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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 15, 2025

[ Sunday, September 14, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, September 16, 2025 ]

DAY 350 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/16/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.23°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.22°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.600
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 28
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 608

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.20 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.90 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 257
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 469.82 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 65

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 55.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-09-16 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253506560.2000634.2300247.21504000.20.91.1FF28.20006608.20006257469.82196942943 00.5997247407533916 33525255DRYH
2025-09-16 00:00:02FORECAST20253506556.46236.17646.319000.20.91.1FF24.462604.462257469.8219694294300.474191468888261623525250DRYMH
2025-09-15 12:00:01FORECAST20253506557.2936.10446.697000.20.91.1FF25.29605.29257469.8219694294300.502218907661741633525255DRYH
2025-09-15 08:00:01FORECAST20253506557.41635.70846.562000.20.91.1FF25.416605.416257469.8219694294300.50648642348651633525255DRYH
2025-09-15 04:00:02FORECAST20253506557.99234.77246.382000.20.91.1FF25.992605.992257469.8219694294300.525978220815571633525255DRYH
2025-09-15 00:00:01FORECAST20253506558.11834.80846.463000.270.91.17FF26.118602.118257469.8219694294300.530235394277251633525255DRYH
2025-09-14 20:00:01FORECAST20253506557.90235.0646.481000.470.91.37FF25.902600.902257469.8219694294300.522935536772931633525255DRYH
2025-09-14 16:00:01FORECAST20253506557.90235.4246.661000.470.91.37FF25.902600.902257469.8219694294300.522935536772931633525255DRYH
2025-09-14 12:00:02FORECAST20253506557.88437.14847.516000.470.91.37FF25.884600.884257469.8219694294300.522326833776731633525255DRYH
2025-09-14 08:00:02FORECAST20253506558.0137.95847.984000.330.91.23FF26.01601.01257469.8219694294300.526586581525441633525255DRYH
2025-09-14 04:00:02FORECAST20253506558.47837.72448.101000.410.91.31FF26.478601.478257469.8219694294300.542378069712441633525255DRYH
2025-09-14 00:00:02FORECAST20253506558.51438.35448.434000.330.91.23FF26.514596.514257469.8219694294300.543590353276241633425250DRYMH
2025-09-13 20:00:02FORECAST20253506558.08237.05847.57000.340.91.24FF26.082595.082257469.8219694294300.529019390212491633425250DRYMH
2025-09-13 16:00:01FORECAST20253506558.15437.00447.579000.240.91.14FF26.154595.154257469.8219694294300.531451116424751633425250DRYMH
2025-09-13 12:00:02FORECAST20253506557.3837.3147.34500.0007874020.3707874020.91.270787402FF25.38594.38257469.8219694294300.505267187637751633425250DRYMH
2025-09-13 08:00:01FORECAST20253506557.3837.27447.32700.0007874020.3607874020.91.260787402FF25.38594.38257469.8219694294300.505267187637751633425250DRYMH
2025-09-13 04:00:03FORECAST20253506558.02838.4848.25400.0007874020.3207874020.91.220787402FF26.028597.028257469.8219694294300.527194880234021633425250DRYMH
2025-09-13 00:00:02FORECAST20253506557.99237.54447.76800.0007874020.2807874020.881.160787402FF25.992595.992257469.8219694294300.525978220815571633425250DRYMH
2025-09-12 20:00:02FORECAST20253506557.39838.06647.73200.0027559070.2427559070.881.122755907FF25.398595.398257469.8219694294300.505876812424421633425250DRYMH
2025-09-12 16:00:02FORECAST20253506557.16437.50847.33600.0066929170.3666929170.881.246692917FF25.164595.164257469.8219694294300.497951137910391623425245DRYM
2025-09-12 12:00:02FORECAST20253506556.2139.52447.86700.019685050.329685050.881.20968505FF24.21595.21257469.8219694294300.465680300938921623425245DRYM
2025-09-12 08:00:02FORECAST20253506556.58838.2147.39900.0149606380.3149606380.881.194960638FF24.588595.588257469.8219694294300.478451719241911623425245DRYM
2025-09-12 04:00:04FORECAST20253506555.63438.6647.14700.0110236280.3010236280.881.181023628FF23.634595.634257469.8219694294300.446291238374991623425245DRYM
2025-09-12 00:00:02FORECAST20253506554.6838.2146.44500.0059055150.3059055150.861.165905515FF22.68598.68257469.8219694294300.414480382486791623425245DRYM
2025-09-11 20:00:02FORECAST20253506554.6839.54247.11100.0240157610.3240157610.861.184015761FF22.68602.68257469.8219694294300.414480382486791623525250DRYMH
2025-09-11 16:00:02FORECAST20253506555.07640.17247.62400.0334645850.3334645850.861.193464585FF23.076605.076257469.8219694294300.427629303583841623525250DRYMH
2025-09-11 12:00:01FORECAST20253506554.5937.59846.09400.0129921330.2629921330.861.122992133FF22.59600.59257469.8219694294300.411504752775781623525250DRYMH
2025-09-11 08:00:02FORECAST20253506554.6837.70646.19300.0129921330.2529921330.871.122992133FF22.68600.68257469.8219694294300.414480382486791623525250DRYMH
2025-09-11 04:00:04FORECAST20253506555.50837.2246.36400.0015748040.2615748040.861.121574804FF23.508600.508257469.8219694294300.442065315153511623525250DRYMH
2025-09-11 00:00:02FORECAST20253506555.72438.2146.96700.0062992160.2462992160.881.126299216FF23.724598.724257469.8219694294300.449313522690091623425245DRYM
2025-09-10 20:00:02FORECAST20253506554.46439.54247.00300.0062992160.2462992160.881.126299216FF22.464598.464257469.8219694294300.407347443312591623425245DRYM
2025-09-10 16:00:02FORECAST20253506554.66240.147.38100.0212598540.2812598540.881.161259854FF22.662599.662257469.8219694294300.413884858022271623525250DRYMH
2025-09-10 12:00:02FORECAST20253506554.33842.85448.59600.3984254120.5484254120.881.428425412FF22.338605.338257469.8219694294300.403200542078311623535275DRYVH
2025-09-10 08:00:02FORECAST20253506552.4339.95646.19300.3984254120.5484254120.891.438425412FF20.43600.43257469.8219694294300.341978981526731623535275DRYVH
2025-09-10 04:00:04FORECAST20253506552.73639.75846.24700.4066931330.5566931330.911.466693133FF20.736599.736257469.8219694294300.351569255274241623535275DRYVH
2025-09-10 00:00:02FORECAST20253506554.28436.12245.203000.111.061.17FF22.284596.284257469.8219694294300.401426595787661623425245DRYM
2025-09-09 20:00:02FORECAST20253506556.0341.19848.614000.111.051.16FF24.03600.03257469.8219694294300.459610263746041623525250DRYMH
2025-09-09 16:00:02FORECAST20253506555.97642.04449.01000.111.031.14FF23.976604.976257469.8219694294300.457791021830931623525250DRYMH
2025-09-09 12:00:02FORECAST20253506555.97645.2350.60300.0303149770.1703149771.011.180314977FF23.976606.976257469.8219694294300.457791021830931623525250DRYMH
2025-09-09 08:00:02FORECAST20253506555.47244.5285000.0303149770.1703149771.021.190314977FF23.472603.472257469.8219694294300.440859096903911623525250DRYMH
2025-09-09 04:00:04FORECAST20253506555.4944.74450.11700.0303149770.1803149771.011.190314977FF23.49605.49257469.8219694294300.441462138167881623525250DRYMH
2025-09-09 00:00:02FORECAST20253506557.70443.86250.78300.2925198430.5525198431.171.722519843FF25.704597.704257469.8219694294300.516237172826271633435275DRYVH
2025-09-08 20:00:02FORECAST20253506554.46443.08848.77600.2897639360.5497639361.161.709763936FF22.464594.464257469.8219694294300.407347443312591623435267.5DRYH
2025-09-08 16:00:02FORECAST20253506553.88842.78248.33500.2917324410.5517324411.141.691732441FF21.888590.888257469.8219694294300.388481886202381623435267.5DRYH
2025-09-08 12:00:02FORECAST20253506553.18642.4447.81300.0889764260.7489764261.442.188976426FF21.186585.186257469.8219694294300.365844244227311623435267.5DRYH
2025-09-08 08:00:04FORECAST20253506553.640.20846.90400.0889764260.7789764261.392.168976426FF21.6589.6257469.8219694294300.379143831957821623435267.5DRYH
2025-09-08 04:00:04FORECAST20253506554.17639.8347.00300.0062992160.6162992161.351.966299216FF22.176590.176257469.8219694294300.397884824606351623435267.5DRYH
2025-09-08 00:00:02FORECAST20253506550.46839.86645.16700.0834646120.8534646122.273.123464612FF18.468579.468257469.8219694294300.283100037442511623435267.5DRYH
2025-09-07 20:00:02FORECAST20253506549.6439.9244.7800.0834646120.8534646122.253.103464612FF17.64578.64257469.8219694294300.25979908889311623435267.5DRYH
2025-09-07 16:00:02FORECAST20253506552.9741.79247.38100.0649606650.7149606652.763.474960665TF20.97585.97257469.8219694294300.358967638396551623435267.5DRYH
2025-09-07 12:00:02FORECAST20253506552.26836.6844.47400.0133858340.5933858341.92.493385834FF20.268577.268257469.8219694294300.33694225779321623435267.5DRYH
2025-09-07 08:00:02FORECAST20253506552.26836.6844.47400.0133858340.5933858341.872.463385834FF20.268573.268257469.8219694294300.33694225779321623435267.5DRYH
2025-09-07 04:00:04FORECAST20253506551.11636.55443.83500.0653543660.6253543661.982.605354366FF19.116571.116257469.8219694294300.302007539374591623435267.5DRYH
2025-09-07 00:00:02FORECAST20253506551.47642.3546.91300.0952756420.2352756421.441.675275642FF19.476570.476257469.8219694294300.312750663334321623425245DRYM
2025-09-06 20:00:02FORECAST20253506551.87242.42247.14700.1015748580.2515748581.481.731574858FF19.872568.872257469.8219694294300.324754128939041623425245DRYM
2025-09-06 16:00:02FORECAST20253506550.34241.01845.6800.0350393890.2650393891.431.695039389FF18.342563.342257469.8219694294300.279490539421631623425245DRYM
2025-09-06 12:00:02FORECAST20253506549.02841.48645.25700.2980316570.8380316571.342.178031657FF17.028569.028257469.8219694294300.243234909271771613435260DRYH
2025-09-06 08:00:03FORECAST20253506549.02841.48645.25700.2980316570.8380316571.252.088031657FF17.028568.028257469.8219694294300.243234909271771613435260DRYH
2025-09-06 04:00:04FORECAST20253506555.38241.82848.60500.2582678560.8382678561.612.448267856FF23.382567.382257469.8219694294300.437845974578211623435267.5DRYH
2025-09-06 00:00:02FORECAST20253506549.22641.12645.176000.161.751.91FF17.226539.226257469.8219694294300.248530739574191613425240DRYM
2025-09-05 20:00:02FORECAST20253506549.22641.68445.455000.141.671.81FF17.226550.226257469.8219694294300.248530739574191613425240DRYM
2025-09-05 16:00:02FORECAST20253506549.22641.10845.167000.132.082.21FF17.226550.226257469.8219694294300.248530739574191613425240DRYM
2025-09-05 12:00:03FORECAST20253506545.57240.4643.01600.0704724790.7204724791.432.150472479FF13.572559.572257469.8219694294300.161213216430741613435260DRYH
2025-09-05 08:00:02FORECAST20253506542.20638.33640.27100.0704724790.7204724791.422.140472479FF10.206548.206257469.8219694294300.101048268857061613435260DRYH
2025-09-05 04:00:05FORECAST20253506535.52834.95235.24000.611.31.91FF3.528518.528257469.8219694294300.0325673096482751613435260DRYH