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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 8, 2025

[ Sunday, September 7, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, September 9, 2025 ]

DAY 343 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/09/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 63.11°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.02°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 53.56°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.639
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 31
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 733

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.86 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.06 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.92 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 250
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 466.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 58

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 82.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-09-09 04:00:03OBSERVATION20253435863.1099444.0200453.56499000.860.060.92FF31.10994733.10994250466.36937792312 00.6390579014321816 33535282.5DRYVH
2025-09-09 00:00:01FORECAST20253435857.32643.17850.25200.0051181130.8651181130.060.925118113FF25.326727.326250466.3693779231200.410374562310661623535275DRYVH
2025-09-08 12:00:01FORECAST20253435857.75843.19650.47700.0216535550.8816535550.060.941653555FF25.758727.758250466.3693779231200.427370304393851623535275DRYVH
2025-09-08 08:00:01FORECAST20253435858.62243.30450.96300.0303149770.8903149770.060.950314977FF26.622728.622250466.3693779231200.461737859432161623535275DRYVH
2025-09-08 04:00:03FORECAST20253435858.2842.90850.59400.0830709110.9430709110.061.003070911FF26.28728.28250466.3693779231200.448085200134931623535275DRYVH
2025-09-08 00:00:02FORECAST20253435858.76642.99850.88200.0877953230.9977953230.061.057795323FF26.766729.766250466.3693779231200.4675008107449316235452100DRYVH
2025-09-07 20:00:01FORECAST20253435857.97443.17850.57600.0889764260.9989764260.061.058976426FF25.974729.974250466.3693779231200.4359210852578116235452100DRYVH
2025-09-07 16:00:01FORECAST20253435858.02843.59250.8100.1748032441.0848032440.061.144803244FF26.028730.028250466.3693779231200.4380636310561616235452100DRYVH
2025-09-07 12:00:01FORECAST20253435858.17244.04251.10700.1433071641.0533071640.061.113307164FF26.172730.172250466.3693779231200.4437858012188316235452100DRYVH
2025-09-07 08:00:01FORECAST20253435857.84844.16851.00800.1685040281.1085040280.061.168504028FF25.848731.848250466.3693779231200.430929224318916235452100DRYVH
2025-09-07 04:00:02FORECAST20253435858.22644.7851.50300.2866143281.2066143280.061.266614328FF26.226732.226250466.3693779231200.4459347060872616235452100DRYVH
2025-09-07 00:00:02FORECAST20253435857.45244.70851.0800.1255906190.5955906190.060.655590619FF25.452725.452250466.3693779231200.415315790490641623535275DRYVH
2025-09-06 20:00:01FORECAST20253435856.76844.43850.60300.1724410380.5624410380.060.622441038FF24.768724.768250466.3693779231200.388672721902971623535275DRYVH
2025-09-06 16:00:01FORECAST20253435857.27245.30251.28700.1074803730.5274803730.060.587480373FF25.272724.272250466.3693779231200.408261191313491623535275DRYVH
2025-09-06 12:00:01FORECAST20253435856.10244.76250.43200.2582678560.7082678560.060.768267856FF24.102723.102250466.3693779231200.363223370131931623535275DRYVH
2025-09-06 08:00:02FORECAST20253435856.3944.7850.58500.3035434710.5935434710.060.653543471FF24.39724.39250466.3693779231200.374161979279741623535275DRYVH
2025-09-06 04:00:03FORECAST20253435856.17443.91650.04500.3657482290.7857482290.060.845748229FF24.174723.174250466.3693779231200.365947987949821623535275DRYVH
2025-09-06 00:00:02FORECAST20253435854.64443.48449.06400.3311025410.7811025410.060.841102541FF22.644715.644250466.3693779231200.309699874726721623535275DRYVH
2025-09-05 20:00:02FORECAST20253435854.71643.44849.08200.3649608270.7249608270.060.784960827FF22.716718.716250466.3693779231200.31226176335721623535275DRYVH
2025-09-05 16:00:01FORECAST20253435856.04844.54650.29700.3551183020.8751183020.060.935118302FF24.048721.048250466.3693779231200.361184428302681623535275DRYVH
2025-09-05 12:00:02FORECAST20253435854.57244.5149.54100.2500001350.7500001350.060.810000135FF22.572719.572250466.3693779231200.307147189324591623535275DRYVH
2025-09-05 08:00:01FORECAST20253435853.643.62848.61400.255905650.725905650.070.79590565FF21.6717.6250466.3693779231200.273635306956831623535275DRYVH
2025-09-05 04:00:03FORECAST20253435852.64643.86248.25400.1511811840.6411811840.070.711181184FF20.646715.646250466.3693779231200.242603922102561613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-05 00:00:02FORECAST20253435852.4343.6148.0200.2822836170.9622836170.071.032283617FF20.43712.43250466.3693779231200.23585183523621613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-04 20:00:02FORECAST20253435853.11444.63648.87500.279527710.939527710.071.00952771FF21.114714.114250466.3693779231200.257585040261041623535275DRYVH
2025-09-04 16:00:02FORECAST20253435854.28445.69849.99100.5287404431.1287404430.071.198740443FF22.284718.284250466.3693779231200.297030467609116235452100DRYVH
2025-09-04 12:00:02FORECAST20253435854.48245.69850.0900.2515749390.6515749390.070.721574939FF22.482719.482250466.3693779231200.303969427426311623535275DRYVH
2025-09-04 08:00:02FORECAST20253435852.77245.71649.24400.2645670720.7445670720.060.804567072FF20.772718.772250466.3693779231200.246590384008131613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-04 04:00:03FORECAST20253435854.2345.64449.93700.2633859690.7333859690.070.803385969FF22.23719.23250466.3693779231200.29515066104951623535275DRYVH
2025-09-04 00:00:02FORECAST20253435852.82644.54648.68600.8551185721.2551185720.071.325118572FF20.826710.826250466.3693779231200.248309531530941613545290DRYVH
2025-09-03 20:00:02FORECAST20253435852.95245.24849.100.8551185721.2751185720.071.345118572FF20.952710.952250466.3693779231200.2523455591838916235452100DRYVH
2025-09-03 16:00:02FORECAST20253435853.2445.15849.19900.8421264391.2221264390.071.292126439FF21.24712.24250466.3693779231200.2616988532342916235452100DRYVH
2025-09-03 12:00:02FORECAST20253435855.38245.6850.53100.1125984860.3425984860.080.422598486FF23.382717.382250466.3693779231200.336376960008011623525250DRYMH
2025-09-03 08:00:01FORECAST20253435854.7745.46450.11700.1125984860.3525984860.070.422598486FF22.77716.77250466.3693779231200.314189158302721623525250DRYMH
2025-09-03 04:00:03FORECAST20253435854.69845.44650.07200.1279528250.3779528250.060.437952825FF22.698714.698250466.3693779231200.311620433937461623525250DRYMH
2025-09-03 00:00:02FORECAST20253435855.95844.92450.44100.0751968910.3651968910.060.425196891FF23.958712.958250466.3693779231200.357794960554411623525250DRYMH
2025-09-02 20:00:02FORECAST20253435855.02243.8849.45100.0720472830.3420472830.060.402047283FF23.022706.022250466.3693779231200.323250074264821623525250DRYMH
2025-09-02 16:00:01FORECAST20253435854.28445.15849.72100.1110236820.2710236820.080.351023682FF22.284706.284250466.3693779231200.29703046760911623525250DRYMH
2025-09-02 12:00:02FORECAST20253435855.95845.87850.91800.0169291430.1569291430.10.256929143FF23.958709.958250466.3693779231200.357794960554411623525250DRYMH
2025-09-02 08:00:02FORECAST20253435856.62445.551.06200.0169291430.1569291430.10.256929143FF24.624711.624250466.3693779231200.383125256936261623525250DRYMH
2025-09-02 04:00:04FORECAST20253435857.72246.32852.02500.0043307110.1243307110.070.194330711FF25.722714.722250466.3693779231200.425948372639761623525250DRYMH
2025-09-02 00:00:02FORECAST20253435859.46846.14852.80800.2732284940.4932284940.10.593228494FF27.468715.468250466.3693779231200.49567049751591623535275DRYVH
2025-09-01 20:00:03FORECAST20253435860.0847.04853.56400.2791340090.4991340090.10.599134009FF28.08719.08250466.3693779231200.52025123178311633535282.5DRYVH
2025-09-01 16:00:04FORECAST20253435858.74847.5753.15900.279527710.519527710.080.59952771FF26.748713.748250466.3693779231200.466780044165091623535275DRYVH
2025-09-01 12:00:02FORECAST20253435859.84647.89453.8700.1043307650.2643307650.060.324330765FF27.846713.846250466.3693779231200.510856719514531633525255DRYH
2025-09-01 08:00:02FORECAST20253435857.41644.97851.19700.1043307650.2643307650.070.334330765FF25.416712.416250466.3693779231200.413902607638491623525250DRYMH
2025-09-01 04:00:03FORECAST20253435856.58845.39250.9900.1405512570.3405512570.070.410551257FF24.588710.588250466.3693779231200.381742077106351623525250DRYMH
2025-09-01 00:00:03FORECAST20253435859.03643.6151.323000.10.070.17FF27.036696.036250466.3693779231200.478323777673241623525250DRYMH
2025-08-31 20:00:03FORECAST20253435859.03643.50251.269000.10.070.17FF27.036701.036250466.3693779231200.478323777673241623525250DRYMH
2025-08-31 16:00:02FORECAST20253435859.37843.64651.512000.10.070.17FF27.378703.378250466.3693779231200.492054831293651623525250DRYMH
2025-08-31 12:00:02FORECAST20253435853.67239.77646.724000.130.060.19FF21.672699.672250466.3693779231200.27605448316751623525250DRYMH
2025-08-31 08:00:02FORECAST20253435853.67239.77646.724000.130.060.19FF21.672698.672250466.3693779231200.27605448316751623525250DRYMH
2025-08-31 04:00:04FORECAST20253435853.8740.49647.183000.150.070.22FF21.87703.87250466.3693779231200.282760808439871623525250DRYMH
2025-08-31 00:00:03FORECAST20253435859.41445.08652.2500.0326771830.1026771830.10.202677183FF27.414712.414250466.3693779231200.493501036089631623525250DRYMH
2025-08-30 20:00:02FORECAST20253435859.41445.08652.2500.0326771830.1026771830.10.202677183FF27.414711.414250466.3693779231200.493501036089631623525250DRYMH
2025-08-30 16:00:03FORECAST20253435861.73644.7853.25800.0137795350.0537795350.090.143779535FF29.736715.736250466.3693779231200.586116417565041633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-30 12:00:02FORECAST20253435864.92250.2757.59600.0259842660.0259842660.060.085984266FF32.922719.922250466.3693779231200.70486619230991643515230DRYL
2025-08-30 08:00:02FORECAST20253435864.92250.2757.59600.0259842660.0259842660.060.085984266FF32.922719.922250466.3693779231200.70486619230991643515230DRYL
2025-08-30 04:00:04FORECAST20253435861.93443.46652.70000.060.06FF29.934709.934250466.3693779231200.593868454248031633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-30 00:00:03FORECAST20253435847.42639.1143.2680000.060.06FF15.426688.426250466.3693779231200.110465989441381613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-29 20:00:02FORECAST20253435846.11239.1142.6110000.060.06FF14.112689.112250466.3693779231200.0874503279589031613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-29 16:00:02FORECAST20253435847.06643.23245.1490000.060.06FF15.066693.066250466.3693779231200.103768494903051613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-29 12:00:03FORECAST20253435839.52436.33837.93100.0535433360.0635433360.070.133543336FF7.524673.524250466.3693779231200.0215560532645791613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-29 08:00:02FORECAST20253435839.52436.33837.93100.0535433360.0635433360.070.133543336FF7.524675.524250466.3693779231200.0215560532645791613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-29 04:00:04FORECAST20253435843.55642.45843.0070000.080.08FF11.556691.556250466.3693779231200.0531836405991961613515222.5DRYL