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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 29, 2025

[ Thursday, August 28, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, August 30, 2025 ]

DAY 333 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/30/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 71.92°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 57.07°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 64.50°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.846
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 40
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 639

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.85 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 240
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 461.28 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 48

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-30 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253334871.9200457.0700464.49504000.062.792.85FF39.92004638.92004240461.27503476881 00.846340265827116 43515160DRYH
2025-08-30 00:00:02FORECAST20253334864.50849.1956.849000.062.792.85FF32.508631.508240461.2750347688100.608342420510491633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-29 12:00:01FORECAST20253334864.74249.33457.038000.062.792.85FF32.742631.742240461.2750347688100.617355612143721633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-29 08:00:01FORECAST20253334865.58848.97457.281000.062.792.85FF33.588632.588240461.2750347688100.649383065519141633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-29 04:00:02FORECAST20253334864.99447.91256.453000.062.792.85FF32.994631.994240461.2750347688100.626991429248151633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-29 00:00:02FORECAST20253334865.85848.90257.38000.052.792.84FF33.858624.858240461.2750347688100.659397450169791633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-28 20:00:01FORECAST20253334865.85850.32458.091000.062.792.85FF33.858624.858240461.2750347688100.659397450169791633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-28 16:00:01FORECAST20253334866.21850.8158.514000.062.792.85FF34.218625.218240461.2750347688100.672576163743641633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-28 12:00:01FORECAST20253334866.77651.92659.351000.062.792.85FF34.776625.776240461.2750347688100.692580366179521633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-28 08:00:01FORECAST20253334866.1150.93658.523000.082.792.87FF34.11625.11240461.2750347688100.66864413013551633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-28 04:00:02FORECAST20253334867.31651.65659.486000.092.792.88FF35.316627.316240461.2750347688100.711409823039761643515230DRYL
2025-08-28 00:00:02FORECAST20253334866.97451.78259.378000.092.792.88FF34.974620.974240461.2750347688100.699547223005581643515230DRYL
2025-08-27 20:00:02FORECAST20253334868.57652.0760.323000.072.792.86FF36.576624.576240461.2750347688100.753102834285451643515160DRYH
2025-08-27 16:00:01FORECAST20253334867.96451.9859.972000.072.792.86FF35.964622.964240461.2750347688100.733261372309341643515230DRYL
2025-08-27 12:00:02FORECAST20253334867.87452.1660.017000.062.792.85FF35.874624.874240461.2750347688100.730277072456451643515230DRYL
2025-08-27 08:00:01FORECAST20253334867.24452.08859.666000.072.792.86FF35.244625.244240461.2750347688100.708930821272881643515230DRYL
2025-08-27 04:00:02FORECAST20253334867.35251.7159.531000.12.792.89FF35.352620.352240461.2750347688100.712645586620651643525260DRYH
2025-08-27 00:00:02FORECAST20253334868.07251.36859.72000.042.792.83FF36.072616.072240461.2750347688100.736820396883841643515160DRYH
2025-08-26 20:00:02FORECAST20253334867.96451.0859.522000.12.852.95FF35.964614.964240461.2750347688100.733261372309341643525260DRYH
2025-08-26 16:00:02FORECAST20253334868.79250.91859.855000.092.852.94FF36.792618.792240461.2750347688100.759912552651861643515160DRYH
2025-08-26 12:00:02FORECAST20253334867.6450.79259.216000.182.853.03FF35.64616.64240461.2750347688100.722440551200071643525260DRYH
2025-08-26 08:00:01FORECAST20253334867.83850.61259.225000.232.813.04FF35.838616.838240461.2750347688100.729078693558541643525260DRYH
2025-08-26 04:00:04FORECAST20253334867.31650.32458.82000.262.843.1FF35.316615.316240461.2750347688100.711409823039761643525260DRYH
2025-08-26 00:00:02FORECAST20253334868.2751.22459.747000.152.832.98FF36.27610.27240461.2750347688100.7432817596082816435251120DRYVH
2025-08-25 20:00:01FORECAST20253334867.49651.65659.576000.182.82.98FF35.496611.496240461.2750347688100.717563467421361643525260DRYH
2025-08-25 16:00:01FORECAST20253334868.01851.67459.846000.22.83FF36.018613.018240461.2750347688100.7350439172671716435251120DRYVH
2025-08-25 12:00:02FORECAST20253334867.83852.32260.08000.112.832.94FF35.838614.838240461.2750347688100.729078693558541643525260DRYH
2025-08-25 08:00:02FORECAST20253334868.34252.50260.422000.162.832.99FF36.342616.342240461.2750347688100.7456107298321416435251120DRYVH
2025-08-25 04:00:03FORECAST20253334866.16451.78258.973000.242.873.11FF34.164611.164240461.2750347688100.670612503680671633525255DRYH
2025-08-25 00:00:02FORECAST20253334866.52452.14259.33300.031496080.161496082.843.00149608FF34.524607.524240461.2750347688100.683612319742321633525255DRYH
2025-08-24 20:00:01FORECAST20253334865.6650.9958.32500.031496080.231496082.833.06149608FF33.66610.66240461.2750347688100.652064080352851633525255DRYH
2025-08-24 16:00:02FORECAST20253334864.9451.13458.03700.007874020.167874022.812.97787402FF32.94607.94240461.2750347688100.624933053968291633525255DRYH
2025-08-24 12:00:02FORECAST20253334864.47250.68457.57800.0188976480.1188976482.822.938897648FF32.472605.472240461.2750347688100.606950465516151633525255DRYH
2025-08-24 08:00:02FORECAST20253334862.54648.255.37300.0188976480.0988976482.822.918897648FF30.546603.546240461.2750347688100.530932963800751633525255DRYH
2025-08-24 04:00:04FORECAST20253334863.12249.22656.17400.0244094620.1144094622.822.934409462FF31.122604.122240461.2750347688100.553916793012991633525255DRYH
2025-08-24 00:00:02FORECAST20253334859.73848.23653.98700.2066930250.2566930252.83.056693025FF27.738592.738240461.2750347688100.418832202547611623425245DRYM
2025-08-23 20:00:02FORECAST20253334859.95448.03853.99600.2066930250.2566930252.813.066693025FF27.954594.954240461.2750347688100.427339647584551623425245DRYM
2025-08-23 16:00:02FORECAST20253334860.15248.30854.2300.059055150.149055152.822.96905515FF28.152597.152240461.2750347688100.435168032897671623425245DRYM
2025-08-23 12:00:02FORECAST20253334860.3549.22654.78800.0007874020.0107874022.82.810787402FF28.35599.35240461.2750347688100.443021910345521623515225DRYL
2025-08-23 08:00:02FORECAST20253334860.42250.66655.54400.0007874020.0107874022.82.810787402FF28.422604.422240461.2750347688100.445883592792461623515225DRYL
2025-08-23 04:00:04FORECAST20253334859.97250.10855.0400.0007874020.0107874022.812.820787402FF27.972608.972240461.2750347688100.428050186155961623515225DRYL
2025-08-23 00:00:02FORECAST20253334861.2549.60455.42700.0082677210.0182677212.852.868267721FF29.25601.25240461.2750347688100.478958384155061623515225DRYL
2025-08-22 20:00:02FORECAST20253334860.13448.81254.47300.0086614220.0186614222.862.878661422FF28.134603.134240461.2750347688100.434455262629631623515225DRYL
2025-08-22 16:00:02FORECAST20253334857.79448.23653.01500.0082677210.0282677212.852.878267721FF25.794600.794240461.2750347688100.344409355836911623515225DRYL
2025-08-22 12:00:02FORECAST20253334855.79648.86652.33100.0889764260.1089764262.82.908976426FF23.796602.796240461.2750347688100.273760643151851623525250DRYMH
2025-08-22 08:00:02FORECAST20253334857.16445.46451.31400.0889764260.1089764262.82.908976426FF25.164600.164240461.2750347688100.321380654058111623525250DRYMH
2025-08-22 04:00:04FORECAST20253334861.6147.10254.35600.0614173560.0814173562.82.881417356FF29.61606.61240461.2750347688100.493397643913881623515225DRYL
2025-08-22 00:00:03FORECAST20253334866.57848.75857.66800.0618110570.0618110572.792.851811057FF34.578608.578240461.2750347688100.685543389432991633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-21 20:00:02FORECAST20253334867.22653.65460.4400.0622047580.0622047582.792.852204758FF35.226616.226240461.2750347688100.70830952181021643515230DRYL
2025-08-21 16:00:03FORECAST20253334867.89253.5160.70100.0625984590.0625984592.792.852598459FF35.892611.892240461.2750347688100.730875265986111643515230DRYL
2025-08-21 12:00:02FORECAST20253334866.99252.30459.64800.0259842660.0459842662.82.845984266FF34.992608.992240461.2750347688100.700177025787721643515230DRYL
2025-08-21 08:00:03FORECAST20253334866.99252.30459.64800.0259842660.0459842662.82.845984266FF34.992610.992240461.2750347688100.700177025787721643515230DRYL
2025-08-21 04:00:07FORECAST20253334867.5552.37659.96300.0259842660.0459842662.82.845984266FF35.55611.55240461.2750347688100.719397191437061643515230DRYL
2025-08-21 00:00:03FORECAST20253334857.8344.3351.08000.082.782.86FF25.83591.83240461.2750347688100.345743892194741623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-20 20:00:04FORECAST20253334857.12842.94450.036000.082.782.86FF25.128585.128240461.2750347688100.320084181136241623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-20 16:00:02FORECAST20253334859.12643.82651.476000.032.792.82FF27.126588.126240461.2750347688100.394945575950321623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-20 12:00:03FORECAST20253334856.04837.77846.91300.059055150.119055152.792.90905515FF24.048589.048240461.2750347688100.282265835052191623425245DRYM
2025-08-20 08:00:03FORECAST20253334856.04837.77846.91300.059055150.119055152.792.90905515FF24.048593.048240461.2750347688100.282265835052191623425245DRYM
2025-08-20 04:00:04FORECAST20253334855.43638.6647.04800.0759842930.2059842932.792.995984293FF23.436579.436240461.2750347688100.261834222441791623425245DRYM
2025-08-20 00:00:03FORECAST20253334848.36236.3242.34100.1145669910.1545669912.792.944566991FF16.362562.362240461.2750347688100.0885107315201681613425240DRYM
2025-08-19 20:00:02FORECAST20253334850.07236.3243.19600.1145669910.1545669912.792.944566991FF18.072573.072240461.2750347688100.119464976208141613425240DRYM
2025-08-19 16:00:02FORECAST20253334851.38638.96645.17600.0948819410.2348819412.783.014881941FF19.386575.386240461.2750347688100.147935669171951613425240DRYM
2025-08-19 12:00:03FORECAST20253334845.24840.42442.8360002.782.78FF13.248562.248240461.2750347688100.0480421952604761613415220DRYL
2025-08-19 08:00:03FORECAST20253334845.24840.42442.8360002.782.78FF13.248567.248240461.2750347688100.0480421952604761613415220DRYL
2025-08-19 04:00:04FORECAST20253334858.11855.77856.9480002.782.78FF26.118589.118240461.2750347688100.356487994961781623415222.5DRYL