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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, September 17, 2025

[ Tuesday, September 16, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, September 18, 2025 ]

DAY 352 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/18/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.05°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.33°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 57.69°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.862
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 35
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 602

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 259
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 470.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 67

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 35.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-09-18 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253526767.0499648.3299657.689960001.11.1FF35.04996602.04996259470.791672921 00.8621013599093916 54515235DRYL
2025-09-18 00:00:02FORECAST20253526761.4348.70455.0670001.11.1FF29.43596.43259470.79167292100.721543819789171644415230DRYL
2025-09-17 12:00:01FORECAST20253526760.92648.61454.770001.11.1FF28.926595.926259470.79167292100.706227473921671644415230DRYL
2025-09-17 08:00:02FORECAST20253526762.34849.11855.7330001.11.1FF30.348597.348259470.79167292100.748401857205181644415230DRYL
2025-09-17 04:00:02FORECAST20253526762.02449.11855.5710001.11.1FF30.024597.024259470.79167292100.739081027220671644415230DRYL
2025-09-17 00:00:02FORECAST20253526763.0549.02856.0390001.11.1FF31.05594.05259470.79167292100.76797866345921644415230DRYL
2025-09-16 20:00:02FORECAST20253526762.76249.4656.1110001.11.1FF30.762593.762259470.79167292100.760051246337781644415230DRYL
2025-09-16 16:00:02FORECAST20253526763.0549.85656.4530001.11.1FF31.05594.05259470.79167292100.76797866345921644415230DRYL
2025-09-16 12:00:01FORECAST20253526763.5950.77457.1820001.11.1FF31.59594.59259470.79167292100.782442539259311644415230DRYL
2025-09-16 08:00:02FORECAST20253526764.14851.06257.6050001.11.1FF32.148596.148259470.79167292100.796827803410491644415230DRYL
2025-09-16 04:00:03FORECAST20253526764.63451.3557.9920001.11.1FF32.634596.634259470.79167292100.808882806795951644415230DRYL
2025-09-16 00:00:02FORECAST20253526764.74251.76458.2530001.11.1FF32.742593.742259470.79167292100.811501037867551644415230DRYL
2025-09-15 20:00:02FORECAST20253526764.43651.40457.920001.11.1FF32.436594.436259470.79167292100.804025279993151644415230DRYL
2025-09-15 16:00:01FORECAST20253526764.07651.06257.5690001.11.1FF32.076594.076259470.79167292100.795004129173611644415230DRYL
2025-09-15 12:00:01FORECAST20253526764.00451.60257.8030001.11.1FF32.004594.004259470.79167292100.793170779106951644415230DRYL
2025-09-15 08:00:02FORECAST20253526764.09450.8157.4520001.11.1FF32.094593.094259470.79167292100.795460955787171644415230DRYL
2025-09-15 04:00:03FORECAST20253526764.20251.36857.7850001.11.1FF32.202594.202259470.79167292100.798189194975811644415230DRYL
2025-09-15 00:00:01FORECAST20253526763.3250.0956.7050001.171.17FF31.32590.32259470.79167292100.775276475533181644415230DRYL
2025-09-14 20:00:02FORECAST20253526762.81649.4656.1380001.371.37FF30.816587.816259470.79167292100.761548778420741644415230DRYL
2025-09-14 16:00:02FORECAST20253526762.47449.80256.1380001.371.37FF30.474587.474259470.79167292100.751978605643341644415230DRYL
2025-09-14 12:00:02FORECAST20253526760.0844.79852.43900.0208661530.0208661531.371.390866153FF28.08585.08259470.79167292100.679679153020671634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-14 08:00:02FORECAST20253526757.61444.31250.96300.0224409570.0224409571.231.252440957FF25.614582.614259470.79167292100.597336513783641634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-14 04:00:03FORECAST20253526758.02842.69250.3600.0224409570.0224409571.311.332440957FF26.028583.028259470.79167292100.611584174993741634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-14 00:00:02FORECAST20253526759.14442.49450.81900.0003937010.0003937011.231.230393701FF27.144581.144259470.79167292100.649202008748131634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-13 20:00:02FORECAST20253526757.18242.15249.66700.0003937010.0003937011.241.240393701FF25.182576.182259470.79167292100.582330602392631634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-13 16:00:01FORECAST20253526756.53441.32448.92900.0003937010.0003937011.141.140393701FF24.534575.534259470.79167292100.55960191789091634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-13 12:00:02FORECAST20253526753.70837.68845.69800.0181102460.0181102461.271.288110246FF21.708570.708259470.79167292100.459161984249761624415225DRYL
2025-09-13 08:00:02FORECAST20253526752.75437.47245.11300.0185039470.0185039471.261.278503947FF20.754569.754259470.79167292100.425522284771421624415225DRYL
2025-09-13 04:00:03FORECAST20253526754.01438.98446.49900.0188976480.0188976481.221.238897648FF22.014574.014259470.79167292100.470026265924731624415225DRYL
2025-09-13 00:00:02FORECAST20253526750.73840.33445.53600.0055118140.0055118141.161.165511814FF18.738570.738259470.79167292100.356467155811221624415225DRYL
2025-09-12 20:00:02FORECAST20253526751.2639.68645.47300.0062992160.0062992161.121.126299216FF19.26570.26259470.79167292100.374000474138071624415225DRYL
2025-09-12 16:00:02FORECAST20253526749.8240.02844.92400.0062992160.0162992161.241.256299216FF17.82568.82259470.79167292100.326375330779411624415225DRYL
2025-09-12 12:00:02FORECAST20253526754.33839.75847.04800.0291338740.0491338741.191.239133874FF22.338572.338259470.79167292100.481553821492081624415225DRYL
2025-09-12 08:00:02FORECAST20253526753.07838.42645.75200.0291338740.0391338741.181.219133874FF21.078572.078259470.79167292100.436898988674411624415225DRYL
2025-09-12 04:00:04FORECAST20253526753.38438.37245.87800.0291338740.0391338741.171.209133874FF21.384572.384259470.79167292100.447691949110761624415225DRYL
2025-09-12 00:00:02FORECAST20253526754.87840.35247.61500.0405512030.0505512031.161.210551203FF22.878576.878259470.79167292100.500795966132131634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 20:00:02FORECAST20253526754.87840.35247.61500.0405512030.0605512031.161.220551203FF22.878580.878259470.79167292100.500795966132131634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 16:00:02FORECAST20253526755.36440.85648.1100.0405512030.0705512031.161.230551203FF23.364582.364259470.79167292100.518113589125651634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 12:00:01FORECAST20253526754.51843.44848.98300.0059055150.0159055151.111.125905515FF22.518578.518259470.79167292100.487965310645321624415225DRYL
2025-09-11 08:00:02FORECAST20253526754.4143.41248.91100.0059055150.0159055151.111.125905515FF22.41578.41259470.79167292100.484117937691131624415225DRYL
2025-09-11 04:00:04FORECAST20253526754.4143.10648.75800.0059055150.0059055151.121.125905515FF22.41577.41259470.79167292100.484117937691131624415225DRYL
2025-09-11 00:00:03FORECAST20253526755.29238.94847.1200.0641732630.0741732631.121.194173263FF23.292577.292259470.79167292100.515549381723021634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-10 20:00:02FORECAST20253526753.2438.37245.80600.0641732630.0741732631.121.194173263FF21.24573.24259470.79167292100.442607582913681624415225DRYL
2025-09-10 16:00:02FORECAST20253526753.43838.19245.81500.0637795620.0837795621.141.223779562FF21.438575.438259470.79167292100.449600850347781624415225DRYL
2025-09-10 12:00:03FORECAST20253526754.542.02648.26300.0858268180.4858268181.031.515826818FF22.5580.5259470.79167292100.487323994353271624425250DRYMH
2025-09-10 08:00:02FORECAST20253526757.34442.02649.68500.0858268180.4858268181.041.525826818FF25.344578.344259470.79167292100.587973131098271634425255DRYH
2025-09-10 04:00:04FORECAST20253526757.41641.64849.53200.0858268180.4958268181.061.555826818FF25.416578.416259470.79167292100.590475169931391634435282.5DRYVH
2025-09-10 00:00:03FORECAST20253526758.40643.82651.1160001.171.17FF26.406574.406259470.79167292100.624463623002541634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-09 20:00:03FORECAST20253526758.42443.5250.9720001.161.16FF26.424578.424259470.79167292100.625073611930291634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-09 16:00:02FORECAST20253526759.75644.70852.23200.007874020.007874021.141.14787402FF27.756584.756259470.79167292100.669252866436611634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-09 12:00:03FORECAST20253526758.15445.19451.674000.031.151.18FF26.154585.154259470.79167292100.615891752885671634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-09 08:00:02FORECAST20253526758.15445.19451.674000.031.161.19FF26.154580.154259470.79167292100.615891752885671634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-09 04:00:04FORECAST20253526757.39844.6951.044000.031.161.19FF25.398582.398259470.79167292100.58985000128671634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-09 00:00:03FORECAST20253526756.51643.95250.234000.311.431.74FF24.516574.516259470.79167292100.558967391268611634425255DRYH
2025-09-08 20:00:02FORECAST20253526756.96643.93450.4500.0003937010.3103937011.421.730393701FF24.966570.966259470.79167292100.574780983701021634425255DRYH
2025-09-08 16:00:02FORECAST20253526757.81244.70851.26000.311.41.71FF25.812568.812259470.79167292100.604168013340641634425255DRYH
2025-09-08 12:00:02FORECAST20253526760.2642.47651.368000.092.12.19FF28.26563.26259470.79167292100.685411540991341634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-08 08:00:05FORECAST20253526760.2642.47651.368000.092.082.17FF28.26568.26259470.79167292100.685411540991341634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-08 04:00:04FORECAST20253526755.59842.18848.893000.011.961.97FF23.598562.598259470.79167292100.526441541449891634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-08 00:00:03FORECAST20253526746.59841.4544.024000.083.043.12FF14.598543.598259470.79167292100.230297586757781614415222.5DRYL
2025-09-07 20:00:03FORECAST20253526747.5745.71646.643000.083.023.1FF15.57543.57259470.79167292100.257522966690061624415225DRYL
2025-09-07 16:00:02FORECAST20253526747.67845.89646.787000.113.413.52FF15.678550.678259470.79167292100.260647812747131624425250DRYMH
2025-09-07 12:00:03FORECAST20253526751.24247.46249.352000.012.482.49FF19.242548.242259470.79167292100.373391275316761624415225DRYL
2025-09-07 08:00:02FORECAST20253526751.24247.46249.352000.012.452.46FF19.242544.242259470.79167292100.373391275316761624415225DRYL
2025-09-07 04:00:04FORECAST20253526749.29847.06648.182000.072.542.61FF17.298536.298259470.79167292100.309740004433821624415225DRYL