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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, September 6, 2025

[ Friday, September 5, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, September 7, 2025 ]

DAY 341 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/07/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 70.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.02°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 60.24°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.818
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 38
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 744

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.85 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.85 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.07 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.92 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 248
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 465.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 56

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 180.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-09-07 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253415670.4600650.0199860.2400200.850000000000020.850000000000020.070.92000000000002FF38.46006744.46006248465.36593694953 00.8176495296102916 435351180DRYVH
2025-09-07 00:00:01FORECAST20253415663.62651.63857.63200.3311025410.3311025410.070.401102541FF31.626737.626248465.3659369495300.612467879680741633525255DRYH
2025-09-06 12:00:01FORECAST20253415664.3152.86258.58600.2397639090.2397639090.070.309763909FF32.31738.31248465.3659369495300.636031114130321633525255DRYH
2025-09-06 08:00:02FORECAST20253415665.44452.48458.96400.1397638550.1397638550.070.209763855FF33.444739.444248465.3659369495300.673950619802261633525255DRYH
2025-09-06 04:00:02FORECAST20253415665.06652.82658.94600.1814961610.1814961610.070.251496161FF33.066739.066248465.3659369495300.661485982434091633525255DRYH
2025-09-06 00:00:02FORECAST20253415667.26252.9760.11600.3224411190.3224411190.070.392441119FF35.262734.262248465.3659369495300.731036033213181643525260DRYH
2025-09-05 20:00:02FORECAST20253415668.19853.67260.93500.2405513110.2405513110.070.310551311FF36.198737.198248465.3659369495300.7583357940564916435251120DRYVH
2025-09-05 16:00:01FORECAST20253415668.5454.2361.38500.2641733710.2641733710.070.334173371FF36.54737.54248465.3659369495300.7679225796307516435251120DRYVH
2025-09-05 12:00:01FORECAST20253415667.96454.0561.00700.1807087590.1807087590.070.250708759FF35.964736.964248465.3659369495300.75165473547431643525260DRYH
2025-09-05 08:00:01FORECAST20253415667.29854.42860.86300.1645670180.1745670180.070.244567018FF35.298737.298248465.3659369495300.732113908045961643525260DRYH
2025-09-05 04:00:03FORECAST20253415666.99253.45660.22400.1460630710.1560630710.070.226063071FF34.992736.992248465.3659369495300.722883300913881643525260DRYH
2025-09-05 00:00:02FORECAST20253415666.5653.72660.14300.2381891050.2481891050.070.318189105FF34.56732.56248465.3659369495300.709592883571391643525260DRYH
2025-09-04 20:00:02FORECAST20253415666.79453.94260.36800.2118111380.2218111380.070.291811138FF34.794732.794248465.3659369495300.716828850718631643525260DRYH
2025-09-04 16:00:01FORECAST20253415668.28855.38261.83500.1799213570.1899213570.070.259921357FF36.288736.288248465.3659369495300.7608792500690716435251120DRYVH
2025-09-04 12:00:02FORECAST20253415667.71255.3161.51100.2307087860.2407087860.070.310708786FF35.712734.712248465.3659369495300.744351247334031643525260DRYH
2025-09-04 08:00:02FORECAST20253415667.53255.25661.39400.2763781020.2763781020.070.346378102FF35.532735.532248465.3659369495300.739066713634341643525260DRYH
2025-09-04 04:00:03FORECAST20253415666.54254.75260.64700.2535434440.2635434440.070.333543444FF34.542734.542248465.3659369495300.709032707780061643525260DRYH
2025-09-04 00:00:02FORECAST20253415666.50653.58260.04400.2515749390.2615749390.070.331574939FF34.506729.506248465.3659369495300.707910845687311643525260DRYH
2025-09-03 20:00:01FORECAST20253415666.32653.52859.92700.2551182480.2651182480.070.335118248FF34.326730.326248465.3659369495300.70227159866541643525260DRYH
2025-09-03 16:00:02FORECAST20253415665.1252.86258.99100.2342520950.2442520950.070.314252095FF33.12730.12248465.3659369495300.66327791052071633525255DRYH
2025-09-03 12:00:01FORECAST20253415664.88652.53858.71200.1783465530.1983465530.070.268346553FF32.886730.886248465.3659369495300.655486645845741633525255DRYH
2025-09-03 08:00:01FORECAST20253415664.41852.5258.46900.1944882940.2044882940.070.274488294FF32.418732.418248465.3659369495300.639707637722681633525255DRYH
2025-09-03 04:00:03FORECAST20253415663.06851.83657.45200.2019686130.2019686130.070.271968613FF31.068730.068248465.3659369495300.592929043742971633525255DRYH
2025-09-03 00:00:02FORECAST20253415664.65251.56658.10900.2688977830.2688977830.070.338897783FF32.652726.652248465.3659369495300.647628886741221633525255DRYH
2025-09-02 20:00:01FORECAST20253415663.84250.28857.06500.2610237630.2610237630.070.331023763FF31.842721.842248465.3659369495300.619958427581851633525255DRYH
2025-09-02 16:00:01FORECAST20253415664.20251.33257.76700.1200788050.1400788050.070.210078805FF32.202723.202248465.3659369495300.632342031684221633525255DRYH
2025-09-02 12:00:01FORECAST20253415663.57252.12457.84800.1086614760.1486614760.070.218661476FF31.572723.572248465.3659369495300.610588562737121633525255DRYH
2025-09-02 08:00:02FORECAST20253415661.7951.36856.57900.1086614760.1486614760.070.218661476FF29.79723.79248465.3659369495300.547375688200841633525255DRYH
2025-09-02 04:00:04FORECAST20253415663.91452.08858.00100.0657480670.0757480670.070.145748067FF31.914724.914248465.3659369495300.622445468437911633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-02 00:00:02FORECAST20253415665.69652.80859.25200.1590552040.1990552040.070.269055204FF33.696723.696248465.3659369495300.68215483020991633525255DRYH
2025-09-01 20:00:02FORECAST20253415666.52453.81660.1700.1590552040.1990552040.070.269055204FF34.524725.524248465.3659369495300.708472028137861643525260DRYH
2025-09-01 16:00:04FORECAST20253415665.35453.79859.57600.165354420.185354420.070.25535442FF33.354723.354248465.3659369495300.670999761820841633525255DRYH
2025-09-01 12:00:02FORECAST20253415665.3954.5959.9900.0574803460.0574803460.070.127480346FF33.39722.39248465.3659369495300.672181396421731633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-01 08:00:01FORECAST20253415666.30854.560.40400.0574803460.0674803460.070.137480346FF34.308725.308248465.3659369495300.701704955163591643515230DRYL
2025-09-01 04:00:03FORECAST20253415665.94854.33860.14300.094488240.104488240.070.17448824FF33.948723.948248465.3659369495300.690270651607171633525255DRYH
2025-09-01 00:00:02FORECAST20253415662.649.96456.28200.098425250.108425250.070.17842525FF30.6708.6248465.3659369495300.576359182530121633525255DRYH
2025-08-31 20:00:02FORECAST20253415663.42850.12656.77700.098425250.108425250.070.17842525FF31.428711.428248465.3659369495300.605564505860691633525255DRYH
2025-08-31 16:00:02FORECAST20253415663.89650.21657.05600.0976378480.1076378480.070.177637848FF31.896712.896248465.3659369495300.621824179314061633525255DRYH
2025-08-31 12:00:02FORECAST20253415665.71451.6258.66700.1169291970.1169291970.070.186929197FF33.714715.714248465.3659369495300.682737502148191633525255DRYH
2025-08-31 08:00:02FORECAST20253415665.51651.38658.45100.1169291970.1169291970.070.186929197FF33.516717.516248465.3659369495300.676303505038241633525255DRYH
2025-08-31 04:00:03FORECAST20253415665.67851.58458.63100.0937008380.1037008380.070.173700838FF33.678721.678248465.3659369495300.681571707252791633525255DRYH
2025-08-31 00:00:02FORECAST20253415666.70452.91659.8100.0728346850.1128346850.070.182834685FF34.704720.704248465.3659369495300.714056027370081643525260DRYH
2025-08-30 20:00:02FORECAST20253415665.46250.8158.13600.0728346850.1128346850.070.182834685FF33.462720.462248465.3659369495300.674539494961511633525255DRYH
2025-08-30 16:00:02FORECAST20253415665.4850.86458.17200.0440945120.0740945120.070.144094512FF33.48722.48248465.3659369495300.675127935051131633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-30 12:00:02FORECAST20253415665.42652.80859.1170000.070.07FF33.426718.426248465.3659369495300.673361310823261633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-30 08:00:02FORECAST20253415665.46251.60258.5320000.070.07FF33.462718.462248465.3659369495300.674539494961511633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-30 04:00:04FORECAST20253415662.45649.8256.1380000.070.07FF30.456714.456248465.3659369495300.571232030337511633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-30 00:00:03FORECAST20253415662.00650.55856.28200.0015748040.0015748040.070.071574804FF30.006712.006248465.3659369495300.55513592612071633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-29 20:00:02FORECAST20253415662.47449.42455.94900.0015748040.0015748040.070.071574804FF30.474713.474248465.3659369495300.571873600630661633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-29 16:00:02FORECAST20253415662.79849.24456.02100.0015748040.0015748040.070.071574804FF30.798714.798248465.3659369495300.583387792294211633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-29 12:00:02FORECAST20253415661.12447.91254.518000.010.070.08FF29.124710.124248465.3659369495300.523347049935621633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-29 08:00:02FORECAST20253415661.12447.91254.518000.010.070.08FF29.124712.124248465.3659369495300.523347049935621633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-29 04:00:04FORECAST20253415664.61650.25257.434000.010.080.09FF32.616719.616248465.3659369495300.646414289184831633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-29 00:00:03FORECAST20253415667.58654.561.0430000.090.09FF35.586718.586248465.3659369495300.740657943713811643515230DRYL
2025-08-28 20:00:02FORECAST20253415667.58654.561.0430000.120.12FF35.586718.586248465.3659369495300.740657943713811643515230DRYL
2025-08-28 16:00:02FORECAST20253415668.52255.9462.2310000.10.1FF36.522721.522248465.3659369495300.76742333901691643515160DRYH
2025-08-28 12:00:02FORECAST20253415655.34647.80451.57500.0047244120.0147244120.10.114724412FF23.346692.346248465.3659369495300.320559416374981623515225DRYL
2025-08-28 08:00:02FORECAST20253415655.34647.80451.57500.0047244120.0147244120.160.174724412FF23.346685.346248465.3659369495300.320559416374981623515225DRYL
2025-08-28 04:00:04FORECAST20253415653.56442.27847.92100.0287401730.0587401730.20.258740173FF21.564680.564248465.3659369495300.265012506064731623515225DRYL
2025-08-28 00:00:03FORECAST20253415656.40848.93852.6730000.20.2FF24.408680.408248465.3659369495300.355805061104361623515225DRYL
2025-08-27 20:00:03FORECAST20253415656.40848.93852.6730000.190.19FF24.408680.408248465.3659369495300.355805061104361623515225DRYL
2025-08-27 16:00:02FORECAST20253415655.83247.28251.5570000.20.2FF23.832673.832248465.3659369495300.336512166615741623515225DRYL
2025-08-27 12:00:03FORECAST20253415649.56845.91447.7410000.160.16FF17.568656.568248465.3659369495300.160849442394441613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-27 08:00:02FORECAST20253415649.56845.91447.7410000.160.16FF17.568656.568248465.3659369495300.160849442394441613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-27 04:00:04FORECAST20253415645.46443.64644.5550000.20.2FF13.464638.464248465.3659369495300.0862606449394961613515222.5DRYL