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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, September 11, 2025

[ Wednesday, September 10, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, September 12, 2025 ]

DAY 346 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/12/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.01°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.53°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.27°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.291
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 22
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 665

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.02 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.92 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.94 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 253
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 467.86 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 61

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 25.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-09-12 04:00:03OBSERVATION20253466154.0100446.5299650.2700.0199999999999820.0199999999999820.920.93999999999998FF22.01004665.01004253467.86031254069 00.2911975461528416 23515225DRYL
2025-09-12 00:00:01FORECAST20253466155.83243.30449.56800.0003937010.0003937010.920.920393701FF23.832666.832253467.8603125406900.347050577058931623515225DRYL
2025-09-11 12:00:01FORECAST20253466158.67645.4152.0430000.920.92FF26.676669.676253467.8603125406900.440828468868071623515225DRYL
2025-09-11 08:00:02FORECAST20253466159.4545.1452.29500.0145669370.0145669370.920.934566937FF27.45670.45253467.8603125406900.467184833545751623515225DRYL
2025-09-11 04:00:03FORECAST20253466159.6345.3252.47500.0043307110.0043307110.920.924330711FF27.63670.63253467.8603125406900.473339223782121623515225DRYL
2025-09-11 00:00:02FORECAST20253466160.20645.39252.79900.0106299270.0206299270.920.940629927FF28.206669.206253467.8603125406900.493068837094031623515225DRYL
2025-09-10 20:00:02FORECAST20253466159.79245.91452.85300.0086614220.0186614220.920.938661422FF27.792668.792253467.8603125406900.478883663538611623515225DRYL
2025-09-10 16:00:01FORECAST20253466159.97246.29253.13200.007874020.017874020.920.93787402FF27.972668.972253467.8603125406900.485048901640281623515225DRYL
2025-09-10 12:00:02FORECAST20253466159.93645.46452.700.0094488240.0194488240.920.939448824FF27.936668.936253467.8603125406900.483815520769691623515225DRYL
2025-09-10 08:00:02FORECAST20253466160.06246.47253.26700.0232283590.0332283590.920.953228359FF28.062670.062253467.8603125406900.488132953884031623515225DRYL
2025-09-10 04:00:03FORECAST20253466159.64846.29252.9700.0220472560.0520472560.920.972047256FF27.648669.648253467.8603125406900.473955037385461623515225DRYL
2025-09-10 00:00:02FORECAST20253466159.84645.9552.89800.031496080.201496080.921.12149608FF27.846667.846253467.8603125406900.480732771809761623525250DRYMH
2025-09-09 20:00:02FORECAST20253466159.0945.21252.15100.0440945120.1940945120.921.114094512FF27.09666.09253467.8603125406900.454901016467611623525250DRYMH
2025-09-09 16:00:01FORECAST20253466159.39646.41852.90700.0318897810.1718897810.921.091889781FF27.396667.396253467.8603125406900.465339977779971623525250DRYMH
2025-09-09 12:00:02FORECAST20253466159.7246.02252.87100.0263779670.1463779670.921.066377967FF27.72667.72253467.8603125406900.476418899527081623525250DRYMH
2025-09-09 08:00:01FORECAST20253466158.51445.9552.23200.0133858340.1633858340.921.083385834FF26.514667.514253467.8603125406900.43534109526151623525250DRYMH
2025-09-09 04:00:03FORECAST20253466159.41446.6753.04200.0137795350.1537795350.921.073779535FF27.414668.414253467.8603125406900.465954848912951623525250DRYMH
2025-09-09 00:00:02FORECAST20253466158.60446.34652.47500.0263779670.2963779670.931.226377967FF26.604661.604253467.8603125406900.438388168852881623525250DRYMH
2025-09-08 20:00:02FORECAST20253466158.26245.7752.01600.0188976480.2788976480.941.218897648FF26.262663.262253467.8603125406900.426830250617581623525250DRYMH
2025-09-08 16:00:01FORECAST20253466157.18245.26651.22400.0181102460.2581102460.941.198110246FF25.182659.182253467.8603125406900.390786495943751623525250DRYMH
2025-09-08 12:00:01FORECAST20253466156.10245.8650.98100.0381889970.5481889970.941.488188997FF24.102656.102253467.8603125406900.355657614042871623535275DRYVH
2025-09-08 08:00:02FORECAST20253466156.5746.11251.34100.0228346580.4928346580.951.442834658FF24.57657.57253467.8603125406900.370749887043391623535275DRYVH
2025-09-08 04:00:03FORECAST20253466157.6545.9551.800.0212598540.40125985411.401259854FF25.65656.65253467.8603125406900.406309864467891623525250DRYMH
2025-09-08 00:00:02FORECAST20253466156.42644.88850.65700.3566931061.0866931061.062.146693106FF24.426654.426253467.8603125406900.3660836400364516235452100DRYVH
2025-09-07 20:00:02FORECAST20253466155.27445.51850.39600.362204921.072204921.062.13220492FF23.274651.274253467.8603125406900.3295146592080216235452100DRYVH
2025-09-07 16:00:01FORECAST20253466156.53445.0550.79200.3311025411.5211025411.142.661102541FF24.534653.534253467.8603125406900.3695815115856616235552125DRYVH
2025-09-07 12:00:02FORECAST20253466157.4744.97851.22400.0251968640.7951968641.111.905196864FF25.47654.47253467.8603125406900.400320448548351623535275DRYVH
2025-09-07 08:00:01FORECAST20253466157.2944.7851.03500.0251968640.7051968641.171.875196864FF25.29656.29253467.8603125406900.394354378241371623535275DRYVH
2025-09-07 04:00:03FORECAST20253466157.75845.78851.77300.0515748310.6815748311.271.951574831FF25.758656.758253467.8603125406900.409914160428721623535275DRYVH
2025-09-07 00:00:02FORECAST20253466156.82245.33851.0800.1503937820.7003937820.661.360393782FF24.822647.822253467.8603125406900.378961346756931623535275DRYVH
2025-09-06 20:00:01FORECAST20253466157.21844.85251.03500.1511811840.8011811840.621.421181184FF25.218648.218253467.8603125406900.391974785384621623535275DRYVH
2025-09-06 16:00:01FORECAST20253466157.9245.48251.70100.0925197350.7525197350.591.342519735FF25.92647.92253467.8603125406900.415334811611041623535275DRYVH
2025-09-06 12:00:02FORECAST20253466159.39646.02252.70900.0027559070.5627559070.771.332755907FF27.396647.396253467.8603125406900.465339977779971623535275DRYVH
2025-09-06 08:00:02FORECAST20253466156.26445.15850.71100.0027559070.5927559070.651.242755907FF24.264645.264253467.8603125406900.360857707738921623535275DRYVH
2025-09-06 04:00:03FORECAST20253466155.25644.65449.95500.0027559070.7527559070.851.602755907FF23.256639.256253467.8603125406900.328954920378871623535275DRYVH
2025-09-06 00:00:02FORECAST20253466151.67440.60446.13900.1582678020.8482678020.841.688267802FF19.674624.674253467.8603125406900.226419405953271613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-05 20:00:02FORECAST20253466153.31240.42446.86800.1444882670.8444882670.781.624488267FF21.312631.312253467.8603125406900.270967994673181623535275DRYVH
2025-09-05 16:00:02FORECAST20253466153.63641.28847.46200.1444882671.0944882670.942.034488267FF21.636633.636253467.8603125406900.2802701884645916235452100DRYVH
2025-09-05 12:00:02FORECAST20253466155.7641.16248.46100.003937010.633937010.811.44393701FF23.76637.76253467.8603125406900.344768405114031623535275DRYVH
2025-09-05 08:00:01FORECAST20253466153.61840.67647.14700.003937010.633937010.81.43393701FF21.618631.618253467.8603125406900.27974937272281623535275DRYVH
2025-09-05 04:00:04FORECAST20253466151.54840.83846.19300.003937010.603937010.711.31393701FF19.548625.548253467.8603125406900.22317248529511613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-05 00:00:03FORECAST20253466149.49640.4644.97800.0460630170.3760630171.031.406063017FF17.496618.496253467.8603125406900.174133757810451613525245DRYM
2025-09-04 20:00:03FORECAST20253466149.74840.62245.18500.0460630170.3760630171.011.386063017FF17.748623.748253467.8603125406900.179758798741371613525245DRYM
2025-09-04 16:00:02FORECAST20253466151.6241.88246.75100.0389763990.3989763991.21.598976399FF19.62631.62253467.8603125406900.225024618572611613525245DRYM
2025-09-04 12:00:02FORECAST20253466154.46445.26649.86500.145669370.465669370.721.18566937FF22.464641.464253467.8603125406900.30472045720231623525250DRYMH
2025-09-04 08:00:03FORECAST20253466154.7744.22249.49600.145669370.465669370.81.26566937FF22.77641.77253467.8603125406900.313990223051051623525250DRYMH
2025-09-04 04:00:04FORECAST20253466155.68844.63650.16200.1460630710.4560630710.81.256063071FF23.688640.688253467.8603125406900.342491864564361623525250DRYMH
2025-09-04 00:00:03FORECAST20253466150.97241.50446.23800.086614220.806614221.332.13661422FF18.972621.972253467.8603125406900.208670759103951613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-03 20:00:02FORECAST20253466150.7241.946.3100.086614220.806614221.352.15661422FF18.72621.72253467.8603125406900.202504712238831613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-03 16:00:03FORECAST20253466149.33441.95445.64400.0775590970.8175590971.292.107559097FF17.334620.334253467.8603125406900.170577262889431613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-03 12:00:02FORECAST20253466150.66640.62245.64400.0437008110.8137008110.421.233700811FF18.666625.666253467.8603125406900.201197700620981613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-03 08:00:02FORECAST20253466150.66640.62245.64400.0437008110.8137008110.421.233700811FF18.666624.666253467.8603125406900.201197700620981613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-03 04:00:04FORECAST20253466151.58440.80246.19300.0437008110.8237008110.441.263700811FF19.584624.584253467.8603125406900.224097467037741613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-03 00:00:02FORECAST20253466146.16638.96642.56600.0566929440.2066929440.430.636692944FF14.166620.166253467.8603125406900.110393959582321613525245DRYM
2025-09-02 20:00:02FORECAST20253466149.06441.07245.06800.0570866450.1870866450.40.587086645FF17.064618.064253467.8603125406900.164753660286991613525245DRYM
2025-09-02 16:00:02FORECAST20253466149.96441.34245.65300.055118140.265118140.350.61511814FF17.964619.964253467.8603125406900.184669847244751613525245DRYM
2025-09-02 12:00:02FORECAST20253466154.4141.19847.80400.1110236820.9810236820.261.241023682FF22.41626.41253467.8603125406900.303097312888681623535275DRYVH
2025-09-02 08:00:02FORECAST20253466154.4141.19847.80400.1110236820.9810236820.261.241023682FF22.41628.41253467.8603125406900.303097312888681623535275DRYVH
2025-09-02 04:00:05FORECAST20253466151.83640.67646.25600.0960630440.8860630440.191.076063044FF19.836628.836253467.8603125406900.230632878233521613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-02 00:00:02FORECAST20253466143.10638.9341.018000.880.591.47FF11.106618.106253467.8603125406900.0683799646031791613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-01 20:00:03FORECAST20253466143.21438.9341.072000.870.61.47FF11.214622.214253467.8603125406900.0696157260111841613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-01 16:00:05FORECAST20253466142.69236.21239.45200.0192913490.6092913490.61.209291349FF10.692617.692253467.8603125406900.0637986660319791613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-01 12:00:03FORECAST20253466140.3737.79639.083000.290.320.61FF8.37620.37253467.8603125406900.0423641864454281613525245DRYM
2025-09-01 08:00:02FORECAST20253466138.6633.63836.149000.290.330.62FF6.66615.66253467.8603125406900.0306386565490631613525245DRYM
2025-09-01 04:00:04FORECAST20253466141.14438.82239.98300.0019685050.2819685050.410.691968505FF9.144616.144253467.8603125406900.0487480826829911613525245DRYM