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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 30, 2025

[ Monday, September 29, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, October 1, 2025 ]

DAY 365 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/01/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.69°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.08°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.88°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.223
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 15
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 510

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.11 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.50 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.69 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.19 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 272
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 476.92 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 80

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 67.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-01 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253658046.6899835.0799840.8849800.110000000000010.500000000000010.691.19FF14.68998509.68998272476.9182519069 00.2226232546462916 14435267.5DRYH
2025-10-01 00:00:01FORECAST20253658044.7832.57638.67800.2929135440.6829135440.691.372913544FF12.78507.78272476.918251906900.174288321474621614435267.5DRYH
2025-09-30 12:00:01FORECAST20253658045.08632.07238.57900.5295278450.9195278450.691.609527845FF13.086508.086272476.918251906900.181549803566981614435267.5DRYH
2025-09-30 08:00:01FORECAST20253658045.0531.98238.51600.3968506080.7868506080.691.476850608FF13.05508.05272476.918251906900.180685837877311614435267.5DRYH
2025-09-30 04:00:03FORECAST20253658044.9630.8337.89500.3602364150.7502364150.691.440236415FF12.96507.96272476.918251906900.178537199269161614435267.5DRYH
2025-09-30 00:00:02FORECAST20253658045.42831.31638.37200.2562993510.7962993510.691.486299351FF13.428503.428272476.918251906900.189885655034961614435267.5DRYH
2025-09-29 20:00:02FORECAST20253658045.26633.1739.21800.2700788861.3700788860.692.060078886FF13.266504.266272476.918251906900.185908222442611614445290DRYVH
2025-09-29 16:00:01FORECAST20253658045.51833.4439.47900.3035434711.4035434710.692.093543471FF13.518504.518272476.918251906900.192117724936141614445290DRYVH
2025-09-29 12:00:01FORECAST20253658044.58235.36639.97400.3287403351.4287403350.692.118740335FF12.582503.582272476.918251906900.16968924262621614445290DRYVH
2025-09-29 08:00:01FORECAST20253658044.29435.63639.96500.3692915381.1892915380.691.879291538FF12.294503.294272476.918251906900.163139648649651614445290DRYVH
2025-09-29 04:00:03FORECAST20253658044.58234.93439.75800.3566931061.1566931060.691.846693106FF12.582502.582272476.918251906900.16968924262621614445290DRYVH
2025-09-29 00:00:02FORECAST20253658044.22234.1639.19100.4405514191.1305514190.691.820551419FF12.222496.222272476.918251906900.161528202980551614345280DRYVH
2025-09-28 20:00:02FORECAST20253658044.34835.67240.0100.4744097051.2044097050.691.894409705FF12.348496.348272476.918251906900.16435504800821614345280DRYVH
2025-09-28 16:00:02FORECAST20253658043.80835.67239.7400.5181105161.1381105160.691.828110516FF11.808495.808272476.918251906900.152463975430071614345280DRYVH
2025-09-28 12:00:02FORECAST20253658044.63635.6940.16300.4090553391.0790553390.691.769055339FF12.636495.636272476.918251906900.170935767811161614345280DRYVH
2025-09-28 08:00:01FORECAST20253658045.10436.5940.84700.3692915380.9992915380.691.689291538FF13.104498.104272476.918251906900.18198275211711614345280DRYVH
2025-09-28 04:00:03FORECAST20253658044.90637.9441.42300.3803151660.8703151660.691.560315166FF12.906497.906272476.918251906900.177255755306791614335260DRYH
2025-09-28 00:00:02FORECAST20253658044.31237.3140.81100.3271655310.8871655310.691.577165531FF12.312491.312272476.918251906900.163544132780441614335260DRYH
2025-09-27 20:00:02FORECAST20253658044.47438.15641.31500.4220474720.9920474720.691.682047472FF12.474488.474272476.918251906900.167213688799221614345280DRYVH
2025-09-27 16:00:02FORECAST20253658044.92438.22841.57600.4059057310.9659057310.691.655905731FF12.924488.924272476.918251906900.177682257951361614335260DRYH
2025-09-27 12:00:02FORECAST20253658045.35636.57240.96400.2708662880.7308662880.691.420866288FF13.356490.356272476.918251906900.188111503498181614335260DRYH
2025-09-27 08:00:01FORECAST20253658046.05836.5941.32400.2889765340.6989765340.691.388976534FF14.058494.058272476.918251906900.205843589241771614335260DRYH
2025-09-27 04:00:03FORECAST20253658045.87837.00441.44100.3094489860.6994489860.71.399448986FF13.878491.878272476.918251906900.201205067422711614335260DRYH
2025-09-27 00:00:03FORECAST20253658045.4135.65440.53200.5531499051.1731499050.691.863149905FF13.41490.41272476.918251906900.189441157632561614345280DRYVH
2025-09-26 20:00:01FORECAST20253658045.26635.72640.49600.5988192211.1888192210.691.878819221FF13.266491.266272476.918251906900.185908222442611614345280DRYVH
2025-09-26 16:00:02FORECAST20253658045.6835.97840.82900.6149609621.2249609620.691.914960962FF13.68490.68272476.918251906900.196175607432861614345280DRYVH
2025-09-26 12:00:02FORECAST20253658045.46434.71840.09100.5110238981.1910238980.691.881023898FF13.464487.464272476.918251906900.190776567254261614345280DRYVH
2025-09-26 08:00:02FORECAST20253658044.97833.85439.41600.5110238981.2210238980.691.911023898FF12.978486.978272476.918251906900.178965637598941614345280DRYVH
2025-09-26 04:00:03FORECAST20253658045.19433.85439.52400.570866451.310866450.692.00086645FF13.194486.194272476.918251906900.1841571436741614345280DRYVH
2025-09-26 00:00:02FORECAST20253658045.55434.19639.87500.2137796430.8737796430.691.563779643FF13.554483.554272476.918251906900.193015019616621614335260DRYH
2025-09-25 20:00:02FORECAST20253658045.03234.3439.68600.2035434170.8935434170.691.583543417FF13.032484.032272476.918251906900.180254821133261614335260DRYH
2025-09-25 16:00:01FORECAST20253658045.15834.84440.00100.4535435521.0735435520.691.763543552FF13.158483.158272476.918251906900.183285458137091614345280DRYVH
2025-09-25 12:00:01FORECAST20253658044.52833.47639.00200.43307111.18307110.691.8730711FF12.528480.528272476.918251906900.168448548783861614345280DRYVH
2025-09-25 08:00:01FORECAST20253658046.00434.21440.10900.43307111.18307110.691.8730711FF14.004484.004272476.918251906900.204445427784221614345280DRYVH
2025-09-25 04:00:03FORECAST20253658046.90434.23240.56800.2232284670.9532284670.691.643228467FF14.904485.904272476.918251906900.22847738188441614335260DRYH
2025-09-25 00:00:02FORECAST20253658046.54437.0441.79200.3566931061.1066931060.691.796693106FF14.544483.544272476.918251906900.218679695629511614345280DRYVH
2025-09-24 20:00:02FORECAST20253658046.02237.09441.55800.3566931061.1066931060.691.796693106FF14.022487.022272476.918251906900.204910853613831614345280DRYVH
2025-09-24 16:00:01FORECAST20253658048.4738.82243.64600.3952758041.1752758040.691.865275804FF16.47491.47272476.918251906900.273836439857481624345290DRYVH
2025-09-24 12:00:02FORECAST20253658047.04834.75440.90100.2893702351.0493702350.691.739370235FF15.048488.048272476.918251906900.232464335368491614345280DRYVH
2025-09-24 10:22:48FORECAST20253658046.50835.641.05400.2893702351.0493702350.691.739370235FF14.508485.508272476.918251906900.217713383505091614345280DRYVH
2025-09-24 08:00:02FORECAST20253658046.50835.641.05400.2893702351.0493702350.691.739370235FF14.508486.508272476.918251906900.217713383505091614345280DRYVH
2025-09-24 04:00:03FORECAST20253658045.80635.43840.62200.3232285211.0032285210.691.693228521FF13.806489.806272476.918251906900.199367311006311614345280DRYVH
2025-09-24 00:00:03FORECAST20253658047.28237.11242.19700.094488240.554488240.691.24448824FF15.282479.282272476.918251906900.239024738886541614335260DRYH
2025-09-23 20:00:02FORECAST20253658045.71634.93440.32500.094488240.554488240.691.24448824FF13.716476.716272476.918251906900.19708435259311614335260DRYH
2025-09-23 16:00:03FORECAST20253658044.13234.14239.13700.4425199240.9925199240.691.682519924FF12.132472.132272476.918251906900.159528502631581614345280DRYVH
2025-09-23 12:00:02FORECAST20253658042.47636.28439.3800.3322836440.9422836440.691.632283644FF10.476473.476272476.918251906900.125622322427211614335260DRYH
2025-09-23 08:00:02FORECAST20253658043.55635.81639.68600.3314962420.9414962420.691.631496242FF11.556478.556272476.918251906900.147114694982871614335260DRYH
2025-09-23 04:00:03FORECAST20253658044.63636.19440.41500.1740158420.7540158420.691.444015842FF12.636480.636272476.918251906900.170935767811161614335260DRYH
2025-09-23 00:00:03FORECAST20253658049.5541.03645.29300.2728347930.3928347930.681.072834793FF17.55490.55272476.918251906900.307516623748521624325245DRYM
2025-09-22 20:00:03FORECAST20253658049.9140.40645.15800.2728347930.3928347930.681.072834793FF17.91490.91272476.918251906900.319134649979481624325245DRYM
2025-09-22 16:00:02FORECAST20253658049.76640.96445.36500.2740158960.3940158960.681.074015896FF17.766494.766272476.918251906900.314465261616771624325245DRYM
2025-09-22 12:00:02FORECAST20253658047.98438.53443.25900.3236222220.7636222220.831.593622222FF15.984480.984272476.918251906900.259298335533251624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-22 08:00:03FORECAST20253658047.98438.53443.25900.3236222220.7636222220.831.593622222FF15.984479.984272476.918251906900.259298335533251624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-22 04:00:06FORECAST20253658049.2839.36244.32100.2157481480.6557481480.831.485748148FF17.28487.28272476.918251906900.298927149954981624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-22 00:00:02FORECAST20253658048.27241.97245.12200.4862207350.4962207350.761.256220735FF16.272495.272272476.918251906900.267865219406091624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-21 20:00:02FORECAST20253658048.27241.97245.12200.4862207350.4962207350.781.276220735FF16.272491.272272476.918251906900.267865219406091624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-21 16:00:03FORECAST20253658049.0141.14445.07700.2736221950.4336221950.81.233622195FF17.01498.01272476.918251906900.290448244429031624325245DRYM
2025-09-21 12:00:03FORECAST20253658050.8133.38642.098000.320.871.19FF18.81490.81272476.918251906900.348946311488071624325245DRYM
2025-09-21 08:00:03FORECAST20253658050.8133.38642.098000.320.831.15FF18.81494.81272476.918251906900.348946311488071624325245DRYM
2025-09-21 04:00:04FORECAST20253658069.94438.35454.149000.191.151.34FF37.944529.944272476.918251906900.912249792335916544251130DRYVH
2025-09-21 00:00:03FORECAST20253658044.20437.16640.6850000.750.75FF12.204488.204272476.918251906900.161126964448731614315220DRYL
2025-09-20 20:00:02FORECAST20253658044.13237.16640.6490000.720.72FF12.132485.132272476.918251906900.159528502631581614315220DRYL
2025-09-20 16:00:03FORECAST20253658043.48433.838.6420000.680.68FF11.484476.484272476.918251906900.145609661853211614315220DRYL
2025-09-20 12:00:03FORECAST20253658036.98633.15235.06900.027559070.237559070.730.96755907FF4.986466.986272476.918251906900.0496382652312741614325240DRYM
2025-09-20 08:00:02FORECAST20253658036.98633.15235.06900.027559070.237559070.750.98755907FF4.986472.986272476.918251906900.0496382652312741614325240DRYM
2025-09-20 04:00:04FORECAST20253658036.91434.4335.672000.20.740.94FF4.914461.914272476.918251906900.0489672705761921614325240DRYM