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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, September 20, 2025

[ Friday, September 19, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, September 21, 2025 ]

DAY 355 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/21/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 64.58°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.33°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 56.45°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.825
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 33
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 572

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 262
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 472.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 70

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 30.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-09-21 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253557064.5848.3299656.454980001.11.1FF32.58571.58262472.23247964746 00.8245377010544316 44415230DRYL
2025-09-21 00:00:01FORECAST20253557059.77445.57252.6730001.11.1FF27.774566.774262472.2324796474600.690142731887511634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-20 12:00:02FORECAST20253557059.57645.96852.7720001.11.1FF27.576566.576262472.2324796474600.683772305376481634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-20 08:00:01FORECAST20253557060.04446.09453.0690001.11.1FF28.044567.044262472.2324796474600.698738257837911634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-20 04:00:02FORECAST20253557059.68445.96852.8260001.11.1FF27.684566.684262472.2324796474600.687253999796331634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-20 00:00:02FORECAST20253557060.45845.21252.8350001.11.1FF28.458561.458262472.2324796474600.7117051844261644415230DRYL
2025-09-19 20:00:01FORECAST20253557060.67445.03252.8530001.11.1FF28.674562.674262472.2324796474600.718364501644321644415230DRYL
2025-09-19 16:00:01FORECAST20253557059.945.26652.5830001.11.1FF27.9561.9262472.2324796474600.694167297226421634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-19 12:00:01FORECAST20253557059.57645.15852.3670001.11.1FF27.576561.576262472.2324796474600.683772305376481634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-19 08:00:02FORECAST20253557059.43244.72652.0790001.11.1FF27.432561.432262472.2324796474600.679104646684431634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-19 04:00:49FORECAST20253557059.64846.07652.8620001.11.1FF27.648561.648262472.2324796474600.686095268346011634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-19 00:00:02FORECAST20253557059.73846.29253.0150001.11.1FF27.738563.738262472.2324796474600.688988632880981634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-18 20:00:02FORECAST20253557059.59446.34652.970001.11.1FF27.594563.594262472.2324796474600.684353730660721634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-18 16:00:02FORECAST20253557060.00846.38253.1950001.11.1FF28.008565.008262472.2324796474600.697598401278741634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-18 12:00:02FORECAST20253557059.4546.36452.9070001.11.1FF27.45564.45262472.2324796474600.679689673233661634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-18 08:00:02FORECAST20253557059.28846.16652.7270001.11.1FF27.288564.288262472.2324796474600.674408528423151634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-18 04:00:03FORECAST20253557058.92845.84252.38500.0074803190.0074803191.11.107480319FF26.928563.928262472.2324796474600.662547907571531634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-18 00:00:02FORECAST20253557058.6445.53652.08800.0496063260.0496063261.11.149606326FF26.64557.64262472.2324796474600.652941085594881634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-17 20:00:01FORECAST20253557058.76645.69852.23200.0413386050.0413386051.11.141338605FF26.766557.766262472.2324796474600.657156611209561634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-17 16:00:02FORECAST20253557058.87446.20252.53800.0342519870.0342519871.11.134251987FF26.874558.874262472.2324796474600.660754443956471634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-17 12:00:02FORECAST20253557058.22645.87852.05200.0161417410.0161417411.11.116141741FF26.226559.226262472.2324796474600.638958822824471634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-17 08:00:02FORECAST20253557058.31646.05852.18700.0161417410.0161417411.11.116141741FF26.316560.316262472.2324796474600.642015045058321634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-17 04:00:03FORECAST20253557058.22645.96852.09700.0696850770.0696850771.11.169685077FF26.226559.226262472.2324796474600.638958822824471634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-17 00:00:02FORECAST20253557057.43445.62651.5300.0732283860.0732283861.11.173228386FF25.434555.434262472.2324796474600.611701004593671634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-16 20:00:02FORECAST20253557057.52445.78851.65600.090551230.090551231.11.19055123FF25.524555.524262472.2324796474600.614829207943361634425255DRYH
2025-09-16 16:00:02FORECAST20253557056.98445.33851.16100.0232283590.0232283591.11.123228359FF24.984554.984262472.2324796474600.595954953795041634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-16 12:00:01FORECAST20253557056.69645.84251.26900.0814961070.0814961071.11.181496107FF24.696556.696262472.2324796474600.585793509940381634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-16 08:00:02FORECAST20253557057.18245.53651.35900.0814961070.0814961071.11.181496107FF25.182559.182262472.2324796474600.60290402419961634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-16 04:00:03FORECAST20253557057.27246.07651.67400.2748032980.2748032981.11.374803298FF25.272560.272262472.2324796474600.606052070854411634425255DRYH
2025-09-16 00:00:02FORECAST20253557054.37444.649.48700.1055118680.1055118681.11.205511868FF22.374552.374262472.2324796474600.502344709788431634425255DRYH
2025-09-15 20:00:02FORECAST20253557054.9544.94249.94600.1031496620.1031496621.11.203149662FF22.95551.95262472.2324796474600.523198848852691634425255DRYH
2025-09-15 16:00:02FORECAST20253557055.445.19450.29700.0248031630.0248031631.11.124803163FF23.4552.4262472.2324796474600.539449937248511634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-15 12:00:02FORECAST20253557055.70644.40250.05400.0566929440.0566929441.11.156692944FF23.706556.706262472.2324796474600.550464818469651634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-15 08:00:02FORECAST20253557057.09245.30251.19700.0566929440.0566929441.11.156692944FF25.092555.092262472.2324796474600.599749260276211634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-15 04:00:03FORECAST20253557056.71445.53651.12500.0244094620.0244094621.11.124409462FF24.714556.714262472.2324796474600.586430360911321634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-15 00:00:02FORECAST20253557058.38848.09253.2400.0444882130.0444882131.171.214488213FF26.388552.388262472.2324796474600.644453500562581634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-14 20:00:02FORECAST20253557057.00247.01252.00700.0444882130.0444882131.371.414488213FF25.002548.002262472.2324796474600.596587975767781634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-14 16:00:02FORECAST20253557056.89446.95851.92600.0484252230.0484252231.371.418425223FF24.894547.894262472.2324796474600.592786106015721634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-14 12:00:03FORECAST20253557057.07447.31852.19600.0681102730.0681102731.391.458110273FF25.074543.074262472.2324796474600.599117518704581634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-14 08:00:02FORECAST20253557054.98645.39250.18900.0685039740.0685039741.251.318503974FF22.986533.986262472.2324796474600.524500717988921634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-14 04:00:03FORECAST20253557055.5846.05850.81900.062992160.062992161.331.39299216FF23.58534.58262472.2324796474600.545933495339711634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-14 00:00:03FORECAST20253557055.8545.33850.594000.031.231.26FF23.85522.85262472.2324796474600.55563539355381634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-13 20:00:02FORECAST20253557056.15643.53849.847000.031.241.27FF24.156520.156262472.2324796474600.566590412313491634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-13 16:00:02FORECAST20253557056.96645.44651.206000.031.141.17FF24.966520.966262472.2324796474600.595321680503531634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-13 12:00:03FORECAST20253557045.03239.45242.24200.0149606380.1549606381.291.444960638FF13.032502.032262472.2324796474600.199743278942761614425245DRYM
2025-09-13 08:00:02FORECAST20253557046.36438.37242.36800.0149606380.1949606381.281.474960638FF14.364504.364262472.2324796474600.235287966442791614425245DRYM
2025-09-13 04:00:04FORECAST20253557049.22640.67644.95100.0102362260.1902362261.241.430236226FF17.226513.226262472.2324796474600.322178871910711624425250DRYMH
2025-09-13 00:00:03FORECAST20253557050.88240.42445.653000.061.171.23FF18.882507.882262472.2324796474600.377812711656731624415225DRYL
2025-09-12 20:00:02FORECAST20253557052.01641.21646.616000.041.131.17FF20.016506.016262472.2324796474600.417516160281451624415225DRYL
2025-09-12 16:00:02FORECAST20253557053.5142.85448.182000.011.261.27FF21.51508.51262472.2324796474600.471069303951624415225DRYL
2025-09-12 12:00:03FORECAST20253557054.540.74847.62400.07874020.17874021.241.4187402FF22.5505.5262472.2324796474600.506909081289071634425255DRYH
2025-09-12 08:00:02FORECAST20253557054.540.74847.62400.07874020.17874021.221.3987402FF22.5505.5262472.2324796474600.506909081289071634425255DRYH
2025-09-12 04:00:04FORECAST20253557053.88840.80247.34500.0791339010.1791339011.211.389133901FF21.888504.888262472.2324796474600.484741732039411624425250DRYMH
2025-09-12 00:00:03FORECAST20253557056.51641.28848.902000.011.211.22FF24.516518.516262472.2324796474600.579412859364361634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 20:00:03FORECAST20253557056.42641.23448.83000.011.221.23FF24.426522.426262472.2324796474600.576214582519761634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 16:00:03FORECAST20253557058.83844.83451.836000.021.231.25FF26.838528.838262472.2324796474600.659556773168141634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 12:00:02FORECAST20253557060.1742.31451.2420001.131.13FF28.17531.17262472.2324796474600.702712442298661644415230DRYL
2025-09-11 08:00:03FORECAST20253557059.2742.31450.7920001.131.13FF27.27528.27262472.2324796474600.673819543946331634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 04:00:05FORECAST20253557061.71847.06654.3920001.131.13FF29.718532.718262472.2324796474600.749465245066591644415230DRYL
2025-09-11 00:00:03FORECAST20253557048.1145.60846.8590001.191.19FF16.11511.11262472.2324796474600.286729511735631624415225DRYL
2025-09-10 20:00:03FORECAST20253557048.1145.60846.8590001.191.19FF16.11507.11262472.2324796474600.286729511735631624415225DRYL
2025-09-10 16:00:02FORECAST20253557050.91846.2248.5690001.221.22FF18.918511.918262472.2324796474600.379055893404181624415225DRYL
2025-09-10 12:00:03FORECAST20253557053.09649.47851.2870001.521.52FF21.096533.096262472.2324796474600.45613435324231624415225DRYL
2025-09-10 08:00:03FORECAST20253557053.09649.47851.2870001.531.53FF21.096530.096262472.2324796474600.45613435324231624415225DRYL
2025-09-10 04:00:05FORECAST20253557050.7249.44250.0810001.561.56FF18.72524.72262472.2324796474600.37223420560461624415225DRYL