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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, August 28, 2025

[ Wednesday, August 27, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, August 29, 2025 ]

DAY 332 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/29/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 69.92°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 54.41°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 62.17°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.788
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 38
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 645

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.85 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 239
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 460.75 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 47

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-29 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253324769.9200654.4162.1650300.00999999999999090.0599999999999912.792.85FF37.92006644.92006239460.75487221801 00.7882032621247616 43515160DRYH
2025-08-29 00:00:02FORECAST20253324762.27647.9355.10300.0019685050.0519685052.792.841968505FF30.276637.276239460.7548722180100.528358731921231633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-28 12:00:01FORECAST20253324762.22247.98455.10300.0090551230.0590551232.792.849055123FF30.222637.222239460.7548722180100.526309049732651633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-28 08:00:01FORECAST20253324761.98846.5854.28400.0255905650.0755905652.792.865590565FF29.988636.988239460.7548722180100.517419738286481633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-28 04:00:02FORECAST20253324763.10446.59854.85100.0421260070.0921260072.792.882126007FF31.104638.104239460.7548722180100.559660989679881633525255DRYH
2025-08-28 00:00:02FORECAST20253324763.75246.36455.05800.0303149770.0903149772.792.880314977FF31.752631.752239460.7548722180100.583910790842851633525255DRYH
2025-08-27 20:00:01FORECAST20253324764.43648.6556.54300.0192913490.0692913492.792.859291349FF32.436634.436239460.7548722180100.609163950960221633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-27 16:00:01FORECAST20253324763.4150.01856.71400.0185039470.0685039472.792.858503947FF31.41633.41239460.7548722180100.571145977315171633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-27 12:00:02FORECAST20253324764.70650.3657.53300.0059055150.0559055152.792.845905515FF32.706634.706239460.7548722180100.619013262599281633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-27 08:00:01FORECAST20253324765.04850.55857.80300.007874020.067874022.792.85787402FF33.048636.048239460.7548722180100.631378506348961633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-27 04:00:02FORECAST20253324762.4250.7256.5700.0350393890.0950393892.792.885039389FF30.42631.42239460.7548722180100.533820733643351633525255DRYH
2025-08-27 00:00:02FORECAST20253324763.550.6357.06500.023622060.043622062.792.83362206FF31.5625.5239460.7548722180100.574512932837281633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-26 20:00:02FORECAST20253324763.71650.5457.12800.0610236550.1610236552.792.951023655FF31.716624.716239460.7548722180100.582571041265931633525255DRYH
2025-08-26 16:00:02FORECAST20253324764.77850.88257.8300.0421260070.1521260072.792.942126007FF32.778627.778239460.7548722180100.62162707086671633525255DRYH
2025-08-26 12:00:01FORECAST20253324764.18450.10857.14600.1318898350.2418898352.793.031889835FF32.184627.184239460.7548722180100.599907518720861633525255DRYH
2025-08-26 08:00:01FORECAST20253324763.69850.4557.07400.1374016490.2474016492.793.037401649FF31.698626.698239460.7548722180100.581900805866611633525255DRYH
2025-08-26 04:00:04FORECAST20253324763.78850.01856.90300.1366142470.3066142472.793.096614247FF31.788625.788239460.7548722180100.585249566221971633525255DRYH
2025-08-26 00:00:01FORECAST20253324765.31850.34257.8300.0858268180.1858268182.792.975826818FF33.318620.318239460.7548722180100.641046099446451633525255DRYH
2025-08-25 20:00:01FORECAST20253324766.07450.37858.22600.0712598810.1912598812.792.981259881FF34.074622.074239460.7548722180100.667622109593851633525255DRYH
2025-08-25 16:00:01FORECAST20253324766.05650.10858.08200.0322834820.2122834822.793.002283482FF34.056623.056239460.7548722180100.666998400219061633525255DRYH
2025-08-25 12:00:01FORECAST20253324765.60651.90858.75700.023622060.153622062.792.94362206FF33.606624.606239460.7548722180100.651259452621321633525255DRYH
2025-08-25 08:00:02FORECAST20253324765.6651.74658.70300.0582677480.1982677482.792.988267748FF33.66625.66239460.7548722180100.653162583818741633525255DRYH
2025-08-25 04:00:03FORECAST20253324763.46451.36857.41600.188976480.318976482.793.10897648FF31.464623.464239460.7548722180100.573166788153961633525255DRYH
2025-08-25 00:00:02FORECAST20253324763.4152.39457.90200.0724409840.1824409842.792.972440984FF31.41619.41239460.7548722180100.571145977315171633525255DRYH
2025-08-24 20:00:01FORECAST20253324764.6752.62858.64900.1149606920.2449606922.793.034960692FF32.67622.67239460.7548722180100.617704311456471633525255DRYH
2025-08-24 16:00:02FORECAST20253324764.11251.36857.7400.0488189240.1788189242.792.968818924FF32.112621.112239460.7548722180100.597252233722481633525255DRYH
2025-08-24 12:00:02FORECAST20253324763.552.93458.21700.047244120.127244122.792.91724412FF31.5618.5239460.7548722180100.574512932837281633525255DRYH
2025-08-24 08:00:02FORECAST20253324763.19452.82658.0100.047244120.107244122.792.89724412FF31.194619.194239460.7548722180100.56304458898721633525255DRYH
2025-08-24 04:00:03FORECAST20253324762.3352.757.51500.051181130.121181132.792.91118113FF30.33619.33239460.7548722180100.530407663285281633525255DRYH
2025-08-24 00:00:02FORECAST20253324762.18650.30656.24600.0082677210.0582677212.792.848267721FF30.186611.186239460.7548722180100.524942204529911633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-23 20:00:01FORECAST20253324762.83449.92856.38100.0082677210.0682677212.792.858267721FF30.834612.834239460.7548722180100.54948499823131633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-23 16:00:02FORECAST20253324762.36649.9156.13800.0295275750.1195275752.792.909527575FF30.366615.366239460.7548722180100.53177317371361633525255DRYH
2025-08-23 12:00:02FORECAST20253324764.47252.53858.50500.0059055150.0159055152.792.805905515FF32.472617.472239460.7548722180100.610481398524061633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-23 08:00:02FORECAST20253324765.31852.62858.97300.0059055150.0159055152.792.805905515FF33.318622.318239460.7548722180100.641046099446451633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-23 04:00:04FORECAST20253324765.60652.73659.17100.0059055150.0259055152.792.815905515FF33.606626.606239460.7548722180100.651259452621321633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-23 00:00:02FORECAST20253324765.8453.27659.558000.072.792.86FF33.84617.84239460.7548722180100.659478280291861633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-22 20:00:02FORECAST20253324765.33653.13259.234000.082.792.87FF33.336621.336239460.7548722180100.64168748588721633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-22 16:00:02FORECAST20253324764.45452.8858.667000.082.792.87FF32.454621.454239460.7548722180100.609822832360871633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-22 12:00:01FORECAST20253324764.43652.19658.31600.0133858340.0333858342.792.823385834FF32.436625.436239460.7548722180100.609163950960221633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-22 08:00:02FORECAST20253324764.07650.70257.38900.0133858340.0333858342.792.823385834FF32.076621.076239460.7548722180100.595922899225991633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-22 04:00:04FORECAST20253324764.8552.23258.54100.0055118140.0255118142.792.815511814FF32.85622.85239460.7548722180100.624235327554421633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-22 00:00:03FORECAST20253324766.43452.6159.5220002.792.79FF34.434620.434239460.7548722180100.679997003929761633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-21 20:00:02FORECAST20253324769.20654.64461.9250002.792.79FF37.206627.206239460.7548722180100.767941404406461643515160DRYH
2025-08-21 16:00:03FORECAST20253324768.5453.74461.1420002.792.79FF36.54621.54239460.7548722180100.748110554474861643515160DRYH
2025-08-21 12:00:02FORECAST20253324768.01854.21261.11500.0141732360.0341732362.792.824173236FF36.018620.018239460.7548722180100.731964755299851643515160DRYH
2025-08-21 08:00:03FORECAST20253324767.08254.21260.64700.0141732360.0341732362.792.824173236FF35.082622.082239460.7548722180100.701768106349071643515230DRYL
2025-08-21 04:00:06FORECAST20253324766.7452.71859.72900.0094488240.0294488242.792.819448824FF34.74621.74239460.7548722180100.690361246919221633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-21 00:00:03FORECAST20253324761.23248.59654.91400.0645669640.0845669642.782.864566964FF29.232612.232239460.7548722180100.488663681778361623515225DRYL
2025-08-20 20:00:04FORECAST20253324760.56646.97653.77100.0645669640.0845669642.782.864566964FF28.566605.566239460.7548722180100.463374814964811623515225DRYL
2025-08-20 16:00:02FORECAST20253324763.39248.41655.90400.007874020.037874022.782.81787402FF31.392607.392239460.7548722180100.570471956357821633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-20 12:00:03FORECAST20253324766.251.67458.93700.031496080.061496082.792.85149608FF34.2611.2239460.7548722180100.671975013781633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-20 08:00:03FORECAST20253324766.251.67458.93700.031496080.061496082.792.85149608FF34.2615.2239460.7548722180100.671975013781633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-20 04:00:04FORECAST20253324763.21250.95457.08300.1165354960.1265354962.792.916535496FF31.212602.212239460.7548722180100.56372076399811633525255DRYH
2025-08-20 00:00:02FORECAST20253324762.1549.2855.71500.0448819140.0448819142.792.834881914FF30.15592.15239460.7548722180100.523575065715261633415225DRYL
2025-08-19 20:00:02FORECAST20253324764.09450.9957.54200.0448819140.0448819142.792.834881914FF32.094601.094239460.7548722180100.596587705942951633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-19 16:00:02FORECAST20253324765.60652.14258.87400.137795350.137795352.782.91779535FF33.606601.606239460.7548722180100.651259452621321633525255DRYH
2025-08-19 12:00:02FORECAST20253324763.26646.454.8330002.782.78FF31.266595.266239460.7548722180100.565748164372311633415225DRYL
2025-08-19 08:00:03FORECAST20253324763.37446.454.8870002.782.78FF31.374600.374239460.7548722180100.569797729930541633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-19 04:00:04FORECAST20253324770.01654.2362.1230002.782.78FF38.016609.016239460.7548722180100.790844596951911643515160DRYH
2025-08-19 00:00:02FORECAST20253324756.10253.22254.6620002.782.78FF24.102578.102239460.7548722180100.302345623462941623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-18 20:00:03FORECAST20253324755.70653.81654.7610002.782.78FF23.706565.706239460.7548722180100.289298652437191623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-18 16:00:03FORECAST20253324755.18453.02454.1040002.782.78FF23.184566.184239460.7548722180100.272515723705171623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-18 12:00:02FORECAST20253324758.78456.53457.6590002.782.78FF26.784561.784239460.7548722180100.396706341078211623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-18 08:00:03FORECAST20253324758.78456.53457.6590002.782.78FF26.784555.784239460.7548722180100.396706341078211623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-18 04:00:05FORECAST20253324757.05655.11256.0840002.782.78FF25.056556.056239460.7548722180100.3348060168871623415222.5DRYL