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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, August 31, 2025

[ Saturday, August 30, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, September 1, 2025 ]

DAY 335 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/01/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 70.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 59.44°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 64.72°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.845
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 38
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 635

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.85 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.85 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 242
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 462.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 50

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-09-01 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253355069.9999859.4399264.719950002.852.85FF37.99998634.99998242462.30944875246 00.8451803295059216 43515160DRYH
2025-09-01 00:00:02FORECAST20253355063.2351.09857.1640002.852.85FF31.23628.23242462.3094487524600.646794576919641633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-31 12:00:01FORECAST20253355063.82451.99857.9110002.852.85FF31.824628.824242462.3094487524600.667405165362581633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-31 08:00:01FORECAST20253355066.03851.67458.8560002.852.85FF34.038631.038242462.3094487524600.73949539938421643515230DRYL
2025-08-31 04:00:02FORECAST20253355065.55251.6258.5860002.852.85FF33.552630.552242462.3094487524600.724380107012031643515230DRYL
2025-08-31 00:00:02FORECAST20253355067.22651.90859.5670002.852.85FF35.226628.226242462.3094487524600.774565682019411643515230DRYL
2025-08-30 20:00:01FORECAST20253355067.06451.85459.4590002.852.85FF35.064628.064242462.3094487524600.769946276215831643515230DRYL
2025-08-30 16:00:02FORECAST20253355066.75852.4359.5940002.852.85FF34.758627.758242462.3094487524600.761078164566511643515230DRYL
2025-08-30 12:00:01FORECAST20253355066.4753.0659.7650002.852.85FF34.47627.47242462.3094487524600.752564068516751643515230DRYL
2025-08-30 08:00:02FORECAST20253355066.39853.47459.9360002.852.85FF34.398628.398242462.3094487524600.750410526912841643515230DRYL
2025-08-30 04:00:03FORECAST20253355066.14654.1460.1430002.852.85FF34.146628.146242462.3094487524600.742795514821541643515230DRYL
2025-08-30 00:00:02FORECAST20253355066.2953.3359.8100.0015748040.0015748042.852.851574804FF34.29622.29242462.3094487524600.747161665426031643515230DRYL
2025-08-29 20:00:01FORECAST20253355066.68653.11459.90002.852.85FF34.686623.686242462.3094487524600.758964753315521643515230DRYL
2025-08-29 16:00:01FORECAST20253355067.13653.27660.20600.0007874020.0007874022.852.850787402FF35.136624.136242462.3094487524600.772005844057171643515230DRYL
2025-08-29 12:00:01FORECAST20253355066.79453.13259.96300.0047244120.0047244122.852.854724412FF34.794623.794242462.3094487524600.76213106415841643515230DRYL
2025-08-29 08:00:01FORECAST20253355067.33452.89860.1160002.852.85FF35.334625.334242462.3094487524600.777615936082321643515230DRYL
2025-08-29 04:00:02FORECAST20253355066.2952.44859.36900.0059055150.0059055152.852.855905515FF34.29623.29242462.3094487524600.747161665426031643515230DRYL
2025-08-29 00:00:02FORECAST20253355067.8254.17660.99800.0342519870.0342519872.842.874251987FF35.82617.82242462.3094487524600.791047775193051643515230DRYL
2025-08-28 20:00:02FORECAST20253355068.37854.98661.68200.0468504190.0468504192.852.896850419FF36.378618.378242462.3094487524600.805865711172651643515160DRYH
2025-08-28 16:00:02FORECAST20253355067.76653.97860.87200.027559070.027559072.852.87755907FF35.766618.766242462.3094487524600.789579330715661643515230DRYL
2025-08-28 12:00:01FORECAST20253355066.45252.32259.38700.0106299270.0206299272.852.870629927FF34.452618.452242462.3094487524600.752026614362541643515230DRYL
2025-08-28 08:00:01FORECAST20253355064.27451.63857.95600.0515748310.0615748312.872.931574831FF32.274614.274242462.3094487524600.682693309033471633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-28 04:00:03FORECAST20253355064.23851.54857.89300.0704724790.0904724792.882.970472479FF32.238616.238242462.3094487524600.681481212326781633525255DRYH
2025-08-28 00:00:02FORECAST20253355063.19450.39656.79500.0244094620.0944094622.882.974409462FF31.194607.194242462.3094487524600.645530754661681633525255DRYH
2025-08-27 20:00:02FORECAST20253355062.67249.1955.93100.0212598540.1012598542.862.961259854FF30.672610.672242462.3094487524600.627031575509491633525255DRYH
2025-08-27 16:00:01FORECAST20253355061.89848.95655.42700.0212598540.1112598542.862.971259854FF29.898607.898242462.3094487524600.599066251901521633525255DRYH
2025-08-27 12:00:02FORECAST20253355059.01846.23852.62800.0366141930.0766141932.852.926614193FF27.018607.018242462.3094487524600.491639540038891623515225DRYL
2025-08-27 08:00:01FORECAST20253355059.86447.13853.50100.0366141930.0666141932.862.926614193FF27.864607.864242462.3094487524600.523487805907561633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-27 04:00:03FORECAST20253355057.54245.91451.72800.0366141930.0766141932.892.966614193FF25.542599.542242462.3094487524600.43632192266491623515225DRYL
2025-08-27 00:00:02FORECAST20253355055.86843.82649.84700.0114173290.1714173292.833.001417329FF23.868592.868242462.3094487524600.375114600707141623425245DRYM
2025-08-26 20:00:02FORECAST20253355055.00443.08849.04600.0114173290.1714173292.953.121417329FF23.004590.004242462.3094487524600.344613202858461623425245DRYM
2025-08-26 16:00:02FORECAST20253355055.3143.39449.35200.0114173290.1714173292.943.111417329FF23.31595.31242462.3094487524600.355312685153351623425245DRYM
2025-08-26 12:00:02FORECAST20253355054.21244.76249.48700.1566929980.2166929983.033.246692998FF22.212593.212242462.3094487524600.317508571634381623425245DRYM
2025-08-26 08:00:02FORECAST20253355055.59844.20449.90100.1566929980.2166929983.043.256692998FF23.598594.598242462.3094487524600.36548818692711623425245DRYM
2025-08-26 04:00:04FORECAST20253355055.25644.18649.72100.1677166260.2377166263.13.337716626FF23.256591.256242462.3094487524600.353415948232621623425245DRYM
2025-08-26 00:00:02FORECAST20253355060.38646.16653.276000.022.983FF28.386588.386242462.3094487524600.543077158832271633415225DRYL
2025-08-25 20:00:01FORECAST20253355060.83646.72453.78000.022.983FF28.836590.836242462.3094487524600.559882673367141633415225DRYL
2025-08-25 16:00:02FORECAST20253355059.86447.24653.55500.0181102460.04811024633.048110246FF27.864594.864242462.3094487524600.523487805907561633415225DRYL
2025-08-25 12:00:02FORECAST2025335505945.552.2500.0484252230.1184252232.943.058425223FF27595242462.3094487524600.490961776546641623425245DRYM
2025-08-25 08:00:02FORECAST20253355061.80847.06654.43700.0484252230.1184252232.993.108425223FF29.808599.808242462.3094487524600.595778205918261633525255DRYH
2025-08-25 04:00:04FORECAST20253355061.64646.47254.05900.0488189240.0588189243.113.168818924FF29.646594.646242462.3094487524600.589842792362161633415225DRYL
2025-08-25 00:00:02FORECAST20253355065.42647.46256.44400.0555118410.0955118412.973.065511841FF33.426594.426242462.3094487524600.720392182146551643425255DRYH
2025-08-24 20:00:02FORECAST20253355065.2147.24656.22800.0555118410.0955118413.033.125511841FF33.21597.21242462.3094487524600.713491339949761643425255DRYH
2025-08-24 16:00:02FORECAST20253355065.40847.19256.300.0594488510.0694488512.973.039448851FF33.408594.408242462.3094487524600.71982020295541643415227.5DRYL
2025-08-24 12:00:02FORECAST20253355067.74851.06259.40500.0224409570.0824409572.923.002440957FF35.748594.748242462.3094487524600.789088508874771643415227.5DRYL
2025-08-24 08:00:03FORECAST20253355063.89646.32855.11200.0224409570.0824409572.92.982440957FF31.896588.896242462.3094487524600.66987090109781633415225DRYL
2025-08-24 04:00:04FORECAST20253355062.29445.6853.98700.0212598540.0812598542.912.991259854FF30.294587.294242462.3094487524600.613447514362681633415225DRYL
2025-08-24 00:00:02FORECAST20253355064.36448.9256.64200.0055118140.2955118142.853.145511814FF32.364575.364242462.3094487524600.685714975510851633425250DRYMH
2025-08-23 20:00:02FORECAST20253355064.36447.73256.04800.0055118140.2955118142.863.155511814FF32.364578.364242462.3094487524600.685714975510851633425250DRYMH
2025-08-23 16:00:02FORECAST20253355063.5948.97456.28200.0019685050.0719685052.912.981968505FF31.59579.59242462.3094487524600.659341874460511633415225DRYL
2025-08-23 12:00:03FORECAST20253355067.04653.61860.332000.032.812.84FF35.046592.046242462.3094487524600.769429765119011643415227.5DRYL
2025-08-23 08:00:02FORECAST20253355067.04653.61860.332000.032.812.84FF35.046595.046242462.3094487524600.769429765119011643415227.5DRYL
2025-08-23 04:00:04FORECAST20253355066.50653.40259.954000.032.822.85FF34.506599.506242462.3094487524600.753637109356391643515230DRYL
2025-08-23 00:00:03FORECAST20253355067.96449.17258.568000.012.862.87FF35.964587.964242462.3094487524600.794934054509621643415227.5DRYL
2025-08-22 20:00:03FORECAST20253355067.74848.95658.352000.012.872.88FF35.748590.748242462.3094487524600.789088508874771643415227.5DRYL
2025-08-22 16:00:02FORECAST20253355069.24249.78459.513000.012.872.88FF37.242590.242242462.3094487524600.827509987346611643415155DRYH
2025-08-22 12:00:02FORECAST20253355063.84235.45649.64900.1586615030.3986615032.823.218661503FF31.842586.842242462.3094487524600.668022283449381633425250DRYMH
2025-08-22 08:00:02FORECAST20253355063.69841.57652.63700.1586615030.3986615032.823.218661503FF31.698582.698242462.3094487524600.663072716557531633425250DRYMH
2025-08-22 04:00:05FORECAST20253355065.49845.06855.28300.1350394430.1950394432.823.015039443FF33.498594.498242462.3094487524600.72267442055221643425255DRYH
2025-08-22 00:00:03FORECAST20253355053.3344.11448.722000.122.792.91FF21.33585.33242462.3094487524600.288439786653251623425245DRYM
2025-08-21 20:00:02FORECAST20253355053.29446.74250.018000.122.792.91FF21.294592.294242462.3094487524600.28728037515441623425245DRYM
2025-08-21 16:00:03FORECAST20253355053.72649.44251.584000.122.792.91FF21.726588.726242462.3094487524600.301336344386991623425245DRYM
2025-08-21 12:00:02FORECAST20253355052.53849.65851.098000.032.822.85FF20.538587.538242462.3094487524600.263456208803761623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-21 08:00:03FORECAST20253355052.53849.65851.098000.032.822.85FF20.538589.538242462.3094487524600.263456208803761623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-21 04:00:07FORECAST20253355050.97249.33450.153000.032.822.85FF18.972587.972242462.3094487524600.217519538855471613415220DRYL