18239.32635.34837.337131.41068978730.397638010.567638019.6910.25763801TT7.32613.32610363.3997767401747.7546153299780.76528633145165164113129WETL
2025-01-02 19:00:03FORECAST2025102-18238.64234.77236.707132.046340670910.3216537170.5216537179.7410.261653717TT6.64210.64210363.7780843553648.03556485540.74125191188668164113129WETL
2025-01-02 15:00:02FORECAST2025102-18239.6532.28835.969132.200763835320.2893702350.4593702359.7910.249370235TT7.6510.6510363.8698971196748.1038783359010.77622587900101164112126WETL
2025-01-02 11:00:04FORECAST2025102-18239.9232.3636.14133.042224887220.4118112460.5218112469.8710.391811246TT7.9210.9210364.3695580940148.4765366900010.78511683318465164113129WETL
2025-01-02 07:00:04FORECAST2025102-18239.59632.6336.113132.618406120540.5322837520.6722837529.8310.502283752TT7.59612.59610364.1180272888648.2887524188030.77442296703987164113129WETL
2025-01-02 03:00:04FORECAST2025102-18237.61631.58634.601133.402044373380.6460633410.8460633419.7810.626063341TT5.6164.61610364.5828937521848.6361033701050.70295450890683164113129WETL
2025-01-01 23:00:03FORECAST2025102-18240.94632.91836.932133.942285913840.4964569610.66645696110.0610.726456961TT8.9467.94610364.9028350740248.8759198662550.8169809707747164113129WETL
2025-01-01 19:00:02FORECAST2025102-18241.2732.32436.797135.630316586040.704724790.9147247910.4611.37472479TT9.279.2710365.8996946371549.6270914223720.82639850826951164113129WETL
2025-01-01 15:00:07FORECAST2025102-18240.69428.07634.385136.379089968790.7854334951.36543349510.0811.445433495TT8.6949.69410366.3405130711849.9611857913450.809440613201471641141212WETL
2025-01-01 11:00:02FORECAST2025102-18248.30837.25642.782135.232275586220.2535434440.62354344410.3210.943543444TT16.30819.30810365.6650181162349.4497125021330.957786909483411651131210.5WETL
2025-01-01 07:00:04FORECAST2025102-18241.03630.3835.708134.0805388530.0614173560.50141735610.4310.931417356TT9.0364.03610364.9846405685548.9373372804980.8196283123945164113129WETL
2025-01-01 03:00:04FORECAST2025102-18237.47230.36233.917137.229975460310.1173228980.24732289810.4510.697322898TT5.472-0.52810366.8404303975850.3415032613090.69737886504836163112125WETL
2024-12-31 23:00:03FORECAST2025102-18236.7728.41832.594141.3882982310900.1110.4210.53TT4.77-11.2310369.2680707753352.2101841180010.66955370209463163112125WETL
2024-12-31 19:00:03FORECAST2025102-18236.5927.84232.216140.574717508200.110.5310.63TT4.59-13.4110368.7951155169451.8432691821980.66225721186727163112125WETL
2024-12-31 15:00:05FORECAST2025102-18235.34830.50632.927142.123606448390010.9110.91TT3.348-8.65210369.6946842002252.5423418033330.61037249754135163111122.5WETL
2024-12-31 11:00:03FORECAST2025102-18232.66630.88431.775143.1945288885700.071111.07TT0.666-22.33410370.3145917912353.0270235121090.49264276916141162111122WETL
2024-12-31 07:00:03FORECAST2025102-18233.00830.79431.901143.5065733602200.0810.9611.04TT1.008-23.99210370.4949029170153.1684539650470.50783892202706163111122.5WETL
2024-12-31 03:00:04FORECAST2025102-18233.00832.61232.81144.2577082688600.0710.8810.95TT1.008-25.99210370.928351544353.5092739257250.50783892202706163111122.5WETL