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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 1, 2025

[ Tuesday, December 31, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, January 2, 2025 ]

DAY 93 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/02/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.57°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.68°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.13°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.462
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 54

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.39 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.95 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 13.52 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 14.47 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 124 in
SWE DAY: 1
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 350.76 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 43.57 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -191

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-02 07:00:03OBSERVATION202593-19130.5700821.6800626.12507124.207428750.389999999999990.9499999999999913.5214.47TT-1.4299253.570081350.76053250899 43.5670638499230.4616154607273216 2113126WETL
2025-01-02 03:00:03OBSERVATION202593-19130.5700821.6800626.12507124.207428750.389999999999990.9499999999999913.5214.47TT-1.4299253.570081350.76053250899 43.5670638499230.4616154607273216 2113126WETL
2025-01-01 11:00:01FORECAST202593-19124.1718.8621.515124.186859934460.2629922680.82299226813.5214.342992268TT-7.8347.171350.7476204217643.5582456096630.18183136809473161113124.5WETL
2025-01-01 07:00:03FORECAST202593-19123.77417.8720.822124.088002294180.2862206270.84622062713.5214.366220627TT-8.22646.7741350.6855530609543.5158697127640.16886106059724161113124.5WETL
2025-01-01 03:00:03FORECAST202593-19123.19817.6920.444124.218252744640.3137796970.87377969713.5214.393779697TT-8.80246.1981350.7673270077243.5717044808060.15108208380018161113124.5WETL
2024-12-31 23:00:02FORECAST202593-19123.68418.44621.065125.813089723630.3712600430.96126004313.5214.481260043TT-8.31638.6841351.7664083263144.2568186925170.16599805957754161113124.5WETL
2024-12-31 19:00:01FORECAST202593-19123.41418.42820.921125.790655568980.3649608270.95496082713.5214.474960827TT-8.58638.4141351.7523825570944.2471627998070.15759799103893161113124.5WETL
2024-12-31 15:00:01FORECAST202593-19123.52218.21220.867126.09934575050.4307088941.02070889413.5214.540708894TT-8.47838.5221351.9453046305944.3800726538790.16092399560249161114126WETL
2024-12-31 11:00:01FORECAST202593-19124.1719.20221.686126.134686270030.3834647740.97346477413.5214.493464774TT-7.8339.171351.9673817431544.3952952734550.18183136809473161113124.5WETL
2024-12-31 07:00:02FORECAST202593-19123.97219.99421.983126.508672398270.3992128140.99921281413.5214.519212814TT-8.02837.9721352.2008883035444.5564667967710.17527032252715161114126WETL
2024-12-31 03:00:03FORECAST202593-19124.00820.4822.244126.705154188070.4082679371.03826793713.5214.558267937TT-7.99237.0081352.3234772302544.6412005065370.17645196600207161114126WETL
2024-12-30 23:00:02FORECAST202593-19124.6220.22822.424121.511254907380.3937010.89370113.5214.413701TT-7.3832.621349.0622433069842.4149912250170.19730362569515161113124.5WETL
2024-12-30 19:00:01FORECAST202593-19124.96220.46222.712121.469382697980.3866143820.90661438213.5214.426614382TT-7.03833.9621349.0357766574642.3971603300920.20957763943947161113124.5WETL
2024-12-30 15:00:01FORECAST202593-19124.1720.67822.424122.516749768420.5251971341.06519713413.5214.585197134TT-7.8332.171349.6969533682942.8437341306030.18183136809473161114126WETL
2024-12-30 11:00:02FORECAST202593-19123.919.65221.776124.128633636990.5484254931.08842549313.5214.608425493TT-8.130.91350.7110651680143.533285320680.17292209319174161114126WETL
2024-12-30 07:00:03FORECAST202593-19124.820.13822.469123.813803913830.4307088940.96070889413.5214.480708894TT-7.233.81350.5133171554643.3983871194730.20370866521716161113124.5WETL
2024-12-30 03:00:03FORECAST202593-19124.6220.26422.442123.586884218950.3374017570.89740175713.5214.417401757TT-7.3833.621350.3706883025843.3012216889660.19730362569515161113124.5WETL
2024-12-29 23:00:01FORECAST202593-19125.57420.10222.838122.049905095620.47244121.052441213.5214.5724412TT-6.42630.5741349.402463235742.6445374780940.23262660459578161114126WETL
2024-12-29 19:00:02FORECAST202593-19127.48220.49823.99124.096250783440.8881894561.46818945613.5214.988189456TT-4.51832.4821350.6907324367943.5194050799030.31272669795985162114128WETL
2024-12-29 15:00:02FORECAST202593-19127.26620.6623.963124.190145340670.9090556091.47905560913.5214.999055609TT-4.73432.2661350.749682882943.5596540954210.30308773084308162114128WETL
2024-12-29 11:00:02FORECAST202593-19127.1421.14624.143127.997215809940.9755910781.66559107813.5215.185591078TT-4.8632.141353.1280981916245.1994133927880.297527049981341621151210WETL
2024-12-29 07:00:03FORECAST202593-19129.69620.82225.259129.321859310351.1149612321.92496123213.5615.484961232TT-2.30434.6961353.9502724668745.7735073388210.417905706628781621151210WETL
2024-12-29 03:00:04FORECAST202593-19127.46421.0224.242129.864889458091.1279533651.98795336513.615.587953365TT-4.53634.4641354.2865195450646.0093796972110.311918421045121621151210WETL
2024-12-28 23:00:02FORECAST202593-19129.71421.68625.7125.2686757350.7287405511.38874055114.3915.778740551TT-2.28634.7141351.4258165246944.022646655140.41879756703972162114128WETL
2024-12-28 19:00:02FORECAST202593-19129.42621.59625.511125.06265981730.7807090831.35070908314.3815.730709083TT-2.57434.4261351.2968076567843.9341131508840.40458090836654162114128WETL
2024-12-28 15:00:02FORECAST202593-19129.24620.7524.998125.485112976110.7814964851.39149648514.3715.761496485TT-2.75433.2461351.5612786144844.1157067649650.39575777524352162114128WETL
2024-12-28 11:00:02FORECAST202593-19127.1421.224.17130.841787992841.0035438491.47354384914.4215.893543849TT-4.8631.141354.8902537620546.4344753434590.29752704998134162114128WETL
2024-12-28 07:00:04FORECAST202593-19127.0521.81224.431130.569680991350.9248036491.43480364914.4315.864803649TT-4.9531.051354.7222390873346.3159695981710.29358385306023162114128WETL
2024-12-28 03:00:03FORECAST202593-19129.22822.7325.979131.707056189741.1724415781.65244157814.416.052441578TT-2.77235.2281355.4237495503946.8118157532010.394878311221381621151210WETL
2024-12-27 23:00:02FORECAST202593-19131.15422.47826.816127.152746637141.2905518781.68055187814.4816.160551878TT-0.84633.1541352.6025108067244.8343777202260.491109808763631621151210WETL
2024-12-27 19:00:02FORECAST202593-19132.01823.8127.914126.431468584121.2909455791.64094557914.416.040945579TT0.01800000000000135.0181352.1527025514144.5231833494430.534793126609561631151212.5WETL
2024-12-27 15:00:02FORECAST202593-19131.51424.04427.779128.229611614121.6393709641.99937096414.4116.409370964TT-0.48631.5141353.2725408221645.3000007035580.509328338603031631151212.5WETL
2024-12-27 11:00:02FORECAST202593-19130.21823.05426.636131.763666409341.5240165711.83401657114.216.034016571TT-1.78231.2181355.4586126936646.8365300652940.443922722122251621151210WETL
2024-12-27 07:00:04FORECAST202593-19129.73222.29826.015133.764175693561.5330716941.87307169414.4916.363071694TT-2.26830.7321356.687403990447.7119965750540.419689844927411621151210WETL
2024-12-27 03:00:06FORECAST202593-19128.50821.59625.052135.619426948261.6251977281.95519772814.616.555197728TT-3.49227.5081357.8214053203848.5275339393710.360183019520891621151210WETL
2024-12-26 23:00:03FORECAST202593-19128.92221.09225.007114.474034363671.3618117591.66181175914.8216.481811759TT-3.07826.9221344.5743931858239.4448209263940.380012746057521621151210WETL
2024-12-26 19:00:05FORECAST202593-19129.320.98425.142113.227207168291.4039377661.64393776614.6116.253937766TT-2.727.31343.7708542072338.9242137277420.398399335654561621151210WETL
2024-12-26 15:00:02FORECAST202593-19130.09221.57825.835110.372051600690.881890241.1318902414.6115.74189024TT-1.90828.0921341.9211865874937.7385428494050.4376161631165162114128WETL
2024-12-26 11:00:02FORECAST202593-19131.83823.39627.617119.878588028830.9641737491.47417374914.8416.314173749TT-0.16229.8381348.0281769906741.721126451890.525709471947231631141210WETL
2024-12-26 07:00:04FORECAST202593-19131.2823.21627.248122.155169629971.0858273581.61582735814.9416.555827358TT-0.7227.281349.4688956170642.6894322244980.497486130060971621151210WETL
2024-12-26 03:00:04FORECAST202593-19131.02823.97227.5127.678771318231.4303157332.27031573315.3417.610315733TT-0.97228.0281352.9300345904545.061673177810.484735758526541621151210WETL
2024-12-25 23:00:02FORECAST202593-19133.33223.0928.211131.616150548021.7149615562.48496155616.4118.894961556TT1.33226.3321355.3677552398446.7721359735580.600261434571711631151212.5WETL
2024-12-25 19:00:02FORECAST202593-19133.13423.12628.13130.265246734741.685040282.4350402816.3318.76504028TT1.13429.1341354.5341259984646.1834753990750.590528501959371631151212.5WETL
2024-12-25 15:00:03FORECAST202593-19131.0121.25426.132125.682515626711.3803157061.87031570615.9817.850315706TT-0.9927.011351.6847625623344.2006256664160.48382546021581621151210WETL
2024-12-25 11:00:02FORECAST202593-19130.61422.96426.789134.090864014921.3047251141.96472511416.4418.404725114TT-1.38628.6141356.8874763687947.8553500623960.463828600726471621151210WETL
2024-12-25 07:00:04FORECAST202593-19130.1120.82225.466134.703626138881.3342526891.90425268916.5118.414252689TT-1.8928.111357.2623003007148.1245273332230.438516168951791621151210WETL
2024-12-25 03:00:04FORECAST202593-19130.1120.82225.466134.784314358021.318898351.9088983516.3518.25889835TT-1.8930.111357.3116134809448.1600008351870.438516168951791621151210WETL
2024-12-24 23:00:02FORECAST202593-19128.88623.19826.042143.078489767561.7775600152.59756001516.2318.827560015TT-3.11423.8861362.3271215999351.8412173603440.378274981279841621151210WETL
2024-12-24 19:00:02FORECAST202593-19131.3722.51426.942141.026592009881.7681111912.33811119116.218.538111191TT-0.6324.371361.0961530821450.9241598570530.50204113351341631151212.5WETL
2024-12-24 15:00:03FORECAST202593-19129.96624.69227.329143.151957117872.1582688823.10826888215.6218.728268882TT-2.03422.9661362.3710770631651.8741288844990.431325411139171621151210WETL
2024-12-24 11:00:03FORECAST202593-19129.24623.93626.591129.376335570731.0940950791.79409507914.2816.074095079TT-2.75420.2461353.9840253825745.7971560545720.395757775243521621151210WETL
2024-12-24 07:00:04FORECAST202593-19128.00424.11626.06131.666093863951.1700793722.09007937214.4116.500079372TT-3.99619.0041355.3985199643546.7939348887360.336545171153691621151210WETL
2024-12-24 03:00:04FORECAST202593-19126.76220.01223.387125.40343620020.6204727761.13047277614.2515.380472776TT-5.23815.7621351.5101681255344.0805829422530.28113097029444162114128WETL
2024-12-23 23:00:02FORECAST202593-19129.24620.324.773140.92012955251.6952765062.52527650615.0317.555276506TT-2.75414.2461361.032109195950.8766916004990.395757775243521621151210WETL
2024-12-23 19:00:03FORECAST202593-19131.3720.1225.745143.368623369191.8736230592.78362305915.1417.923623059TT-0.6316.371362.5006605716751.9712206765820.50204113351341631151212.5WETL
2024-12-23 15:00:03FORECAST202593-19131.3722.26226.816141.821244179351.8736230592.78362305915.1217.903623059TT-0.6328.371361.5736398308251.2788234632640.50204113351341631151212.5WETL
2024-12-23 11:00:03FORECAST202593-19130.52420.19225.358120.42885716390.0830709110.43307091114.214.633070911TT-1.47625.5241348.3771747894941.9546650218860.45929475598785162112124WETL
2024-12-23 07:00:04FORECAST202593-19131.44220.60626.024118.55146232060.0677165720.45771657213.7714.227716572TT-0.55828.4421347.1844629991441.1592257835390.50568497319652163112125WETL
2024-12-23 03:00:04FORECAST202593-19131.0121.5626.285119.225210287360.0681102730.45811027313.7714.228110273TT-0.9928.011347.6131505553141.4442509736090.4838254602158162112124WETL
2024-12-22 23:00:02FORECAST202593-19124.45821.09222.775118.862686208320.0543307380.58433073814.3514.934330738TT-7.54220.4581347.3825774901241.2908263024450.19164431295309161113124.5WETL
2024-12-22 19:00:04FORECAST202593-19127.66225.2526.456120.704137653570.0543307380.38433073815.0415.424330738TT-4.33826.6621348.5515832724942.0716182866930.32085847491627162112124WETL
2024-12-22 15:00:03FORECAST202593-19126.9623.41425.187122.2552492105700.315.6515.95TT-5.0429.961349.5320393081542.7321265726980.28966500213547162112124WETL
2024-12-22 11:00:03FORECAST202593-19122.40617.61820.012125.3073976794400.3514.915.25TT-9.59414.4061351.4500569900844.0392920557190.12873752803816161112123WETL
2024-12-22 07:00:04FORECAST202593-19127.12225.30426.213134.595257058020.9110241141.41102411414.4615.871024114TT-4.87814.1221357.1960538604348.0768946894560.29673648030224162114128WETL
2024-12-22 03:00:04FORECAST202593-19125.46625.3425.403125.997563820150.1980316030.72803160313.9214.648031603TT-6.53413.4661351.8817107016744.3362383012750.2284597649775161113124.5WETL