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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, September 4, 2025

[ Wednesday, September 3, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, September 5, 2025 ]

DAY 339 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/05/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 75.30°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 64.71°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 70.01°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.895
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 43
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 719

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.07 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.07 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 246
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 464.35 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 54

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 65.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-09-05 04:00:03OBSERVATION20253395475.3000864.7099670.005020000.070.07FF43.30008719.30008246464.35484077161 00.894883342787616 53515165DRYH
2025-09-05 00:00:01FORECAST20253395469.04455.25662.150000.070.07FF37.044713.044246464.3548407716100.747304619050311643515160DRYH
2025-09-04 12:00:02FORECAST20253395469.856.55263.1760000.070.07FF37.8713.8246464.3548407716100.769413400829371643515160DRYH
2025-09-04 08:00:02FORECAST20253395470.93456.44463.6890000.070.07FF38.934714.934246464.3548407716100.80045725312741643515160DRYH
2025-09-04 04:00:02FORECAST20253395471.13257.45264.2920000.070.07FF39.132715.132246464.3548407716100.805607997747081643515160DRYH
2025-09-04 00:00:02FORECAST20253395473.4957.18265.3360000.070.07FF41.49711.49246464.3548407716100.860601166207471653515165DRYH
2025-09-03 20:00:01FORECAST20253395472.82456.3964.6070000.070.07FF40.824711.824246464.3548407716100.846262681179641643515160DRYH
2025-09-03 16:00:02FORECAST20253395473.9458.4666.20000.070.07FF41.94712.94246464.3548407716100.869759127368351653515165DRYH
2025-09-03 12:00:01FORECAST20253395473.5858.56866.0740000.070.07FF41.58712.58246464.3548407716100.862466843518581653515165DRYH
2025-09-03 08:00:01FORECAST20253395473.83259.88266.8570000.070.07FF41.832714.832246464.3548407716100.867600014365051653515165DRYH
2025-09-03 04:00:03FORECAST20253395472.73459.10865.9210000.070.07FF40.734713.734246464.3548407716100.844252905833121643515160DRYH
2025-09-03 00:00:01FORECAST20253395472.98658.53265.7590000.070.07FF40.986708.986246464.3548407716100.849836942726361653515165DRYH
2025-09-02 20:00:01FORECAST20253395472.26657.54264.9040000.070.07FF40.266706.266246464.3548407716100.833524774916251643515160DRYH
2025-09-02 16:00:01FORECAST20253395472.73458.60465.66900.0066929170.0066929170.070.076692917FF40.734706.734246464.3548407716100.844252905833121643515160DRYH
2025-09-02 12:00:01FORECAST20253395473.41859.28866.3530000.070.07FF41.418708.418246464.3548407716100.85909631839291653515165DRYH
2025-09-02 08:00:02FORECAST20253395473.3159.12666.2180000.070.07FF41.31710.31246464.3548407716100.856818510869321653515165DRYH
2025-09-02 04:00:03FORECAST20253395473.50859.12666.3170000.070.07FF41.508709.508246464.3548407716100.860975668392051653515165DRYH
2025-09-02 00:00:01FORECAST20253395475.258.58666.8930000.070.07FF43.2708.2246464.3548407716100.893163243792911653515165DRYH
2025-09-01 20:00:02FORECAST20253395474.71459.25266.9830000.070.07FF42.714708.714246464.3548407716100.884522275048841653515165DRYH
2025-09-01 16:00:03FORECAST20253395473.77859.91866.8480000.070.07FF41.778707.778246464.3548407716100.866511285674121653515165DRYH
2025-09-01 12:00:02FORECAST20253395473.56259.9966.7760000.070.07FF41.562706.562246464.3548407716100.862095074400331653515165DRYH
2025-09-01 08:00:01FORECAST20253395473.52659.86466.69500.0110236280.0110236280.070.081023628FF41.526706.526246464.3548407716100.861349487028021653515165DRYH
2025-09-01 04:00:02FORECAST20253395473.45459.84666.6500.0110236280.0110236280.070.081023628FF41.454707.454246464.3548407716100.859850110467351653515165DRYH
2025-09-01 00:00:02FORECAST20253395472.8658.26265.5610000.070.07FF40.86696.86246464.3548407716100.847061775602941643515160DRYH
2025-08-31 20:00:02FORECAST20253395473.45459.14466.2990000.070.07FF41.454699.454246464.3548407716100.859850110467351653515165DRYH
2025-08-31 16:00:02FORECAST20253395473.27458.4665.8670000.070.07FF41.274698.274246464.3548407716100.856053760449571653515165DRYH
2025-08-31 12:00:02FORECAST20253395473.20258.4665.83100.0007874020.0007874020.070.070787402FF41.202699.202246464.3548407716100.854516030886311653515165DRYH
2025-08-31 08:00:02FORECAST20253395472.7758.5565.6600.0007874020.0007874020.070.070787402FF40.77700.77246464.3548407716100.845058880042981643515160DRYH
2025-08-31 04:00:03FORECAST20253395474.60659.34266.97400.0137795350.0137795350.070.083779535FF42.606703.606246464.3548407716100.88253664256111653515165DRYH
2025-08-31 00:00:02FORECAST20253395475.52459.52267.52300.0263779670.0263779670.070.096377967FF43.524702.524246464.3548407716100.898659357876541653515165DRYH
2025-08-30 20:00:02FORECAST20253395476.11859.32467.72100.0263779670.0263779670.070.096377967FF44.118703.118246464.3548407716100.90819695569361653515165DRYH
2025-08-30 16:00:02FORECAST20253395476.08259.5467.81100.0192913490.0192913490.070.089291349FF44.082705.082246464.3548407716100.907638482018031653515165DRYH
2025-08-30 12:00:02FORECAST20253395477.14461.57469.3590000.070.07FF45.144704.144246464.3548407716100.923083231630611653515165DRYH
2025-08-30 08:00:02FORECAST20253395476.51460.40468.4590000.070.07FF44.514704.514246464.3548407716100.914176443416821653515165DRYH
2025-08-30 04:00:03FORECAST20253395475.48860.40467.9460000.070.07FF43.488705.488246464.3548407716100.898059018754441653515165DRYH
2025-08-30 00:00:02FORECAST20253395473.56258.94666.2540000.070.07FF41.562699.562246464.3548407716100.862095074400331653515165DRYH
2025-08-29 20:00:02FORECAST20253395473.2259.37866.2990000.070.07FF41.22701.22246464.3548407716100.854901492199761653515165DRYH
2025-08-29 16:00:02FORECAST20253395473.74259.84666.7940000.070.07FF41.742701.742246464.3548407716100.865782064959781653515165DRYH
2025-08-29 12:00:02FORECAST20253395474.361.41267.8560000.070.07FF42.3699.3246464.3548407716100.876780200297691653515165DRYH
2025-08-29 08:00:02FORECAST20253395475.09261.89868.4950000.070.07FF43.092701.092246464.3548407716100.891284413116341653515165DRYH
2025-08-29 04:00:03FORECAST20253395475.6562.74469.1970000.080.08FF43.65701.65246464.3548407716100.900740322837211653515165DRYH
2025-08-29 00:00:03FORECAST20253395476.49661.7969.1430000.090.09FF44.496696.496246464.3548407716100.913911110048721653515165DRYH
2025-08-28 20:00:02FORECAST20253395476.49661.7969.1430000.120.12FF44.496696.496246464.3548407716100.913911110048721653515165DRYH
2025-08-28 16:00:02FORECAST20253395476.78462.20469.4940000.10.1FF44.784697.784246464.3548407716100.918083549619631653515165DRYH
2025-08-28 12:00:02FORECAST20253395473.95859.07266.51500.0051181130.0051181130.10.105118113FF41.958690.958246464.3548407716100.870116604529371653515165DRYH
2025-08-28 08:00:02FORECAST20253395472.1458.65865.39900.0051181130.0051181130.160.165118113FF40.14684.14246464.3548407716100.830556998088731643515160DRYH
2025-08-28 04:00:03FORECAST20253395471.94258.58665.26400.0051181130.0051181130.20.205118113FF39.942683.942246464.3548407716100.825825373131081643515160DRYH
2025-08-28 00:00:03FORECAST20253395472.75256.31864.535000.010.190.2FF40.752673.752246464.3548407716100.844656236971871643515160DRYH
2025-08-27 20:00:02FORECAST20253395472.75258.2865.516000.010.180.19FF40.752673.752246464.3548407716100.844656236971871643515160DRYH
2025-08-27 16:00:02FORECAST20253395470.84456.98463.914000.010.190.2FF38.844668.844246464.3548407716100.798089160129321643515160DRYH
2025-08-27 12:00:03FORECAST20253395470.89857.00263.950000.160.16FF38.898657.898246464.3548407716100.799512024352911643515160DRYH
2025-08-27 08:00:02FORECAST20253395470.89857.00263.950000.160.16FF38.898657.898246464.3548407716100.799512024352911643515160DRYH
2025-08-27 04:00:03FORECAST20253395469.20656.51662.8610000.20.2FF37.206647.206246464.3548407716100.752134141533641643515160DRYH
2025-08-27 00:00:02FORECAST20253395465.1252.37658.74800.0015748040.0015748040.220.221574804FF33.12635.12246464.3548407716100.617209706781391633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-26 20:00:02FORECAST20253395465.1252.37658.74800.0015748040.0015748040.340.341574804FF33.12631.12246464.3548407716100.617209706781391633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-26 16:00:03FORECAST20253395464.38252.89858.640000.330.33FF32.382635.382246464.3548407716100.590556916585891633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-26 12:00:02FORECAST20253395470.46654.08662.2760000.480.48FF38.466642.466246464.3548407716100.787961328219651643515160DRYH
2025-08-26 08:00:02FORECAST20253395470.46654.08662.2760000.490.49FF38.466644.466246464.3548407716100.787961328219651643515160DRYH
2025-08-26 04:00:05FORECAST20253395469.92650.75660.3410000.570.57FF37.926639.926246464.3548407716100.772990338794711643515160DRYH
2025-08-26 00:00:02FORECAST20253395456.40843.68250.0450000.220.22FF24.408626.408246464.3548407716100.302041682423761623515225DRYL
2025-08-25 20:00:02FORECAST20253395456.3943.68250.0360000.220.22FF24.39634.39246464.3548407716100.301453416302851623515225DRYL
2025-08-25 16:00:02FORECAST20253395458.11848.39853.2580000.270.27FF26.118644.118246464.3548407716100.360085310388071623515225DRYL
2025-08-25 12:00:03FORECAST20253395447.08441.55844.3210000.280.28FF15.084627.084246464.3548407716100.0817631639930041613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-25 08:00:02FORECAST20253395447.08441.55844.3210000.330.33FF15.084631.084246464.3548407716100.0817631639930041613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-25 04:00:04FORECAST20253395452.64651.18851.9170000.390.39FF20.646631.646246464.3548407716100.191801431220341613515222.5DRYL