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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, September 19, 2025

[ Thursday, September 18, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, September 20, 2025 ]

DAY 354 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/20/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 68.55°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 54.46°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 61.51°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.912
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 37
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 587

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 261
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 471.75 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 69

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 65.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-09-20 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253546968.5500854.4600461.505060001.11.1FF36.55008586.55008261471.75403460025 00.9119014684792816 54415165DRYH
2025-09-20 00:00:01FORECAST20253546963.37445.7754.5720001.11.1FF31.374581.374261471.7540346002500.805501071686211644415230DRYL
2025-09-19 12:00:01FORECAST20253546963.69845.78854.7430001.11.1FF31.698581.698261471.7540346002500.81384593651191644415230DRYL
2025-09-19 08:00:02FORECAST20253546964.14845.55454.8510001.11.1FF32.148582.148261471.7540346002500.825062284982521644415230DRYL
2025-09-19 04:00:45FORECAST20253546964.4946.05855.2740001.11.1FF32.49582.49261471.7540346002500.833294193943621644415230DRYL
2025-09-19 00:00:02FORECAST20253546965.33646.52655.9310001.11.1FF33.336584.336261471.7540346002500.852567276108221654415232.5DRYL
2025-09-18 20:00:02FORECAST20253546965.42646.90456.1650001.11.1FF33.426584.426261471.7540346002500.854526238951161654415232.5DRYL
2025-09-18 16:00:02FORECAST20253546965.87649.157.4880001.11.1FF33.876584.876261471.7540346002500.864058420458731654415232.5DRYL
2025-09-18 12:00:02FORECAST20253546965.51648.95657.2360001.11.1FF33.516584.516261471.7540346002500.856467667834941654415232.5DRYL
2025-09-18 08:00:02FORECAST20253546965.40850.0957.7490001.11.1FF33.408585.408261471.7540346002500.854135849603631654415232.5DRYL
2025-09-18 04:00:02FORECAST20253546964.74249.6457.1910001.11.1FF32.742584.742261471.7540346002500.839197559380251644415230DRYL
2025-09-18 00:00:02FORECAST20253546964.43649.47856.9570001.11.1FF32.436579.436261471.7540346002500.832011263882371644415230DRYL
2025-09-17 20:00:01FORECAST20253546964.47249.42456.9480001.11.1FF32.472579.472261471.7540346002500.83286725310291644415230DRYL
2025-09-17 16:00:02FORECAST20253546964.56249.53257.0470001.11.1FF32.562579.562261471.7540346002500.834994930267211644415230DRYL
2025-09-17 12:00:01FORECAST20253546965.31849.4657.3890001.11.1FF33.318581.318261471.7540346002500.852173378130361654415232.5DRYL
2025-09-17 08:00:02FORECAST20253546965.37249.6457.5060001.11.1FF33.372582.372261471.7540346002500.853352966313831654415232.5DRYL
2025-09-17 04:00:02FORECAST20253546964.52649.22656.8760001.11.1FF32.526580.526261471.7540346002500.834145967666421644415230DRYL
2025-09-17 00:00:02FORECAST20253546963.80649.02856.4170001.11.1FF31.806577.806261471.7540346002500.816577611631161644415230DRYL
2025-09-16 20:00:02FORECAST20253546963.51848.30855.9130001.11.1FF31.518577.518261471.7540346002500.809237585308241644415230DRYL
2025-09-16 16:00:02FORECAST20253546963.84248.66856.2550001.11.1FF31.842577.842261471.7540346002500.81748260122871644415230DRYL
2025-09-16 12:00:01FORECAST20253546963.62649.60456.61500.0019685050.0019685051.11.101968505FF31.626579.626261471.7540346002500.812010918697711644415230DRYL
2025-09-16 08:00:02FORECAST20253546964.2249.40656.8130001.11.1FF32.22582.22261471.7540346002500.826816360234671644415230DRYL
2025-09-16 04:00:03FORECAST20253546963.53648.97456.2550001.11.1FF31.536582.536261471.7540346002500.809701539197451644415230DRYL
2025-09-16 00:00:02FORECAST20253546961.55648.36254.9590001.11.1FF29.556577.556261471.7540346002500.754613470621771644415230DRYL
2025-09-15 20:00:02FORECAST20253546961.95248.25455.1030001.11.1FF29.952576.952261471.7540346002500.766270404718141644415230DRYL
2025-09-15 16:00:02FORECAST20253546962.13248.84855.490001.11.1FF30.132577.132261471.7540346002500.771465950427671644415230DRYL
2025-09-15 12:00:02FORECAST20253546963.6265056.8130001.11.1FF31.626580.626261471.7540346002500.812010918697711644415230DRYL
2025-09-15 08:00:02FORECAST20253546963.48249.53256.5070001.11.1FF31.482578.482261471.7540346002500.808307602027951644415230DRYL
2025-09-15 04:00:03FORECAST20253546963.73449.76656.750001.11.1FF31.734579.734261471.7540346002500.814759277238751644415230DRYL
2025-09-15 00:00:02FORECAST20253546963.96849.26256.6150001.171.17FF31.968573.968261471.7540346002500.820628099976461644415230DRYL
2025-09-14 20:00:02FORECAST20253546964.3147.49855.9040001.371.37FF32.31571.31261471.7540346002500.828993182587231644415230DRYL
2025-09-14 16:00:02FORECAST20253546965.0350.23457.6320001.371.37FF33.03571.03261471.7540346002500.845775470328171644415230DRYL
2025-09-14 12:00:02FORECAST20253546964.52648.4756.498000.021.371.39FF32.526565.526261471.7540346002500.834145967666421644415230DRYL
2025-09-14 08:00:02FORECAST20253546961.41246.52653.969000.021.231.25FF29.412559.412261471.7540346002500.750298513471241644415230DRYL
2025-09-14 04:00:03FORECAST20253546961.80845.78853.798000.021.311.33FF29.808558.808261471.7540346002500.762067342470411644415230DRYL
2025-09-14 00:00:03FORECAST20253546958.1942.67450.43200.0074803190.0274803191.231.257480319FF26.19547.19261471.7540346002500.644322104924471634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-13 20:00:02FORECAST20253546958.58642.58450.58500.0074803190.0274803191.241.267480319FF26.586543.586261471.7540346002500.658204616422821634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-13 16:00:02FORECAST20253546958.51442.3550.43200.0074803190.0274803191.141.167480319FF26.514543.514261471.7540346002500.655695712937981634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-13 12:00:02FORECAST20253546955.74240.24447.99300.1437008650.1637008651.271.433700865FF23.742536.742261471.7540346002500.55488835448821634425255DRYH
2025-09-13 08:00:02FORECAST20253546958.04640.98249.51400.1795276560.1995276561.261.459527656FF26.046538.046261471.7540346002500.639224916665351634425255DRYH
2025-09-13 04:00:04FORECAST20253546958.92841.66650.29700.1791339550.1991339551.221.419133955FF26.928543.928261471.7540346002500.670025166198531634425255DRYH
2025-09-13 00:00:03FORECAST20253546955.4943.71849.60400.0649606650.0749606651.161.234960665FF23.49537.49261471.7540346002500.545435795074661634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-12 20:00:02FORECAST20253546953.31240.44246.87700.0385826980.0485826981.121.168582698FF21.312534.312261471.7540346002500.463235710828281624415225DRYL
2025-09-12 16:00:02FORECAST20253546954.53640.58647.56100.0102362260.0202362261.251.270236226FF22.536534.536261471.7540346002500.509462503633621634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-12 12:00:03FORECAST20253546952.46637.18444.82500.0917323330.1317323331.211.341732333FF20.466531.466261471.7540346002500.431535524725931624425250DRYMH
2025-09-12 08:00:02FORECAST20253546952.89838.19245.54500.0917323330.1317323331.191.321732333FF20.898530.898261471.7540346002500.447680911965721624425250DRYMH
2025-09-12 04:00:04FORECAST20253546952.75438.15645.45500.0921260340.1321260341.181.312126034FF20.754530.754261471.7540346002500.442288116950821624425250DRYMH
2025-09-12 00:00:03FORECAST20253546952.68235.22243.952000.051.171.22FF20.682541.682261471.7540346002500.439595660457961624415225DRYL
2025-09-11 20:00:02FORECAST20253546952.6135.22243.916000.051.181.23FF20.61545.61261471.7540346002500.436905994866581624415225DRYL
2025-09-11 16:00:02FORECAST20253546956.46237.5847.021000.061.191.25FF24.462550.462261471.7540346002500.581706405692781634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 12:00:02FORECAST20253546958.24442.33250.288000.011.121.13FF26.244551.244261471.7540346002500.646226977786771634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 08:00:03FORECAST20253546957.2942.38649.838000.011.121.13FF25.29549.29261471.7540346002500.612076809909261634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 04:00:05FORECAST20253546959.30644.29451.8000.011.121.13FF27.306551.306261471.7540346002500.682894992461661634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 00:00:03FORECAST20253546957.30839.16448.236000.061.131.19FF25.308543.308261471.7540346002500.612730203914371634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-10 20:00:03FORECAST20253546957.30839.16448.236000.061.131.19FF25.308539.308261471.7540346002500.612730203914371634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-10 16:00:02FORECAST20253546957.00239.30848.155000.061.161.22FF25.002541.002261471.7540346002500.601580538153131634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-10 12:00:03FORECAST20253546967.96442.85455.409000.091.431.52FF35.964559.964261471.7540346002500.902668066487421654415232.5DRYL
2025-09-10 08:00:03FORECAST20253546967.96442.85455.409000.091.441.53FF35.964556.964261471.7540346002500.902668066487421654415232.5DRYL
2025-09-10 04:00:05FORECAST20253546965.67841.77453.726000.091.471.56FF33.678553.678261471.7540346002500.859918110242491654415232.5DRYL
2025-09-10 00:00:03FORECAST2025354694138.13839.56900.0885827250.3985827251.171.568582725FF9522261471.7540346002500.103900515532161614425245DRYM
2025-09-09 20:00:03FORECAST20253546940.47838.13839.30800.0972441470.4372441471.161.597244147FF8.478524.478261471.7540346002500.0952343215215151614425245DRYM
2025-09-09 16:00:02FORECAST20253546946.1339.63242.88100.0976378480.4476378481.141.587637848FF14.13539.13261471.7540346002500.219755873761271614425245DRYM
2025-09-09 12:00:03FORECAST20253546948.45244.83446.6430001.181.18FF16.452554.452261471.7540346002500.290163047923511624415225DRYL
2025-09-09 08:00:02FORECAST20253546948.45244.83446.6430001.191.19FF16.452549.452261471.7540346002500.290163047923511624415225DRYL
2025-09-09 04:00:05FORECAST20253546941.6339.9240.7750001.191.19FF9.63538.63261471.7540346002500.115101535160441614415222.5DRYL