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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, September 3, 2025

[ Tuesday, September 2, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, September 4, 2025 ]

DAY 338 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/04/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 79.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 66.07°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 72.64°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.963
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 47
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 702

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.07 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.07 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 245
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 463.85 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 53

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 65.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-09-04 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253385379.1999666.0700472.6350000.070.07FF47.19996702.19996245463.84640374802 00.9633315248572616 53515165DRYH
2025-09-04 00:00:02FORECAST20253385373.23858.89266.0650000.070.07FF41.238696.238245463.8464037480200.890396953867221653515165DRYH
2025-09-03 12:00:01FORECAST20253385373.7656.87665.3180000.070.07FF41.76696.76245463.8464037480200.899339135407091653515165DRYH
2025-09-03 08:00:01FORECAST20253385375.68656.76866.2270000.070.07FF43.686698.686245463.8464037480200.927751116237511653515165DRYH
2025-09-03 04:00:02FORECAST20253385375.86656.82266.3440000.070.07FF43.866698.866245463.8464037480200.930056323896691653515165DRYH
2025-09-03 00:00:01FORECAST20253385377.57657.75867.6670000.070.07FF45.576693.576245463.8464037480200.949232950921591653515165DRYH
2025-09-02 20:00:01FORECAST2025338537758.31667.6580000.070.07FF45692245463.8464037480200.943304084590191653515165DRYH
2025-09-02 16:00:01FORECAST20253385377.28859.66668.4770000.070.07FF45.288692.288245463.8464037480200.946333126662581653515165DRYH
2025-09-02 12:00:01FORECAST20253385377.91860.8969.4040000.070.07FF45.918692.918245463.8464037480200.952513422377041653515165DRYH
2025-09-02 08:00:01FORECAST20253385377.70261.46669.5840000.070.07FF45.702694.702245463.8464037480200.950461871072891653515165DRYH
2025-09-02 04:00:03FORECAST20253385377.37861.57469.4760000.070.07FF45.378694.378245463.8464037480200.947253041187081653515165DRYH
2025-09-02 00:00:01FORECAST20253385377.66661.35869.5120000.070.07FF45.666690.666245463.8464037480200.95011319055131653515165DRYH
2025-09-01 20:00:02FORECAST20253385377.97261.66469.8180000.070.07FF45.972691.972245463.8464037480200.953015562099171653515165DRYH
2025-09-01 16:00:03FORECAST20253385377.82861.8869.8540000.070.07FF45.828691.828245463.8464037480200.951667008770591653515165DRYH
2025-09-01 12:00:02FORECAST20253385377.3661.1669.260000.070.07FF45.36691.36245463.8464037480200.947070062790541653515165DRYH
2025-09-01 08:00:01FORECAST20253385377.05461.62869.3410000.070.07FF45.054691.054245463.8464037480200.943882030228471653515165DRYH
2025-09-01 04:00:02FORECAST20253385377.30661.4369.3680000.070.07FF45.306692.306245463.8464037480200.946518115754211653515165DRYH
2025-09-01 00:00:02FORECAST20253385375.14660.11667.6310000.070.07FF43.146682.146245463.8464037480200.920487074516521653515165DRYH
2025-08-31 20:00:02FORECAST20253385375.5659.48667.5230000.070.07FF43.56683.56245463.8464037480200.926103255161241653515165DRYH
2025-08-31 16:00:02FORECAST20253385375.48859.8167.6490000.070.07FF43.488683.488245463.8464037480200.925148854588431653515165DRYH
2025-08-31 12:00:01FORECAST20253385375.72258.80267.2620000.070.07FF43.722683.722245463.8464037480200.928216740246041653515165DRYH
2025-08-31 08:00:02FORECAST20253385376.24459.68467.9640000.070.07FF44.244686.244245463.8464037480200.934713205731961653515165DRYH
2025-08-31 04:00:03FORECAST20253385376.47859.14467.8110000.070.07FF44.478687.478245463.8464037480200.937473583737941653515165DRYH
2025-08-31 00:00:02FORECAST20253385376.74860.24268.4950000.070.07FF44.748684.748245463.8464037480200.940544993067521653515165DRYH
2025-08-30 20:00:02FORECAST20253385376.87460.09868.4860000.070.07FF44.874684.874245463.8464037480200.941937373199791653515165DRYH
2025-08-30 16:00:02FORECAST20253385377.52260.2668.8910000.070.07FF45.522686.522245463.8464037480200.948698918391881653515165DRYH
2025-08-30 12:00:02FORECAST20253385377.55861.21469.3860000.070.07FF45.558684.558245463.8464037480200.949055432500811653515165DRYH
2025-08-30 08:00:02FORECAST20253385377.73861.48469.6110000.070.07FF45.738685.738245463.8464037480200.950808610163371653515165DRYH
2025-08-30 04:00:03FORECAST20253385377.79261.77269.7820000.070.07FF45.792687.792245463.8464037480200.951325093492951653515165DRYH
2025-08-30 00:00:02FORECAST20253385377.7262.1569.9350000.070.07FF45.72683.72245463.8464037480200.950635482872161653515165DRYH
2025-08-29 20:00:01FORECAST20253385378.15262.67270.4120000.070.07FF46.152686.152245463.8464037480200.954658773857431653515165DRYH
2025-08-29 16:00:01FORECAST20253385378.18862.6970.4390000.070.07FF46.188686.188245463.8464037480200.954981820698351653515165DRYH
2025-08-29 12:00:02FORECAST20253385377.10861.35869.2330000.070.07FF45.108683.108245463.8464037480200.944455335431151653515165DRYH
2025-08-29 08:00:01FORECAST20253385377.28862.52869.9080000.070.07FF45.288684.288245463.8464037480200.946333126662581653515165DRYH
2025-08-29 04:00:03FORECAST20253385377.52262.79870.160000.080.08FF45.522683.522245463.8464037480200.948698918391881653515165DRYH
2025-08-29 00:00:02FORECAST20253385377.10862.9670.0340000.090.09FF45.108678.108245463.8464037480200.944455335431151653515165DRYH
2025-08-28 20:00:02FORECAST20253385377.10862.9670.0340000.120.12FF45.108678.108245463.8464037480200.944455335431151653515165DRYH
2025-08-28 16:00:02FORECAST20253385377.4563.2370.340000.10.1FF45.45679.45245463.8464037480200.947979957441981653515165DRYH
2025-08-28 12:00:02FORECAST20253385375.61460.51268.063000.010.090.1FF43.614674.614245463.8464037480200.926812952548321653515165DRYH
2025-08-28 08:00:02FORECAST20253385374.53459.3666.947000.010.150.16FF42.534669.534245463.8464037480200.911603561331281653515165DRYH
2025-08-28 04:00:03FORECAST20253385374.4859.46866.974000.010.190.2FF42.48670.48245463.8464037480200.910785675252831653515165DRYH
2025-08-28 00:00:02FORECAST20253385373.65258.2865.966000.010.190.2FF41.652658.652245463.8464037480200.897533971876441653515165DRYH
2025-08-27 20:00:02FORECAST20253385371.56457.95664.76000.010.180.19FF39.564658.564245463.8464037480200.857931878368341653515165DRYH
2025-08-27 16:00:02FORECAST20253385370.53858.17264.355000.010.190.2FF38.538655.538245463.8464037480200.83510536479281643515160DRYH
2025-08-27 12:00:03FORECAST20253385368.37857.54262.96000.010.150.16FF36.378645.378245463.8464037480200.779757822256971643515160DRYH
2025-08-27 08:00:02FORECAST20253385369.31456.19262.753000.010.150.16FF37.314645.314245463.8464037480200.804940941483941643515160DRYH
2025-08-27 04:00:03FORECAST20253385370.17857.41663.797000.010.190.2FF38.178636.178245463.8464037480200.826563536978661643515160DRYH
2025-08-27 00:00:02FORECAST20253385367.49653.07860.2870000.220.22FF35.496628.496245463.8464037480200.754411050374951643515230DRYL
2025-08-26 20:00:02FORECAST20253385367.49653.00660.2510000.340.34FF35.496624.496245463.8464037480200.754411050374951643515230DRYL
2025-08-26 16:00:02FORECAST20253385366.95653.34860.1520000.330.33FF34.956628.956245463.8464037480200.738152919623171643515230DRYL
2025-08-26 12:00:02FORECAST20253385369.854.84262.321000.010.470.48FF37.8629.8245463.8464037480200.817297834793781643515160DRYH
2025-08-26 08:00:02FORECAST20253385369.854.84262.321000.010.480.49FF37.8631.8245463.8464037480200.817297834793781643515160DRYH
2025-08-26 04:00:05FORECAST20253385369.3555.14862.249000.010.560.57FF37.35628.35245463.8464037480200.805873288696651643515160DRYH
2025-08-26 00:00:02FORECAST20253385370.23254.9562.5910000.220.22FF38.232628.232245463.8464037480200.827862419680471643515160DRYH
2025-08-25 20:00:02FORECAST20253385369.9855.50862.7440000.220.22FF37.98635.98245463.8464037480200.821747901244611643515160DRYH
2025-08-25 16:00:02FORECAST20253385372.48258.67665.5790000.270.27FF40.482644.482245463.8464037480200.876460085157161653515165DRYH
2025-08-25 12:00:03FORECAST20253385366.99248.9257.9560000.280.28FF34.992637.992245463.8464037480200.739253691035891643515230DRYL
2025-08-25 08:00:02FORECAST20253385366.99248.9257.9560000.330.33FF34.992641.992245463.8464037480200.739253691035891643515230DRYL
2025-08-25 04:00:04FORECAST20253385368.3653.6961.0250000.390.39FF36.36637.36245463.8464037480200.779255974741211643515160DRYH
2025-08-25 00:00:03FORECAST20253385358.17256.06657.119000.010.290.3FF26.172630.172245463.8464037480200.425374394843311623515225DRYL
2025-08-24 20:00:02FORECAST20253385357.93856.06657.002000.010.350.36FF25.938631.938245463.8464037480200.416770595142721623515225DRYL
2025-08-24 16:00:02FORECAST20253385356.91251.38654.149000.010.260.27FF24.912623.912245463.8464037480200.379566587869271623515225DRYL
2025-08-24 12:00:03FORECAST20253385350.57645.548.0380000.220.22FF18.576608.576245463.8464037480200.183427068185371613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-24 08:00:04FORECAST20253385350.57645.548.0380000.20.2FF18.576602.576245463.8464037480200.183427068185371613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-24 04:00:04FORECAST20253385345.69843.744.69900.0228346580.4728346580.210.682834658FF13.698583.698245463.8464037480200.0866741338403641613425240DRYM